Teams to be Relegated 18-19

Who goes? You decide! (choose 3)

Birmingham
13
4%
Bolton
31
9%
Hull
53
16%
Ipswich
61
18%
Millwall
15
4%
Preston
22
7%
Queens Park Rangers
11
3%
Reading
63
19%
Rotherham
65
19%
 
Total votes: 334
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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Snowflake Royal » 12 Oct 2018 17:56

Kulshaw72RFC wrote:
Snowflake Royal wrote:
fred sharpes nose wrote:Last season after 10 games the bottom 7 included Brentford (and us) after 46 games swap out Brentford for Hull. So after 10 games 6 out of 7 were still there at season end. Eventually the trap door will open for us if we stay mired at this level. Luck may desert us this year. And to be clear - we are in a relegation struggle almost from day 1 of the season, none of this we're a talented squad too good to go down crap.

Yep. Ten games is the point the table definitely has meaning. If at least two of the current bottom six don't go down come the end of the season it'll be a surprise.


Who do you think will go down, Snowy?

I can't choose between Hull because they were so terrible against us (but it's only one game), perennial strugglers Rotherham, financial dopers QPR, hungover Millwall, or possibly points deducted Bolton and Birmingham to go down with us and Ipswich. I think I went for Millwall in the poll.

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Brain Traysers » 12 Oct 2018 18:21

Denver Royal wrote:Barrow has really regressed under Clement (so has Kelly).

Barrow is struggling to get in the team. It’s been huge, because we’re talking about an offensive player, who was our best player(?), player of the season, and who could command a big fee if we sold.

If Clement is as good as some say, he needs to get Barrow back on track, and even improve him over what he was, for several reasons.


I'm not sure how much Clement can be blamed - it looks like a genuine mean reversion to me. Last season Barrow outperformed his xG - he had around 0.25 actual goals per 90 vs 0.16 xG per 90; he scored around 50% more goals than he 'should' have and ranked in the top 10% in the league for doing so. A subsequent drop off is natural, but when that drop off is your main/only attacking threat from the previous season that's doubly bad.

If anything, we are lucky Bod has taken over the role as goal-scoring overachiever, although again don't expect that to last!

By the same token Kelly is an odd one. I'm really not sure where his level is, and its quite possibly not in the Championship. He was playing in the National League South only 2 and a half years ago, relatively late as a 20 year old - subsequently stepping up 4 leagues is a huge jump and he was a solid rotation performer as we finished third. If we were being honest he was realistically behind Williams and Swift who both had very good seasons, but also possibly Evans (who played in 9 more games than him, albeit often in the deeper role usually occupied by JvdB). As a local academy lad he would always be viewed with RTGs on, and perhaps we fooled ourselves into thinking he was a 21 years old top half Championship CM.

Its only natural that when you lose (i) the engine of Williams (who I assert was vitally important in 2016/17 by covering the space left by our full backs when they bombed forward - a huge source of attacking threat for us that season), (ii) the fitness/form of Swift, and (iii) the competence of JvdB and then end up playing more games in a weaker team overall (+ Kermorgant finished, Obita injured) you will get 'found out' a bit more.

At this stage (still only 22, about to turn 23) I think its probably more likely he is a good league 1 player than a championship player - that's not to say with more experience and crucially a confidence boosting run of form he couldn't eventually turn out to be the player we all wrongly remember from 2016/17.

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Hiram K Hackenbacker » 13 Oct 2018 23:35

Brain Traysers wrote:
Denver Royal wrote:Barrow has really regressed under Clement (so has Kelly).

Barrow is struggling to get in the team. It’s been huge, because we’re talking about an offensive player, who was our best player(?), player of the season, and who could command a big fee if we sold.

If Clement is as good as some say, he needs to get Barrow back on track, and even improve him over what he was, for several reasons.


I'm not sure how much Clement can be blamed - it looks like a genuine mean reversion to me. Last season Barrow outperformed his xG - he had around 0.25 actual goals per 90 vs 0.16 xG per 90; he scored around 50% more goals than he 'should' have and ranked in the top 10% in the league for doing so. A subsequent drop off is natural, but when that drop off is your main/only attacking threat from the previous season that's doubly bad.

If anything, we are lucky Bod has taken over the role as goal-scoring overachiever, although again don't expect that to last!

By the same token Kelly is an odd one. I'm really not sure where his level is, and its quite possibly not in the Championship. He was playing in the National League South only 2 and a half years ago, relatively late as a 20 year old - subsequently stepping up 4 leagues is a huge jump and he was a solid rotation performer as we finished third. If we were being honest he was realistically behind Williams and Swift who both had very good seasons, but also possibly Evans (who played in 9 more games than him, albeit often in the deeper role usually occupied by JvdB). As a local academy lad he would always be viewed with RTGs on, and perhaps we fooled ourselves into thinking he was a 21 years old top half Championship CM.

Its only natural that when you lose (i) the engine of Williams (who I assert was vitally important in 2016/17 by covering the space left by our full backs when they bombed forward - a huge source of attacking threat for us that season), (ii) the fitness/form of Swift, and (iii) the competence of JvdB and then end up playing more games in a weaker team overall (+ Kermorgant finished, Obita injured) you will get 'found out' a bit more.

At this stage (still only 22, about to turn 23) I think its probably more likely he is a good league 1 player than a championship player - that's not to say with more experience and crucially a confidence boosting run of form he couldn't eventually turn out to be the player we all wrongly remember from 2016/17.

I agree

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Green » 16 Oct 2018 14:26

stealthpapes wrote:I hear Fleetwood is delightful this time of year.

Looks like a Northern Isle of Sheppey.

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by glass half full » 19 Oct 2018 14:37

Hull, Rotherham, Preston. (No Reading. I am 'Glass Half Full!)


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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Sutekh » 24 Oct 2018 09:36

Have to say from what I've seen so fat this season Hull City and Reading are comfortably the worst teams. Highly questionable whether either will get out of trouble. Still got Ipswich to see which will be interesting in a couple of weeks to see whether Reading are still 4 goals worse than them.

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by John Smith » 24 Oct 2018 09:41

Sutekh wrote:Have to say from what I've seen so fat this season Hull City and Reading are comfortably the worst teams. Highly questionable whether either will get out of trouble. Still got Ipswich to see which will be interesting in a couple of weeks to see whether Reading are still 4 goals worse than them.

Thoughts on Preston and Rotherham? Who will you be choosing to watch tonight on red button?

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Kulshaw72RFC » 24 Oct 2018 09:46

John Smith wrote:
Sutekh wrote:Have to say from what I've seen so fat this season Hull City and Reading are comfortably the worst teams. Highly questionable whether either will get out of trouble. Still got Ipswich to see which will be interesting in a couple of weeks to see whether Reading are still 4 goals worse than them.

Thoughts on Preston and Rotherham? Who will you be choosing to watch tonight on red button?


I would rather burn my bollocks on the hob then watch that.

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Sutekh » 24 Oct 2018 09:54

John Smith wrote:
Sutekh wrote:Have to say from what I've seen so fat this season Hull City and Reading are comfortably the worst teams. Highly questionable whether either will get out of trouble. Still got Ipswich to see which will be interesting in a couple of weeks to see whether Reading are still 4 goals worse than them.

Thoughts on Preston and Rotherham? Who will you be choosing to watch tonight on red button?


Preston and Rotherham are limited this season but both seem to have a bit more spirit about them and Rotherham are used to battling relegation at this level. Not seen enough of that in Reading and certainly not consistently. Then you look at the fixture list and Reading's games thus far haven't exactly featured many of the leading lights of the division this season.


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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Hound » 24 Oct 2018 09:56

Sutekh wrote:Have to say from what I've seen so fat this season Hull City and Reading are comfortably the worst teams. Highly questionable whether either will get out of trouble. Still got Ipswich to see which will be interesting in a couple of weeks to see whether Reading are still 4 goals worse than them.


comfortably the worst? I think we've generally looked ok after the first 6 games where we were poor. Still pretty confident we are on roughly the right track for a lower mid table finish. Mainly because we do look like scoring goals - as opposed to last year, where we were 100% one of the 3 worst teams after Christmas and really did look like a team who deserved to go down

Reckon Bolton have run out of steam and will go. Along with Rotherham and Hull

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Kulshaw72RFC » 24 Oct 2018 11:29

100% we will go down.

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by John Smith » 10 Jan 2019 15:20

Brain Traysers wrote:Rotherham - really struggling for open play goals, and unable to effectively play the attacking style of football that got them promoted.
Ipswich - massively overachieved last season despite playing awful football, finished mid table pretty much solely due to McCarthy and his set piece focus, his reward was the sack. Hurst is solid but they are much worse than their finish last season suggests.
Us - we played better in the first few games and were unlucky (/making stupid mistakes), then played worse but got some results (+ 1 false dawn good win vs Hull), and now are playing badly and getting what we deserve. Can see the atmosphere getting very toxic if we don't win the home games against Millwall and Ipswich, and a negative spiral thereafter. Ultimately we look so weak at generating chances - we essentially rely on Swift who doesn't look fully fit or in form, and I think it's unlikely Bod will be able to continue his hot start, unless he is suddenly a different player to the rest of his career. Barrow was so key last season and scored more than stats suggest he should have - his regression back to the mean this season is also damaging.

Brain Taysers winning so far...

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Jagermesiter1871 » 10 Jan 2019 16:52

Ipswich
Rotherham
Bolton

Blue and white goggles.


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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by URZZZZ » 10 Jan 2019 17:13

24th. Bolton
23rd. Wigan
22nd. Rotherham

Ipswich to stay up on the last day of the season...Reading to finish 17th, you heard it here first

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Brain Traysers » 10 Jan 2019 17:55

John Smith wrote:
Brain Traysers wrote:Rotherham - really struggling for open play goals, and unable to effectively play the attacking style of football that got them promoted.
Ipswich - massively overachieved last season despite playing awful football, finished mid table pretty much solely due to McCarthy and his set piece focus, his reward was the sack. Hurst is solid but they are much worse than their finish last season suggests.
Us - we played better in the first few games and were unlucky (/making stupid mistakes), then played worse but got some results (+ 1 false dawn good win vs Hull), and now are playing badly and getting what we deserve. Can see the atmosphere getting very toxic if we don't win the home games against Millwall and Ipswich, and a negative spiral thereafter. Ultimately we look so weak at generating chances - we essentially rely on Swift who doesn't look fully fit or in form, and I think it's unlikely Bod will be able to continue his hot start, unless he is suddenly a different player to the rest of his career. Barrow was so key last season and scored more than stats suggest he should have - his regression back to the mean this season is also damaging.

Brain Taysers winning so far...


xG is a pointless metric etc etc

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by John Smith » 10 Jan 2019 17:56

Brain Traysers wrote:
John Smith wrote:Brain Taysers winning so far...


xG is a pointless metric etc etc

Possibly. Do you gamble much?

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Brain Traysers » 10 Jan 2019 18:05

John Smith wrote:
Brain Traysers wrote:
John Smith wrote:Brain Taysers winning so far...


xG is a pointless metric etc etc

Possibly. Do you gamble much?


I wish I had the disposable income to be able to meaningfully...

A few little bits here and there - am very happy to have got a double on City and Celtic to win their league titles just before the City - Liverpool game. The hype over Liverpool (particularly their defense) was far too much so the 2.15/1 looked too good value to miss. A little bit also went on a treble including Bayern - while they haven't been good under their new manager, Dortmund's numbers look unsustainably high, but they have built a big buffer at the top so that's a much longer shot.

I intended to back us and Ipswich to get relegated (BIL is a ITFC fan), but never got round to it. Possibly physiologically held back from the extreme Judas bet.

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Jan 2019 18:55

Snowflake Royal wrote:
Kulshaw72RFC wrote:
Snowflake Royal wrote:Yep. Ten games is the point the table definitely has meaning. If at least two of the current bottom six don't go down come the end of the season it'll be a surprise.


Who do you think will go down, Snowy?

I can't choose between Hull because they were so terrible against us (but it's only one game), perennial strugglers Rotherham, financial dopers QPR, hungover Millwall, or possibly points deducted Bolton and Birmingham to go down with us and Ipswich. I think I went for Millwall in the poll.

I'm pretty happy with this tbh.

I'll nail down third place as Bolton given they continue to renege on payments and have fallen apart after a promising start.

Our survival is dependent on a big points deduction on Brum or one of the others falling to pieces.

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Mid Sussex Royal » 10 Jan 2019 19:19

i'm still sticking with 2 of my original 3, Bolton and Ipswich.

Relegation Lambert has done nothing yet, I never get how that guy gets job after job, must do a decent interview I guess, and Bolton are a mess behind the scenes and also have a poor squad.

Hull - got that completely wrong, must have based it on the game here.

Reckon its us, Rotherham or Wigan for final place. Millwall could potentially go bad again but home form should see them ok. Can't see anyone else beyond them, although some years a side nose dives from mid table (like us under Bullivant).

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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Hound » 11 Jan 2019 12:29

You'd think Ipswich and Bolton are nailed on. Bolton's chairman is acting like a complete knob, poor playing side and no money. Ipswich - poor side and manager, and 10 points adrift

Wigan and Rotherham are both rubbish sides, and we should be able to catch them if we put some sort of run together. Its a huge 'If' though, and we need to start in the next 2 games

Preston seem to have completely hit the skids again, though think they are far enough clear unless they have a terrible end to the season

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