Relegation

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strap
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Re: Relegation

by strap » 18 Mar 2018 20:20

Snowball wrote:
Berry wrote:So did Sunderland and look way they are....If you really think changing the manager now will stop us getting relegated your delusional..We will need at least 10 points from 24...Even Pep couldnt get the squad to do that in what will be roughly 6 weeks


I think we are going down, but to say we need ten points is BONKERS

We need to match the points of the four sides below us, and we have 3 points as a buffer.



20 38 -13 36 Reading
21 38 -19 33 Barnsley
22 38 -29 33 Birmingham
23 38 -40 30 Burton
24 38 -30 28 Sunderland


None of the teams below us have managed an average of 1 point per game
but even if they do for the last 8 games (and TWO of them need to do that)
we would then probably only need 5 points, unless we get some severe hammering
and lose our "extra point" of goal-difference

Sunderland have to match us AND pick up 8/9 extra points
Burton have to match us and pick up an extra 6/7 points.

Barnsley and Birmingham have to match us plus 3 points, probably four.

Also of interest is that our rivals will be playing each other. So, say for example, Birmingham find some decent form after their 3-0 win, well they are playing Burton and Bolton.

Six pointers are


Barnsley v Bolton
Birmingham v Burton
Birmingham v Bolton
Burton v Hull
Burton v Bolton
Burton v Hull

and of course

Reading v Sunderland


Doing my guesswork, I reckon we could be safe with one win and one draw. Key is beating Sunderland, which surely even WE can do? As for the draw, well Ipswich at home looks the best bet, penultimate game of the season with them with absolutely nothing to play for. It means Barnsley can draw 7 of their final 8 and we stay up on GD - assuming we aren't thrashed in our remaining 6 defeats. Sadly we are shipping well over 2 goals a game from our last 9, so that might not work in our favour!

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Re: Relegation

by Royal_jimmy » 18 Mar 2018 20:27

I think the QPR game is massive.

Win that and we're well overdue a home win against QPR then Barnsley need to beat Bristol City. That won't be easy for them. Then we'd maybe have a 6 point lead with 7 games left.

We really need to get behind the team and get an early goal vs QPR. Try kill them off early

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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2018 20:36

strap wrote:
Snowball wrote:
Berry wrote:So did Sunderland and look way they are....If you really think changing the manager now will stop us getting relegated your delusional..We will need at least 10 points from 24...Even Pep couldnt get the squad to do that in what will be roughly 6 weeks


I think we are going down, but to say we need ten points is BONKERS

We need to match the points of the four sides below us, and we have 3 points as a buffer.



20 38 -13 36 Reading
21 38 -19 33 Barnsley
22 38 -29 33 Birmingham
23 38 -40 30 Burton
24 38 -30 28 Sunderland


None of the teams below us have managed an average of 1 point per game
but even if they do for the last 8 games (and TWO of them need to do that)
we would then probably only need 5 points, unless we get some severe hammering
and lose our "extra point" of goal-difference

Sunderland have to match us AND pick up 8/9 extra points
Burton have to match us and pick up an extra 6/7 points.

Barnsley and Birmingham have to match us plus 3 points, probably four.

Also of interest is that our rivals will be playing each other. So, say for example, Birmingham find some decent form after their 3-0 win, well they are playing Burton and Bolton.

Six pointers are


Barnsley v Bolton
Birmingham v Burton
Birmingham v Bolton
Burton v Hull
Burton v Bolton
Burton v Hull

and of course

Reading v Sunderland


Doing my guesswork, I reckon we could be safe with one win and one draw. Key is beating Sunderland, which surely even WE can do? As for the draw, well Ipswich at home looks the best bet, penultimate game of the season with them with absolutely nothing to play for. It means Barnsley can draw 7 of their final 8 and we stay up on GD - assuming we aren't thrashed in our remaining 6 defeats. Sadly we are shipping well over 2 goals a game from our last 9, so that might not work in our favour!


You could be right, but I think we need one win (2-0) and at least 2 draws. I say that because if we get six defeats (and somewhere like Fulham/Villa might mean shipping 4/5) we would lose our GD advantage over Barnsley. If they were to D7 L1 (say a 3-0 loss) and we W1 D1 L6 we'd be level on points and almost identical on GD.

A 2-0 win over Sunderland would give us a GD of -11, but six defeats would cost us between -6 (1-0s) and say -18, (average 3-0). That worst-case scenario would leave Barnsley on -22GD, Reading on - 17 AT BEST, and possibly -29.

Just ONE pummelling could make the difference. So I think we need, probably, 5 points (3-1-1 and +2 GD) to "cater for 5 probably horrible defeats (-10 GD if we are lucky)

That would put us on 41 Points and -21 GD

Barnsley would need to get 8 points from 8 and a GD of -1, or get 9 points
while Birmingham would need 9 points, which I think they will get.

Just picking up 4 points is not likely to be enough.

Personally, I am not at all sure we'll beat Sunderland (but maybe we'll beat Ipswich and need a point at Cardiff to stay up).

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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2018 20:39

Royal_jimmy wrote:I think the QPR game is massive.

Win that and we're well overdue a home win against QPR then Barnsley need to beat Bristol City. That won't be easy for them. Then we'd maybe have a 6 point lead with 7 games left.

We really need to get behind the team and get an early goal vs QPR. Try kill them off early


THIS (even if it doesn't feel likely)

Basically we have to invert form in one game, get a surprise win.

(and probably then, we'll beat Sunderland)

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Re: Relegation

by strap » 18 Mar 2018 20:39

Snowball wrote:
strap wrote:
Snowball wrote:
I think we are going down, but to say we need ten points is BONKERS

We need to match the points of the four sides below us, and we have 3 points as a buffer.



20 38 -13 36 Reading
21 38 -19 33 Barnsley
22 38 -29 33 Birmingham
23 38 -40 30 Burton
24 38 -30 28 Sunderland


None of the teams below us have managed an average of 1 point per game
but even if they do for the last 8 games (and TWO of them need to do that)
we would then probably only need 5 points, unless we get some severe hammering
and lose our "extra point" of goal-difference

Sunderland have to match us AND pick up 8/9 extra points
Burton have to match us and pick up an extra 6/7 points.

Barnsley and Birmingham have to match us plus 3 points, probably four.

Also of interest is that our rivals will be playing each other. So, say for example, Birmingham find some decent form after their 3-0 win, well they are playing Burton and Bolton.

Six pointers are


Barnsley v Bolton
Birmingham v Burton
Birmingham v Bolton
Burton v Hull
Burton v Bolton
Burton v Hull

and of course

Reading v Sunderland


Doing my guesswork, I reckon we could be safe with one win and one draw. Key is beating Sunderland, which surely even WE can do? As for the draw, well Ipswich at home looks the best bet, penultimate game of the season with them with absolutely nothing to play for. It means Barnsley can draw 7 of their final 8 and we stay up on GD - assuming we aren't thrashed in our remaining 6 defeats. Sadly we are shipping well over 2 goals a game from our last 9, so that might not work in our favour!


You could be right, but I think we need one win (2-0) and at least 2 draws. I say that because if we get six defeats (and somewhere like Fulham/Villa might mean shipping 4/5) we would lose our GD advantage over Barnsley. If they were to D7 L1 (say a 3-0 loss) and we W1 D1 L6 we'd be level on points and almost identical on GD.

A 2-0 win over Sunderland would give us a GD of -11, but six defeats would cost us between -6 (1-0s) and say -18, (average 3-0). That worst-case scenario would leave Barnsley on -22GD, Reading on - 17 AT BEST, and possibly -29.

Just ONE pummelling could make the difference. So I think we need, probably, 5 points (3-1-1 and +2 GD) to "cater for 5 probably horrible defeats (-10 GD if we are lucky)

That would put us on 41 Points and -21 GD

Barnsley would need to get 8 points from 8 and a GD of -1, or get 9 points
while Birmingham would need 9 points, which I think they will get.

Just picking up 4 points is not likely to be enough.

Personally, I am not at all sure we'll beat Sunderland (but maybe we'll beat Ipswich and need a point at Cardiff to stay up).


Agree 5 might well be enough, just reckon 4 is still a possibility - as you say depends on what Barnsley can scrape together.

Wouldn't Colin just LOVE to send us down on the last day of the season?!? It's as though is written in the stars!!


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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2018 20:41

strap wrote:
Wouldn't Colin just LOVE to send us down on the last day of the season?!? It's as though is written in the stars!!




Nah, we''l go there, do 'em 0-3 and make them go through the play-offs*






*the week after I win the lottery

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Re: Relegation

by bcubed » 19 Mar 2018 00:23

Seems like the only things left to do in this season are to bet on relegation and do the prediction thread

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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2018 01:54

bcubed wrote:Seems like the only things left to do in this season are to bet on relegation and do the prediction thread



Maybe we should have a 100 point bonus for getting points, position and GD right....

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Re: Relegation

by marlowuk » 19 Mar 2018 01:56

strap wrote:Wouldn't Colin just LOVE to send us down on the last day of the season?!? It's as though is written in the stars!!

My hope is that Fulham or Villa overtake them to be automatically promoted with Wolves so Cardiff play a weakened team against us to save their 'stars' for the play-offs. It's possible!!


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Re: Relegation

by double d » 19 Mar 2018 07:04

Snowball wrote:
bcubed wrote:Seems like the only things left to do in this season are to bet on relegation and do the prediction thread



Maybe we should have a 100 point bonus for getting points, position and GD right....


I will be in for that

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Re: Relegation

by Dr_Hfuhruhurr » 19 Mar 2018 08:51

bcubed wrote:Seems like the only things left to do in this season are to bet on relegation and do the prediction thread


I disagree.

There are plenty of scenarios where Reading will stay up, In fact believing that we could, could well make the rest of the season more exciting. Its certainly better than giving up entirely.

My conclusions would be:
If you think we only need 4 or 5 to stay up, you shouldnt bet on Reading being relegated. Thats a very achievable number, even for a team hopelessly out of form.

I think the real number is closer to 7 or 8. I agree that 10 is the upper limit, (but of course the upper limit is what the club should aim for). There are still 24 points left, again 7 or 8 is achievable.

What I do know is:
We can lose the next game and still have a decent chance of staying up
We can lose the next TWO games and still have a decent chance of staying up
We could lose THREE of our away games and still have a decent chance of staying up.
The season is far from over.

Im sure a lot of us remember that we managed to lose a load of key games towards the end of the season of our Premiership relegation and I repeat, if we lose to Sunderland, we dont deserve to stay up. But there are 3 of our points right there staring at us. There is an irony here. If we could get some atmosphere at home and take one of our usual crowds to Fulham then it all becomes VERY doable. The irony is that the club has spent much of the season alienating its support one way or another. So its up to us, really.

Two more observations. I think we have WAY over-reacted to the Norwich and Middlesbrough results. In most years, an away defeat to either of these teams would barely register
Im also starting to notice thats Snowballs stats end up with the same conclusions. We'll lose to the teams above us and beat the teams below us. If the league was like that, we'd never change positions. I dont think ppg counts for everything entirely, certainly not at this stage

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Re: Relegation

by Silver Fox » 19 Mar 2018 09:23

Royal_jimmy wrote:I think the QPR game is massive.

Win that and we're well overdue a home win against QPR then Barnsley need to beat Bristol City. That won't be easy for them. Then we'd maybe have a 6 point lead with 7 games left.

We really need to get behind the team and get an early goal vs QPR. Try kill them off early


Indeed, plus the random change to Friday teatime must work in our favour

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Re: Relegation

by Royalwaster » 19 Mar 2018 09:30

Dr_Hfuhruhurr wrote:
bcubed wrote:Seems like the only things left to do in this season are to bet on relegation and do the prediction thread


I disagree.

There are plenty of scenarios where Reading will stay up, In fact believing that we could, could well make the rest of the season more exciting. Its certainly better than giving up entirely.

My conclusions would be:
If you think we only need 4 or 5 to stay up, you shouldnt bet on Reading being relegated. Thats a very achievable number, even for a team hopelessly out of form.

I think the real number is closer to 7 or 8. I agree that 10 is the upper limit, (but of course the upper limit is what the club should aim for). There are still 24 points left, again 7 or 8 is achievable.

What I do know is:
We can lose the next game and still have a decent chance of staying up
We can lose the next TWO games and still have a decent chance of staying up
We could lose THREE of our away games and still have a decent chance of staying up.
The season is far from over.

Im sure a lot of us remember that we managed to lose a load of key games towards the end of the season of our Premiership relegation and I repeat, if we lose to Sunderland, we dont deserve to stay up. But there are 3 of our points right there staring at us. There is an irony here. If we could get some atmosphere at home and take one of our usual crowds to Fulham then it all becomes VERY doable. The irony is that the club has spent much of the season alienating its support one way or another. So its up to us, really.

Two more observations. I think we have WAY over-reacted to the Norwich and Middlesbrough results. In most years, an away defeat to either of these teams would barely register
Im also starting to notice thats Snowballs stats end up with the same conclusions. We'll lose to the teams above us and beat the teams below us. If the league was like that, we'd never change positions. I dont think ppg counts for everything entirely, certainly not at this stage


What no-one is factoring in is that we are likely to draw against Sunderland ....


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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2018 09:55

Dr_Hfuhruhurr wrote:[


Im also starting to notice thats Snowballs stats end up with the same conclusions. We'll lose to the teams above us and beat the teams below us. If the league was like that, we'd never change positions. I dont think ppg counts for everything entirely, certainly not at this stage



That's a bizarre thing to say when I have actually said I think there is a very good chance we wi fail to beat Sunderland (below us) but we might beat Ipswich (above us).

I have also said that it's by no means improbable that we could lose our last eight.

Yes of course sometimes teams beat teams above them (Derby 2-4 Reading) but this is not an average team, this is a team in free-fall results-wise, a team that is starting to let in more goals 3-3-3-3-3-2 in six of the most-recent 11 games as the season comes to a close.

They don't need a minor turn-over result now, they need a FREAK result, something like a win at Fulham, Cardiff, Villa, or beating QPR/Preston/Ipswich.

These results are POSSIBLE but, on any measure of form, highly, VERY highly unlikely.

On Sunderland's form, they should lose at our place
but OUR form says we aren't beating the bottom sides

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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2018 09:56

Royalwaster wrote:


What no-one is factoring in is that we are likely to draw against Sunderland ....



Yes. (or lose in a dire game)

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Re: Relegation

by Hoop Blah » 19 Mar 2018 10:14

Old Man Andrews wrote:Have you ever watched Gilles before a game in the warm up? Does very, very little coaching.


Not that I'm passing comment on his ability as a coach, but what do you expect to see during the warm up?

The coaching is done during the week and the warm up is purely about getting mind and body ready to play.

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Re: Relegation

by Old Man Andrews » 19 Mar 2018 10:23

Hoop Blah wrote:
Old Man Andrews wrote:Have you ever watched Gilkes before a game in the warm up? Does very, very little coaching.


Not that I'm passing comment on his ability as a coach, but what do you expect to see during the warm up?

The coaching is done during the week and the warm up is purely about getting mind and body ready to play.


I expect to see something similar to when Steven Reid was here to be honest. There was far more interaction with the players.

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Re: Relegation

by BR0B0T » 19 Mar 2018 11:02

Where are we going to hold the Releg8ion Party?

Image

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Re: Relegation

by Old Man Andrews » 19 Mar 2018 11:07

BR0B0T wrote:Where are we going to hold the Releg8ion Party?

Image


Purple Turtle. It is the home of success and failure.

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Re: Relegation

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2018 11:24

Bad News I'm afraid

I had a bet on William Hill for us to be relegated
but was so unimpressed with their service and
joke "Live Chat" I managed to get my bet refunded
and my account cancelled.


This, of course, guarantees we will be relegated.

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