Clement

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Clement in or out

Poll ended at 02 Oct 2018 15:29
Out
35
25%
In
68
49%
Out but in a funny accent
3
2%
Oxf*rd off Maff
17
12%
Ian Royal
16
12%
 
Total votes: 139
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stealthpapes
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Re: Clement

by stealthpapes » 02 Nov 2018 09:06

Brain Traysers A while back (page 9 to be precise) I posted a chart showing that under Clement we looked to have tightened up at the back, and at least narrowed the gap between the amount of xG we concede and the amount we generate per game. It wasn't an amazing turnaround, but at least offered some promising signs.

But in the last few games it has gone very very badly. The 3.8 xG conceded against Swansea was the highest amount we have conceded in a game covered by that source (fivethirtyeight). That 3.8 xG conceded is 98.5th percentile bad (away teams only, 9000 observations), with the xGD of -2.8 goals only a smidge better at 97.7th percentile bad for an away team.

As a result, our 6 game rolling xG conceded is now higher than it was when Stam was sacked, and is now above 2 goals per game, higher than it was at any point last season. On the other side, our 'xG for' has been relatively stable at around a goal a game, meaning our xG difference is now -1.26 goals per game. Our rolling xG difference has only been worse once over this period, after Clements 4th game in charge (1-0 away loss at Fulham).



Half a season into a new tenure, and things look statistically worse than when he took over. The only saving grace is that those 6 games are against some in form teams (QPR and Birmingham), and only 2 home games.

I'm not 100% he has to go yet, but after checking those numbers, I'm 98.5%.



while I have my doubts over xG, thank you for presenting the data in such a clear manner. It kind of backs up my instincts - Stam improved things, briefly, before the wheels came off, and Clement has rinsed and repeated.

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Re: Clement

by Hound » 02 Nov 2018 09:07

This beef is giving me a headache. I want to be left out of it please :lol:

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Re: Clement

by NewCorkSeth » 02 Nov 2018 09:09

Hound This beef is giving me a headache. I want to be left out of it please :lol:

Too late fence sitter. Get back here and pick a side.

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Re: Clement

by Old Man Andrews » 02 Nov 2018 09:10

Yeah. Declare yourself an Ian Royal man.

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NewCorkSeth
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Re: Clement

by NewCorkSeth » 02 Nov 2018 09:11

Old Man Andrews Yeah. Declare yourself an Ian Royal man.

Et tu, brute?


Old Man Andrews

Re: Clement

by Old Man Andrews » 02 Nov 2018 09:13

NewCorkSeth
Old Man Andrews Yeah. Declare yourself an Ian Royal man.

Et tu, brute?


I have no idea what you guys are even arguing about, I just want to see someone side with Ian. It would be a landmark moment.

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Re: Clement

by NewCorkSeth » 02 Nov 2018 09:14

Old Man Andrews
NewCorkSeth
Old Man Andrews Yeah. Declare yourself an Ian Royal man.

Et tu, brute?


I have no idea what you guys are even arguing about, I just want to see someone side with Ian. It would be a landmark moment.

Oh god I'm gonna be the man who did that.. good thing I have a back up account. I can start anew.

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Re: Clement

by Snowflake Royal » 02 Nov 2018 13:26

NewCorkSeth
Snowflake Royal
NewCorkSeth I know you're probably on a wind up here but in my original comment I said "He's really calling himself the only person to blame there.."

Then you disagreed with me. So how does it seem pretty obvious Ian? I said the same thing Hound said albeit in a different way.

Not on a wind up at all, just amazed at how biased against him you are that you'll twist anything he says like a pretzel.

There is a difference between an interpretation of what he's said - the buck stops with him. And what is reality - fault lies in a lot of places, mainly not him but he has responsibility to fix them and take responsibility for them.

And Hound told you your interpretation was crazy as well.


Just FYI saying Gourlay isn't responsible is not synonimous with saying only Clement is responsible. I'd have thought that would be screamingly obvious but apparently it needs to be spelled out

Ignore everything except for my original comment and your original comment for a moment.

Snowflake Royal
NewCorkSeth Paraphrasing here but Clement said not to blame Gourley as he has nothing to do with the tactics, players, performances etc.

He's really calling himself the only person to blame there..

Really? No one who has gone before or the players?

It's a manager's job to take responsibility... good on him for doing so, doesn't mean the issues are actually down to him. He's just the one who has to try to fix them.

That's you disagreeing with me saying Clement is calling himself the only person to blame.

Then Hound joins in and says:

Snowflake Royal
Hound Really? I read it as him basically staying the buck stops with him

Yeah, seems pretty obvious doesn't it. I think ncs has lost the plot.


And you agree with him. What is the massive difference you see between "Clement says the buck stops with him" and "Clement is calling himself the only person to blame"?

I imagine your just going to post an eyeroll rather than actually respond but I cannot see a huge difference (one that makes 1 correct and the other incorrect) between those 2 comments.

:roll: :lol: :wink:

Ok, the issue here is that similar but different words have different meanings and you seem to be missing some subtleties of my posts, maybe through my own lack of clarity.

Firstly, I completely disagree with your inference from Clement saying Gourlay isn't to blame with Clement implying he is the only one to blame. Ruling one person out doesn't rule everyone and everything else out as well. And even if Clement had actually said it, I would still be disagreeing with it, because it's wrong and I would see it for the sanitised corporate message it would be.

Secondly, there is a difference between 'blame' and 'responsibility'. Clement deflecting blame from Gourlay is taking responsibility, but not necessarily blame. It is a manager's job to take responsibility. They are the one employed to fix problems. Clement would have total responsibility to sort our mess out even if Stam was wholly to blame. The manager is there to act as the focus and deflect pressure from others. He is assuming focus and responsibility, without actively saying he is totally toblame.

Thirdly, you need to remember that what any club rep says is sanitised and communicated through professional and corporate filters. What Clement says, means and thinks are not necessarily the same thing. See McDermott claiming he identified and pushed for the signing of Pogrebnyak whilst employed by AZ, whuch turned out to be hogwash.

Finally, there is nothing underhanded, dishonest or deceitful about what Clement has said when you consider these things. He is saying the right things, taking the right responsibilities and acknowledging the problems that exist.

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Re: Clement

by Denver Royal » 02 Nov 2018 14:12

Lower West Clement needs time and a fair crack. Little point in churning managers. A period of stability is what's required.

LW, Sean Dyche in the Express today said, among other things, that he won't be managing at 65 (as some currently are), and that "The future of management will change. It's going to be a future of hopping around clubs. It will be a one-season mentality, possibly."

(There was also a snippet from the Express today that...'Clement has 2 games to save his job').

But yes, I hear you, and a part of me agrees with you. A period of stability would have some merit, given our recent history with various managers.


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Re: Clement

by John Smith » 02 Nov 2018 15:01

Lower West Clement needs time and a fair crack. Little point in churning managers. A period of stability is what's required.

I totally agree. What difference would a new manager really make? Especially one of the calibre we are likely to attract? What do you seriously think Clement can do when his hands are effectively tied and we have a lot of dross bloating the squad already.

A lot of those players are due to leave this summer. We aren't going to get promoted so let's just ride this season out and clear things up in the summer for another push. If a team like Sheffield United can be sitting at the top of the league then we can with the right tweaks over the course of Jan/Summer

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Re: Clement

by Hound » 02 Nov 2018 16:04

John Smith
Lower West Clement needs time and a fair crack. Little point in churning managers. A period of stability is what's required.

I totally agree. What difference would a new manager really make? Especially one of the calibre we are likely to attract? What do you seriously think Clement can do when his hands are effectively tied and we have a lot of dross bloating the squad already.

A lot of those players are due to leave this summer. We aren't going to get promoted so let's just ride this season out and clear things up in the summer for another push. If a team like Sheffield United can be sitting at the top of the league then we can with the right tweaks over the course of Jan/Summer


Don't disagree JS, but the question is can PC keep us up?

If you could guarantee another season in the Chump next year, I suspect a majority would happily keep him here

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Lower West
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Re: Clement

by Lower West » 02 Nov 2018 19:10

John Smith If a team like Sheffield United can be sitting at the top of the league then we can with the right tweaks over the course of Jan/Summer


They've been up and down over the years.

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Re: Clement

by Snowflake Royal » 02 Nov 2018 21:16

Lower West
John Smith If a team like Sheffield United can be sitting at the top of the league then we can with the right tweaks over the course of Jan/Summer


They've been up and down over the years.

Yeah, went down, struggled to get back up for a bit, managed it eventually and then built towards this season.

Hopefully it won't take us as long to bounce back.


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Re: Clement

by Top Flight » 03 Nov 2018 05:32

Hound
John Smith
Lower West Clement needs time and a fair crack. Little point in churning managers. A period of stability is what's required.

I totally agree. What difference would a new manager really make? Especially one of the calibre we are likely to attract? What do you seriously think Clement can do when his hands are effectively tied and we have a lot of dross bloating the squad already.

A lot of those players are due to leave this summer. We aren't going to get promoted so let's just ride this season out and clear things up in the summer for another push. If a team like Sheffield United can be sitting at the top of the league then we can with the right tweaks over the course of Jan/Summer


Don't disagree JS, but the question is can PC keep us up?

If you could guarantee another season in the Chump next year, I suspect a majority would happily keep him here


Clement can definitely keep us up. He is doing a strong job so far in my opinion. We have no option than to ride out the tough times. This period was always going to happen. It wouldn't matter who the gaffer is. Clement is as good as anyone to turn our fortunes around.

He has clearly demonstrated that he understands the weaknesses in our set-up, team, squad etc. We have to support him as he searches for the solutions. He knew Centre Mid was a weak area. He brought in Meyler as an attempt to address the problems. That didn't work out and now he has tried to find a solution in Ezatolahi who actually does look like he could be the real deal. But as has been the case for us in recent times. We have been extremely unlucky as Ezatolahi is now injured.

Clement needs support, patience and understanding as well as time to solve the problems and it seems that no one is prepared to give him any of those things. It has been our impatience and inability to support any of our managers in recent times bar Stam that has got us into this sorry mess.

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Re: Clement

by Sutekh » 04 Nov 2018 11:28

So, pressure eases on PC slightly but will he go if the club fail to beat Ipswich bearing in mind after the international break it's trips to Wigan and Leeds and home games with Stoke and Sheffield United where Reading getting anything more than a point might be seen as success!

Even if the club do beat Ipswich those next 4 games may well mean the end anyway....

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Re: Clement

by Snowflake Royal » 04 Nov 2018 11:38

Sutekh So, pressure eases on PC slightly but will he go if the club fail to beat Ipswich bearing in mind after the international break it's trips to Wigan and Leeds and home games with Stoke and Sheffield United where Reading getting anything more than a point might be seen as success!

Even if the club do beat Ipswich those next 4 games may well mean the end anyway....

I'm going to stick my neck out and say there is no way he's getting sacked post Ipswich no matter the result.

Not only that but we won't lose all four of the following games either.

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Re: Clement

by Zip » 04 Nov 2018 12:30

Sutekh So, pressure eases on PC slightly but will he go if the club fail to beat Ipswich bearing in mind after the international break it's trips to Wigan and Leeds and home games with Stoke and Sheffield United where Reading getting anything more than a point might be seen as success!

Even if the club do beat Ipswich those next 4 games may well mean the end anyway....


If we draw with Ipswich and I think he is still safe. Lose and it may be goodbye. Win and we go into the Wigan game with some much needed momentum.

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Re: Clement

by Lower West » 04 Nov 2018 13:10

Sutekh So, pressure eases on PC slightly but will he go if the club fail to beat Ipswich bearing in mind after the international break it's trips to Wigan and Leeds and home games with Stoke and Sheffield United where Reading getting anything more than a point might be seen as success!



Any points away from home should be treated as a bonus. Picking up wins away from home is in essence promotion form. Norwich are currently top and even they aren't even averaging 2 points a game. Being some weeks away little point worrying about future fixtures until we know whose available for selection.

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Re: Clement

by windermereROYAL » 04 Nov 2018 13:37

It`s probably the most open championship in many years, top teams losing to bottom teams seems to quite normal. it could well be 50 points needed to stay up this season.
So we are going to need to get a good percentage of points on the road.

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Lower West
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Re: Clement

by Lower West » 04 Nov 2018 13:54

Denver Royal
Lower West Clement needs time and a fair crack. Little point in churning managers. A period of stability is what's required.

LW, Sean Dyche in the Express today said, among other things, that he won't be managing at 65 (as some currently are), and that "The future of management will change. It's going to be a future of hopping around clubs. It will be a one-season mentality, possibly."



Difficult to see this happening at lower league levels. Not the money to chop and change managers on a whim.

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