Anyone Nervous?

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Old Man Andrews
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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Old Man Andrews » 24 Apr 2018 12:28

Z175 wrote:I'm nervous! I dont get the relaxed attitiude. 10 years ago we were sent down by Fulham winning 3 in a row and winning away for the first time in a year. I think we can assume we will lose both our games (pretty likely given our Sat 3pm home record and Cardiff's form). I know Ipswich are rudderless but we couldnt beat Sunderland!

If we can mathematically go down on the last day I think we will, given ours is the hardest game that day.

Barnsley maybe 5 points behind but its that time of year when the bottom 3 pick up more wins. They have a huge opportunity tonight to get one of the 2 wins they need and then we are relying on playoff chokers Brentford and Derby to hold their nerve against a team fighting for their lives. I wouldn't bet against Derby collapsing to 7th 8th at home on the last day as Barnsley take 3 points... All the permutations of who plays who for the top 6 will echo down to the bottom 6 too I think...

Bolton do indeed look pretty dead and buried BUT both them and Burton can't lose on Saturday, so we need something to avoid them being within striking distance on final day. Burton would go to Preston (probably out of top 6 by then) with 3 wins on the spin, or a rejuvenated Bolton would have given themselves hope with win v Burton and look to finish the job v the abysmal Forest at home.

Birmingham might come through for us yet - their form is much better than ours but QPR away and Fulham at home are v tough (dpeending on which QPR they play). Anything at all for them v QPR and they can catch us. 4 defeats for us and them and we stay up ahead of them and one of Bolton/Burton!

Paul Clement has spoken about watching Forest v Barnsley if it is on TV tonight - well guess what Paul it isn't as the CL is on. Its a ludicrous thing to say (given no result can mathematically change anything for us), so every ounce of focus should be on Ipswich. If we win that it's safety whatever. Its symptomatic of a team sleepwalking to relegation for the manger to be talking about Forest Barnsley - thats for interest fan forums!


Bolton and Barnsley aren't Fulham and this isn't 10 years ago. Neither Bolton or Barnsley have it in them to win two games in a row so we are safe on that front, not because we will necessarily get ourselves out of trouble.

Saying that I think we will beat Ipswich this Saturday to put it beyond doubt. We can then go to Cardiff with no pressure on us and stitch up Colin.

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Stranded » 24 Apr 2018 12:46

Z175 wrote:I'm nervous! I dont get the relaxed attitiude. 10 years ago we were sent down by Fulham winning 3 in a row and winning away for the first time in a year. I think we can assume we will lose both our games (pretty likely given our Sat 3pm home record and Cardiff's form). I know Ipswich are rudderless but we couldnt beat Sunderland!

If we can mathematically go down on the last day I think we will, given ours is the hardest game that day.

Barnsley maybe 5 points behind but its that time of year when the bottom 3 pick up more wins. They have a huge opportunity tonight to get one of the 2 wins they need and then we are relying on playoff chokers Brentford and Derby to hold their nerve against a team fighting for their lives. I wouldn't bet against Derby collapsing to 7th 8th at home on the last day as Barnsley take 3 points... All the permutations of who plays who for the top 6 will echo down to the bottom 6 too I think...

Bolton do indeed look pretty dead and buried BUT both them and Burton can't lose on Saturday, so we need something to avoid them being within striking distance on final day. Burton would go to Preston (probably out of top 6 by then) with 3 wins on the spin, or a rejuvenated Bolton would have given themselves hope with win v Burton and look to finish the job v the abysmal Forest at home.

Birmingham might come through for us yet - their form is much better than ours but QPR away and Fulham at home are v tough (dpeending on which QPR they play). Anything at all for them v QPR and they can catch us. 4 defeats for us and them and we stay up ahead of them and one of Bolton/Burton!

Paul Clement has spoken about watching Forest v Barnsley if it is on TV tonight - well guess what Paul it isn't as the CL is on. Its a ludicrous thing to say (given no result can mathematically change anything for us), so every ounce of focus should be on Ipswich. If we win that it's safety whatever. Its symptomatic of a team sleepwalking to relegation for the manger to be talking about Forest Barnsley - thats for interest fan forums!


This post is the kind I have a problem with though understand where the poster comes from.

It takes as almost a given that we will continue to be awful over a 2 game spell whilst teams who have been worse than us all season will suddenly, collectively hit promotion form to go past us. For us to go down we need a combination of the following to happen:

Reading 0/1 pts
Brum 1/2pts
Bolton 4/6 pts
Barnsley 5/6pts
Burton 6pts

For Bolton to go past us they need to turn round a run of 1pt from 18 to pick up at least 4 (assuming we get 0)
For Barnsley to go past us they need to turn around a run of 1 win in 10 and go undefeated for the rest of the season/win 2 of 3
For Burton to go past us they will need to have been on a run of 4 straight wins.

Brum just need to better our results to go past us.

In comparison to that, we have 7/18pts under Clement.

Relegation is possible of course but look at the kind of uptick that needs to happen for 3 teams to go past us and you can be relatively relaxed about things. The Experimental 361 calculation of us having a 3% chance of dropping down is about right.

With regards to Sunderland, their away form is Ok at the mo, 1 defeat in 5 - it is their home form that has relegated them again. In comparison, Ipswich have lost 4 on the bounce away.

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Theroyalbox » 24 Apr 2018 12:48

Stranded wrote:
Z175 wrote:I'm nervous! I dont get the relaxed attitiude. 10 years ago we were sent down by Fulham winning 3 in a row and winning away for the first time in a year. I think we can assume we will lose both our games (pretty likely given our Sat 3pm home record and Cardiff's form). I know Ipswich are rudderless but we couldnt beat Sunderland!

If we can mathematically go down on the last day I think we will, given ours is the hardest game that day.

Barnsley maybe 5 points behind but its that time of year when the bottom 3 pick up more wins. They have a huge opportunity tonight to get one of the 2 wins they need and then we are relying on playoff chokers Brentford and Derby to hold their nerve against a team fighting for their lives. I wouldn't bet against Derby collapsing to 7th 8th at home on the last day as Barnsley take 3 points... All the permutations of who plays who for the top 6 will echo down to the bottom 6 too I think...

Bolton do indeed look pretty dead and buried BUT both them and Burton can't lose on Saturday, so we need something to avoid them being within striking distance on final day. Burton would go to Preston (probably out of top 6 by then) with 3 wins on the spin, or a rejuvenated Bolton would have given themselves hope with win v Burton and look to finish the job v the abysmal Forest at home.

Birmingham might come through for us yet - their form is much better than ours but QPR away and Fulham at home are v tough (dpeending on which QPR they play). Anything at all for them v QPR and they can catch us. 4 defeats for us and them and we stay up ahead of them and one of Bolton/Burton!

Paul Clement has spoken about watching Forest v Barnsley if it is on TV tonight - well guess what Paul it isn't as the CL is on. Its a ludicrous thing to say (given no result can mathematically change anything for us), so every ounce of focus should be on Ipswich. If we win that it's safety whatever. Its symptomatic of a team sleepwalking to relegation for the manger to be talking about Forest Barnsley - thats for interest fan forums!


This post is the kind I have a problem with though understand where the poster comes from.

It takes as almost a given that we will continue to be awful over a 2 game spell whilst teams who have been worse than us all season will suddenly, collectively hit promotion form to go past us. For us to go down we need a combination of the following to happen:

Reading 0/1 pts
Brum 1/2pts
Bolton 4/6 pts
Barnsley 5/6pts
Burton 6pts

For Bolton to go past us they need to turn round a run of 1pt from 18 to pick up at least 4 (assuming we get 0)
For Barnsley to go past us they need to turn around a run of 1 win in 10 and go undefeated for the rest of the season/win 2 of 3
For Burton to go past us they will need to have been on a run of 4 straight wins.

Brum just need to better our results to go past us.

In comparison to that, we have 7/18pts under Clement.

Relegation is possible of course but look at the kind of uptick that needs to happen for 3 teams to go past us and you can be relatively relaxed about things. The Experimental 361 calculation of us having a 3% chance of dropping down is about right.

With regards to Sunderland, their away form is Ok at the mo, 1 defeat in 5 - it is their home form that has relegated them again. In comparison, Ipswich have lost 4 on the bounce away.


Exactly this I honestly wouldn't even back Reading for Relegation if they were 500/1

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Silver Fox » 24 Apr 2018 12:52

Stranded wrote:
Z175 wrote:I'm nervous! I dont get the relaxed attitiude. 10 years ago we were sent down by Fulham winning 3 in a row and winning away for the first time in a year. I think we can assume we will lose both our games (pretty likely given our Sat 3pm home record and Cardiff's form). I know Ipswich are rudderless but we couldnt beat Sunderland!

If we can mathematically go down on the last day I think we will, given ours is the hardest game that day.

Barnsley maybe 5 points behind but its that time of year when the bottom 3 pick up more wins. They have a huge opportunity tonight to get one of the 2 wins they need and then we are relying on playoff chokers Brentford and Derby to hold their nerve against a team fighting for their lives. I wouldn't bet against Derby collapsing to 7th 8th at home on the last day as Barnsley take 3 points... All the permutations of who plays who for the top 6 will echo down to the bottom 6 too I think...

Bolton do indeed look pretty dead and buried BUT both them and Burton can't lose on Saturday, so we need something to avoid them being within striking distance on final day. Burton would go to Preston (probably out of top 6 by then) with 3 wins on the spin, or a rejuvenated Bolton would have given themselves hope with win v Burton and look to finish the job v the abysmal Forest at home.

Birmingham might come through for us yet - their form is much better than ours but QPR away and Fulham at home are v tough (dpeending on which QPR they play). Anything at all for them v QPR and they can catch us. 4 defeats for us and them and we stay up ahead of them and one of Bolton/Burton!

Paul Clement has spoken about watching Forest v Barnsley if it is on TV tonight - well guess what Paul it isn't as the CL is on. Its a ludicrous thing to say (given no result can mathematically change anything for us), so every ounce of focus should be on Ipswich. If we win that it's safety whatever. Its symptomatic of a team sleepwalking to relegation for the manger to be talking about Forest Barnsley - thats for interest fan forums!


This post is the kind I have a problem with though understand where the poster comes from.

It takes as almost a given that we will continue to be awful over a 2 game spell whilst teams who have been worse than us all season will suddenly, collectively hit promotion form to go past us. For us to go down we need a combination of the following to happen:

Reading 0/1 pts
Brum 1/2pts
Bolton 4/6 pts
Barnsley 5/6pts
Burton 6pts

For Bolton to go past us they need to turn round a run of 1pt from 18 to pick up at least 4 (assuming we get 0)
For Barnsley to go past us they need to turn around a run of 1 win in 10 and go undefeated for the rest of the season/win 2 of 3
For Burton to go past us they will need to have been on a run of 4 straight wins.

Brum just need to better our results to go past us.

In comparison to that, we have 7/18pts under Clement.

Relegation is possible of course but look at the kind of uptick that needs to happen for 3 teams to go past us and you can be relatively relaxed about things. The Experimental 361 calculation of us having a 3% chance of dropping down is about right.

With regards to Sunderland, their away form is Ok at the mo, 1 defeat in 5 - it is their home form that has relegated them again. In comparison, Ipswich have lost 4 on the bounce away.



You can't come on here talking sense! This is the panic thread don't you know?!

And obviously Bolton, Barnsley and Burton are all going to hit form now, just like they've been about to have a rich run of form ever since the turn of the year when we were 19th. It's a result of those obvious turnarounds that we've dropped to, let me check, oh yeah, 19th.

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Stranded » 24 Apr 2018 14:18

Silver Fox wrote:

You can't come on here talking sense! This is the panic thread don't you know?!

And obviously Bolton, Barnsley and Burton are all going to hit form now, just like they've been about to have a rich run of form ever since the turn of the year when we were 19th. It's a result of those obvious turnarounds that we've dropped to, let me check, oh yeah, 19th.


Well quite - I guess another way of looking at it. Take yourself out of the current situation. Reading are currently 14th and boringly safe.

Put another club in our position, Hull for example, would you be looking at the table thinking oh yeah they are in real trouble or would you look at it and go, they are 5 points clear of the bottom 3 with only 6 (or 9) points to play for. Yeah they are safe barring an incredible run of results.


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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Sutekh » 24 Apr 2018 14:30

Looking at form over the last 8 games Reading are 19th out of 24 on 7 points

Birmingham sit 9th in the table on 13 points

Burton are 18th with 8 points

Barnsley are 21st with 6 points

Bolton are 23rd with 5 points

Forest (tonight's opponents for Barnsley) are 22nd with 6 points

Ipswich are 24th on 4 points

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Z175 » 24 Apr 2018 15:50

Stranded wrote:For Bolton to go past us they need to turn round a run of 1pt from 18 to pick up at least 4 (assuming we get 0).
For Burton to go past us they will need to have been on a run of 4 straight wins.


My point was that Bolton play Burton! So unless we all draw (yes please but odds against), either Bolton have ended that run and somehow got a hope and an easy home game or Burton have won 3 on the spin and just need the last one. One of those should get to 44 points.

Stranded wrote:For Barnsley to go past us they need to turn around a run of 1 win in 10 and go undefeated for the rest of the season/win 2 of 3

And they are bookies favs to pick up the first of those 2 wins tonight!

Stranded wrote:Brum just need to better our results to go past us

Not hard...!

Stranded wrote:This post is the kind I have a problem with though understand where the poster comes from!

So where I am coming from is not that I'm saying this will happen ... where I'm coming from is that I'm nervous!

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Z175 » 24 Apr 2018 15:59

Stranded wrote:With regards to Sunderland, their away form is Ok at the mo, 1 defeat in 5 - it is their home form that has relegated them again. In comparison, Ipswich have lost 4 on the bounce away.


Your point about Sunderland is of course true - they are decent away and were of course fighting for their lives, so yes Clements home record does stack up in results terms, which is all that counts.

But can we repeat the trick of 1 shot on target, a clean sheet and the opposition missing sitters and penalties... fingers crossed.

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Z175 » 24 Apr 2018 16:02

Hendo wrote:
Z175 wrote:I'm nervous! I dont get the relaxed attitiude. 10 years ago we were sent down by Fulham winning 3 in a row and winning away for the first time in a year. I think we can assume we will lose both our games (pretty likely given our Sat 3pm home record and Cardiff's form). I know Ipswich are rudderless but we couldnt beat Sunderland!

If we can mathematically go down on the last day I think we will, given it is the hardest game.



Yet we could beat a QPR team who had a couple of good away wins before and a Preston side who were pushing for the play-offs?

So if, mathematically, it would take us to lose and whoever to win, yet with something like a 10-15 goal swing, we would still go down?

Sorry, by mathematically I meant, realistically within 2 pts of Bolton/Burton/Brum or 3 of Barnsley!

Although harking back to Derby we could have pulled off the 7-0 if we had gone for it! Bloody Lita celebrating taking up time...


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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Stranded » 24 Apr 2018 16:21

Z175 wrote:
Stranded wrote:For Bolton to go past us they need to turn round a run of 1pt from 18 to pick up at least 4 (assuming we get 0).
For Burton to go past us they will need to have been on a run of 4 straight wins.


My point was that Bolton play Burton! So unless we all draw (yes please but odds against), either Bolton have ended that run and somehow got a hope and an easy home game or Burton have won 3 on the spin and just need the last one. One of those should get to 44 points.

Stranded wrote:For Barnsley to go past us they need to turn around a run of 1 win in 10 and go undefeated for the rest of the season/win 2 of 3

And they are bookies favs to pick up the first of those 2 wins tonight!

Stranded wrote:Brum just need to better our results to go past us

Not hard...!

Stranded wrote:This post is the kind I have a problem with though understand where the poster comes from!

So where I am coming from is not that I'm saying this will happen ... where I'm coming from is that I'm nervous!


But again, for us to go down we are expecting a very specific series of results to happen for us to go down. Individually it is possible that a club may buck the form book and turn shocking form around but for us to go down we need 2 to do it plus Brum to just better one result. That is unlikely.

The fact that 2 of them play each other means that 1 off them will be unable to catch us come Saturday, either by points or GD (barring an absolute drubbing). So straight away either Burton or Bolton will realistically be out of the equation regardless of our result.

Barnsley have only won 3 away from home all season, they will drop points either tonight or at Derby. Probably both. Honestly, it's not worth getting nervous about. If you really think it will happen then put some cash on it but it wouldn't surprise me if after tonight we are 4 or 5 points clear with 2 to play

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Davezk » 24 Apr 2018 17:59

Im not nervous if anything relegation could be fun - chance to play some new teams and start again building a new team for long term.

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Denver Royal » 24 Apr 2018 19:21

genome wrote:
Denver Royal wrote:
genome wrote:
He has won us 3 out of the 7 points we’ve earned under Clement...


He did, if you look at it that way. Aluko did, too. And he is still trashed every week. So, maybe a rather narrow way of looking at it.

I guess my point was that Barrow...our player of the season...in terms of his overall play...hasn't exactly taken off and really thrived and flourished under Clement thus far.

And they knew each other, etc. Familiarity, which one would have thought, would be an advantage.

Maybe I was watching Barrow too closely, given their history. That's just my opinion, based on what I've seen on the field. Its all about opinions, and if you've seen different out there, that's fine.


He's not been much different than to under Stam.


Like I said, it's all about opinions. And imo, Barrow's overall level of play and body of work has declined somewhat under Clement. Thus far. From the games I've watched.

I'd say Kelly's play has declined in that time, too. He's been playing longer passes which haven't come off. You are now seeing posters now saying he shouldn't even be in the side (not me).

If you see these players as being the same under Clement, that's fine. I'm just saying I've noticed some variance. (Which isn't unusual with a new manager).

OTOH, Ilori and Moore's play has improved.

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Lower West » 24 Apr 2018 19:35

genome wrote:
He's not been much different than to under Stam. Typical good winger for this level, he will pop up with a goal and assist, but not consistently. That's basically how he's been all season. He's had runs where he does nothing stat-wise for a good 4 or 5 games.

When that's the player you're relying on for goals most of the time, you'll notice it when they go missing much more.


The opposition have worked us out. Far to easy to play against.


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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Denver Royal » 24 Apr 2018 19:50

Snowflake Royal wrote:
Denver Royal wrote:
genome wrote:
He has won us 3 out of the 7 points we’ve earned under Clement...


He did, if you look at it that way. Aluko did, too. And he is still trashed every week. So, maybe a rather narrow way of looking at it.

I guess my point was that Barrow...our player of the season...in terms of his overall play...hasn't exactly taken off and really thrived and flourished under Clement thus far.

And they knew each other, etc. Familiarity, which one would have thought, would be an advantage.

Maybe I was watching Barrow too closely, given their history. That's just my opinion, based on what I've seen on the field. Its all about opinions, and if you've seen different out there, that's fine.

Every decent new manager taking over a team in relegation trouble will prioritise cutting down on silly mistakes and improving defensive organisation and workrate. That's exactly what Clement has done.

Clement has 1.16 points per game in his six.
Stam had 0.7 in his last ten, which include the only win he managed in 18 games!

So far, Clement has done exactly what he needed to do. If his two wins had come against Sunderland and Wednesday rather than Preston and QPR, everyone would be delighted right now.


I agree, Clement's remit is a narrow one. So rIght now anyway, I suppose he's done 'exactly' what he needed to, in one sense anyway.

Ideally, I'd have liked to have seen better...and I bet Clement would have, too. And, I don't believe we'd have seen exactly the same thing under any other manager out there, either. But yes, do better than the run Stam was on, and stay up, that's the extent of it right now.

Going forward, we'll be looking thru a different lens. Being better than Stam's final season would be an incredibly low bar and yardstick by which to be judged and measured by, and the standards to set.

What about next season, would measuring Clement's avg weekly points total vs Stam's first season be a consideration at all? Stam took over a 19th placed team, so would there be any relevance or parallel's?

But yeah, I agree. Right now in these 8 games, it is what it is. That's the bottom line and the scope.
Last edited by Denver Royal on 24 Apr 2018 23:15, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Hound » 24 Apr 2018 20:38

Yep let’s stay up and go from there

Really don’t care about the performances too much at the moment. PC inherited a shit show - zero confidence, unfit and weak minded and keeping us up was not a given when he took over

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by The Prisoner » 24 Apr 2018 21:00

No. HTH.

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by leon » 24 Apr 2018 21:03

Hound wrote:Yep let’s stay up and go from there

Really don’t care about the performances too much at the moment. PC inherited a shit show - zero confidence, unfit and weak minded and keeping us up was not a given when he took over


Precisely. Ridiculous really - this team should be so much better, but he just has to keep us up.

This summer is going to be very important. This team needs some leaders and some steel in midfield.

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by JIM » 24 Apr 2018 22:14

Forest beat Barnsley. breath out.

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by windermereROYAL » 24 Apr 2018 22:21

Wonder if Morrison will be tweeting tonight what a bell Richard Koegh is?

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Re: Anyone Nervous?

by Zip » 24 Apr 2018 22:29

Not nervous now. I think we have enough points in the bag.

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