Season 2018/2019

[Royalwaster]

If we win the majority of our games I think we'll finish near the top. However, if we lose most then we'll be lower down I think

Really think football will end up being the winner this season. If we put the ball in the goal we score. Simple as that.

I honestly believe that we should just try to score more goals then we concede. I've been emailing the club for years with that suggestion but no one seems to listen . . . . .

I think Steve Coppell listened ...

[Brain Traysers]

I think people are right to question how good we are relative to other teams. We haven't done enough (yet) this summer to realistically make anything other than avoiding relegation priority number one.

Looking back at the 'relegation watch 2017/18' thread, 50 points is a good enough proxy for safety at this stage (true for 8 out of 11 previous seasons). With a stronger league than last year (all 3 relegated clubs look pretty strong, and the 3 promoted from L1 are probably stronger than the likes of Barnsley and Burton), that seems the right target for now. A good start or run of form and this league makes it possible for ambitions to quickly rise.

Given that we ended on 44 points last season, do we think we are 6 points stronger than last season (against a stronger 'average' opponent)?

But what if 44 points last season wasn't a fair indicator of how bad we were? Then we would need to target more than a 6 point improvement.

Using the Expected Goal (xG) data for 2017/18 fixtures (available from fivethrityeight.com) I've pulled together a xG-driven Expected Points (xP) table for last season - where there was less than 0.5 between team A and team B's xGs, I've suggested a draw would have been fair and assigned one xP each, otherwise the team with higher xG score is awarded 3 points for 'deserving' to win. As an example, for the 1-0 home win against QPR this model would assign the 3 xP to QPR, as the xG score was 0.17 - 2.01.

Here is how differently the table would have looked at the end of last season:



There are some material differences (mostly because xG is the best of a bad bunch of football outcome predictors - read here for a much better summary than I could write), but it doesn't feel horrifically 'wrong' to me. Wolves and Cardiff still come out at the top (albeit tied for 2nd with Villa), there is a bit of change in the play off positions, but more meaningful changes at the bottom. Burton finish bottom (they probably did overachieve to finish 2nd bottom), while we finish 2nd bottom with 37 points, and Ipswich take the last spot with 38 - 22 fewer than they actually got, and arguably explains the supporter discontent with Big Mick despite the mid table finish!

So if 50 is the magic number, and we only 'deserved' 37 points last season, we may well be 6 points better this year, but are we 13?

[Snowflake Royal]

Unfortunately I think that's so speculative and broad as to be worthless. I don't really think you can carry a goal expectancy assessment for a club over one season into another.

Its also worth noting it seems goal expectancy has seriously undervalued us two seasons in a row now. Which suggests whilst it may be one of the better metrics in general, it doesnt work for us so far.

I don't think you take sufficient account of how much of our issues were tactical and mental.

[Elm Park Kid]

Also - a team's result is heavily dependent on mentality and luck as well as the quality of players. Exactly the same time could end up with 50, 60 or 70 points just depending on how the season pans out. One deflected injury time winner could be the difference between going on a 5 game winning streak or not winning a single game.

Personally i think the current team could be relegated under a bad manager and bad club atmosphere, but if things start well we'd be easily safe.

[Brain Traysers]

Certainly fair critiques of a simplistic approach. I believe an xG measure is always going to be biased against teams happy to hold out a narrow lead, as it allows the opposition team to steadily build up more frequent but small increases in xG as the game goes on, while making reduced effort to add xG yourselves. I think you can certainly group us and Ipswich together as xG outperformers with low overall goal threats (so no choice but to sit back on a lead), but also Fulham as a team with a very solid defense last season.

The main point I wanted to make was its entirely possible we will perform better next season, with a worse outcome - e.g. being relegated on 49 points, despite that representing an 11% increase on last season.

[Snowflake Royal]

Fair, i do think we'd have been relegated playing like that most seasons. Thank goodness for such a diabolical bottom six / seven around us.

[Hound]

we were saved by that little spell around Derby/Forest where we managed a decent points return, and actually looked like a team.

Bar that we played like a relegation club, if not a bottom of the table side for the other 40 odd games or so. We really were genuinely awful

[bobby1413]

I can't understand why anyone here/twatter/on Earth is expecting anything other than a bottom half finish for Reading. I'm not being negative, I just think I'm being realistic.

I think we'll finish around 16th-18th.

Edit: oh and I do think we'll perform marginally better than last year but will still be looking over our shoulder until the last 5-6 games.

[Hound]

its a tough one - on paper a defence of Mannone, Yiadom, Moore, Ilori and Obita could be as good as any in the division

likewise Meyler, Bacuna and Swift would feature 3 players who have played at a decent level and again could form a strong midfield

Barrow was excellent last year, Aluko was very good apparently for Fulham 2 years back and if you could bring in another forward such as Baldock who is proven at this level, again could be seen as a strong attack

Backed up by solid experienced champ performers like McShane, Kelly, McCleary, Edwards etc

but yeah, I know what you mean. Difficult to see it all clicking

[genome]

Fair, i do think we'd have been relegated playing like that most seasons. Thank goodness for such a diabolical bottom six / seven around us.

Off the top of my head - I recall seeing a stat confirming we would have been relegated with our final points total in 17 out of the last 20 Championship seasons

[Old Man Andrews]

It's ok lads, Wigan and Rotherham are back for this season. Means there is effectively only 1 relegation spot on offer.

[Tilehurstsouthbank]

It's ok lads, Wigan and Rotherham are back for this season. Means there is effectively only 1 relegation spot on offer.

I think Wigan will be a lot better side than the last time they came up. Paul Cook is a decent manager who plays expansive attacking football. Don't be shocked if they're one of the divisions surprise Playoff entrants.

[CountryRoyal]

It's ok lads, Wigan and Rotherham are back for this season. Means there is effectively only 1 relegation spot on offer.

I think Wigan will be a lot better side than the last time they came up. Paul Cook is a decent manager who plays expansive attacking football. Don't be shocked if they're one of the divisions surprise Playoff entrants.

Bet you £1000 they’re not.

[Old Man Andrews]

It's ok lads, Wigan and Rotherham are back for this season. Means there is effectively only 1 relegation spot on offer.

I think Wigan will be a lot better side than the last time they came up. Paul Cook is a decent manager who plays expansive attacking football. Don't be shocked if they're one of the divisions surprise Playoff entrants.

Bet you £1000 they’re not.

I'll come in on this too.

[Hound]

Bolton will be useless

[Old Man Andrews]

Bolton will be useless

Yep great point. Relegation places are already confirmed.

[Tilehurstsouthbank]

I think Wigan will be a lot better side than the last time they came up. Paul Cook is a decent manager who plays expansive attacking football. Don't be shocked if they're one of the divisions surprise Playoff entrants.

Bet you £1000 they’re not.

I'll come in on this too.

I'm not that confident!

But I can't see them struggling either.

[John Smith]

It's ok lads, Wigan and Rotherham are back for this season. Means there is effectively only 1 relegation spot on offer.

I think Wigan will be a lot better side than the last time they came up. Paul Cook is a decent manager who plays expansive attacking football. Don't be shocked if they're one of the divisions surprise Playoff entrants.

Deary me. Think it's time you came inside from the sun young man. Marbles well and truly lost.

[Tilehurstsouthbank]

It's ok lads, Wigan and Rotherham are back for this season. Means there is effectively only 1 relegation spot on offer.

I think Wigan will be a lot better side than the last time they came up. Paul Cook is a decent manager who plays expansive attacking football. Don't be shocked if they're one of the divisions surprise Playoff entrants.

Deary me. Think it's time you came inside from the sun young man. Marbles well and truly lost.

I guess time will tell.

[Snowflake Royal]

It's ok lads, Wigan and Rotherham are back for this season. Means there is effectively only 1 relegation spot on offer.

I think Wigan will be a lot better side than the last time they came up. Paul Cook is a decent manager who plays expansive attacking football. Don't be shocked if they're one of the divisions surprise Playoff entrants.

Bet you £1000 they’re not.

I'll take that at reasonable odds if you're that confident. You stake £1000, I'll stake £50
You win if they finish below 14th, I win if they finish above 10th. Null if they finish 10-14th.