Relegation Watch

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Forbury Lion
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Re: Relegation Watch

by Forbury Lion » 12 Apr 2018 13:09

Relegation watch?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by CountryRoyal » 12 Apr 2018 13:10

Forbury Lion Relegation watch?


:lol:

Chuckle.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Mr Optimist » 12 Apr 2018 20:17

Ascotexgunner Not sure who the pundit was who was talking to Alan Brazil on Talksport this morning, but he thought we were the likely ones to go down having been to one of our games recently. Described us as "Utterly Awful"..... Really can't argue with that bit. I really am getting a bad feeling about Saturday, I know the gaps 5 points but if we lose I just think the damage maybe irreparable. This is definetley our biggest game this season so far.


The pundit you are referring to is Rupert Bell(end), a plummy Rodney who reports on golf and horse racing. What he failed to mention is Reading played with 10 men for more than an hour of the game. He obviously also didn't attend the reverse fixture this season where we tore his beloved European Champions of another lifetime a new arsehole.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Zip » 12 Apr 2018 20:24

McDermolenko I don't see a single (realistic) way that we finish this season without having at least five points between us and the relegation zone.

What's with all the panic?!



We are not safe. I remember under Branfoot we were “safe” and lost something like seven on the bounce and went into our final game against Chesterfield away heading for relegation. At half time we were two down and in the live table we were going down. We had a spectacular turnaround in the second half and won 4-2 and stayed up...but it was incredibly close.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Mr Optimist » 12 Apr 2018 20:27

And Rupert we may be toilet at the moment but we haven't spent over £40m on strikers over the last two years on the likes of McCormack, Kodija, Hogan and Adomah, to buy a place in the play off lottery.


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Mr Optimist » 12 Apr 2018 20:28

Zip
McDermolenko I don't see a single (realistic) way that we finish this season without having at least five points between us and the relegation zone.

What's with all the panic?!



We are not safe. I remember under Branfoot we were “safe” and lost something like seven on the bounce and went into our final game against Chesterfield away heading for relegation. At half time we were two down and in the live table we were going down. We had a spectacular turnaround in the second half and won 4-2 and stayed up...but it was incredibly close.


I was there! Lee Payne, currently residing in the where are they now file lol

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Zip » 12 Apr 2018 20:35

Mr Optimist
Zip
McDermolenko I don't see a single (realistic) way that we finish this season without having at least five points between us and the relegation zone.

What's with all the panic?!



We are not safe. I remember under Branfoot we were “safe” and lost something like seven on the bounce and went into our final game against Chesterfield away heading for relegation. At half time we were two down and in the live table we were going down. We had a spectacular turnaround in the second half and won 4-2 and stayed up...but it was incredibly close.


I was there! Lee Payne, currently residing in the where are they now file lol


Kudos. Was it 88/89?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Mr Optimist » 12 Apr 2018 20:43

No kudos for being old! Yes, think it was 88-89, we went not really thinking we were in real danger of going down as from from my fading memory it needed about three other scores to go against us but as you say, at half time reality dawned!

Lee Payne played his best game for us and saved the day along with super Trev. Bit of trouble with a gypo Chesterfield fan during half time on the away terrace too to add to the fun. We stayed over in Derby for the night and used it as an excuse to get mortalled!

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Re: Relegation Watch

by strap » 12 Apr 2018 20:59

Evening all, well as promised here is the last update of the spreadsheet, showing teams in teh bottom four positions with roughly 4 games to go, for each of the last 10 seasons.

The interesting thing to note that in 9 of the last 10 seasons, the teams in the bottom 3 after 42 games ended up being relegated.

Once again it looks as thought this season is panning out to be similar to 2011/12, so dare I say it, we might still need 49 points (or 7 more) to be sure of avoiding the drop - given that Portsmouth made the 2011/12 season a bit more complicated by having 10 points deducted. If they hadn't had that penalty, Barnsley would have gone down on 48.

I still reckon if we beat Sunderland we'll be safe, but of course let's beat Ipswich too just to be on the safe side!!



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Re: Relegation Watch

by Zip » 12 Apr 2018 21:39

Mr Optimist No kudos for being old! Yes, think it was 88-89, we went not really thinking we were in real danger of going down as from from my fading memory it needed about three other scores to go against us but as you say, at half time reality dawned!

Lee Payne played his best game for us and saved the day along with super Trev. Bit of trouble with a gypo Chesterfield fan during half time on the away terrace too to add to the fun. We stayed over in Derby for the night and used it as an excuse to get mortalled!


I remember at half time thinking that was it we were down as all the other scores were going against us. The only way I could keep up to date with the score was via Ceefax. I could barely look at the score in the second half. When I did we had scored three and were leading. I knew then we would survive and would avoid dropping back to the old fourth division. I think Stuart Beavon scored twice.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by leon » 12 Apr 2018 23:48

Zip
Mr Optimist
Zip

We are not safe. I remember under Branfoot we were “safe” and lost something like seven on the bounce and went into our final game against Chesterfield away heading for relegation. At half time we were two down and in the live table we were going down. We had a spectacular turnaround in the second half and won 4-2 and stayed up...but it was incredibly close.


I was there! Lee Payne, currently residing in the where are they now file lol


Kudos. Was it 88/89?


With a Spinal Tarp reference as well.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Silver Fox » 13 Apr 2018 09:18

Puts it all into perspective really

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Re: Relegation Watch

by John Smith » 13 Apr 2018 13:38

Mr Optimist The pundit you are referring to is Rupert Bell(end), a plummy Rodney who reports on golf and horse racing. What he failed to mention is Reading played with 10 men for more than an hour of the game. He obviously also didn't attend the reverse fixture this season where we tore his beloved European Champions of another lifetime a new arsehole.

Amen. oxf*rd Villa I really dislike them

Zip We are not safe. I remember under Branfoot we were “safe” and lost something like seven on the bounce and went into our final game against Chesterfield away heading for relegation. At half time we were two down and in the live table we were going down. We had a spectacular turnaround in the second half and won 4-2 and stayed up...but it was incredibly close.

Amazing.


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Mid Sussex Royal » 13 Apr 2018 20:20

strap Evening all, well as promised here is the last update of the spreadsheet, showing teams in teh bottom four positions with roughly 4 games to go, for each of the last 10 seasons.

The interesting thing to note that in 9 of the last 10 seasons, the teams in the bottom 3 after 42 games ended up being relegated.

Once again it looks as thought this season is panning out to be similar to 2011/12, so dare I say it, we might still need 49 points (or 7 more) to be sure of avoiding the drop - given that Portsmouth made the 2011/12 season a bit more complicated by having 10 points deducted. If they hadn't had that penalty, Barnsley would have gone down on 48.

I still reckon if we beat Sunderland we'll be safe, but of course let's beat Ipswich too just to be on the safe side!!



49 points? are you having a laugh? That means Barnsley getting 12 out of 15 points and Bolton getting 10 points out of 12....Your databases and stats may be amazing for history but that's just what it is - it has no relevance to what happens in the next three weeks.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Zip » 13 Apr 2018 20:43

Mid Sussex Royal
strap Evening all, well as promised here is the last update of the spreadsheet, showing teams in teh bottom four positions with roughly 4 games to go, for each of the last 10 seasons.

The interesting thing to note that in 9 of the last 10 seasons, the teams in the bottom 3 after 42 games ended up being relegated.

Once again it looks as thought this season is panning out to be similar to 2011/12, so dare I say it, we might still need 49 points (or 7 more) to be sure of avoiding the drop - given that Portsmouth made the 2011/12 season a bit more complicated by having 10 points deducted. If they hadn't had that penalty, Barnsley would have gone down on 48.

I still reckon if we beat Sunderland we'll be safe, but of course let's beat Ipswich too just to be on the safe side!!



49 points? are you having a laugh? That means Barnsley getting 12 out of 15 points and Bolton getting 10 points out of 12....Your databases and stats may be amazing for history but that's just what it is - it has no relevance to what happens in the next three weeks.


Strap should have stuck with his previous prediction. We will not need 49 points. I think a win tomorrow will be proven to be enough in the end.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by The Reverend » 13 Apr 2018 21:49

It's a shame Leeds always start with championship form, cos they're fcuking awful

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Sutekh
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Re: Relegation Watch

by Sutekh » 14 Apr 2018 08:19

Wouldn't a better and more meaningful stat be to look at the average points taken by teams finishing in the bottom 3/4 places from their final 3/4 games over the last few seasons. It's not likely to be 9+ points.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Franchise FC » 14 Apr 2018 10:40

Sutekh Wouldn't a better and more meaningful stat be to look at the average points taken by teams finishing in the bottom 3/4 places from their final 3/4 games over the last few seasons. It's not likely to be 9+ points.

Just to expand on that idea a bit, it might be better to look at the points gained by he teams in 21st/22nd place in the last 4 games.
If either Burton or Sunderland catch us we've lost all 4 and we're definitely down

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Re: Relegation Watch

by RoyalJones » 14 Apr 2018 18:13

Just my prediction based off of gut feeling (may contain silly errors):

Sunderland - 1 More Point = Relegation
Burton (H) - Draw
Fulham (A) - Loss
Wolves (H) - Loss

Burton: 2 More Points = Relegation
Sunderland (A) - Draw
Bolton (H) - Draw
Preston (A) - Loss

Barnsley: 3 More Points = Relegation
Leeds (A) - Draw
Notts Forest (A) - Draw
Brentford (H) - Draw
Derby (A) - Loss

Bolton: 4 More Points
Wolves (H) - Loss
Burton (A) - Draw
Notts Forest (H) - Win

Birmingham: 5 More Points
Wolves (A) - Loss
Sheff Utd (H) - Win
QPR (A) - Draw
Fulham (H) - Draw

Reading: 3 More Points
Sheff Wed (A) - Loss
Ipswich (H) - Win
Cardiff (A) - Loss

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Re: Relegation Watch

by windermereROYAL » 14 Apr 2018 18:41

If Fulham don't get a goal Wolves are promoted. just sayin. taking their foot off the gas and all that.

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