2017/2018 - What went wrong?

Brain Traysers
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Re: 2017/2018 - What went wrong?

by Brain Traysers » 23 May 2018 17:59

muirinho wrote:
Brain Traysers wrote:All of the stuff


Great post, and really interesting. Just wondering though - how do they determine accuracy for crosses?

i.e., if Barrow totally overhits a cross which sails over everybody and gets picked up by winger/full-back the other side - does that count as accurate because it went to one of our players? Conversely, if an inch perfect cross comes in, that skims between goalie and defence, but the striker doesn't stick their foot out and put it in the net - is that an accurate cross or an inaccurate one?

I guess I'm trying to determine if inaccurate crosses is definitely the fault of the player putting them in, or could be at least partially the fault of poor strikers.


I've had a further look - since WhoScored don't split passes into completed/not completed I think its fair to assume an 'accurate' cross (/pass etc) is defined as one received by a team mate.

So yes - a reduction in crossing accuracy could be down to lack of support in the box, or poor deliveries. The obvious issue with this statistic is you could over hit crosses to the other wing, never causing any goal threat, and I believe they would count as accurate.

One interesting related numerical coincidence is that despite not crossing the ball as much this season we scored 9 headed goals in each season. The impact of having fewer crosses this season seems to be visible at the next level when we compare the players playing the target man role. Yann managed 6 last season, and JDB only 2 this year (Yann also managed 2 this season in limited minutes).

For completeness on the aerial threat point, 12 (25%) of our goals this season came from set pieces +3 pens scored (I believe these crosses don't count in the stats above), down from 22 (32%) last season +7 pens scored. I assume all the penalty rebounds we scored last season count as 'set piece' goals.

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Re: 2017/2018 - What went wrong?

by Brain Traysers » 23 May 2018 18:54

Zip wrote:Seriously that post is top notch Brain Traysers. The fact we only conceded a few more compared to 2016/17 but scored a lot less says it all. Hardly surprising given your detailed analysis confirms we had considerably less shots year on year. The huge reduction in crosses is the real eye opener though and Aluko was a massive underperformer in this respect.
We also badly missed Obita. As we all know our central midfielders performed very poorly.

Thanks for such a detailed analysis.


Again I want to reiterate the point on Aluko. I know he is the official 2017/18 escapegoat, but I do have some sympathy for him. Asking him to play as a winger doesn't suit his strengths - when he did show glimmers of his talent (goal away at Derby, match winner v QPR) he was cutting inside. In addition, last season with Fulham looks like the exception rather than the rule with 8 goals 10 assists. Apart from that haul, you have to go back to Hull's 2012/13 promotion season to find a season where he bettered this season's 3 goals (also true when looking at combined goals and assists of 7). From a relative performance point of view, despite the headline figures of 8 goals and 10 assists last season Aluko managed a 0.4 goal contributions (goals+assist) per 90 mins, the 9th best in the free-scoring Fulham squad (10th best goals/90, 2nd best assists/90), this season his 0.21 goal contributions per 90 place him also 9th in our squad (12th for goals/90 and 5th for assists/90).

All in all I think its a combination of a few things - being asked to play a role he isn't best suited to (potentially as a result of GMac's injuries) on top of not actually being as talented as his previous season or transfer fee suggest. Expectations were naturally high, and he has massively under delivered, but I don't think he should be blamed for whoever failed to analyse whether or not he would be a good fit in Stam's system, or whoever negotiated his absurd transfer fee.

I draw parallels with Grabban - with the right system and playing in the right position his 20 goals this season (from 30 starts and 6 sub appearances) massively eclipse his 3 (from 10+9 games) with us last season. But this season he has only got 1 assist, compared with 3 for us last season, reinforcing the view that Stam was incorrectly using him as a support striker (or oddly as a left winger at times), rather than the poacher he is. Perhaps if we changed our shape a bit we could get a bit more out of him in an absolute sense (maybe Clement's promised attacking style features exactly that), but in all honestly from what I can see, even if we do adapt our style I wouldn't expect him to tear the league up next season, or ever be the team's star player.

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Re: 2017/2018 - What went wrong?

by Hound » 23 May 2018 19:52

Nice points again in Aluko but does beg the question - what exactly is he if he isn’t a winger? Defensively he is poor, he isn’t a striker and did nothing other than wander around aimlessly in centre mid

Makes me think his performances this year would be very much the norm and there will be no ‘coming good’

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Re: 2017/2018 - What went wrong?

by Brain Traysers » 23 May 2018 20:21

Hound wrote:Nice points again in Aluko but does beg the question - what exactly is he if he isn’t a winger? Defensively he is poor, he isn’t a striker and did nothing other than wander around aimlessly in centre mid

Makes me think his performances this year would be very much the norm and there will be no ‘coming good’


Exactly my point, and I agree this season unfortunately looks normal for him if we are going to play that way.

To be honest my ability to analyse statistics is certainly better than my ability to recommend players who would suit a given style of play. My low value suggestion would suggest he is best suited to being the lesser threat of a dynamic front 3, where he will score and assist goals, but never be the star man. Fulham were probably the perfect fit for for him at this level, and he probably would have been good for Rogers' Swansea Play Off side ( :cry: ) alongside Borini and Sinclair. Essentially a significantly worse Mane, who is the forgotten man in the trio with Salah and Firmino. If he is the only threat he is evidently easy to neutralise, but if there are other distractions alongside him then he will be effective enough.

Perhaps playing in an advanced right wing position - with limited defensive duties due to cover from CM - having someone athletic like Shane Long (<3) stretching the defenders from a central role (rather than a slow/static target man JDB or Yann), with Barrow on the other wing would bring the best (albeit still pretty 'meh') out of him. Of course saying all of this is much easier than actually doing it.

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Ascotexgunner
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Re: 2017/2018 - What went wrong?

by Ascotexgunner » 25 May 2018 08:31

SCIAG wrote:Excellent post, nice to see somebody using statistics appropriately for a change. Vindicates my long held opinion that Beerens was excellent and freezing him out was a mistake.

However,
Brain Traysers wrote: then prepare to strap in (or ‘on’ if you prefer #nohomo),

:roll:

Shit joke followed up by casual homophobia.


I'm glad you brought up Beeren's. I'm 100% with you on that. He was quality. You could see it. His deliveries and movement were what we needed more of. I was saddened when he went.


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Snowflake Royal
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Re: 2017/2018 - What went wrong?

by Snowflake Royal » 25 May 2018 08:47

Yeah, Beerens worked because he didn't rely on pace and didn't need to find much space to cross, so his game wasn't too damaged by us being static around a packed box.

He was really hurt by the general down turn in form and the lack of a decent striker up top... iirc he didn't actually play much with Bod and Edwards the people he might have actually fed successfully. Wasn't he actually played upfront in some of his appearances? :roll:

I know he was a left winger, so not ideal competition for Aluko, but I'd take him over that fanny every day of the week.

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Re: 2017/2018 - What went wrong?

by Hound » 25 May 2018 08:52

yeah utterly messed up by Stam last season. He was an excellent crosser of the ball and scored some important goals. Worked very well alongside a fit McCleary who is a similar player if a bit quicker and bit better defensively.

Still he was contributing nothing by the time he left, so can see why he moved on.

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