by BR0B0T »
15 May 2017 10:57
Hound BR0B0T do you remember a couple of pages ago when
we worked out how bookmakers calcul8 odds.
do you remember?
Was that all that horrible spreadsheet stuff that took no account of form/home advantage etc, and didn't fit onto the web page properly? I did try to forget that, yes.
Is it really that stats driven?
spreadsheet was knocked together in 5 mins before the first game
and was primarily looking at qualification. It was pretty accurate.
How else are you going to come up with a 'number' for the odds?
You're trying to assess the 'strength' of two teams in a probabilistic
manner. The hypothesis being that the 'stronger' team will win more
often.
A fairly good predictor is goals expectancy. Feel free to go and back
test it over the last 20 years or so