Relegation

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Snowball
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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2018 12:02

Salford Royal wrote:17/2 on Betfair.

‘Boom’.


I genuinely think relegation is far more likely than staying up
and those odds are insanely good

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Re: Relegation

by Hound » 18 Mar 2018 12:16

Zip wrote:Snowball we have the hardest run in of any of the sides at the bottom. Brum have the easiest. I feel they will finish above us. I reckon Burton and Sunderland will drop so it will be between us and Barnsley.

That’s why when we have been drawing games at home recently against out of form sides our chances of going down have been increasing even though the gap between us and the bottom three has widened. We have very few games that now look winnable whereas Brum have more. We have played and not won those games that were winnable.

I thought QPR was winnable but their away form has suddenly greatly improved. If Stam remains we have to pray Barnsley fall apart because apart from Sunderland at home I can’t see where we will win.
Stam should have been fired after Burton in December. There is no way any new manager would have done any worse in the months that have followed.


Agree with all of us pretty much

We have a reasonably hard run in, but Ipswich, QPR, Sunderland at home and Sheff Weds away in normal circumstances should be at least 6 points. Agree that Stam unlikely to achieve that though

Brum have rolled the dice and I think it will work for them. Apparently they battered Hull yesterday and had 2 decent performances in the previous games

Sunderland are a car crash (almost literally in the case of Darron Gibson) and will go. Think Burton have too little quality. Agree it’s us or Barnsley for that 3rd spot.

Berry
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Re: Relegation

by Berry » 18 Mar 2018 12:22

I think we will go down unfortunately and then rebuild from L1 in all areas of the club....My conclusion of this season is...The Chinese owners have bought in as an investment to reap the rewards of building land connected to the previous Thai owners, no different to buying stocks and shares, Ron Gourlay is a paid shield for them and is probably paid handsomely to deflect any issues, Stam knows what's going on and would be crazy to terminate his contract and lose money, the players know what's going on and like in life some can deal with the uncertainties and some can't...This is modern football...Look at Blackpool, Coventry etc, this is what financial chasing owners are about...

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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2018 12:43

Berry wrote:I think we will go down unfortunately and then rebuild from L1 in all areas of the club....My conclusion of this season is...The Chinese owners have bought in as an investment to reap the rewards of building land connected to the previous Thai owners, no different to buying stocks and shares, Ron Gourlay is a paid shield for them and is probably paid handsomely to deflect any issues, Stam knows what's going on and would be crazy to terminate his contract and lose money, the players know what's going on and like in life some can deal with the uncertainties and some can't...This is modern football...Look at Blackpool, Coventry etc, this is what financial chasing owners are about...


You seem to imply that the owners don't care at all about the team.

If that is so, we spurge 10-20 Million on it with 4 Year contracts?

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Re: Relegation

by Dr_Hfuhruhurr » 18 Mar 2018 12:45

Snowball wrote:
Reading QPR 5% 25% 79% 1-3 0 points
Villa Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-3 0 points
Reading Preston 5% 15% 80% 0-2 0 points
Fulham Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-5 0 points
Reading Sunderland 35% 35% 30% 2-1 3 points
Wednesday Reading 5% 20% 75% 1-3 0 points
Reading Ipswich 25% 50% 25% 1-1 1 points
Cardiff Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-3 0 points

.


You know what, certainly at home, thats the sort of run in youd want if you need some late season points. Preston are a wild card, but aside from that we have two nonsense mid table sides and the worst team in the league. There are definitely points to be won there. Saying that, the Leeds game is probably the best yardstick and we somehow managed to let them score twice, so who knows. The Away games dont look good at all. I would say we're probably writing them off already.

So, lets say we get two wins and a draw at home and lose all the away games. Would we stay up from that? or do we need to fluke an away win before the end of the season?


Berry
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Re: Relegation

by Berry » 18 Mar 2018 12:56

Snowball wrote:
Berry wrote:I think we will go down unfortunately and then rebuild from L1 in all areas of the club....My conclusion of this season is...The Chinese owners have bought in as an investment to reap the rewards of building land connected to the previous Thai owners, no different to buying stocks and shares, Ron Gourlay is a paid shield for them and is probably paid handsomely to deflect any issues, Stam knows what's going on and would be crazy to terminate his contract and lose money, the players know what's going on and like in life some can deal with the uncertainties and some can't...This is modern football...Look at Blackpool, Coventry etc, this is what financial chasing owners are about...


You seem to imply that the owners don't care at all about the team.

If that is so, we spurge 10-20 Million on it with 4 Year contracts?


But if they sell up as soon as the property deals are finalised then the new owners pick up the tab...Unfortunately making the club an even less of a prospect to buy...The clue is in how the Thai owners have now moved onto Oxford...We have been sold, bought, sold since Sir John moved on, we are an investement in my opinion very similar to the Thames Investment era...We are like a sponge being squeezed out by prospective owners, there cant be much left to sell now

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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2018 13:15

Dr_Hfuhruhurr wrote:
Snowball wrote:
Reading QPR 5% 25% 79% 1-3 0 points
Villa Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-3 0 points
Reading Preston 5% 15% 80% 0-2 0 points
Fulham Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-5 0 points
Reading Sunderland 35% 35% 30% 2-1 3 points
Wednesday Reading 5% 20% 75% 1-3 0 points
Reading Ipswich 25% 50% 25% 1-1 1 points
Cardiff Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-3 0 points

.


You know what, certainly at home, thats the sort of run in youd want if you need some late season points. Preston are a wild card, but aside from that we have two nonsense mid table sides and the worst team in the league. There are definitely points to be won there. Saying that, the Leeds game is probably the best yardstick and we somehow managed to let them score twice, so who knows. The Away games dont look good at all. I would say we're probably writing them off already.

So, lets say we get two wins and a draw at home and lose all the away games. Would we stay up from that? or do we need to fluke an away win before the end of the season?


Three of our four home games are against sides in great form away

Ipswich Away, Last six games = 11 Points

Lost 1-0 at Bristol
Won 1-2 at Wednesday
Won 0-1 at Preston
Drew 1-1 at Norwich
Won 0-2 at Sunderland
Drew 1-1 at Bolton

QPR Last 7 games, in very good form

Home to Derby 1-1
Home to Sunderland 1-0
Away to Villa won 1-3
Away to Fulham drew 2-2
Home to Barnsley won 1-0
Away to Wolves lost 2-1
Home to Bolton, won 2-0

Preston Last Six Away

0-2 Won at Sunderland
1-3 Won at Bolton
1-1 Drew at Villa
1-1 Drew at Brentford
0-3 Won at Forest
1-0 Lost at Sheffield Utd

I want to be SO wrong, but these all look likely away wins

CavershamRoyal
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Re: Relegation

by CavershamRoyal » 18 Mar 2018 13:16

Still can get odds of 9.00 on William Hill, I was able to boost that to 9.68 too. Feels really dirty betting on it but I have a feeling there's a far greater chance of us going down than the 10% the odds imply, and would help soften the blow.

Hopefully I've now guaranteed our survival, but we'll see :cry:

Berry
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Re: Relegation

by Berry » 18 Mar 2018 13:23

Snowball wrote:
Dr_Hfuhruhurr wrote:
Snowball wrote:
Reading QPR 5% 25% 79% 1-3 0 points
Villa Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-3 0 points
Reading Preston 5% 15% 80% 0-2 0 points
Fulham Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-5 0 points
Reading Sunderland 35% 35% 30% 2-1 3 points
Wednesday Reading 5% 20% 75% 1-3 0 points
Reading Ipswich 25% 50% 25% 1-1 1 points
Cardiff Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-3 0 points

.


You know what, certainly at home, thats the sort of run in youd want if you need some late season points. Preston are a wild card, but aside from that we have two nonsense mid table sides and the worst team in the league. There are definitely points to be won there. Saying that, the Leeds game is probably the best yardstick and we somehow managed to let them score twice, so who knows. The Away games dont look good at all. I would say we're probably writing them off already.

So, lets say we get two wins and a draw at home and lose all the away games. Would we stay up from that? or do we need to fluke an away win before the end of the season?


Three of our four home games are against sides in great form away

Ipswich Away, Last six games = 11 Points

Lost 1-0 at Bristol
Won 1-2 at Wednesday
Won 0-1 at Preston
Drew 1-1 at Norwich
Won 0-2 at Sunderland
Drew 1-1 at Bolton

QPR Last 7 games, in very good form

Home to Derby 1-1
Home to Sunderland 1-0
Away to Villa won 1-3
Away to Fulham drew 2-2
Home to Barnsley won 1-0
Away to Wolves lost 2-1
Home to Bolton, won 2-0

Preston Last Six Away

0-2 Won at Sunderland
1-3 Won at Bolton
1-1 Drew at Villa
1-1 Drew at Brentford
0-3 Won at Forest
1-0 Lost at Sheffield Utd

I want to be SO wrong, but these all look likely away wins


I want to be wrong also but at present form and shipping at least 2 goals a game with no real goalscorers, where can a win come from?...I think sadly we will struggle to get a point or two from the last 8 games


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strap
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Re: Relegation

by strap » 18 Mar 2018 13:26

Berry wrote:
Snowball wrote:
Berry wrote:I think we will go down unfortunately and then rebuild from L1 in all areas of the club....My conclusion of this season is...The Chinese owners have bought in as an investment to reap the rewards of building land connected to the previous Thai owners, no different to buying stocks and shares, Ron Gourlay is a paid shield for them and is probably paid handsomely to deflect any issues, Stam knows what's going on and would be crazy to terminate his contract and lose money, the players know what's going on and like in life some can deal with the uncertainties and some can't...This is modern football...Look at Blackpool, Coventry etc, this is what financial chasing owners are about...


You seem to imply that the owners don't care at all about the team.

If that is so, we spurge 10-20 Million on it with 4 Year contracts?


But if they sell up as soon as the property deals are finalised then the new owners pick up the tab...Unfortunately making the club an even less of a prospect to buy...The clue is in how the Thai owners have now moved onto Oxford...We have been sold, bought, sold since Sir John moved on, we are an investment in my opinion very similar to the Thames Investment era...We are like a sponge being squeezed out by prospective owners, there cant be much left to sell now


Good afternoon everyone. Hope yesterday's debacle and cold weather haven't taken too much of a toil.

The above is pretty much spot on. As one who works within the property/development/construction industry I can confirm that this is exactly what happens in many cases of companies being bought up for obscure reasons. The Thais had absolutely no interest in the football side of the business whatsoever, as I believe I said at the time of the takeover. This is confirmed by the Thais moving on just as soon as planning permission was obtained for REP. They have now moved onto Oxford Utd, although I am not aware of any lad associated with that club.

The Chinese owners are well know as retail mart developers. I believe, (although stand to be corrected), that the football holding company owns the freehold to the small retail park to the immediate east of the Mad Stad. The current stadium forms the western boundary of that parcel of land, and so would make a good area for extension should they want to redevelop the whole area into a larger retail park.

Again, I posted some time ago of a scenario where RFC would slip slowly down the divisions, so that a relocation to a smaller "community" stadium would free up the current stadium land. I absolutely agree with people labelling me a conspiracy theorist, nutter, UKIPper, (quite how that insult got thrown at me based on my musings on the ground went way over my head, but hey ho). Conjuring up such a scenario IS bonkers, however, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility, having had close hand experience of Maidstaone Utd and Dartford's demise when I lived in those areas.

We as supporters who will still be here long after the various owners have sucked out their profits, do need to pay attention to extreme possibilities related to possible goings on at OUR club.

On teh flip side, there is the noted question of long-term contracts being handed out , not to mention the new training ground complex. These obligations will require a lot of money to fulfil. However, as the poster above noted, that will fall onto the next owners. There is the benefit that the new training complex will have its own value, and so the even if the club is relocated to a smaller stadium, the overall value of the club will not be reduced by as much as if we had stayed at Hogwood.

Probably far too long for anyone to bother to read, but just a considered piece before lunch. Have a good rest of w/e all.

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Re: Relegation

by Dr_Hfuhruhurr » 18 Mar 2018 13:44

Snowball wrote:
I want to be SO wrong, but these all look likely away wins


I see your point, and I'm playing a HUGE amount of Devil's Advocate here, but if somebody was to say to me 'Who would you want your last home to be against if you needed three points', my answer would be Ipswich Town. If we lose to Sunderland, we deserve to go down. Theyve been in same club wide rut that were in, but theyve been in it all season. (Of course, we may draw this game so we cant draw any real conclusions from it).

Im not a Stam apologist, Im just trying to find some optimism. For the LOLs really. Im of the opinion that the last 6 game form with 14 games to go is not the same as the last 6 games of the season. There is always some clubs metaphoriacally on the beach, and other clubs who have been doing nothing all season and suddenly find some form. This is what Im telling myself anyway.

I dont think its over at all - its tight, I admit.
I do like the implication that we might need to nick an away win, and that the outcome of our season may depend on whether we can all be arsed to go to Fulham this year.

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leon
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Re: Relegation

by leon » 18 Mar 2018 14:07

Snowball wrote:
Dr_Hfuhruhurr wrote:
Snowball wrote:
Reading QPR 5% 25% 79% 1-3 0 points
Villa Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-3 0 points
Reading Preston 5% 15% 80% 0-2 0 points
Fulham Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-5 0 points
Reading Sunderland 35% 35% 30% 2-1 3 points
Wednesday Reading 5% 20% 75% 1-3 0 points
Reading Ipswich 25% 50% 25% 1-1 1 points
Cardiff Reading 0% 10% 90% 0-3 0 points

.


You know what, certainly at home, thats the sort of run in youd want if you need some late season points. Preston are a wild card, but aside from that we have two nonsense mid table sides and the worst team in the league. There are definitely points to be won there. Saying that, the Leeds game is probably the best yardstick and we somehow managed to let them score twice, so who knows. The Away games dont look good at all. I would say we're probably writing them off already.

So, lets say we get two wins and a draw at home and lose all the away games. Would we stay up from that? or do we need to fluke an away win before the end of the season?


Three of our four home games are against sides in great form away

Ipswich Away, Last six games = 11 Points

Lost 1-0 at Bristol
Won 1-2 at Wednesday
Won 0-1 at Preston
Drew 1-1 at Norwich
Won 0-2 at Sunderland
Drew 1-1 at Bolton

QPR Last 7 games, in very good form

Home to Derby 1-1
Home to Sunderland 1-0
Away to Villa won 1-3
Away to Fulham drew 2-2
Home to Barnsley won 1-0
Away to Wolves lost 2-1
Home to Bolton, won 2-0

Preston Last Six Away

0-2 Won at Sunderland
1-3 Won at Bolton
1-1 Drew at Villa
1-1 Drew at Brentford
0-3 Won at Forest
1-0 Lost at Sheffield Utd

I want to be SO wrong, but these all look likely away wins


End of season games can throw up odd results.

This team needs to stop conceding goals, making ourselves very difficult to create chances against will give us a chance to get some draws.

Forget about passing, reorganise defensively, grind teams down.

Play three, four defensive midfielders I don’t give a shit. Stop conceding.

There is still plenty of opportunity to stay up.

We have to sack Stam however. He has shown he is totally unable to get this team defending as a team.

Any goodwill from last season has gone this is purely a business decision now.

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Re: Relegation

by Hound » 18 Mar 2018 14:14

One thing in our favour is we look like scoring when we go forward.

As Leon said, we must keep clean sheets. If we can, then I’d back us to win the game every time


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Re: Relegation

by Zip » 18 Mar 2018 14:22

When is Elphick due back? I recall he was out for about six weeks....well that was six weeks ago.So...

Snowball
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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2018 14:33

Zip wrote:When is Elphick due back? I recall he was out for about six weeks....well that was six weeks ago.So...



He probable sneaked off home when nobody was watching

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Re: Relegation

by Eaststandman » 18 Mar 2018 14:45

Why is retail development attractive? I thought online sales and divesting retail was the way forward for many existing retailers?

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Re: Relegation

by You're Bard » 18 Mar 2018 14:50

Image

It's hard to be optimistic.

If we drop into the bottom three, which is looking increasingly likely, we won't get out.

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Re: Relegation

by Berry » 18 Mar 2018 15:02

Eaststandman wrote:Why is retail development attractive? I thought online sales and divesting retail was the way forward for many existing retailers?


Large long term rents, a great money launderette

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Re: Relegation

by Royal & Ancient » 18 Mar 2018 15:49

Seldom come on here these days but Strap has some very valid points. Worrying part about the new “training” ground is the lack of anything happening except clearance around the old stables which has,I believe, been earmarked for housing. The ground has been cleared with mountains of soil/ sand about but no sign of pitches etc which as it’s the growing season, should be under way. Could well be preparing for a new housing estate which Wokingham would welcome!
Having given up my S/T after that pathetic Wembley game I rely on you lot and Radio Berks to keep me up to date but it’s not the Club I’ve known for so many years . ( can many of you remember sitting on the wall behind the Wantage Road end and scrambling up the railway sleepers - 1938- ?). The. Club was part of the Town then,not now, with distant “owners” with seemingly an asset stripping agenda. And whoever thought of a multi storey car park at a football ground has never been in an enclosed space with Millwall and Leeds supporters.
Stick with it you Hobnobbers.

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Re: Relegation

by tee peg » 18 Mar 2018 16:03

Zip wrote:When is Elphick due back? I recall he was out for about six weeks....well that was six weeks ago.So...


He will disappear in to the Black hole and join Watson/Richards/Quinn/Harriott/Mendes .All fit but not played for some strange reason.

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