Relegation Watch

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Victor Meldrew
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Re: Relegation Watch

by Victor Meldrew » 25 Apr 2018 09:39

Snowflake Royal wrote:
Victor Meldrew wrote:
Snowflake Royal wrote:Given we were one nil up at HT and scored three second half goals, including one in the 90th minute, that's obvious nonsense.

And yes, I was there.


On checking, you are quite right Ian.
My memory has been playing tricks although I do recall that we didn't really press towards the end of the game and Lita's goal was in added time.
Glad to know that you were there-I guess my memories have to take in about 2000 or more games over the years whereas you just have to remember the few. :wink:

Don't worry, when I'm old I'll be just as forgetful.

Ian, IF you get old. :wink:

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Only one Trevor Morley
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Re: Relegation Watch

by Only one Trevor Morley » 25 Apr 2018 09:41

Ingham wrote:
Only one Trevor Morley wrote:Not sure if this has been pointed out but if Barnsley fail to beat Brentford we are safe no matter what happens in our two matches save for a couple of 8-0 defeats.

Barnsley not winning means they can’t catch us.

Bolton playing burton means that they couldn’t both catch us. If Burton lose or draw they can’t catch us. If burton win then Bolton would need to turn around a -16 goal difference to catch us.


But Barnsley can still catch us - 5 points behind with 2 games to play. Unlikely but still possible. A Reading defeat on Saturday combined with a Barnsley win will mean it is back to a nervous 6 May.


Which is why I said if Barnsley fail to beat Brentford.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Victor Meldrew » 25 Apr 2018 09:52

Sutekh wrote:Just think if Barnsley don't win Saturday, Reading could turn out and serve up the standard dross home performance against Ipswich and lose but still be safe.

Just wondering what route it will go down for Reading to get there (if at all of course).


If it happens that way with us losing do you think the players will do a lap of honour (shame)?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by paultheroyal » 25 Apr 2018 10:00

What does the percentage calculator say now?

We are 80/1 to go down. Whose on?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by double d » 25 Apr 2018 10:03

If we let that penalty in we conceded in the last minute and Barnsley didn't let a last min goal in at brizzle, we would be level with them on 40 points right now and in real danger.....


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 25 Apr 2018 10:04


44 -18 43 Reading
44 -30 43 Birmingham
44 -34 40 Bolton
44 -23 38 Barnsley
44 -44 38 Burton



Burton v Bolton
Barnsley v Brentford
QPR v Birmingham
Reading v Ipswich

Birmingham v Fulham
Bolton v Forest
Cardiff v Reading
Derby v Barnsley
Preston v Burton

If we were to lose at home to Ipswich, what might that mean?

I may be wrong in any of the following. Feel free to correct!

Scenario 1

Barnsley could beat Brentford and be 2 points behind us going into the last game.
Burton could beat Bolton and be 2 points behind us going into the last game.

OK, Bolton couldn’t then catch us (because of goal difference)
but we would need to avoid defeat at Cardiff in case Burton & Barnsley
each won their last game, sending us down with Bolton.

Scenario 2.

We lose, Burton-Bolton is a draw, Barnsley win.

Now Burton cannot catch us but a Bolton win in their last game
leaves them on 44, meaning we would again need a draw at Cardiff.



Scenario 3.

We lose to Ipswich, Barnsley win and Bolton WIN at Barnsley.

Now Bolton need a draw in their last game to be on 44. A win in that game would
put them on 46 points. It’s conceivable that we could need a win at Cardiff.

Scenario 4.

We lose. Barnsley and Burton win their last two games.

We would need a draw at Cardiff to be above Burton on GD.

If Barnsley won their last two games, a total of, say 3-0, and we had lost 0-2 to Ipswich, our GDs would be identical. 48-68 AND goals scored, so we would need a SCORE-DRAW at Cardiff.

Meanwhile Bolton, even if they win their last game, would be about 14 goals worse off on GD (less our 5-0 defeat at Cardiff and their 2-0 win (say) but we could be third bottom, going down with Sunderland and Bolton.

I left Birmingham out of this. They could easily lose their last two games (as we might) but they would still be well behind us on GD.

But the point is, if we lose to Ipswich then we open the door to Birmingham, even if they lose at QPR.

Presuming our defeat at Cardiff, they would need a point in their last game, at home to Fulham.



I DON’T think Barnsley will win their last two games. I think it’s very unlikely.

If Burton win their “much easier” game (home to Bolton), they just might manage the great escape with a win at Preston.

Birmingham could easily lose their last two games and still go down (they are 40/1) but I fancy them to get at least 1 point.


But my thoughts are this. What odds would you want for Reading to lose to Ipswich, Barnsley beat Brentford, Burton-Bolton is not a draw? 10/1? 20/1?

If we lost to Ipswich and Bolton/Barnsley won… (even if Birmingham lost 1-0)


45 -19 GD 43 Points Reading
45 -30 GD 43 Points Birmingham
45 -33 GD 43 Points Bolton
45 -22 GD 41 Points Barnsley



We would go into the last game knowing that a defeat could mean THREE teams could leap-frog us, Birmingham and Bolton by drawing, Barnsley by winning their final game.

Of course we could lose to Ipswich and the other teams lose too, but a loss to Ipswich would leave us wide-open to relegation on the final day. We are currently 100-1 to go down. That to me is almost like saying you can get 100-1 for Ipswich to win at The Madejski.

To re-iterate I DON’T think Barnsley will win two, I think Burton just might.

Bolton are poor but should they manage to win at Burton, they may get a second wind, then get something from their final game.

We absolutely must get something against Ipswich!

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Stockport Royal » 25 Apr 2018 10:21

double d wrote:If we let that penalty in we conceded in the last minute and Barnsley didn't let a last min goal in at brizzle, we would be level with them on 40 points right now and in real danger.....


Orrr

Imagine if we hadn't conceded a 91st minute equaliser away at Barnsley earlier in the season.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by windermereROYAL » 25 Apr 2018 10:26

double d wrote:If we let that penalty in we conceded in the last minute and Barnsley didn't let a last min goal in at brizzle, we would be level with them on 40 points right now and in real danger.....


What IF? :shock: . what does it matter?. it didnt happen.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by double d » 25 Apr 2018 10:41

windermereROYAL wrote:
double d wrote:If we let that penalty in we conceded in the last minute and Barnsley didn't let a last min goal in at brizzle, we would be level with them on 40 points right now and in real danger.....


What IF? :shock: . what does it matter?. it didnt happen.


God you are always so negative!

I was highlighting how small margins can change the entire season.


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Hound » 25 Apr 2018 10:52

double d wrote:
windermereROYAL wrote:
double d wrote:If we let that penalty in we conceded in the last minute and Barnsley didn't let a last min goal in at brizzle, we would be level with them on 40 points right now and in real danger.....


What IF? :shock: . what does it matter?. it didnt happen.


God you are always so negative!

I was highlighting how small margins can change the entire season.


get your point DD, about the small margins. But footy is small margins - think of all those late equalisers Sunderland have conceded recently - they dropped 8 points in 4 games due to them.

We've had many - Cardiff's late equaliser crossing the line by mms, Barnsley equaliser, Millwall penalty ridiculously not given, Obita's injury etc - as I'm sure every other team has

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Re: Relegation Watch

by genome » 25 Apr 2018 12:53

paultheroyal wrote:What does the percentage calculator say now?


1%.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by paultheroyal » 25 Apr 2018 13:06

genome wrote:
paultheroyal wrote:What does the percentage calculator say now?


1%.


Get in, we are safe.

Snowball clearly wasted typing up that post - took an hour from his life.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 25 Apr 2018 13:52

paultheroyal wrote:
genome wrote:
paultheroyal wrote:What does the percentage calculator say now?


1%.


Get in, we are safe.

Snowball clearly wasted typing up that post - took an hour from his life.



Read a book, walked 20,000 steps. That’s the morning done with...


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 25 Apr 2018 13:55

1% equates well with the 100/1 on offer at SKY

It is, of course highly likely that Sunderland and two other teams will fail more than Reading but lose to Ipswich and it might all get too real

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Stranded » 25 Apr 2018 14:06

Snowball wrote:1% equates well with the 100/1 on offer at SKY

It is, of course highly likely that Sunderland and two other teams will fail more than Reading but lose to Ipswich and it might all get too real


Stop being so pessimistic.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Sutekh » 25 Apr 2018 14:20

Snowball wrote:
We lose to Ipswich, Barnsley win and Bolton WIN at Barnsley.



Glad I'm not refereeing Barnsley on Saturday.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by double d » 25 Apr 2018 14:55

paultheroyal wrote:
genome wrote:
paultheroyal wrote:What does the percentage calculator say now?


1%.


Get in, we are safe.

Snowball clearly wasted typing up that post - took an hour from his life.


What life etc?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 25 Apr 2018 16:29

Stranded wrote:
Snowball wrote:1% equates well with the 100/1 on offer at SKY

It is, of course highly likely that Sunderland and two other teams will fail more than Reading but lose to Ipswich and it might all get too real


Stop being so pessimistic.



Neither pessimistic or optimistic, just stating a point

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Brum Royal » 25 Apr 2018 17:10

double d wrote:Choosing Cardiff or Fulham is like choosing Seville or Shipman.


I'll take the trip to Spain please. :wink:

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 25 Apr 2018 19:55

double d wrote:If we let that penalty in we conceded in the last minute and Barnsley didn't let a last min goal in at brizzle, we would be level with them on 40 points right now and in real danger.....

And IF the ref had got his cards out against QPR a last minute penalty wouldn't have mattered, and IF we got the second penalty shout we had v Sunderland @ 1-0 we'd still be well clear of it.

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