Relegation Watch

[Ascotexgunner]

Not sure who the pundit was who was talking to Alan Brazil on Talksport this morning, but he thought we were the likely ones to go down having been to one of our games recently. Described us as "Utterly Awful"..... Really can't argue with that bit. I really am getting a bad feeling about Saturday, I know the gaps 5 points but if we lose I just think the damage maybe irreparable. This is definetley our biggest game this season so far.

[Lower West]

Sunderland may well have injury problems for Saturday's fixture. With 2 defenders taken off last night. Although the loss of Bacuna is immense. Seems as if the Gods are at least trying to give us every chance.

[Zip]

Hardly a difficult conclusion to come to - the usual bench marks have always been a point a game just about keeps you up and 2 points a game gets you up.

The best outcome for us in the Barnsley Vs Bolton game on Sat is a home win, with Bolton then playing Wolves next game that would mean a win on Saturday and we will just about be there.

In fact I think a Barnsley win could just about do for Bolton given the Wolves game following this, their dreadful away form, and then having lost 5 on the spin, 2 against big relegation rivals (sorry Parky).

You obviously haven’t reviewed Strap’s stats which show that in four of the past ten seasons we would be relegated with a points haul of between 46 and 48 points. We ourselves have been relegated on 53 points albeit from a lower division.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

We were relegated with 53 points when 4th from bottom, third tier to forth tier.

There are always anomolies - if you took a mean average since three points for a win you'd come up with around a point a game

[Zip]

[quote="Mid Sussex Royal"]We were relegated with 53 points when 4th from bottom, third tier to forth tier.

There are always anomolies - if you took a mean average since three points for a win you'd come up with around a point a game[/quote]

Indeed we were in 82/83....with only 17 defeats.
I haven’t seen the mean average for relegation but the past decade suggests 46 points is incredibly borderline.
Either way this year 46 should be enough for survival.

[paultheroyal]

Won’t want Bolton vs Barnsley being a draw. Barnsley win would be ideal, beat Sunderland and that will probably be us safe for what has been a shocking season but least it’s still alive!

I dont get the logic there. Barnsley have a game in hand against Forest who are in freefall. a Bolton win, or a draw coupled with a win for us Saturday would give us a 7/8 point gap over Barsnsley with 3 (4 for them)0 to play.

Show your workings please Paul

Would think both teams dropping 2 points > either grabbing 3

I want Barnsley to win though, and Bolton to pick up points in subsequent games. It'd be bloody marvellous to see Sunderland and Birmingham in the 3rd tier at the same time.

Bolton lose they are stuck on 39. Not a cat in hells chance they will beat wolves. So most points they can get is 45. One win from 4 will then see us safe because of goal difference. Of course Sunderland could go on a run, but that won’t happen.

Hope that’s clear ie my logic.

[Snowball]

Apropos of nothing much we’re Now 20/1 for the drop

28/1 on Sky

[Franchise FC]

I dont get the logic there. Barnsley have a game in hand against Forest who are in freefall. a Bolton win, or a draw coupled with a win for us Saturday would give us a 7/8 point gap over Barsnsley with 3 (4 for them)0 to play.

Show your workings please Paul

Would think both teams dropping 2 points > either grabbing 3

I want Barnsley to win though, and Bolton to pick up points in subsequent games. It'd be bloody marvellous to see Sunderland and Birmingham in the 3rd tier at the same time.

Bolton lose they are stuck on 39. Not a cat in hells chance they will beat wolves. So most points they can get is 45. One win from 4 will then see us safe because of goal difference. Of course Sunderland could go on a run, but that won’t happen.

Hope that’s clear ie my logic.

There's every chance that Wolves will be promoted this weekend.

After that all bets are off relating to them beating ANYONE, let alone a team that will be battling for points

[Stranded]

Show your workings please Paul

Would think both teams dropping 2 points > either grabbing 3

I want Barnsley to win though, and Bolton to pick up points in subsequent games. It'd be bloody marvellous to see Sunderland and Birmingham in the 3rd tier at the same time.

Bolton lose they are stuck on 39. Not a cat in hells chance they will beat wolves. So most points they can get is 45. One win from 4 will then see us safe because of goal difference. Of course Sunderland could go on a run, but that won’t happen.

Hope that’s clear ie my logic.

There's every chance that Wolves will be promoted this weekend.

After that all bets are off relating to them beating ANYONE, let alone a team that will be battling for points

They won't necessarily be Champions though, so will want to close that out if not. They will want to get to 100 point though so don't think they will quite be on the beach.

[Stranded]

Not sure who the pundit was who was talking to Alan Brazil on Talksport this morning, but he thought we were the likely ones to go down having been to one of our games recently. Described us as "Utterly Awful"..... Really can't argue with that bit. I really am getting a bad feeling about Saturday, I know the gaps 5 points but if we lose I just think the damage maybe irreparable. This is definetley our biggest game this season so far.

If we lose, we have 2 more winnable games ahead of us in Weds and Ipswich. Damage may be there but not irreprable, look at the fixtures for Brum for a start, they may struggle to get more than a couple of points (with Wolves and Sheff Utd up next, could well still be on 40pts going into last 2) and if Barnsley beat Bolton then Bolton will still be 3 behind with 4 to play and with their goal difference they would have to win 2 of them - likely the last 2 given the other is Wolves.

As long as we are a minimum of 3 points clear of either Brum/Bolton before the last day and don't see a freak stuffing, we're safe as the GD is heavily in our favour (+14 and +15)

[LUX]

Show your workings please Paul

Would think both teams dropping 2 points > either grabbing 3

I want Barnsley to win though, and Bolton to pick up points in subsequent games. It'd be bloody marvellous to see Sunderland and Birmingham in the 3rd tier at the same time.

Bolton lose they are stuck on 39. Not a cat in hells chance they will beat wolves. So most points they can get is 45. One win from 4 will then see us safe because of goal difference. Of course Sunderland could go on a run, but that won’t happen.

Hope that’s clear ie my logic.

There's every chance that Wolves will be promoted this weekend.

After that all bets are off relating to them beating ANYONE, let alone a team that will be battling for points

yep, I'm worried by this too. Wolves will be promoted if either Cardiff or Fulham do not win on Saturday. Then, on Sunday, they play Brum. With a hangover. The title might also be theirs if neither team win.

[LUX]

if Barnsley beat Bolton then Bolton will still be 3 behind with 4 to play

three to play after they play Barnsley

[Stranded]

if Barnsley beat Bolton then Bolton will still be 3 behind with 4 to play

three to play after they play Barnsley

Thanks for picking out the typo in that post Lux, appreciate it.

[LUX]

Bolton lose they are stuck on 39. Not a cat in hells chance they will beat wolves. So most points they can get is 45. One win from 4 will then see us safe because of goal difference. Of course Sunderland could go on a run, but that won’t happen.

Hope that’s clear ie my logic.

There's every chance that Wolves will be promoted this weekend.

After that all bets are off relating to them beating ANYONE, let alone a team that will be battling for points

yep, I'm worried by this too. Wolves will be promoted if either Cardiff or Fulham do not win on Saturday. Then, on Sunday, they play Brum. With a hangover. The title might also be theirs if neither team win.

actually, that is not quite true, they can only be promoted on Saturday if Fulham fail to win. Cardiff can lose and still catch Wolves on GD.

[LUX]

if Barnsley beat Bolton then Bolton will still be 3 behind with 4 to play

three to play after they play Barnsley

Thanks for picking out the typo in that post Lux, appreciate it.

all permutations are vividly in my mind, so this hit me!

[Hound]

There's every chance that Wolves will be promoted this weekend.

After that all bets are off relating to them beating ANYONE, let alone a team that will be battling for points

yep, I'm worried by this too. Wolves will be promoted if either Cardiff or Fulham do not win on Saturday. Then, on Sunday, they play Brum. With a hangover. The title might also be theirs if neither team win.

actually, that is not quite true, they can only be promoted on Saturday if Fulham fail to win. Cardiff can lose and still catch Wolves on GD.

I don't think Wolves will struggle to motivate themselves against Birmingham, whether they are up or not. Local rivals, would love to get them relegated. The title is all but theirs anyway. I can see them relaxing after this weekend though

[McDermolenko]

I don't see a single (realistic) way that we finish this season without having at least five points between us and the relegation zone.

What's with all the panic?!

[genome]

There's every chance that Wolves will be promoted this weekend.

After that all bets are off relating to them beating ANYONE, let alone a team that will be battling for points

yep, I'm worried by this too. Wolves will be promoted if either Cardiff or Fulham do not win on Saturday. Then, on Sunday, they play Brum. With a hangover. The title might also be theirs if neither team win.

actually, that is not quite true, they can only be promoted on Saturday if Fulham fail to win. Cardiff can lose and still catch Wolves on GD.

They still have a title to win.

[Silver Fox]

yep, I'm worried by this too. Wolves will be promoted if either Cardiff or Fulham do not win on Saturday. Then, on Sunday, they play Brum. With a hangover. The title might also be theirs if neither team win.

Not you too Lux!? I thought you were one of the sensible ones!

[LUX]

always a bit nervous, until it's done and dusted. Even in 2006 I was sweating on Leeds catching us, right up until the end, even when we were 20+ points clear of them. Real fans will remember them losing their game in hand on us at home to Palace. Felt like I'd won the lottery.