End of season Magic Number countdown.

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tidus_mi2
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by tidus_mi2 » 18 Mar 2017 21:29

I'm curious how early we will have had enough points to survive relegation, that being, when we had at least 1 more point than the 22nd placed club come the end of the season.

The Cube
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by The Cube » 18 Mar 2017 21:40

Ian Royal wrote:Play Offs (sixth): 21

Or 19 if you do the calculation correctly.

Mid Sussex Royal
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Mid Sussex Royal » 18 Mar 2017 21:45

Must be less than 19 as Sheff Wed play Fulham last game?

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Ian Royal
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Ian Royal » 18 Mar 2017 22:14

The Cube wrote:
Ian Royal wrote:Play Offs (sixth): 21

Or 19 if you do the calculation correctly.

The only one I didn't double check, and completely forgot about Fulham's midweek draw. :roll:

Mid Sussex Royal wrote:Must be less than 19 as Sheff Wed play Fulham last game?

I'm sad enough to do this, but not sad enough to cross reference who's playing who in the final games and take it into account.

percy_freeman
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by percy_freeman » 18 Mar 2017 23:26

Only one number matters. 106.


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Sutekh
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Sutekh » 19 Mar 2017 08:36

Image

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Chuckle Brother
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Chuckle Brother » 19 Mar 2017 10:12

Sutekh wrote:
Broxroyal wrote:Realistically there is only any value in the magic number for us to make the play offs, i.e the difference between us and 7th (currently Fulham, of course).

So the magic number for play offs is 27 and will hopefully reduce rapidly after Saturday.


This is precisely what we need to be interested in currently. Depending on how that develops perhaps this time next month we can start to look more at magic numbers for grabbing 3rd or 4th and a home play off second leg.


An extra 3 or 4 days for the groundsman to sort the pitch out could be massively important.

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Chuckle Brother
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Chuckle Brother » 19 Mar 2017 10:14

Ian Royal wrote:
The Cube wrote:
Ian Royal wrote:Play Offs (sixth): 21

Or 19 if you do the calculation correctly.

The only one I didn't double check, and completely forgot about Fulham's midweek draw. :roll:

Mid Sussex Royal wrote:Must be less than 19 as Sheff Wed play Fulham last game?

I'm sad enough to do this, but not sad enough to cross reference who's playing who in the final games and take it into account.


If it's worth doing, it's worth doing properly.

Which it probably wasn't.

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Brum Royal
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Brum Royal » 20 Mar 2017 18:37

tidus_mi2 wrote:I'm curious how early we will have had enough points to survive relegation, that being, when we had at least 1 more point than the 22nd placed club come the end of the season.


The lowest we can mathematically finish now is 19th, based purely on our total of 67 - 24 (points available) = 43, and ignoring the fixtures


Nameless
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Nameless » 20 Mar 2017 20:17

So we are safe from relegation officially then ?

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Brum Royal
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Brum Royal » 21 Mar 2017 10:01

Nameless wrote:So we are safe from relegation officially then ?


Yes

JC
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by JC » 23 Mar 2017 03:02

I like to look back at the statistics from previous seasons which are a reasonable guide to what we would need
To make the top 2 the maximum we can't make, the highest in previous years would be 24, the average 16 and the lowest would be 8. So still an outside chance.
For playoffs the maximum is 19, the highest in previous years was 12, the average 5 and the lowest 1. So with 8 games left we only need 12 points to beat the highest points total ever achieved by 7th place since the league became 24 teams which was 24 seasons ago. If this season is an average one we only need 5 points

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