BFTG - Bolton

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Snowflake Royal » 20 Aug 2018 23:16

Denver Royal wrote:
sandman wrote:
WAZZOCK wrote:
Bournemouth’s budget was humongous :lol:


Shhh.

Don't you know that Bournemouth are a fairytale who stayed up in the championship and ultimately went up on a shoestring budget and definitely aren't backed by a Russian Billionaire.

I was referring to Bournemouth having stayed up in the PL, not the Champ. And, I never said anything about how they went up. Not sure they have a massive budget in the PL relative to other PL clubs.
Any thoughts on the other teams I mentioned?

I do.

Burnley have taken a brick by brick, steady and cautious approach, sticking by the same manager even after relegation. Never betting the farm on staying up and having a plan. Sound like Reading of the last 10 years? No. Not in the slightest.
Cardiff they can't have finished bottom or they'd have been relegated. So that doesn't really mean much.
Huddersfield, building steadily for years and had the great fortune of running into us at Wembley.

You've got to get exceptional cases out of your head. Hoping we'll emulate a 1 in 1000 chance case is pointless. As is hoping we'll achieve the same as a club while we operate in a completely different manner to them. Or that one good year somehow has more meaning than three shit ones where we're a shambles.

Open your eyes. Look at the state we're in.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Denver Royal » 20 Aug 2018 23:44

Snowflake Royal wrote:Cardiff they can't have finished bottom or they'd have been relegated. So that doesn't really mean much.
Huddersfield, building steadily for years and had the great fortune of running into us at Wembley.

Cardiff didn’t finish bottom, nor were they relegated. I never said they did or were (apology accepted). But when Warnock arrived they were at/near bottom. That means something to me, if not you.
Hudders, aside from ‘good fortune’ in playing us, then managed to stay up. So, they must be doing some things right.
We ourselves almost went up 2 seasons ago, and did go up twice previously.
So, it can be done, is my point. And, not convinced we need to drop down to League 1 first, to achieve it again.
(Btw, if we drop, even if we wanted to retain Clement, not sure how much he’d relish it, if at all).

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by under the tin » 21 Aug 2018 07:40

Denver Royal wrote:
We ourselves almost went up 2 seasons ago, and did go up twice previously.
So, it can be done, is my point. And, not convinced we need to drop down to League 1 first, to achieve it again.
(Btw, if we drop, even if we wanted to retain Clement, not sure how much he’d relish it, if at all).


The 3 seasons you refer to:
The Coppell team:
Simply a fabulous team, carefully built, that proved it by going on to finish a comfortable eighth up there.
Then the problems started with player recruitment/retention, and SJM realising just how deep the water was, money-wise.

MaccyD's team:
The excellent signings of LeFondre and particularly Roberts were the catalyst required to get the team "on a roll".
A solid enough side to get promoted, but required very considerable extra investment in order to sustain that prem status.
That real investment was not forthcoming, and what little was done was proven to be wasted.
Rank bad strategic thinking by the ownership, given that it was the following season (the one that we missed out on by our relegation, and Bournemouth got in on)
that the TV deal money went ballistic.
That was the season to push the boat out a bit more.
Instead, the team withered and died, and Brian paid the price for this with his job.

The Stam team:
How many times did people comment on here "how did we win that match" that season?
So many were negative STG's?

Yes, it can be done, but if the chips fall the right way, it can also be fluked.

I reckon it is inevitable that it will take time to sort out the mistakes made in player recruitment over the last few years.
Our bloated squad has far too many on lucrative contracts and are in no hurry to go anywhere else, so all the club can do is to
a) allow those to run down,
or b) try to farm them out on loan elsewhere. Even this cannot be done without the agreement of the player.

All we can do is to hope that enough is done in the meantime to prevent relegation from the Champ.
Clement may well not relish it: but perhaps our Chinese owners may not, either.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Snowflake Royal » 21 Aug 2018 19:11

Just watched the highlights. Even more confused at the criticism of Kelly now. Importantly involved in most of our highlighted chances.

Played a good ball forward for Swift (?) to put the slightly too straight through ball in for Meite (that Yak almost got in anyway)
Decent movement off the ball for Baldock's first half effort... took a defender out of the way of the pass.
Not involved in the cock up for Bolton's goal (or their first breakaway)
Put the freekick in that McShane and Moore were queuing up for and failed to put away.
Dinked a beautiful ball over the top for Swift to be in behind.

He's clearly not playing well, but he did about as much in attack as Swift (who was much more effective second half than I could see at the game), and much more in defence.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Lower West » 21 Aug 2018 22:09

Snowflake Royal wrote:Burnley have taken a brick by brick, steady and cautious approach, sticking by the same manager even after relegation. Never betting the farm on staying up and having a plan. Sound like Reading of the last 10 years? No. Not in the slightest.


We've struggle to recover from the Clarke era. Funds mis-spent on a one season punt. Rather than build for the future.


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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Muskrat » 21 Aug 2018 22:10

Well I sat through the whole 94 minutes and what little we did create was through Kelly or Swift so I'm broadly in agreement with SR/IR. Myler however was bog standard I'm afraid. I sincerely hope his form improves. Also not really getting the love for Meite, he seems an extremely limited footballer to me.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Brain Traysers » 21 Aug 2018 22:40

Our xG cumulation plot from the game shows we were completely unable to generate meaningful chances once being one down. (Approx) 0.6 xG built up in the first half / before their goal, with only 0.3 xG built in the second half / after their goal.
Image

I think this is likely to be the pattern of the season - if a team wants to shut up shop against us, they will be able to do so relatively easily with us causing limited threat. However, if a team wants to try to attack us (much like Derby did, albeit very disjointedly), we will 'create' more. Hopefully our terrible form will encourage teams to come and have a go.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Muskrat » 21 Aug 2018 22:58

Brain Traysers wrote:Our xG cumulation plot from the game shows we were completely unable to generate meaningful chances once being one down. (Approx) 0.6 xG built up in the first half / before their goal, with only 0.3 xG built in the second half / after their goal.
Image

I think this is likely to be the pattern of the season - if a team wants to shut up shop against us, they will be able to do so relatively easily with us causing limited threat. However, if a team wants to try to attack us (much like Derby did, albeit very disjointedly), we will 'create' more. Hopefully our terrible form will encourage teams to come and have a go.


A more blatant example of "lend me your watch and I'll tell you the time" I have never seen. Please tell me that nobody pays for this "analysis" :roll:

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Old Man Andrews » 22 Aug 2018 00:38

Brain Traysers wrote:Our xG cumulation plot from the game shows we were completely unable to generate meaningful chances once being one down. (Approx) 0.6 xG built up in the first half / before their goal, with only 0.3 xG built in the second half / after their goal.
Image

I think this is likely to be the pattern of the season - if a team wants to shut up shop against us, they will be able to do so relatively easily with us causing limited threat. However, if a team wants to try to attack us (much like Derby did, albeit very disjointedly), we will 'create' more. Hopefully our terrible form will encourage teams to come and have a go.


Oh my.


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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Denver Royal » 22 Aug 2018 00:54

Yeah, we don’t need no steenking data or stats or facts in here, they aren’t credible.

(Brain, is it true the coaches use some of this stuff? :shock: )

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Hound » 22 Aug 2018 07:12

I find it quite interesting

Very stark how flat we were between 70 and 90 mins when you’d expect us to be really going for it

Fair point that we look more dangerous on the counter, which was broadly true last year as well, than when we are dominating possession

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Stranded » 22 Aug 2018 10:03

Surely that is what the signing of Sims is trying to counter, give us 2 (with Barrow) wide attacking outlets which should stop us being as flat, spread the game and create more space for players in the middle - should stop teams being able to sit as compactly as Bolton did post goal on Saturday.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by genome » 22 Aug 2018 10:21

The last time we went behind in a match and recovered to win: 17th April 2017 (Rotherham 2-1 at Home)

Since then we have fallen behind in matches 34 times and:
Recovered to Draw: 6 times
Lost the match: 28 times

What character! :lol:


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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Hound » 22 Aug 2018 11:30

genome wrote:The last time we went behind in a match and recovered to win: 17th April 2017 (Rotherham 2-1 at Home)

Since then we have fallen behind in matches 34 times and:
Recovered to Draw: 6 times
Lost the match: 28 times

What character! :lol:


yep. I think this tells us everything we need to know, and is for me the most telling stat about the last couple of years.

I don't think we came back too often in 16/17 either tbh. Remember Bristol City but not many others. If you score against us first, you'l prob go on to win the game. Difference between 16/17 and since, is that if we score first, then its no guarantee of a Reading win. If I remember in 16/17 we went ahead around 25 times and won 23 of them or something ridiculous like that.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Elm Park Kid » 22 Aug 2018 11:51

Now that we've discussed the problems - what are the solutions?

New Owners who have lots more cash to spend? - Yeah, what club wouldn't want that. Good luck getting them.

Keeping firing managers until we find the right one? - Doesn't seem to work for most clubs.

Do more to build up a better fan base and atmosphere at the club? TBF - RFC have done quite a bit in recent years:
- Effective ticket price freezes since we were relegated from the PL the first time.
- Heavily discounted prices for young people (like, it can't get much cheaper).
- Cheap buses from town
- Entertainment outside the ground before games.
- A reasonable range of drinks (well, at the East Stand/Jazz Cafe at least and admittedly expensive).
- New club 'theme song' . . . ok i'm struggling here.

I mean, the big things that we all want - a ground near good transport links and lots of pubs - is something that the club has no control over. It can't build and open pubs that only get a 3-4 hours of business 23-30 days a year.

They've probably been too quick with manager changes - but almost all of them were forced on the club (McDermott the obvs exception,
Clarke didn't technically need to go).

As far as i'm see the only solution is to build a long term strategy that accepts we won't be challenging for anything for the next 5 seasons or so. Just try to add a couple of decent young players to the squad every year and avoid spending money on journey men or expensive 'quick impact' players. No Alukos or O'Sheas or Vydras or definitely Pogs. Just have the patience to slowly improve each season and build some pride and interest back up in the club.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Old Man Andrews » 22 Aug 2018 11:55

Elm Park Kid wrote:Now that we've discussed the problems - what are the solutions?

New Owners who have lots more cash to spend? - Yeah, what club wouldn't want that. Good luck getting them.

Keeping firing managers until we find the right one? - Doesn't seem to work for most clubs.

Do more to build up a better fan base and atmosphere at the club? TBF - RFC have done quite a bit in recent years:
- Effective ticket price freezes since we were relegated from the PL the first time.
- Heavily discounted prices for young people (like, it can't get much cheaper).
- Cheap buses from town
- Entertainment outside the ground before games.
- A reasonable range of drinks (well, at the East Stand/Jazz Cafe at least and admittedly expensive).
- New club 'theme song' . . . ok i'm struggling here.

I mean, the big things that we all want - a ground near good transport links and lots of pubs - is something that the club has no control over. It can't build and open pubs that only get a 3-4 hours of business 23-30 days a year.

They've probably been too quick with manager changes - but almost all of them were forced on the club (McDermott the obvs exception,
Clarke didn't technically need to go).

As far as i'm see the only solution is to build a long term strategy that accepts we won't be challenging for anything for the next 5 seasons or so. Just try to add a couple of decent young players to the squad every year and avoid spending money on journey men or expensive 'quick impact' players. No Alukos or O'Sheas or Vydras or definitely Pogs. Just have the patience to slowly improve each season and build some pride and interest back up in the club.


Was on board with you until you said that. That snake had to go, he was poisonous.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Hound » 22 Aug 2018 12:03

Pretty much that EPK.

I can't see how cutting ticket prices any lower will bring more people along. I think the Bus fares are a little pricey, but thats nitpicking. Could definitely do with a little more going on outside the ground - maybe another covered bar and a little bit more for the kids to do. I dunno, maybe something like pick a couple of players from our very healthy injury list to do a few autographs and selfies or something.

We're paying for the mistakes of poor management imo. Stam's desire to increase the size of the squad has backfired massively with a wealth of expensive average players on the books. We should have cleared a few more out in the summer, but I understand its not always easy when they are on decent contracts. We've obvs paid up Joey and Yann, suspect the owners were raising an eyebrow at paying off any more.

I think realistically we need to be looking at getting rid of anyone who is in the last year of their contract in Jan (except Meite) at the latest and start looking at bringing in some of the U23. Loader, Rinomhota, Novakovich and possibly Ward should all be targeted to be in the first team squad next season along with Richards. We can lose Jaakola, Edwards, McShane, Blackett, Popa, Harriott with no real loss of quality. We should also be looking strongly at moving on Clement, Aluko, Mannone, McCleary, Gunter, O Shea and possibly Bacuna unless their form improves.

There is a basis of a good team in Walker, Yiadom, Obita, Moore, Ilori, Kelly, Swift, Meyler, Barrow, Bod, McNulty, Baldock, Meite. Obviously with some additional acquisitions.

I understand the misgivings about Clement, and he has been far from amazing. I think we have to stick with him and his staff though, and see if we can turn things around. The football is definitely better than last season's atrocity, and if we start winning a few games, I think the crowds will come back.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Elm Park Kid » 22 Aug 2018 12:24

I say we stick with Clement regardless - even if facing relegation. He has vast experience and is someone that I think will learn as he goes along. We can have the sort of squad you're talking about whether we're in the Champ or League 1, and being in a league where we can win games would be a good way of turning things round.

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Re: BFTG - Bolton

by Vision » 22 Aug 2018 12:42

Elm Park Kid wrote:Now that we've discussed the problems - what are the solutions?

New Owners who have lots more cash to spend? - Yeah, what club wouldn't want that. Good luck getting them.

Keeping firing managers until we find the right one? - Doesn't seem to work for most clubs.

Do more to build up a better fan base and atmosphere at the club? TBF - RFC have done quite a bit in recent years:
- Effective ticket price freezes since we were relegated from the PL the first time.
- Heavily discounted prices for young people (like, it can't get much cheaper).
- Cheap buses from town
- Entertainment outside the ground before games.
- A reasonable range of drinks (well, at the East Stand/Jazz Cafe at least and admittedly expensive).
- New club 'theme song' . . . ok i'm struggling here.

I mean, the big things that we all want - a ground near good transport links and lots of pubs - is something that the club has no control over. It can't build and open pubs that only get a 3-4 hours of business 23-30 days a year.

They've probably been too quick with manager changes - but almost all of them were forced on the club (McDermott the obvs exception,
Clarke didn't technically need to go).

As far as i'm see the only solution is to build a long term strategy that accepts we won't be challenging for anything for the next 5 seasons or so. Just try to add a couple of decent young players to the squad every year and avoid spending money on journey men or expensive 'quick impact' players. No Alukos or O'Sheas or Vydras or definitely Pogs. Just have the patience to slowly improve each season and build some pride and interest back up in the club.


I've said this before but as daft as it sounds finishing 3rd in 16/17 was the worst thing that could have happened to us. There was plenty of talk of long term strategy by Tevrenden and Stam on his appointment. The Academy was going to be at the forefront of that strategy and it all started off fine. Then we got a sniff of that Premier League honeypot so Dai and his sister saw a chance of glory, the Thais saw an opportunity to cash in and all of a sudden in came "names" to help with that final push. Illori for 3.5m , then expensive loans for the likes of Grabban, Oxford, Mutch etc.

It failed but instead of saying "lets go back to the original plan", it became a case of finding that little bit extra that would make the difference and get us up the following season. Of course I totally understand why we'd go down that route having been a penalty kick away from the promised land and an awful lot of the fan base wouldn't have been happy if we'd simply settled for a couple of young hungry signings plus Academy promotions that summer either. In fact I'm pretty certain we only got saddled with Aluko because of raised expectations from pursuing unsuccessfully Oliveira and Hemed for multi millions. But saddled we were, along with a host of other "name" signings all on long contracts due to FFP rearing it's ugly head with the loss of parachute payments.

Now we find ourselves on a road that we didn't really want to be going down and it's very difficult to change direction when you've committed as much as we have to these "names". Certainly we're in a period of uncertainty as to who and what we are. The club (owners/board/whomever) have made great strides in a lot of areas as you say. It's not for me tbh but whatever anyone's take on Club1871 might be, it's safe to say the club would not have sanctioned anything of it's type under previous owners. Likewise we'd have bitten the hand off Brighton for the money offered for Moore in the past. But we're caught between two stools at the moment. We aren't spending big enough to be the amongst the big spenders but we're not cutting our cloth (ha!) and seemingly building long term either.

I guess we will just have to ride out the next couple of seasons until we get ourselves back on something of an even keel when the current high earning/low producing players disappear and back to finding a clear path and strategy again. I still believe that pushing on with the new training ground , keeping Cat A & standing firm over Moore means the owners may well be in it for the longer term (whatever that really means) albeit looking for further outside investment.

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