Relegation Watch

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From Despair To Where?
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Re: Relegation Watch

by From Despair To Where? » 25 Apr 2018 21:17

..and if my auntie had bollocks she'd be my uncle.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by double d » 25 Apr 2018 21:24

Snowflake Royal wrote:
double d wrote:If we let that penalty in we conceded in the last minute and Barnsley didn't let a last min goal in at brizzle, we would be level with them on 40 points right now and in real danger.....

And IF the ref had got his cards out against QPR a last minute penalty wouldn't have mattered, and IF we got the second penalty shout we had v Sunderland @ 1-0 we'd still be well clear of it.


If we didnt lose the po final we wouldn't be in this mess :(

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Denver Royal » 25 Apr 2018 22:01

double d wrote:If we didnt lose the po final we wouldn't be in this mess :(

.
We wouldn't be in this mess, but we'd likely be in a different one. Hard to envisage any of this lot in the PL right now. Someone please reassure me we'd have spent and upgraded the squad massively :|

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Re: Relegation Watch

by bcubed » 26 Apr 2018 00:21

Snowball wrote:1% equates well with the 100/1 on offer at SKY

It is, of course highly likely that Sunderland and two other teams will fail more than Reading but lose to Ipswich and it might all get too real


And a loss to Ipswich is really not that unlikely

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Re: Relegation Watch

by marlowuk » 26 Apr 2018 01:52

bcubed wrote:
Snowball wrote:1% equates well with the 100/1 on offer at SKY

It is, of course highly likely that Sunderland and two other teams will fail more than Reading but lose to Ipswich and it might all get too real


And a loss to Ipswich is really not that unlikely

Although we are on a run of 5 home games unbeaten!


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2018 17:58

Stranded wrote:
Snowball wrote:1% equates well with the 100/1 on offer at SKY

It is, of course highly likely that Sunderland and two other teams will fail more than Reading but lose to Ipswich and it might all get too real


Stop being so pessimistic.


Sorry, what?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2018 18:06

Snowball wrote:
44 -18 43 Reading
44 -30 43 Birmingham
44 -34 40 Bolton
44 -23 38 Barnsley
44 -44 38 Burton



Burton v Bolton
Barnsley v Brentford
QPR v Birmingham
Reading v Ipswich

Birmingham v Fulham
Bolton v Forest
Cardiff v Reading
Derby v Barnsley
Preston v Burton

If we were to lose at home to Ipswich, what might that mean?


I may be wrong in any of the following. Feel free to correct!

Scenario 1

Barnsley could beat Brentford and be 2 points behind us going into the last game.

Burton could beat Bolton and be 2 points behind us going into the last game.


OK, Bolton couldn’t then catch us (because of goal difference)
but we would need to avoid defeat at Cardiff in case Burton & Barnsley
each won their last game, sending us down with Bolton.






Scenario 4.

We lose. Barnsley and Burton win their last two games.

We would need a draw at Cardiff to be above Burton on GD.


If Barnsley won their last two games, a total of, say 3-0, and we had lost 0-2 to Ipswich, our GDs would be identical. 48-68 AND goals scored, so we would need a SCORE-DRAW at Cardiff.

So, even my pessimism wasn't pessimistic enough!

Meanwhile Bolton, even if they win their last game, would be about 14 goals worse off on GD (less our 5-0 defeat at Cardiff and their 2-0 win (say) but we could be third bottom, going down with Sunderland and Bolton.



I left Birmingham out of this. They could easily lose their last two games (as we might) but they would still be well behind us on GD.

But the point is, if we lose to Ipswich then we open the door to Birmingham, even if they lose at QPR.

Presuming our defeat at Cardiff, they would need a point in their last game
, at home to Fulham.



I DON’T think Barnsley will win their last two games. I think it’s very unlikely. (Half-way there!)

If Burton win their “much easier” game (home to Bolton), they just might manage the great escape with a win at Preston.

I still think this is odds-against, but now VERY possible


Birmingham could easily lose their last two games and still go down (they are 40/1) but I fancy them to get at least 1 point.





We would go into the last game knowing that a defeat could mean THREE teams
could leap-frog us


Of course we could lose to Ipswich and the other teams lose too,
but a loss to Ipswich would leave us wide-open to relegation on the final day.
We are currently 100-1 to go down.
That to me is almost like saying you can get 100-1 for Ipswich to win at The Madejski.



We absolutely must get something against Ipswich!



What was that about being pessimistic?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Royal_jimmy » 28 Apr 2018 18:16

We are 40/1 to go down despite that shambles

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Pepe the Horseman » 28 Apr 2018 18:29

50 with Betway. Would still take a freak set of results, but I'm not taking any chances.


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Franchise FC » 28 Apr 2018 18:33

So, assuming we don't' lose by enough to screw our goal difference by c16, we ONLY need one of the following :

1. Barnsley to fail to win AWAY at Derby who need at least a point to make it to the play-offs
2. Burton to fail to win AWAY at Preston who need points to make the play-offs
3. Birmingham to lose at home to Fulham who need the points for a chance at automatic promotion and are unbeaten for about 40 years

So, all in all, we're bugger'd. However unlikely that lot is, you just can't help thinking that Birmingham will draw and both Barnsley and Burton will win - it just seems the fates are heading that way.

Or we could go for the alternative disaster that is a 12-0 defeat at Cardiff while Bolton beat Forest 2-0

Is that pessimistic enough ?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2018 18:35

Pepe the Horseman wrote:50 with Betway. Would still take a freak set of results, but I'm not taking any chances.


That 50-1 is AMAZING. They are 66-1 on SKY

It means we have to lose

OK but we SHOULD lose at Cardiff

It means Birmingham need a point. They will probably be about 2-1 or 5-2 for a WD

Barnsley need a win, Burton need a win. What are they? About 3-1 to win?

3/1 Barnsley win
3/1 Burton win (a Derby at Derby)
3/1 say (Birmingham)

is a 63-1 treble (returns [4x4x4])

So 66-1 is about right


Not "likely" and Foinavon will never win a Grand National.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 28 Apr 2018 18:37

One thing that seems almost certain, if we stay up it is likely to have oxf*rd all to do with us picking up a result and everything to do with someone else failing to.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Longhorn1970 » 28 Apr 2018 18:40

Snowball wrote:
Pepe the Horseman wrote:50 with Betway. Would still take a freak set of results, but I'm not taking any chances.


That 50-1 is AMAZING. They are 66-1 on SKY

It means we have to lose

OK but we SHOULD lose at Cardiff

It means Birmingham need a point. They will probably be about 2-1 or 5-2 for a WD

Barnsley need a win, Burton need a win. What are they? About 3-1 to win?

3/1 Barnsley win
3/1 Burton win (a Derby at Derby)
3/1 say (Birmingham)

is a 63-1 treble (returns [4x4x4])

So 66-1 is about right


Not "likely" and Foinavon will never win a Grand National.


Worth a tenner ?


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2018 18:42

Barnsley are 17/4 to win

Burton are 5/1 to win

Birmingham are about 6/4 to avoid defeat

The treble would return £78.75 for a £1 stake

But you need to multiply that by 1.5 (Cardiff are 1/2 to win)

So really the odds are 117/1 against reading going down


Factoring in Sod's Law, they are evens

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2018 18:43

Longhorn1970 wrote:
Snowball wrote:
Pepe the Horseman wrote:50 with Betway. Would still take a freak set of results, but I'm not taking any chances.


That 50-1 is AMAZING. They are 66-1 on SKY

It means we have to lose

OK but we SHOULD lose at Cardiff

It means Birmingham need a point. They will probably be about 2-1 or 5-2 for a WD

Barnsley need a win, Burton need a win. What are they? About 3-1 to win?

3/1 Barnsley win
3/1 Burton win (a Derby at Derby)
3/1 say (Birmingham)

is a 63-1 treble (returns [4x4x4])

So 66-1 is about right


Not "likely" and Foinavon will never win a Grand National.


Worth a tenner ?


Better to bet on Barnsley win, Burton win, Reading lose and Fulham failing to win

That is 117-1

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2018 18:45

Pepe the Horseman wrote:50 with Betway. Would still take a freak set of results, but I'm not taking any chances.


66/1 on Sky but you can get 117/1 for the FOUR results

Reading to lose
Fulham to not win
Barnsley and Burton to win

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Franchise FC » 28 Apr 2018 18:45

Snowball wrote:Barnsley are 17/4 to win

Burton are 5/1 to win

Birmingham are about 6/4 to avoid defeat

The treble would return £78.75 for a £1 stake

But you need to multiply that by 1.5 (Cardiff are 1/2 to win)

So really the odds are 117/1 against reading going down


Factoring in Sod's Law, they are evens

It's actually worth a tenner on that lot as an accumulator - very happy if I lose the bet, slightly richer if I don't

However, may feel dirty betting against us

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2018 18:48

The individual match odds may be better.

That was just the first batch I could find.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2018 18:50

Just imagine 1,000 fans bet £100 at 120/1 (12,100 return) = 12,100,000 in total

That 12 Mill would help the club in League One.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by CountryRoyal » 28 Apr 2018 19:50

Snowball wrote:Just imagine 1,000 fans bet £100 at 120/1 (12,100 return) = 12,100,000 in total

That 12 Mill would help the club in League One.


We don’t have 500 fans willing to pay £30 for an away ticket so not sure where we’re going to find all these fans willing to pop in £100 for the cause. :lol:

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