An analysis of promoted teams in the play-off era

[Sebastian the Red]

Just browsing through Reddit, and came across this absolute beauty of a post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comment ... es_in_the/

Really interesting reading.

[muirinho]

Just browsing through Reddit, and came across this absolute beauty of a post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comment ... es_in_the/

Really interesting reading.

yep, and can't disagree with his conclusions (although I think Reading's GD this season masks a willingness bordering on reckless to go for 3 points rather than settle for shutting up shop if we're 2 goals down)

[Sebastian the Red]

Just browsing through Reddit, and came across this absolute beauty of a post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comment ... es_in_the/

Really interesting reading.

yep, and can't disagree with his conclusions (although I think Reading's GD this season masks a willingness bordering on reckless to go for 3 points rather than settle for shutting up shop if we're 2 goals down)

You're right. Couple of big losses have killed the GD - but the underlying points are illuminating.

Can't believe someone has the time or inclination to put all that together.

[Readingfanman]

Read it all, then at the bottom, there is I'm a Fulham fan who isn't trying to be bitter.

Yeah. OK.

[Sebastian the Red]

Read it all, then at the bottom, there is I'm a Fulham fan who isn't trying to be bitter.

Yeah. OK.

In the third paragraph he says:

Next week's Championship Playoff final will be the 22nd, and will be contested between Premier League virgins Huddersfield, and old faeces (that’s right you pieces of shit), Reading who have had the fortune of being promoted as champions in 2005-06 and 2011-12.

It's clear he's being tongue in cheek/pretend bitter.

[Elm Park Kid]

The thing I got from that article is that Reading really should have stayed in the Prem for longer when they got promoted in 2006.

[Sebastian the Red]

The thing I got from that article is that Reading really should have stayed in the Prem for longer when they got promoted in 2006.

Yes indeed

[Hound]

was quite an interesting analysis.

It will certainly be a big challenge for whichever side goes up next week to hang around and prosper in the Prem. You would think some very astute signings would have to be made by either side to give them a chance

[Maguire]

No way I'm reading all that but the general thrust of it seems to make sense.

I reckon Reading will get bummed to death next season if they go up. Would have to buy half a dozen new first-teamers.

[JR]

Could we be the team to be promoted with the highest ever points total through the play-offs?

It is not one of his categories, but our 85 is higher than any other team where the points total is shown in that article.

[Gunny Fishcake]

The writer calls us "pieces of shit" so I wont be reading his piece of shit

[Sebastian the Red]

The writer calls us "pieces of shit" so I wont be reading his piece of shit

How delightfully humourless of you.

[maffff]

Missed our first season up there in What about the argument that "first timers are Naive to the Premier League"?

[PieEater]

Reading and Huddersfield are both in for a whole lot of pain, whoever goes up. Neither side have a strong Goal Difference which suggests that they will struggle to pick up many points next year. History does not favour teams from the playoffs either, and with Reading holding the worst defence in the history of promoted teams, I would not bet against them going straight back down. Alarmingly Huddersfield have not scored anywhere near enough goals to make them look anything like staying longer than 1 year in the PL. Neither side have scored enough goals, and this is a big worry. It is possible if Huddersfield win promotion, they could go down with a record low points total. Whoever goes up, I would say, make an almost irrefutable case for coming straight back down

and

Reading and Huddersfield are both well and truly oxf*rd

[tidus_mi2]

I think our poor defensive record and poor goal difference gets skewed by the odd away thrashings we've had. Otherwise we're a fairly consistent side.

[windermereROYAL]

Of course both us or Hudds will go straight into next season with exactly the same squads. we must be fcuked. i like to think Stam and Wagner are both realists and know that neither squad as it is now wouldn`t have a chance, and would demand money to strengthen significantly.

[Mike Hunt]

Missed our first season up there in What about the argument that "first timers are Naive to the Premier League"?

Yeah i noticed that too. I have commented and let's see if it changes his analysis

[Stranded]

I think our poor defensive record and poor goal difference gets skewed by the odd away thrashings we've had. Otherwise we're a fairly consistent side.

What I think would be more interesting as a Stat, which he probably didn't do as not easy to get the stats, is is there any correlation between amount of clean sheets kept and performance. We kept 15 out of 46 games (32.6%), which I'm sure is massively high compared to other teams who have conceded 60+ goals in a season.

After all, it doesn't matter if you lose a game 1-0 or 7-1 but keep clean sheets in a 3rd of your games in any league and you are going to be comfortably safe at worst I would expect.

[RoyalBlue]

I think our poor defensive record and poor goal difference gets skewed by the odd away thrashings we've had. Otherwise we're a fairly consistent side.

What I think would be more interesting as a Stat, which he probably didn't do as not easy to get the stats, is is there any correlation between amount of clean sheets kept and performance. We kept 15 out of 46 games (32.6%), which I'm sure is massively high compared to other teams who have conceded 60+ goals in a season.

After all, it doesn't matter if you lose a game 1-0 or 7-1 but keep clean sheets in a 3rd of your games in any league and you are going to be comfortably safe at worst I would expect.

Exactly. Points aren't awarded on the basis of statistics or artistic merit - a concept that some Fulham (and other) fans have failed to grasp.

[NewCorkSeth]

Reads like nonsense to me. More affects teams than the statistics he presented. Manager, money, academy, opposition change, players bought/sold.