Relegation Watch

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Stranded
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Re: Relegation Watch

by Stranded » 14 Apr 2018 18:45

windermereROYAL wrote:If Fulham don't get a goal Wolves are promoted. just sayin. taking their foot off the gas and all that.


They will want to get over 100 points, so no worries about them.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Sutekh » 14 Apr 2018 19:53

Stranded wrote:
windermereROYAL wrote:If Fulham don't get a goal Wolves are promoted. just sayin. taking their foot off the gas and all that.


They will want to get over 100 points, so no worries about them.


They’ll also want to secure the title ASAP.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Mid Sussex Royal » 14 Apr 2018 20:02

Could be safe now - will Birmingham get 4 points from their remaining games?

We need the auto place to go to the last day though as if Colin is up, Fulham will field a reserve side to save his main players for the play offs.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Sutekh » 14 Apr 2018 20:26

Mid Sussex Royal wrote:Could be safe now - will Birmingham get 4 points from their remaining games?

We need the auto place to go to the last day though as if Colin is up, Fulham will field a reserve side to save his main players for the play offs.


Who knows. Birmingham do have the worst run in of the struggling teams. Let’s say they get nothing whatsoever out of the Wolves and Fulham games, this would mean they’d need 4 points at least from playoff outsiders SheffU at home and their trip to a very erratic QPR.

But as we know everything will be twisty and turny for everyone still. Just hope Reading can show the necessary determination and grit to beat SheffW and Ipswich so whatever anyone else does becomes utterly irrelevant.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 14 Apr 2018 20:45

7/9 points required for guaranteed safety, down a solid three from 10 pre-game thanks to draws for us, Barnsley and Bolton.

Ticking down the tally slowly but surely.
Last edited by Snowflake Royal on 21 Apr 2018 17:56, edited 2 times in total.


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Re: Relegation Watch

by NewCorkSeth » 14 Apr 2018 20:47

Sutekh wrote:
Mid Sussex Royal wrote:Could be safe now - will Birmingham get 4 points from their remaining games?

We need the auto place to go to the last day though as if Colin is up, Fulham will field a reserve side to save his main players for the play offs.


Who knows. Birmingham do have the worst run in of the struggling teams. Let’s say they get nothing whatsoever out of the Wolves and Fulham games, this would mean they’d need 4 points at least from playoff outsiders SheffU at home and their trip to a very erratic QPR.

But as we know everything will be twisty and turny for everyone still. Just hope Reading can show the necessary determination and grit to beat SheffW and Ipswich so whatever anyone else does becomes utterly irrelevant.

It would be hilarious if Birmingham survive again due to another team deciding to rest all their players before the play-offs.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Pepe the Horseman » 14 Apr 2018 20:59

We're now a whopping 40/1 to go down, if anyone still thinks it could happen.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Lower West » 14 Apr 2018 23:23

Pepe the Horseman wrote:We're now a whopping 40/1 to go down, if anyone still thinks it could happen.


Far from safe.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 15 Apr 2018 00:06

Pepe the Horseman wrote:We're now a whopping 40/1 to go down, if anyone still thinks it could happen.

Of course it could happen. It very likely won't, but that's not the same thing.


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Zip » 15 Apr 2018 00:11

I don’t think it’s that unlikely for Bolton, Brum and Bsrnsley to reach 44 points. For Bolton that would be a win, a defeat and a loss. For Brum a win, a draw and two defeats. For Barnsley two wins and two defeats. So none of them will have to be in great form.

If JR suggests our players can now afford to be on the beach it suggests we can lose all of our remaining games and be fine. I hope the players don’t feel this way.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Dr_Hfuhruhurr » 15 Apr 2018 06:30

Zip wrote:I don’t think it’s that unlikely for Bolton, Brum and Bsrnsley to reach 44 points. For Bolton that would be a win, a defeat and a loss. For Brum a win, a draw and two defeats. For Barnsley two wins and two defeats. So none of them will have to be in great form.

If JR suggests our players can now afford to be on the beach it suggests we can lose all of our remaining games and be fine. I hope the players don’t feel this way.


You could put the bet on? The 40-1 is reported available at Ladbrokes and Corals.

Our advantage is that we arent in competition with one team, we need THREE teams to finish the season better than us and we have a win advantage over all of them. Plus these are teams that struggle to win. PLUS, you are not betting on them all getting 44 points, youre also betting on us not getting 44 points. So youre betting on us losing at home to Ipswich.

Actually, 40-1 is a tempting price. You could get 200 quid for a throwaway 5 quid if you really believe that we are so awful that we'll lose the Ipswich game. What is there to lose? Youd want to put it on before Brimingham's game in hand, though.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by double d » 15 Apr 2018 07:58

If Birmingham somehow manage to win this game today then it blows it all wide open

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Re: Relegation Watch

by JR » 15 Apr 2018 07:59

Dr_Hfuhruhurr wrote:
Zip wrote:I don’t think it’s that unlikely for Bolton, Brum and Bsrnsley to reach 44 points. For Bolton that would be a win, a defeat and a loss. For Brum a win, a draw and two defeats. For Barnsley two wins and two defeats. So none of them will have to be in great form.

If JR suggests our players can now afford to be on the beach it suggests we can lose all of our remaining games and be fine. I hope the players don’t feel this way.


You could put the bet on? The 40-1 is reported available at Ladbrokes and Corals.

Our advantage is that we arent in competition with one team, we need THREE teams to finish the season better than us and we have a win advantage over all of them. Plus these are teams that struggle to win. PLUS, you are not betting on them all getting 44 points, youre also betting on us not getting 44 points. So youre betting on us losing at home to Ipswich.

Actually, 40-1 is a tempting price. You could get 200 quid for a throwaway 5 quid if you really believe that we are so awful that we'll lose the Ipswich game. What is there to lose? Youd want to put it on before Brimingham's game in hand, though.


^this

In isolation each required run by the three below us is perfectly feasible, but collectively all to happen is highly highly unlikely.

I’m not suggesting the boys will take a beach mentality - would be foolish to with a new manager - just trying to help a few Royals fans sleep easier...


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Silver Fox » 15 Apr 2018 10:09

Same as it ever was really, which is why some of us haven’t been clutching our pearls since the new year

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 15 Apr 2018 10:34

We seem to be consistently about one bad round of results from being teetering on the edge of precarious. But good enough that despite our complete shambles we're picking up the points we need to survive.

The important thing is we're starting to do things that help mean those little bits of luck go our way. Under Stam we were like Sunderland's day yesterday... pen not given, shot off the line, scramble not tucked away just that little extra slice of fortune not there.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Zip » 15 Apr 2018 10:36

Dr_Hfuhruhurr wrote:
Zip wrote:I don’t think it’s that unlikely for Bolton, Brum and Bsrnsley to reach 44 points. For Bolton that would be a win, a defeat and a loss. For Brum a win, a draw and two defeats. For Barnsley two wins and two defeats. So none of them will have to be in great form.

If JR suggests our players can now afford to be on the beach it suggests we can lose all of our remaining games and be fine. I hope the players don’t feel this way.


You could put the bet on? The 40-1 is reported available at Ladbrokes and Corals.

Our advantage is that we arent in competition with one team, we need THREE teams to finish the season better than us and we have a win advantage over all of them. Plus these are teams that struggle to win. PLUS, you are not betting on them all getting 44 points, youre also betting on us not getting 44 points. So youre betting on us losing at home to Ipswich.

Actually, 40-1 is a tempting price. You could get 200 quid for a throwaway 5 quid if you really believe that we are so awful that we'll lose the Ipswich game. What is there to lose? Youd want to put it on before Brimingham's game in hand, though.



I don’t need to bet on anything to make a point but I do agree 40/1 is very generous. I think we will stay up but to suggest we are definitely safe on 43 points which is what JR implied is a bit complacent. I very much doubt Clement thinks we are already safe.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Zip » 15 Apr 2018 10:39

Snowflake Royal wrote:We seem to be consistently about one bad round of results from being teetering on the edge of precarious. But good enough that despite our complete shambles we're picking up the points we need to survive.

The important thing is we're starting to do things that help mean those little bits of luck go our way. Under Stam we were like Sunderland's day yesterday... pen not given, shot off the line, scramble not tucked away just that little extra slice of fortune not there.



Yes agreed. Would we have picked up seven home points under Stam from our last three matches at the Madejski? We have had to ride our luck at times. That luck was in short supply under Stam this season.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Zip » 15 Apr 2018 11:03

Some of the odd don’t make sense. Oddschecker have us at 40/1 to go down. Hull are completely safe on 47 points but are 20/1 for relegation.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Pepe the Horseman » 15 Apr 2018 11:22

Zip wrote:Some of the odd don’t make sense. Oddschecker have us at 40/1 to go down. Hull are completely safe on 47 points but are 20/1 for relegation.

That's just because it hasn't been updated. There isn't actually a price for them if you go to WillHill.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 15 Apr 2018 12:17

Zip wrote:
Snowflake Royal wrote:We seem to be consistently about one bad round of results from being teetering on the edge of precarious. But good enough that despite our complete shambles we're picking up the points we need to survive.

The important thing is we're starting to do things that help mean those little bits of luck go our way. Under Stam we were like Sunderland's day yesterday... pen not given, shot off the line, scramble not tucked away just that little extra slice of fortune not there.



Yes agreed. Would we have picked up seven home points under Stam from our last three matches at the Madejski? We have had to ride our luck at times. That luck was in short supply under Stam this season.

It's exceptionally unlikely we'd have got those seven points under Stam... but then we would have played completely differently. We'd have been more open and made more catastrophic mistakes with less fight, but would have had far more of the ball and probably a fair few more shots on target.

Might have snuck 5, probably somewhere between 2 and 4 for the five in total we've played since.

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