Relegation Watch

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Snowball
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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2018 13:17

John Smith wrote:
Snowball wrote:11/1 to be relegated (SKY BET)

Although I think we will avoid going down, 11/1 is a very good bet.

We obviously have different views on finances because I'd say a bet that's certain to lose is a shit one


The wrong way to look at betting

You make money by taking odds which seem better than they should be.

A specific win or loss is not the point.

If you think X should be 5/1 but you get 10/1 then you will win in the long run


I have jut looked at the last X games. They look horrendous (see next post)

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Re: Relegation Watch

by strap » 09 Mar 2018 13:22

Silver Fox wrote:Glad you're finally seeing the light strap!! :wink:


I think it is only just dawning on me how bad the teams below us really are! Having seen our lot this season, that truly staggers me.

Will be at MadStad tomorrow to see if we've improved at all since my last trip v Wolves. I no longer count the games I've waited to witness home win - I now count the seasons, honestly!!

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2018 13:32

John, looking at games left

I think, unless we get a freak result based on a lot of luck
or a sudden reversal of form we should, logically get HEAVY defeats
at Wolves (0-5), Norwich (0-3), Villa (0-2), Fulham (0-5) and home to Preston (1-3)

I'm predicting our GD will be 19-25 worse than it is now, unless there is a freak reversal
so that's another point lost

That leaves LEEDS, QPR (I think QPR will beat us), IPSWICH (as QPR)
Sunderland at home (we should win but if we are in the bottom 3, we won't)
and away to Wednesday

I can only see four/five games where we have ANY chance of winning
Leeds, Sunderland, QPR, Ipswich at home and away to Wednesday

But Wednesday should beat us up there, meaning we need to get the points
at home v leeds, Sunderland, Ipswich and QPR

I just don't see it. I would say if we lose against Leeds we will go down.

in truth a draw is poor. We need to win and only blind optimism says we will

0-1-3 0-1 LEEDS
0-0-0 0-5 Wolves
0-0-0 0-3 Norwich[/b]
0-1-3 1-2 QPR
0-0-0 0-2 Villa
0-1-1 1-3 PRESTON
0-0-0 0-5 Fulham[/b]
0-1-3 1-1 SUNDERLAND
0-1-1 1-2 Wednesday
0-1-1 1-2 IPSWICH
0-0-0 0-3 Cardiff

5-29

If we could beat Leeds 2-0, relax a little we might finish well-clear,
but lose tomorrow and I could see us finishing bottom, absolutely

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2018 13:38

strap wrote:
I think it is only just dawning on me how bad the teams below us really are! Having seen our lot this season, that truly staggers me.



They are our only hope, but we seem to be getting worse and we have some nightmare away games

Wolves,TOP, Cardiff, (2nd) Villa, (3rd), Fulham, (4th)

plus Norwich & Wednesday where we've had some pummelling

We also have Preston (8th) at home and Ipswich (12th)

It wouldn't be remarkable to lose all 8 of those games.

I know football is full of surprises, but....

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2018 13:56

Looking at the odds to go down and the six clubs below us

Burton
Barnsley
Birmingham
Sunderland
Bolton
Hull

We have just ONE game left against these bottom six
and two games against rank outsiders for relegation
QPR (home) and Wednesday, (away)
5 points and 2 points above us respectively

I'm going to have to stop looking. That 100/1 bet to be bottom is very tempting.


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John Smith
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Re: Relegation Watch

by John Smith » 09 Mar 2018 14:15

Snowball wrote:Looking at the odds to go down and the six clubs below us

Burton
Barnsley
Birmingham
Sunderland
Bolton
Hull

We have just ONE game left against these bottom six
and two games against rank outsiders for relegation
QPR (home) and Wednesday, (away)
5 points and 2 points above us respectively

I'm going to have to stop looking. That 100/1 bet to be bottom is very tempting.

Bizarre and very weird logic. If anything we don't want to be playing the sides below us in this form as we are then dropping what is more like 6 points for every defeat. Playing the mid table dross like Leeds is perfect, especially as the season winds to an end, we are much more likely to be up for the fight.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by strap » 09 Mar 2018 14:34

John Smith wrote:
Snowball wrote:Looking at the odds to go down and the six clubs below us

Burton
Barnsley
Birmingham
Sunderland
Bolton
Hull

We have just ONE game left against these bottom six
and two games against rank outsiders for relegation
QPR (home) and Wednesday, (away)
5 points and 2 points above us respectively

I'm going to have to stop looking. That 100/1 bet to be bottom is very tempting.

Bizarre and very weird logic. If anything we don't want to be playing the sides below us in this form as we are then dropping what is more like 6 points for every defeat. Playing the mid table dross like Leeds is perfect, especially as the season winds to an end, we are much more likely to be up for the fight.


I kind of agree with you John, but Snowball has a point too. In my Excel relegation predictor, I only see 1 win between now and the end of season for 6 of the bottom 7 teams, and I don't see Hull winning any.

We only have one game v Bottom 7, (I have that as a 1-0 win to us v Sunderland).
Burton have 4 of 11, Bolton & Birmingham have 3 of 10, Hull 2 of 11, Sunderland 2 of 11 and Barnsley 1 of 11.

Aside from our home win v Sunderland, I have us losing all remaining away games, except a draw at Norwich, and rather oddly drawing our other 4 homes games. Mmm. Might need to revisit that.

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John Smith
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Re: Relegation Watch

by John Smith » 09 Mar 2018 14:37

strap wrote:I kind of agree with you John, but Snowball has a point too. In my Excel relegation predictor, I only see 1 win between now and the end of season for 6 of the bottom 7 teams, and I don't see Hull winning any.

We only have one game v Bottom 7, (I have that as a 1-0 win to us v Sunderland).
Burton have 4 of 11, Bolton & Birmingham have 3 of 10, Hull 2 of 11, Sunderland 2 of 11 and Barnsley 1 of 11.

Aside from our home win v Sunderland, I have us losing all remaining away games, except a draw at Norwich, and rather oddly drawing our other 4 homes games. Mmm. Might need to revisit that.

Sunderland tend to score in most games.

I think we will get something at Wednesday too.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Stranded » 09 Mar 2018 14:45

Snowball wrote:John, looking at games left

I think, unless we get a freak result based on a lot of luck
or a sudden reversal of form we should, logically get HEAVY defeats
at Wolves (0-5), Norwich (0-3), Villa (0-2), Fulham (0-5) and home to Preston (1-3)

I'm predicting our GD will be 19-25 worse than it is now, unless there is a freak reversal
so that's another point lost

That leaves LEEDS, QPR (I think QPR will beat us), IPSWICH (as QPR)
Sunderland at home (we should win but if we are in the bottom 3, we won't)
and away to Wednesday

I can only see four/five games where we have ANY chance of winning
Leeds, Sunderland, QPR, Ipswich at home and away to Wednesday

But Wednesday should beat us up there, meaning we need to get the points
at home v leeds, Sunderland, Ipswich and QPR

I just don't see it. I would say if we lose against Leeds we will go down.

in truth a draw is poor. We need to win and only blind optimism says we will

0-1-3 0-1 LEEDS
0-0-0 0-5 Wolves
0-0-0 0-3 Norwich[/b]
0-1-3 1-2 QPR
0-0-0 0-2 Villa
0-1-1 1-3 PRESTON
0-0-0 0-5 Fulham[/b]
0-1-3 1-1 SUNDERLAND
0-1-1 1-2 Wednesday
0-1-1 1-2 IPSWICH
0-0-0 0-3 Cardiff

5-29

If we could beat Leeds 2-0, relax a little we might finish well-clear,
but lose tomorrow and I could see us finishing bottom, absolutely


It's your view but why do you see us suddenly getting beaten by 5 twice when we haven't come close to that all season? We haven't lost by more than 2 goals in the league all season and suddenly we are going to get beat by 5 twice and by 3 twice? We aren't doing well but that is still some nose dive off a cliff.

Could equally be argued that these away games give us nothing to lose and we could end up fluking a result somewhere. Our best performances this season have come against the clubs at the top of the table after all.


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John Smith
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Re: Relegation Watch

by John Smith » 09 Mar 2018 15:09

Stranded wrote:
Snowball wrote:John, looking at games left

I think, unless we get a freak result based on a lot of luck
or a sudden reversal of form we should, logically get HEAVY defeats
at Wolves (0-5), Norwich (0-3), Villa (0-2), Fulham (0-5) and home to Preston (1-3)

I'm predicting our GD will be 19-25 worse than it is now, unless there is a freak reversal
so that's another point lost

That leaves LEEDS, QPR (I think QPR will beat us), IPSWICH (as QPR)
Sunderland at home (we should win but if we are in the bottom 3, we won't)
and away to Wednesday

I can only see four/five games where we have ANY chance of winning
Leeds, Sunderland, QPR, Ipswich at home and away to Wednesday

But Wednesday should beat us up there, meaning we need to get the points
at home v leeds, Sunderland, Ipswich and QPR

I just don't see it. I would say if we lose against Leeds we will go down.

in truth a draw is poor. We need to win and only blind optimism says we will

0-1-3 0-1 LEEDS
0-0-0 0-5 Wolves
0-0-0 0-3 Norwich[/b]
0-1-3 1-2 QPR
0-0-0 0-2 Villa
0-1-1 1-3 PRESTON
0-0-0 0-5 Fulham[/b]
0-1-3 1-1 SUNDERLAND
0-1-1 1-2 Wednesday
0-1-1 1-2 IPSWICH
0-0-0 0-3 Cardiff

5-29

If we could beat Leeds 2-0, relax a little we might finish well-clear,
but lose tomorrow and I could see us finishing bottom, absolutely


It's your view but why do you see us suddenly getting beaten by 5 twice when we haven't come close to that all season? We haven't lost by more than 2 goals in the league all season and suddenly we are going to get beat by 5 twice and by 3 twice? We aren't doing well but that is still some nose dive off a cliff.

Could equally be argued that these away games give us nothing to lose and we could end up fluking a result somewhere. Our best performances this season have come against the clubs at the top of the table after all.

Absolutely Stranded.

Snowball, I think you whilst you might not be wrong with your predictions, you must be going on the basis that more than three teams below us are going to start getting results - do you realise from a clearly realistic point of view - how unlikely that is to happen. Where are Sunderland and Burton getting points from? OK, Birmingham have got new manager and Barnsley and may get out but there's still Hull and Bolton. It's all too farfetched.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Stranded » 09 Mar 2018 15:20

As mentioned on another thread,

Over a 10 game form table, there are currently 4 teams below us.

We play 3 of them before the end of the season: Leeds, Sheff Wed and Sunderland.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2018 15:32

John Smith wrote:
Snowball wrote:Looking at the odds to go down and the six clubs below us

Burton
Barnsley
Birmingham
Sunderland
Bolton
Hull

We have just ONE game left against these bottom six
and two games against rank outsiders for relegation
QPR (home) and Wednesday, (away)
5 points and 2 points above us respectively

I'm going to have to stop looking. That 100/1 bet to be bottom is very tempting.

Bizarre and very weird logic. If anything we don't want to be playing the sides below us in this form as we are then dropping what is more like 6 points for every defeat. Playing the mid table dross like Leeds is perfect, especially as the season winds to an end, we are much more likely to be up for the fight.


Nothing illogical at all. First, though we weren't likely to beat those six (current form) we are LESS likely to beat Wolves, Cardiff, Villa, Fulham, Preston, Ipswich, Norwich, Wednesday etc, sides that are a LOT better than the bottom six.

There is absolutely no reason in logic to think we can beat mid-table sides.

We have shown very, very little fight

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2018 15:33

Stranded wrote:As mentioned on another thread,

Over a 10 game form table, there are currently 4 teams below us.

We play 3 of them before the end of the season: Leeds, Sheff Wed and Sunderland.



And really, we need to win all three to have a chance. Maybe WW and a draw in Sheffield

Where else are we going to get wins?


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Stockport Royal » 09 Mar 2018 15:36

How about we just concentrate on getting something out of Leeds and then see how we go?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2018 15:39

Stranded wrote:


It's your view but why do you see us suddenly getting beaten by 5 twice when we haven't come close to that all season? We haven't lost by more than 2 goals in the league all season and suddenly we are going to get beat by 5 twice and by 3 twice? We aren't doing well but that is still some nose dive off a cliff.

Could equally be argued that these away games give us nothing to lose and we could end up fluking a result somewhere. Our best performances this season have come against the clubs at the top of the table after all.


I think, ATM we would lose to a lot of League 1 sides and Wolves are clearly top notch, will probably finish with over 100 points. Thus I can see us shipping 4/5/6 up there. I'm aware we haven't let in 3/4/5/6 but IMO our defence is now a total shambles and getting worse. We don't often do well at Wolves.

We have history of being smashed at Fulham. They are improving every game while we are imploding, and in two recent seasons we have shipped 4 and 5 there.

Norwich, while no great shakes this season are playing a fair bit better than us and they did us for 7 last year.

But my main reason for such predictions is we are showing very little fight, seem to be getting worse, crowds lower and more miserable.

I think if we lose to Leeds we will finish bottom

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2018 15:39

Stockport Royal wrote:How about we just concentrate on getting something out of Leeds and then see how we go?


Of course. Goes without saying.


(Like home to crappy Bolton, Barnsley, Burton...)

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2018 15:41

Stranded wrote:


Could equally be argued that these away games give us nothing to lose and we could end up fluking a result somewhere. Our best performances this season have come against the clubs at the top of the table after all.



The trouble is we essentially are going to have to win at one of the big four.

It may happen. I want it to happen, but there's very little logic
to say it WILL happen

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Re: Relegation Watch

by John Smith » 09 Mar 2018 15:44

Snowball wrote:But my main reason for such predictions is we are showing very little fight, seem to be getting worse, crowds lower and more miserable.

I think if we lose to Leeds we will finish bottom

I totally disagree. Derby was very good and Bolton whilst not brilliant was 'fine'. Not great, granted but we got a point and the teams below lost so we made ground. We are moving in the right direction.

Who's to say we can't scrape a point at Wolves and capitalise on a packed schedule?

Who's to say we can't get something at Norwich when they are mid table mediocrity?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Stockport Royal » 09 Mar 2018 15:54

Snowball wrote:
Stockport Royal wrote:How about we just concentrate on getting something out of Leeds and then see how we go?


Of course. Goes without saying.


(Like home to crappy Bolton, Barnsley, Burton...)


Nawty alliteration.

We're awful and in no position to refer to any other team in this league as 'crappy'

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Re: Relegation Watch

by bcubed » 09 Mar 2018 16:27

John Smith wrote:
Snowball wrote:But my main reason for such predictions is we are showing very little fight, seem to be getting worse, crowds lower and more miserable.

I think if we lose to Leeds we will finish bottom

I totally disagree. Derby was very good and Bolton whilst not brilliant was 'fine'. Not great, granted but we got a point and the teams below lost so we made ground. We are moving in the right direction.

Who's to say we can't scrape a point at Wolves and capitalise on a packed schedule?

Who's to say we can't get something at Norwich when they are mid table mediocrity?


Guess you didn't go to the Bolton game?

It was far from fine. It was dreadful and with a little luck Bolton would have taken all the points.

Got to agree with Snowball and with our woeful defence we could easily ship 5 or 6

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