Genuine question - how did the pundits know we were likely to be fighting relegation?

[BR0B0T]

Instead of attacking the OP on the grounds of pedancy, we could answer the sentiment of his post. Why weren't we heavily tipped to go up?

BroBot's tedious goal expectancy stat that everyone seems obsessed with and we finished in 3rd in defiance of?

Yep, i'd agree with you Ian! The most credible 'on-ball' predictive model we currently have

Pepe's explanation is the one I'd go with, he's also very handsome (alright babes! xx)

[Elm Park Kid]

Last season we narrowly won a number of 50-50 games, which helped maintain a 'winning mentality' and allowed us to play towards the top of our potential

This season our first eleven got worse due to injuries and transfers. We've lost/drawn a number of 50-50 games which has created a 'losing mentality' and that has lead to us playing poorly.

If you want to fight for promotion then the bare minimum you need in your squad is at least 4 defenders who are happy playing in their position (we don't), a decent defensive midfielder (we do in theory but is playing out of position, an attacking, goal scoring midfielder (we don't) and someone that represents a real threat upfront (we don't).

It all seems pretty straight-forward to me.

[Millsy]

Guys you are you are right to ask for references. I thought it was common knowledge so forgive the lack of references it probably had a bigger impact on me. THIS is almost certainly the article I may have read and it shocked me at the time.

So whoever says it was after a couple of games is spot on, my mistake. And to be fair it says a few points off the drop in the detail despite relegation in the title. A few off relegation is still a fight in my eyes. But still as Sang says I find it just as interesting now as I did then that we weren't tipped for a playoff spot and were tipped as a poor performer. Glad to see not everyone here is thick as shit...

Whilst I think Stam should go I definitely wouldn't have thought so at the time so this isn't me being wise after the event. I voted IN even in the first poll and I'd still say they were too pessimistic.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.getrea ... 529499.amp

[Snowflake Royal]

Guys you are you are right to ask for references. I thought it was common knowledge so forgive the lack of references it probably had a bigger impact on me. THIS is almost certainly the article I may have read and it shocked me at the time.

So whoever says it was after a couple of games is spot on, my mistake. And to be fair it says a few points off the drop in the detail despite relegation in the title. A few off relegation is still a fight in my eyes. But still as Sang says I find it just as interesting now as I did then that we weren't tipped for a playoff spot and were tipped as a poor performer. Glad to see not everyone here is thick as shit...

Whilst I think Stam should go I definitely wouldn't have thought so at the time so this isn't me being wise after the event. I voted IN even in the first poll and I'd still say they were too pessimistic.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.getrea ... 529499.amp

So some number crunching predicted a mid-table finish with a lower chance of relegation than finishing in the Play Offs?

[Millsy]

Guys you are you are right to ask for references. I thought it was common knowledge so forgive the lack of references it probably had a bigger impact on me. THIS is almost certainly the article I may have read and it shocked me at the time.

So whoever says it was after a couple of games is spot on, my mistake. And to be fair it says a few points off the drop in the detail despite relegation in the title. A few off relegation is still a fight in my eyes. But still as Sang says I find it just as interesting now as I did then that we weren't tipped for a playoff spot and were tipped as a poor performer. Glad to see not everyone here is thick as shit...

Whilst I think Stam should go I definitely wouldn't have thought so at the time so this isn't me being wise after the event. I voted IN even in the first poll and I'd still say they were too pessimistic.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.getrea ... 529499.amp

So some number crunching predicted a mid-table finish with a lower chance of relegation than finishing in the Play Offs?

Seems like it yeah

What shit journalism and I got sucked into it. Where does the flipping title "Reading FC tipped to be in Championship relegation battle" come from then if as you rightly say the article says. We have more chance percentage wise of finishing in playoffs than in relegation !?

Having said that in terms of ending league position it's certainly putting us down there.

A little confusing tbh. Probably just goes to show how fluid the league is / how crap the predictor is and how awful the article is. I don't think I went into it into too much depth tbh. My bad as the yanks would say. Whilst our playoff percentage was higher than relegation percentage compared to others our percentages put us at the lower end.

Having said that, discussion points still stand I.e. How when most of us would guess a playoff final team with millions spent on them for the next next season would not be at least playoff favourites?

Not sure of the point of this. It's certainly not a Stam bashing post as if anything it may vindicate him. Or maybe not I don't know. Just interesting (to me).

[Platypuss]

Guys you are you are right to ask for references. I thought it was common knowledge so forgive the lack of references it probably had a bigger impact on me. THIS is almost certainly the article I may have read and it shocked me at the time.

So whoever says it was after a couple of games is spot on, my mistake. And to be fair it says a few points off the drop in the detail despite relegation in the title. A few off relegation is still a fight in my eyes. But still as Sang says I find it just as interesting now as I did then that we weren't tipped for a playoff spot and were tipped as a poor performer. Glad to see not everyone here is thick as shit...

Whilst I think Stam should go I definitely wouldn't have thought so at the time so this isn't me being wise after the event. I voted IN even in the first poll and I'd still say they were too pessimistic.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.getrea ... 529499.amp

Such a great algorithm that it predicts the league winners will get 74 points?
Worthless.

[Lower West]

Having said that, discussion points still stand I.e. How when most of us would guess a playoff final team with millions spent on them for the next next season would not be at least playoff favourites?

Who hasn't spent millions? Just to stand still. Having said that spending money is no guarantee of success.

[Snowflake Royal]

Having said that, discussion points still stand I.e. How when most of us would guess a playoff final team with millions spent on them for the next next season would not be at least playoff favourites?

Who hasn't spent millions? Just to stand still. Having said that spending money is no guarantee of success.

Play off failures often struggle the next season too.

[BR0B0T]

Guys you are you are right to ask for references. I thought it was common knowledge so forgive the lack of references it probably had a bigger impact on me. THIS is almost certainly the article I may have read and it shocked me at the time.

So whoever says it was after a couple of games is spot on, my mistake. And to be fair it says a few points off the drop in the detail despite relegation in the title. A few off relegation is still a fight in my eyes. But still as Sang says I find it just as interesting now as I did then that we weren't tipped for a playoff spot and were tipped as a poor performer. Glad to see not everyone here is thick as shit...

Whilst I think Stam should go I definitely wouldn't have thought so at the time so this isn't me being wise after the event. I voted IN even in the first poll and I'd still say they were too pessimistic.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.getrea ... 529499.amp

Such a great algorithm that it predicts the league winners will get 74 points?
Worthless.

this is the ELO predicted outcomes from SkySports...



Genuinely have no fooking idea what the numbers in the article refer to

[double d]

Guys you are you are right to ask for references. I thought it was common knowledge so forgive the lack of references it probably had a bigger impact on me. THIS is almost certainly the article I may have read and it shocked me at the time.

So whoever says it was after a couple of games is spot on, my mistake. And to be fair it says a few points off the drop in the detail despite relegation in the title. A few off relegation is still a fight in my eyes. But still as Sang says I find it just as interesting now as I did then that we weren't tipped for a playoff spot and were tipped as a poor performer. Glad to see not everyone here is thick as shit...

Whilst I think Stam should go I definitely wouldn't have thought so at the time so this isn't me being wise after the event. I voted IN even in the first poll and I'd still say they were too pessimistic.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.getrea ... 529499.amp

Such a great algorithm that it predicts the league winners will get 74 points?
Worthless.

this is the ELO predicted outcomes from SkySports...



Genuinely have no fooking idea what the numbers in the article refer to

This must be the beginning of the season right? How the pfuck have they got Leeds higher to win the League then Wolves?

Why are Sky constanly bumming Leeds

[Mid Sussex Royal]

I'm pretty sure this was done about 10 games in when Leeds ere top.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Such a great algorithm that it predicts the league winners will get 74 points?
Worthless.

this is the ELO predicted outcomes from SkySports...



Genuinely have no fooking idea what the numbers in the article refer to

This must be the beginning of the season right? How the pfuck have they got Leeds higher to win the League then Wolves?

Why are Sky constanly bumming Leeds

Na, was clearly done today.

[double d]

this is the ELO predicted outcomes from SkySports...



Genuinely have no fooking idea what the numbers in the article refer to

This must be the beginning of the season right? How the pfuck have they got Leeds higher to win the League then Wolves?

Why are Sky constanly bumming Leeds

Na, was clearly done today.

Well that is obviously not the case is it Pepe.

[Denver Royal]

What shit journalism and I got sucked into it. Where does the flipping title "Reading FC tipped to be in Championship relegation battle" come from then?

It increases paper circulation, sells ads therein, and pays the bills. Oh, and click-bait, too.

Play off failures often struggle the next season.

Is the right answer.

[BR0B0T]

Play off failures often struggle the next season.

Is the right answer.

4fs....

[Denver Royal]

Play off failures often struggle the next season.

Is the right answer.

4fs....

What, you have never heard of this? Any theories for Sheff Wed and Fulham's struggles this season? Were you one of those who said in here, after we knocked them out of the playoffs last season, that Fulham...if they somehow managed to keep the same manager, and kept Sessignon, they would walk this league this season?

[BR0B0T]

Is the right answer.

4fs....

What, you never heard of this? Any theories for Sheff Wed and Fulham's struggles this season? Were you one of those who said in here that Fulham, if they somehow kept the same manager, and kept Sessignon, would walk this league this season?

the fact that the word 'often' was used....

go through all the playoff teams and give me a number (%) that struggled

(anecdotally) I can see that...

Ipswich were in the runnings 4 years in a row
Tranmere 3 times in a row
Leicester 3 times in a row
Birmingham 3 times in a row

.....etc etc

Year Winners Runners-up Semi-finalists
1987 Charlton Athletic Leeds United Oldham Athletic, Ipswich Town
1988 Middlesbrough Chelsea Bradford City, Blackburn Rovers
1989 Crystal Palace Blackburn Rovers Watford, Swindon Town
1990 Swindon Town1 Sunderland1 Newcastle United, Blackburn Rovers
1991 Notts County Brighton & Hove Millwall, Middlesbrough
1992 Blackburn Rovers Leicester City Derby County, Cambridge United
1993 Swindon Town Leicester City Portsmouth, Tranmere Rovers
1994 Leicester City Derby County Millwall, Tranmere Rovers
1995 Bolton Wanderers Reading Wolverhampton Wanderers, Tranmere Rovers
1996 Leicester City Crystal Palace Stoke City, Charlton Athletic
1997 Crystal Palace Sheffield United Wolverhampton Wanderers, Ipswich Town
1998 Charlton Athletic Sunderland Ipswich Town, Sheffield United
1999 Watford Bolton Wanderers Ipswich Town, Birmingham City
2000 Ipswich Town Barnsley Birmingham City, Bolton Wanderers
2001 Bolton Wanderers Preston North End Birmingham City, West Bromwich Albion
2002 Birmingham City Norwich City Wolverhampton Wanderers, Millwall
2003 Wolverhampton Wanderers Sheffield United Reading, Nottingham Forest
2004 Crystal Palace West Ham United Sunderland, Ipswich Town
2005 West Ham United Preston North End Ipswich Town, Derby County
2006 Watford Leeds United Preston North End, Crystal Palace
2007 Derby County West Bromwich Albion Wolverhampton Wanderers, Southampton
2008 Hull City Bristol City Crystal Palace, Watford
2009 Burnley Sheffield United Reading, Preston North End
2010 Blackpool Cardiff City Nottingham Forest, Leicester City
2011 Swansea City Reading Cardiff City, Nottingham Forest
2012 West Ham United Blackpool Birmingham City, Cardiff City
2013 Crystal Palace Watford Brighton & Hove Albion, Leicester City
2014 Queens Park Rangers Derby County Wigan Athletic, Brighton & Hove Albion
2015 Norwich City Middlesbrough Brentford, Ipswich Town
2016 Hull City Sheffield Wednesday Brighton & Hove Albion, Derby County
2017 Huddersfield Town Reading Sheffield Wednesday, Fulham

[Bossbluff]

Judging by previous attempts, It took us 8 years from our first challenge to be there again, 6 years for the next and 8 years again for the next...... So I would say we might be in with a shout in 2023!

4fs....

What, you never heard of this? Any theories for Sheff Wed and Fulham's struggles this season? Were you one of those who said in here that Fulham, if they somehow kept the same manager, and kept Sessignon, would walk this league this season?

the fact that the word 'often' was used....

go through all the playoff teams and give me a number (%) that struggled

(anecdotally) I can see that...

Ipswich were in the runnings 4 years in a row
Tranmere 3 times in a row
Leicester 3 times in a row
Birmingham 3 times in a row

.....etc etc

Year Winners Runners-up Semi-finalists
1987 Charlton Athletic Leeds United Oldham Athletic, Ipswich Town
1988 Middlesbrough Chelsea Bradford City, Blackburn Rovers
1989 Crystal Palace Blackburn Rovers Watford, Swindon Town
1990 Swindon Town1 Sunderland1 Newcastle United, Blackburn Rovers
1991 Notts County Brighton & Hove Millwall, Middlesbrough
1992 Blackburn Rovers Leicester City Derby County, Cambridge United
1993 Swindon Town Leicester City Portsmouth, Tranmere Rovers
1994 Leicester City Derby County Millwall, Tranmere Rovers
1995 Bolton Wanderers Reading Wolverhampton Wanderers, Tranmere Rovers
1996 Leicester City Crystal Palace Stoke City, Charlton Athletic
1997 Crystal Palace Sheffield United Wolverhampton Wanderers, Ipswich Town
1998 Charlton Athletic Sunderland Ipswich Town, Sheffield United
1999 Watford Bolton Wanderers Ipswich Town, Birmingham City
2000 Ipswich Town Barnsley Birmingham City, Bolton Wanderers
2001 Bolton Wanderers Preston North End Birmingham City, West Bromwich Albion
2002 Birmingham City Norwich City Wolverhampton Wanderers, Millwall
2003 Wolverhampton Wanderers Sheffield United Reading, Nottingham Forest
2004 Crystal Palace West Ham United Sunderland, Ipswich Town
2005 West Ham United Preston North End Ipswich Town, Derby County
2006 Watford Leeds United Preston North End, Crystal Palace
2007 Derby County West Bromwich Albion Wolverhampton Wanderers, Southampton
2008 Hull City Bristol City Crystal Palace, Watford
2009 Burnley Sheffield United Reading, Preston North End
2010 Blackpool Cardiff City Nottingham Forest, Leicester City
2011 Swansea City Reading Cardiff City, Nottingham Forest
2012 West Ham United Blackpool Birmingham City, Cardiff City
2013 Crystal Palace Watford Brighton & Hove Albion, Leicester City
2014 Queens Park Rangers Derby County Wigan Athletic, Brighton & Hove Albion
2015 Norwich City Middlesbrough Brentford, Ipswich Town
2016 Hull City Sheffield Wednesday Brighton & Hove Albion, Derby County
2017 Huddersfield Town Reading Sheffield Wednesday, Fulham

[Pepe the Horseman]

Judging by previous attempts, It took us 8 years from our first challenge to be there again, 6 years for the next and 8 years again for the next...... So I would say we might be in with a shout in 2023!

What, you never heard of this? Any theories for Sheff Wed and Fulham's struggles this season? Were you one of those who said in here that Fulham, if they somehow kept the same manager, and kept Sessignon, would walk this league this season?

the fact that the word 'often' was used....

go through all the playoff teams and give me a number (%) that struggled

(anecdotally) I can see that...

Ipswich were in the runnings 4 years in a row
Tranmere 3 times in a row
Leicester 3 times in a row
Birmingham 3 times in a row

.....etc etc

Year Winners Runners-up Semi-finalists
1987 Charlton Athletic Leeds United Oldham Athletic, Ipswich Town
1988 Middlesbrough Chelsea Bradford City, Blackburn Rovers
1989 Crystal Palace Blackburn Rovers Watford, Swindon Town
1990 Swindon Town1 Sunderland1 Newcastle United, Blackburn Rovers
1991 Notts County Brighton & Hove Millwall, Middlesbrough
1992 Blackburn Rovers Leicester City Derby County, Cambridge United
1993 Swindon Town Leicester City Portsmouth, Tranmere Rovers
1994 Leicester City Derby County Millwall, Tranmere Rovers
1995 Bolton Wanderers Reading Wolverhampton Wanderers, Tranmere Rovers
1996 Leicester City Crystal Palace Stoke City, Charlton Athletic
1997 Crystal Palace Sheffield United Wolverhampton Wanderers, Ipswich Town
1998 Charlton Athletic Sunderland Ipswich Town, Sheffield United
1999 Watford Bolton Wanderers Ipswich Town, Birmingham City
2000 Ipswich Town Barnsley Birmingham City, Bolton Wanderers
2001 Bolton Wanderers Preston North End Birmingham City, West Bromwich Albion
2002 Birmingham City Norwich City Wolverhampton Wanderers, Millwall
2003 Wolverhampton Wanderers Sheffield United Reading, Nottingham Forest
2004 Crystal Palace West Ham United Sunderland, Ipswich Town
2005 West Ham United Preston North End Ipswich Town, Derby County
2006 Watford Leeds United Preston North End, Crystal Palace
2007 Derby County West Bromwich Albion Wolverhampton Wanderers, Southampton
2008 Hull City Bristol City Crystal Palace, Watford
2009 Burnley Sheffield United Reading, Preston North End
2010 Blackpool Cardiff City Nottingham Forest, Leicester City
2011 Swansea City Reading Cardiff City, Nottingham Forest
2012 West Ham United Blackpool Birmingham City, Cardiff City
2013 Crystal Palace Watford Brighton & Hove Albion, Leicester City
2014 Queens Park Rangers Derby County Wigan Athletic, Brighton & Hove Albion
2015 Norwich City Middlesbrough Brentford, Ipswich Town
2016 Hull City Sheffield Wednesday Brighton & Hove Albion, Derby County
2017 Huddersfield Town Reading Sheffield Wednesday, Fulham

We got promoted the year after we lost against Walsall. We won the league three years after losing against Wolves. We got to the play off final two years after losing against Burnley. And we won the league the year after losing against Swansea. That's not exactly a bad record.

[Royal_jimmy]

The fact that even though we won a lot of games last year, we fluked many of them. We won many games that we created little in and we were struggling in the 2 years before that. We lost a few games with a whimper when the prediction was made