Play off odds

[Ian Royal]

do you remember a couple of pages ago when
we worked out how bookmakers calcul8 odds.

do you remember?

Was that all that horrible spreadsheet stuff that took no account of form/home advantage etc, and didn't fit onto the web page properly? I did try to forget that, yes. Is it really that stats driven?

spreadsheet was knocked together in 5 mins before the first game
and was primarily looking at qualification. It was pretty accurate.

How else are you going to come up with a 'number' for the odds?

You're trying to assess the 'strength' of two teams in a probabilistic
manner. The hypothesis being that the 'stronger' team will win more
often.

A fairly good predictor is goals expectancy. Feel free to go and back
test it over the last 20 years or so

Mate none of us care enough because we're not autistprogrammers

[BR0B0T]

Was that all that horrible spreadsheet stuff that took no account of form/home advantage etc, and didn't fit onto the web page properly? I did try to forget that, yes. Is it really that stats driven?

spreadsheet was knocked together in 5 mins before the first game
and was primarily looking at qualification. It was pretty accurate.

How else are you going to come up with a 'number' for the odds?

You're trying to assess the 'strength' of two teams in a probabilistic
manner. The hypothesis being that the 'stronger' team will win more
often.

A fairly good predictor is goals expectancy. Feel free to go and back
test it over the last 20 years or so

Mate none of us care enough because we're not autistprogrammers

U OK Hun? xx

Will put it down to PreMatchTension

[Royal_jimmy]

We are 11/5 to win tomorrow which are cracking odds. I got us and Wednesday to win at 11/2 in to total odds

[Brum Royal]

Have had a go on us to win in extra time (12/1) and us to win on penalties (also 12/1) with SkyBet.

[Winston Biscuit]

bookies odds don't necessarily mean what they think is most likely to happen btw

the whole 'favourites' things is a bit of a misnomer imo

[BR0B0T]

bookies odds don't necessarily mean what they think is most likely to happen btw

the whole 'favourites' things is a bit of a misnomer imo

yeah they do

no, it isn't

[Winston Biscuit]

bookies odds don't necessarily mean what they think is most likely to happen btw

the whole 'favourites' things is a bit of a misnomer imo

yeah they do

no, it isn't

its a shop moving it's prices around to find a value point.

[Nameless]

bookies odds don't necessarily mean what they think is most likely to happen btw

the whole 'favourites' things is a bit of a misnomer imo

yeah they do

no, it isn't

So if loads of people put money on a certain outcome you are telling me the bookies don't adjust the odds to reflect that ?
Is a particular result tonight more likely now than it was yesterday ? If the result is based on some kind of predestined algorithm surely there is nothing that can alter that between games, so the odds of Us winning tonight must be the same as it was at 7.30pm on Saturday.
What causes on course bookies to constantly adjust their odds before a race ? Has a horse sudd not got faster ? Nope, they adjust based on where the money is going.
Surely the calculation bookies make is not 'what score is likely', their calculation is 'how do we make most money / lose the least'.

[Readingfanman]

bookies odds don't necessarily mean what they think is most likely to happen btw

the whole 'favourites' things is a bit of a misnomer imo

yeah they do

no, it isn't

So if loads of people put money on a certain outcome you are telling me the bookies don't adjust the odds to reflect that ?
Is a particular result tonight more likely now than it was yesterday ? If the result is based on some kind of predestined algorithm surely there is nothing that can alter that between games, so the odds of Us winning tonight must be the same as it was at 7.30pm on Saturday.
What causes on course bookies to constantly adjust their odds before a race ? Has a horse sudd not got faster ? Nope, they adjust based on where the money is going.
Surely the calculation bookies make is not 'what score is likely', their calculation is 'how do we make most money / lose the least'.

There has to be a starting price though doesn't there?

[NewCorkSeth]

http://m.goal.com/s/en/news/3049/ask-th ... ds-created

[andrew1957]

I have just looked at the revised odds and Huddersfield are now favorites at 8/11 whereas Reading are 11/10.

Seems very odd to me considering we outplayed them at the Madstad and were a tad unlucky away. And then we went on to beat the mighty Fulham who were hot favourites for promotion.

I would have expected us to be favourites for the final. Seems odd to me.

[Top Flight]

I have just looked at the revised odds and Huddersfield are now favorites at 8/11 whereas Reading are 11/10.

Seems very odd to me considering we outplayed them at the Madstad and were a tad unlucky away. And then we went on to beat the mighty Fulham who were hot favourites for promotion.

I would have expected us to be favourites for the final. Seems odd to me.

We beat ten men at the Mad. Don't get cocky. Huddersfield are rightly the favourites. They are the better team.

[alfie9]

Yeah. We were unconvincing at the Mad Stad, and the game was well even in Yorkshire. Huddersfield are no mugs, and will win comfortably unless we bring our A-game.

[BR0B0T]

I have just looked at the revised odds and Huddersfield are now favorites at 8/11 whereas Reading are 11/10.

Seems very odd to me considering we outplayed them at the Madstad and were a tad unlucky away. And then we went on to beat the mighty Fulham who were hot favourites for promotion.

I would have expected us to be favourites for the final. Seems odd to me.

We beat ten men at the Mad. Don't get cocky. Huddersfield are rightly the favourites. They are the better team.

try reading a few pages back

[Top Flight]

And what will I discover there?

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

We seem to.be 21/10 they are 11/8

[CountryRoyal]

Que brobot starting 3 threads on how they calculated those odds.

[BR0B0T]

Que brobot starting 3 threads on how they calculated those odds.

[Woodcote Royal]

Huddersfield are no mugs, and will win comfortably unless we bring our A-game.

Just like Fulham and so well flagged by their massive fanbase, not to mention every journo whose head wasn't 3 feet up RFC's backside. Why the fcuk we bothered turning up for either leg just beggars belief...................................

[tidus_mi2]

The likes of Wednesday, Fulham and Leeds must be furious looking at that shambles of a play off final