Reality Check?

[Snowball]

The BFTG thread on Burton/Bristol has some talking about a reality check. Whether winning against a decent side who were top six early on is "great" good, or OK, the your pick, but I thought I would check who we are beating, drawing with, losing to, and (if you ignore we are getting better every game) the figures are illuminating

1-4 Newcastle (A)
2-2 Brighton (H)
0-0 Birmingham (H)
?-? Leeds
1-0 Huddersfield (H)
?-? Wednesday
?-? Norwich
1-1 Derby (H)
?-? Fulham
1-2 Villa (H)
=================================
1-0 Preston (H)
2-1 Bristol (H)
2-1 Ipswich (H)
1-1 QPR (A)
1-4 Brentford (A)
2-0 Forest (H)
2-1 Barnsley (A)
3-0 Burton (H)
?-? Blackburn (A)
0-2 Wolves (A)
3-0 Wigan (A)
1-0 Cardiff (A)
1-0 Rotherham (A)

That is just one win against teams from the current top 11

9 of our 10 league wins are against the bottom 13.

Mind you, as things stand we also can say we have only had one defeat by a team from the top ten. (2/11)

Clearly, the games against Leeds, Norwich, Fulham and Wednesday will be revealing. If we avoid defeat in these, or lose just once

[SCIAG]

Is this illuminating or just exactly what you'd expect? We've beaten the weaker teams and drawn with the better ones.

Obviously we don't know how things will go from here, particularly against those four top-half teams we haven't played, but our record against the top half teams suggests we'll win about as often as we lose and draw most of the time. Based on that, I think we should expect to finish 5th or 6th if we maintain our form.

[Hendo]

Is this illuminating or just exactly what you'd expect? We've beaten the weaker teams and drawn with the better ones.

Obviously we don't know how things will go from here, particularly against those four top-half teams we haven't played, but our record against the top half teams suggests we'll win about as often as we lose and draw most of the time. Based on that, I think we should expect to finish 5th or 6th if we maintain our form.

Reading teams have been known to struggle against perceived weaker opposition in the past, so being capable of beating the teams towards to bottom of the league is quite reassuring.

[muirinho]

The BFTG thread on Burton/Bristol has some talking about a reality check. Whether winning against a decent side who were top six early on is "great" good, or OK, the your pick, but I thought I would check who we are beating, drawing with, losing to, and (if you ignore we are getting better every game) the figures are illuminating

1-4 Newcastle (A)
2-2 Brighton (H)
0-0 Birmingham (H)
?-? Leeds
1-0 Huddersfield (H)
?-? Wednesday
?-? Norwich
1-1 Derby (H)
?-? Fulham
1-2 Villa (H)
=================================
1-0 Preston (H)
2-1 Bristol (H)
2-1 Ipswich (H)
1-1 QPR (A)
1-4 Brentford (A)
2-0 Forest (H)
2-1 Barnsley (A)
3-0 Burton (H)
?-? Blackburn (A)
0-2 Wolves (A)
3-0 Wigan (A)
1-0 Cardiff (A)
1-0 Rotherham (A)

That is just one win against teams from the current top 11

9 of our 10 league wins are against the bottom 13.

Mind you, as things stand we also can say we have only had one defeat by a team from the top ten. (2/11)

Clearly, the games against Leeds, Norwich, Fulham and Wednesday will be revealing. If we avoid defeat in these, or lose just once

It would be interesting to see that re-done based on the position of the team played at the time of the game. Bristol for instance were 10th when we played them, so would be top half rather than bottom half. Huddersfield were top when we played them, Barnsley were third I think when we played them. So as well as being able to beat teams on a bad run (except for Villa and Newcastle), we've also been able to beat teams that were flying high and full of confidence.

[Hendo]

Add Wolves to that list. They have dropped like a stone since the first few games of the season.

[dean horrix legend]

Barnsley were 3rd when we beat them, having just won 3 on the bounce.

[Hendo]

Barnsley were 3rd when we beat them, having just won 3 on the bounce.

Very true, I don't think they have won a game at home since we beat them.

[CountryRoyal]

The BFTG thread on Burton/Bristol has some talking about a reality check. Whether winning against a decent side who were top six early on is "great" good, or OK, the your pick, but I thought I would check who we are beating, drawing with, losing to, and (if you ignore we are getting better every game) the figures are illuminating

1-4 Newcastle (A)
2-2 Brighton (H)
0-0 Birmingham (H)
?-? Leeds
1-0 Huddersfield (H)
?-? Wednesday
?-? Norwich
1-1 Derby (H)
?-? Fulham
1-2 Villa (H)
=================================
1-0 Preston (H)
2-1 Bristol (H)
2-1 Ipswich (H)
1-1 QPR (A)
1-4 Brentford (A)
2-0 Forest (H)
2-1 Barnsley (A)
3-0 Burton (H)
?-? Blackburn (A)
0-2 Wolves (A)
3-0 Wigan (A)
1-0 Cardiff (A)
1-0 Rotherham (A)

That is just one win against teams from the current top 11

9 of our 10 league wins are against the bottom 13.

Mind you, as things stand we also can say we have only had one defeat by a team from the top ten. (2/11)

Clearly, the games against Leeds, Norwich, Fulham and Wednesday will be revealing. If we avoid defeat in these, or lose just once

It would be interesting to see that re-done based on the position of the team played at the time of the game. Bristol for instance were 10th when we played them, so would be top half rather than bottom half. Huddersfield were top when we played them, Barnsley were third I think when we played them. So as well as being able to beat teams on a bad run (except for Villa and Newcastle), we've also been able to beat teams that were flying high and full of confidence.

Exactly. Barnsley were second with a 100% home record when we won at their place, Huddersfield were first iirc.

[Hendo]

It really has been a long day hasn't it CR.....

The BFTG thread on Burton/Bristol has some talking about a reality check. Whether winning against a decent side who were top six early on is "great" good, or OK, the your pick, but I thought I would check who we are beating, drawing with, losing to, and (if you ignore we are getting better every game) the figures are illuminating

1-4 Newcastle (A)
2-2 Brighton (H)
0-0 Birmingham (H)
?-? Leeds
1-0 Huddersfield (H)
?-? Wednesday
?-? Norwich
1-1 Derby (H)
?-? Fulham
1-2 Villa (H)
=================================
1-0 Preston (H)
2-1 Bristol (H)
2-1 Ipswich (H)
1-1 QPR (A)
1-4 Brentford (A)
2-0 Forest (H)
2-1 Barnsley (A)
3-0 Burton (H)
?-? Blackburn (A)
0-2 Wolves (A)
3-0 Wigan (A)
1-0 Cardiff (A)
1-0 Rotherham (A)

That is just one win against teams from the current top 11

9 of our 10 league wins are against the bottom 13.

Mind you, as things stand we also can say we have only had one defeat by a team from the top ten. (2/11)

Clearly, the games against Leeds, Norwich, Fulham and Wednesday will be revealing. If we avoid defeat in these, or lose just once

It would be interesting to see that re-done based on the position of the team played at the time of the game. Bristol for instance were 10th when we played them, so would be top half rather than bottom half. Huddersfield were top when we played them, Barnsley were third I think when we played them. So as well as being able to beat teams on a bad run (except for Villa and Newcastle), we've also been able to beat teams that were flying high and full of confidence.

Exactly. Barnsley were second with a 100% home record when we won at their place, Huddersfield were first iirc.

Follows

Barnsley were 3rd when we beat them, having just won 3 on the bounce.

Very true, I don't think they have won a game at home since we beat them.

[CountryRoyal]

These were the positions of the teams immediately after the result.

Preston (H) W: 1-0 (22nd)
Wolves (A) L: 2-0 (6th)
Newcastle (A) L: 4-1 (17th)
Brighton (H) D: 2-2 (2nd)
Cardiff (A) W: 0-1 (17th)
Ipswich (H) W: 2-1 (13th)
Birmingham (H) D: 0-0 (5th)
Barnsley (A) W: 1-2 (4th)
Huddersfield (H) W: 1-0 (2nd)
Brentford (A) L: 4-1 (4th)
Derby (H) D: 1-1 (20th)
QPR (A) D: 1-1 (14th)
Aston Villa (H) L: 1-2 (17th)
Rotherham (A) W: 0-1 (24th)
Nottingham Forest (H) W: 2-0 (20th)
Wigan (A) W: 0-3 (22nd)
Burton (H) W: 3-0 (20th)
Bristol City (H) W: 2-1 (13th)

The teams we beat had an average position of 15-16th immediately after we played them.

Not as specific as before hand but it will be similar enough and I got half way through when I realised the table displayed were post game and not pre.

[CountryRoyal]

It really has been a long day hasn't it CR.....

It would be interesting to see that re-done based on the position of the team played at the time of the game. Bristol for instance were 10th when we played them, so would be top half rather than bottom half. Huddersfield were top when we played them, Barnsley were third I think when we played them. So as well as being able to beat teams on a bad run (except for Villa and Newcastle), we've also been able to beat teams that were flying high and full of confidence.

Exactly. Barnsley were second with a 100% home record when we won at their place, Huddersfield were first iirc.

Follows

Barnsley were 3rd when we beat them, having just won 3 on the bounce.

Very true, I don't think they have won a game at home since we beat them.

Jesus I'm not doing well am I.

[Ian Royal]

These were the positions of the teams immediately after the result.

Preston (H) W: 1-0 (22nd)
Wolves (A) L: 2-0 (6th)
Newcastle (A) L: 4-1 (17th)
Brighton (H) D: 2-2 (2nd)
Cardiff (A) W: 0-1 (17th)
Ipswich (H) W: 2-1 (13th)
Birmingham (H) D: 0-0 (5th)
Barnsley (A) W: 1-2 (4th)
Huddersfield (H) W: 1-0 (2nd)
Brentford (A) L: 4-1 (4th)
Derby (H) D: 1-1 (20th)
QPR (A) D: 1-1 (14th)
Aston Villa (H) L: 1-2 (17th)
Rotherham (A) W: 0-1 (24th)
Nottingham Forest (H) W: 2-0 (20th)
Wigan (A) W: 0-3 (22nd)
Burton (H) W: 3-0 (20th)
Bristol City (H) W: 2-1 (13th)

The teams we beat had an average position of 15-16th immediately after we played them.

Not as specific as before hand but it will be similar enough and I got half way through when I realised the table displayed were post game and not pre.

Probably worth discounting the first 6-10 teams we played as the league table is meaningless at that point.

You'd really need to run a separate analysis of:
Current position
Position when played
Form when played

And then draw all those elements together. Oh, and probably not any point until we've played everyone.

[Snowball]

By the same token, (where were they when we played them?) Preston are now mid-table but were hopeless at the start of the season when we beat them 1-0.

Surely the best measure of the quality of sides is their CURRENT position?

Two exceptions may be Derby and Villa as they have take a long while to get their act together/new managers, but now look likely to challenge for the POs given time. Norwich, too, have quality players. Don't understand why they are struggling (relatively).


Personally I think the spread of results shows that finally we have learned to beat bottom-half sides
but, as yet, either we aren't good enough to beat top-half sides, OR we go into those games with a
more safety-first attitude.

Nothing to do with the table as posted, but I still don't quite get why every now and then we get some lousy
results 1-4 Newcastle, 1-4 Brentford, 0-2 Wolves

[CountryRoyal]

These were the positions of the teams immediately after the result.

Preston (H) W: 1-0 (22nd)
Wolves (A) L: 2-0 (6th)
Newcastle (A) L: 4-1 (17th)
Brighton (H) D: 2-2 (2nd)
Cardiff (A) W: 0-1 (17th)
Ipswich (H) W: 2-1 (13th)
Birmingham (H) D: 0-0 (5th)
Barnsley (A) W: 1-2 (4th)
Huddersfield (H) W: 1-0 (2nd)
Brentford (A) L: 4-1 (4th)
Derby (H) D: 1-1 (20th)
QPR (A) D: 1-1 (14th)
Aston Villa (H) L: 1-2 (17th)
Rotherham (A) W: 0-1 (24th)
Nottingham Forest (H) W: 2-0 (20th)
Wigan (A) W: 0-3 (22nd)
Burton (H) W: 3-0 (20th)
Bristol City (H) W: 2-1 (13th)

The teams we beat had an average position of 15-16th immediately after we played them.

Not as specific as before hand but it will be similar enough and I got half way through when I realised the table displayed were post game and not pre.

Probably worth discounting the first 6-10 teams we played as the league table is meaningless at that point.

You'd really need to run a separate analysis of:
Current position
Position when played
Form when played

And then draw all those elements together. Oh, and probably not any point until we've played everyone.

Probably worth discounting all of it because in a league where anyone can beat anyone and everyone is of a similar level (bar Newcastle) it's all relatively pointless.

Now that we've established there's no need to attempt to discuss or analyse things let's close the forum.

[Dr_Hfuhruhurr]

Personally I think the spread of results shows that finally we have learned to beat bottom-half sides
but, as yet, either we aren't good enough to beat top-half sides, OR we go into those games with a
more safety-first attitude.

This, really. The teams in Green have been making up the numbers in the Championship (or will do) for years, or are prime relegation candidates. The fact that we are consistently beating them could be a combination of us having the better squad coupled with Stam's tactics being unknown to rival, average, managers. Could be interesting what happens when we play them again. What we COULD see is that our new system gets found out in the next round of games and some of those GREENS become YELLOW or RED next time out.

Nothing to do with the table as posted, but I still don't quite get why every now and then we get some lousy
results 1-4 Newcastle, 1-4 Brentford, 0-2 Wolves

The reason that we cant beat the top teams must be correlated with the fact that the manager is trying to develop a new style of play and that takes priority. Against teams who want the points, this can give a reality check. Plus, of course, some of those teams have big wage players still in them. Talking of which, Fulham next. Of the ones are left, Blackburn are definitely a Green Team and I would say that both Norwich and Fulham match the Yellow/Red profile. Ive always liked Wednesday - they tend to give us a good match and Im surprised they dont vie for promotion more often. The Leeds game should be interesting. Theyve been doing the same as us for a few years - ie absolutely nothing and are also having a slightly surprising year. Whether we go Green/Yellow/Red against a team we seem well matched again could tell us a lot.

I think the fact we've already won 4 away from home (admittedly against fodder) and have only lost 4 times are two quite impressive statistics.

[McDermolenko]

You can only beat what's put in front of you.

[Stockport Royal]

I think we should now drop the use of the words win, lose and draw and results with this new green, red and yellow system.

Although we're coming off a tasty 5 game green streak, i'd take a yellow if you offered it me now for Saturday, but I fear we may replicate last year's red.

[nevo1970]

Its also worth noting that we lost 2 league games in August before Liam Moore Signed and have only lost 2 games since (in the league).

Not sure how you want to colour code that.

[CountryRoyal]

Its also worth noting that we lost 2 league games in August before Liam Moore Signed and have only lost 2 games since (in the league).

Not sure how you want to colour code that.

Alternate each letter with white pre Moore and black afterwards.

[kwik-silva]

I think we should now drop the use of the words win, lose and draw and results with this new green, red and yellow system.

Although we're coming off a tasty 5 game green streak, i'd take a yellow if you offered it me now for Saturday, but I fear we may replicate last year's red.

Last year was quite a deep red though, considering we were quite a decent green midway through the match.