Royal Rother wrote:John Smith wrote:Jackson Corner wrote:They can score goals. How many of our overpaid squad will fancy going to Accrington on a wet Tuesday? Relegation would be catastrophic a huge wage bill would have to be slashed and that’s assuming anyone would be interested in buying the likes of Aluko, Mcleary, Moore, Blacket, Illyri, Swift, Barrow, Mannone, Gunter, McShane, Edwards. All with Premier League experience. Can’t see them fancying it at Roots Hall in front 4,000. I can see the owners pulling out and the club going into administration a 20 point penalty and a transfer imbargo. Relegation to league two further points deductions all assets sold to play debts including the ground for housing development. The club wound up and Reading Fc will no longer be in existence. A few brave souls will re start the club as FC Reading est 2025 in the isthmian league with home games at Scoures lane. Exciting times lie ahead.
All of this written because of a home defeatRoyal Rother wrote:Strap wrote.....
Burton are probably not capable of a significant upsurge but both Sunderland and Hull are highly likely to string a few wins together soon. A couple of the teams at the bottom always do.
We on the other hand are going to keep on losing.
Doomed I’m afraid.
Worst post ever made on this forum.
You clearly have no idea of both side's form or future fixtures.
Oh blah blah, says the fcuking forum halfwit himself.
So maybe Sunderland and Hull won’t win another game, but whoever they end up being, some teams ALWAYS start winning games against expectation towards the end of the season.
And the way things are going I can’t see one of those teams being Reading with Stam in charge.
Ok so maybe I’m the half wit and maybe it will only take 40 points this season but generally it takes circa 50 points to stay up.
Can anybody see Reading getting another 18 points?
Ok, so let's look at this in a bit more detail as I'm still at lunch. Lets assume that Hull and Sunderland improve from their current PPG to take 1.5 PPG over the the last 16 games. That would mean they would reach 50 and 49pts respectively. Burton would have 48 if going at 1.5 PPG. This would mean teams would almost double their current PPG total over the last 16.
If all 3 clubs manage that then if we pick up points at the same rate as we have throught the season, we will get to 49 and it will come down to goal difference.
A more realistic scenario, the bottom 3 improve their PPG by 50% so from approx 0.8 PPG to 1.2PPG. Would see sides get around 19/20 pts from here. Meaning we would need 14/15pts.
Lets now look at current form, I'll take the standard 6 games.
If we maintain our form over the last 6 to the end of the season, we would have 45pts (0,83PPG). To get to 46pts (to take GD out of the question), teams would need to improve recent form by the following:
Hull - From 0,5 PPG to 1,25 PPG
Sunderland - 1 PPG to 1.31 PPG
Burton - 0,66 PPG to 1,37 PPG
So assuming we get no worse, 2 of the bottom 3 would need to improve their form markedly to ensure we are relegated.
Again, this is no guarantee but shows that as it stands, we will have to get no better whilst teams who have been markedly worse than us will need to maintain a vastly higher PPG over the last 16 games.
We have shown that we can turn around poor form this season, our Nov/Dec run of 15pts from 24, was directly after a run of 5 pts from 24. We are currently on a run of 5 pts from 24.