Relegation Watch

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Sutekh
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Re: Relegation Watch

by Sutekh » 13 Mar 2018 10:15

Well, at least it's not quite as bad as 20 years ago when Reading took 6 points from 54 as they managed just 2 wins from their last 18 games,

On the flip side though at least Reading could occasionally win at home on Saturdays that season.

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genome
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Re: Relegation Watch

by genome » 13 Mar 2018 10:34

I remember a winless run in 2004/5 that felt like it lasted an age, before we finally beat West Ham...

It lasted from 28th December, to the 12th March. No wins in 13. Bizarrely, we only went from 3rd to 6th.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 13 Mar 2018 23:13

Survival countdown:

22 points out of 27 available required, down from 25 out of 30.

Another step closer.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 14 Mar 2018 00:07

That VERY good side Wolves have still to play

Bolton
Burton
Birmingham
Sunderland
Wednesday
Hull

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Re: Relegation Watch

by strap » 14 Mar 2018 00:07

As promised, update after 37 games:

Image

Bit like 2011/12 now, but of Portsmouth spoilt that by having a points deduction. Without that, Barnsley would have been down on 48 points. The third relegation spot this season will in no way be with 48 points. If it's like 2013/14 we should be safe with 45 - so that's a point a game on average between now and the end of the season. Well tonight that actually seems a tall order!

Alternatively, we need to get 5 points less than Birmingham and Burton, and 7 points less than Sunderland in the last 9 games. Possibly do-able??


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 14 Mar 2018 00:14

Stranded wrote:

0-0-0 0-5 Wolves
0-0-0 0-3 Norwich[/b]
0-1-3 1-2 QPR
0-0-0 0-2 Villa
0-1-1 1-3 PRESTON
0-0-0 0-5 Fulham[/b]
0-1-3 1-1 SUNDERLAND
0-1-1 1-2 Wednesday
0-1-1 1-2 IPSWICH
0-0-0 0-3 Cardiff




It's your view but why do you see us suddenly getting beaten by 5 twice when we haven't come close to that all season? We haven't lost by more than 2 goals in the league all season and suddenly we are going to get beat by 5 twice and by 3 twice? We aren't doing well but that is still some nose dive off a cliff.

[/quote]


Well we shipped 3-0 at Wolves and it could very easily have been far worse...

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Rea Ding » 14 Mar 2018 01:07

Just seen Birmingham's next 4 games- Home to Hull, Ipswich, Burton and away to Bolton :shock:
if they go on a run and pick up points from these games we will be relying on Barnsley, I know they are on dreadful form but with those fixtures a slight turn in form could lead to a few wins

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Stranded » 14 Mar 2018 09:45

Snowball wrote:
Stranded wrote:

0-0-0 0-5 Wolves
0-0-0 0-3 Norwich[/b]
0-1-3 1-2 QPR
0-0-0 0-2 Villa
0-1-1 1-3 PRESTON
0-0-0 0-5 Fulham[/b]
0-1-3 1-1 SUNDERLAND
0-1-1 1-2 Wednesday
0-1-1 1-2 IPSWICH
0-0-0 0-3 Cardiff




It's your view but why do you see us suddenly getting beaten by 5 twice when we haven't come close to that all season? We haven't lost by more than 2 goals in the league all season and suddenly we are going to get beat by 5 twice and by 3 twice? We aren't doing well but that is still some nose dive off a cliff.




Well we shipped 3-0 at Wolves and it could very easily have been far worse...[/quote]

Yep, we lost 3-0 to the leaders, not 5. Awful admittedly but not fatal. "Could have beens" are pointless. For example: If we had held on to a 2-0 lead v Cardiff, we could have been challenging for the play-offs now.

The facts are we are 6 points clear (7 with our GD) so Brum, and/or Burton need to win at least 2 more than us (probably 3). Given that neither have won more than us, have lost 6 and 4 games more than us, have the worst goals for record and worst goals against records, and are below us over a 10 game form table (Burton 1pt better over 6) - whilst I am not exactly confident still think it will be shock if we end up in the bottom 3.
Last edited by Stranded on 14 Mar 2018 09:51, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Silver Fox » 14 Mar 2018 09:47

Snowball wrote:Well we shipped 3-0 at Wolves and it could very easily have been far worse...


I'm sure the committee will take that into account when deciding the relegation spots at the end of the season

What's that you say? The table is decided on actual points and goal difference not what could have happened? Phew!


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Re: Relegation Watch

by LUX » 14 Mar 2018 10:02

Snowball wrote:That VERY good side Wolves have still to play

Bolton
Burton
Birmingham
Sunderland
Wednesday
Hull



true, but they'll be up by then and on the beach.

Alternative pantswetting scenario: OMG what an easy run in, they're gonna match our 106.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Old Man Andrews » 14 Mar 2018 10:04

Silver Fox wrote:
Snowball wrote:Well we shipped 3-0 at Wolves and it could very easily have been far worse...


I'm sure the committee will take that into account when deciding the relegation spots at the end of the season

What's that you say? The table is decided on actual points and goal difference not what could have happened? Phew!


The old "Could have been......" rule. We should have appealed to the committee after Liam Moore missed the penalty at Wembely. We could have been in the Premier League.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Hound » 14 Mar 2018 10:04

LUX wrote:
Snowball wrote:That VERY good side Wolves have still to play

Bolton
Burton
Birmingham
Sunderland
Wednesday
Hull



true, but they'll be up by then and on the beach.

Alternative pantswetting scenario: OMG what an easy run in, they're gonna match our 106.


Thankfully Cardiff have put together such a good run, they'll need to keep on it to win the title.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Coppells Lost Coat » 14 Mar 2018 12:33

Rea Ding wrote:Just seen Birmingham's next 4 games- Home to Hull, Ipswich, Burton and away to Bolton :shock:
if they go on a run and pick up points from these games we will be relying on Barnsley, I know they are on dreadful form but with those fixtures a slight turn in form could lead to a few wins


Our form is the best incentive to give other teams below before going into games. They are a chasing pack and probably see Reading the target.
Looking at results, that Cardiff game really took its toll on us. Results wise we were a decent mid table side until they equalised......


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Hound » 14 Mar 2018 12:41

Coppells Lost Coat wrote:
Rea Ding wrote:Just seen Birmingham's next 4 games- Home to Hull, Ipswich, Burton and away to Bolton :shock:
if they go on a run and pick up points from these games we will be relying on Barnsley, I know they are on dreadful form but with those fixtures a slight turn in form could lead to a few wins


Our form is the best incentive to give other teams below before going into games. They are a chasing pack and probably see Reading the target.
Looking at results, that Cardiff game really took its toll on us. Results wise we were a decent mid table side until they equalised......


well that Cardiff goal, and then the early Ipswich goal the game after.

Obvs the extra points on the board would have been vital, but even if we had held on against Cardiff, there is nothing to suggest we wouldn't have collapsed at the next set back we had. Quite possibly even the game after

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Coppells Lost Coat » 14 Mar 2018 13:33

Hound wrote:
Coppells Lost Coat wrote:
Rea Ding wrote:Just seen Birmingham's next 4 games- Home to Hull, Ipswich, Burton and away to Bolton :shock:
if they go on a run and pick up points from these games we will be relying on Barnsley, I know they are on dreadful form but with those fixtures a slight turn in form could lead to a few wins


Our form is the best incentive to give other teams below before going into games. They are a chasing pack and probably see Reading the target.
Looking at results, that Cardiff game really took its toll on us. Results wise we were a decent mid table side until they equalised......


well that Cardiff goal, and then the early Ipswich goal the game after.

Obvs the extra points on the board would have been vital, but even if we had held on against Cardiff, there is nothing to suggest we wouldn't have collapsed at the next set back we had. Quite possibly even the game after


All i was saying was that seems to be a massive turning point in the season for us. Have been a some sort of freefall since, any other season we would be in the relegation zone by now - which open up a can of worms of at least there is 3 teams just as poor as us, but they have been all season.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by strap » 14 Mar 2018 14:32

We are currently 1 win in 17 league games. Our worst ever run of just 1 win in XX games was 21/04/12 to 26/12/12 when we had one win in 21 league games straddling our last LCh championship winning season and our last PL season.

That means we have to win one of Norwich (A), QPR (H), Aston Villa (A) or Preston (H) not to equal that "record".

Realistically, we may have to wait for Sunderland (H) or Sheffield Wednesday (A) to get that win, which means we could stretch the "record" to 22 league games if we beat Sunderland.

That current worst run straddled 2 seasons, and we went from 8th to 19th in the PL before breaking the cycle. The worst run like this in a single season was 1 win in 20 league games from 12/09/1987 to 26/12/1987, (funny how both runs finished the next match after Boxing Day).

In that run, we were 11th before the start of the 20 league game run, and were 23rd after the 20th league game, so dropped 12 league places.

Our current 1 win in 17 league games run started 11/12/2017 when we were 14th just before the game v Cardiff, and after 17 league games we have only slipped 5 place to 19th.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 14 Mar 2018 14:42

Strap, you seem to miss the point that we DID concede three goals, scoring nil, setting a new low

And, ATM, there is nothing to suggest a turn-around

PLENTY to suggest we could get even worse

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Re: Relegation Watch

by John Smith » 14 Mar 2018 14:43

strap wrote:Our current 1 win in 17 league games run started 11/12/2017 when we were 14th just before the game v Cardiff, and after 17 league games we have only slipped 5 placesto 19th.

I think this really reaffirms how much dross there is in this league. You have to look at Barnsley...

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Stranded » 14 Mar 2018 17:20

Hound wrote:
Coppells Lost Coat wrote:
Rea Ding wrote:Just seen Birmingham's next 4 games- Home to Hull, Ipswich, Burton and away to Bolton :shock:
if they go on a run and pick up points from these games we will be relying on Barnsley, I know they are on dreadful form but with those fixtures a slight turn in form could lead to a few wins


Our form is the best incentive to give other teams below before going into games. They are a chasing pack and probably see Reading the target.
Looking at results, that Cardiff game really took its toll on us. Results wise we were a decent mid table side until they equalised......


well that Cardiff goal, and then the early Ipswich goal the game after.

Obvs the extra points on the board would have been vital, but even if we had held on against Cardiff, there is nothing to suggest we wouldn't have collapsed at the next set back we had. Quite possibly even the game after


Have long said that for whatever reason that 8 or so minutes at the end of Cardiff/beginning of Ipswich has marked out the course of our season. Confidence was dented v Cardiff and the slow start the next game seemed to destroy it.

If we had held out, or more importantly if McShane's header with the last touch of the game had gone in rather than hitting the post then we would be comfortably mid-table. If we'd won a backs against the wall game, then confidence would have begun to come back as it was that sort of performance that got us 3rd last year.

Once that confidence went we were devoid of ideas.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Hound » 14 Mar 2018 17:26

There were plenty of other possible turning points as well though.

Bod's miss against Brizzle
Goal line scramble in the last min at home to Hull
Not holding out away at Forest
Not getting the pen in the last min at Millwall
Last min equaliser against Barnsley
Bacuna's penalty miss against Sheff U
Ruddy saving Barrow's effort at home to Wolves

Had any of those things gone our way, it may have changed the make up of the season.

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