Worth a flutter?

JR
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Worth a flutter?

by JR » 05 Jan 2019 10:10

33/1 at Bet 365 for Reading to win - surely ridiculous odds for a two horse race.

Also, remember it will be Man United B vs Rejuvinated Reading.

There is also the effect of the shackles of the league relegation battle being released meaning players will be less likely to cut-out the silly errors.

Finally, a new manager in place with an attacking style means our squad players will be eager to impress.

Clearly on the face of it with form, club history and league position then 33/1 doesn’t sound crazy - but quite possibly worth a flutter when you delve a bit deeper?!

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Elm Park Kid » 05 Jan 2019 10:30

JR 33/1 at Bet 365 for Reading to win - surely ridiculous odds for a two horse race.

Also, remember it will be Man United B vs Rejuvinated Reading.

There is also the effect of the shackles of the league relegation battle being released meaning players will be less likely to cut-out the silly errors.

Finally, a new manager in place with an attacking style means our squad players will be eager to impress.

Clearly on the face of it with form, club history and league position then 33/1 doesn’t sound crazy - but quite possibly worth a flutter when you delve a bit deeper?!


Me fighting Tyson Fury would also be a 'two horse race' . . .

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Snowflake Royal » 05 Jan 2019 10:59

33/1 seems generous for our chances. 100/1 seems more bloody likely.

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Royal Rother
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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Royal Rother » 05 Jan 2019 11:07

There have been many examples of struggling Champ clubs turning over lofty opponents so to my mind 33/1 is very generous.

Can I see it happening?

Absolutely not.

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LUX
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Re: Worth a flutter?

by LUX » 05 Jan 2019 11:09

three-horse race

Home/draw/Away.

Anyway, I've got a tenner at 33/1 and a tenner on the draw at 11/1

Paddy Power.


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Re: Worth a flutter?

by windermereROYAL » 05 Jan 2019 11:16

I will do the calculation, if you put £10 on at 33/1 you lose a tenner.

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Dr_Hfuhruhurr » 05 Jan 2019 11:16

JR 33/1 at Bet 365 for Reading to win - surely ridiculous odds for a two horse race.


Well, its actually a three horse race.
I know its popular to wish Man United the worst of luck; but I cant remember an iota of form which suggests we're getting anywhere near anything out of this.

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by LUX » 05 Jan 2019 11:18

lump everything on Man U at 1/16, then.

Kushti.

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Snowflake Royal » 05 Jan 2019 12:00

Royal Rother There have been many examples of struggling Champ clubs turning over lofty opponents so to my mind 33/1 is very generous.

Can I see it happening?

Absolutely not.

Probably not so many examples of worsening Championship clubs turning over resurgent PL contenders they've never beaten before (I think) though


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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Jackson Corner » 05 Jan 2019 12:32

330/1 I still wouldn’t put a quid on.

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Snowball » 05 Jan 2019 12:41

Please remember no second-tier club has ever won away at a first-tier club

The very idea is ridiculous

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by JR » 05 Jan 2019 14:05

Reading much the better side in the first half showing that was definitely worth a flutter at 33/1.

Sadly quality showed with the second goal.

Very pleased with our efforts here though.

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by BR0B0T » 05 Jan 2019 14:59

Jackson Corner 330/1 I still wouldn’t put a quid on.


then you don't understand probability


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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Snowflake Royal » 05 Jan 2019 17:51

BR0B0T
Jackson Corner 330/1 I still wouldn’t put a quid on.


then you don't understand probability

He understands the difference between a bookmaker that covers every game protecting themselves systemically and the actual chances of us winning that game... which were basically zero, hence no bet on us winning having any value.

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by JR » 05 Jan 2019 18:06

Snowflake Royal
BR0B0T
Jackson Corner 330/1 I still wouldn’t put a quid on.


then you don't understand probability

He understands the difference between a bookmaker that covers every game protecting themselves systemically and the actual chances of us winning that game... which were basically zero, hence no bet on us winning having any value.


If that game was replayed 20 times we would win at least 1 of them imho - hence 20/1 would have been sensible odds

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by BR0B0T » 05 Jan 2019 18:14

JR
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BR0B0T
then you don't understand probability

He understands the difference between a bookmaker that covers every game protecting themselves systemically and the actual chances of us winning that game... which were basically zero, hence no bet on us winning having any value.


If that game was replayed 20 times we would win at least 1 of them imho - hence 20/1 would have been sensible odds


given something like this being probable^^^

ex_value = £311

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Snowflake Royal » 05 Jan 2019 18:19

JR
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BR0B0T
then you don't understand probability

He understands the difference between a bookmaker that covers every game protecting themselves systemically and the actual chances of us winning that game... which were basically zero, hence no bet on us winning having any value.


If that game was replayed 20 times we would win at least 1 of them imho - hence 20/1 would have been sensible odds

It's not though. It's played once and we were never winning it.

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BR0B0T
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Re: Worth a flutter?

by BR0B0T » 05 Jan 2019 18:22

Snowflake Royal
JR
Snowflake Royal He understands the difference between a bookmaker that covers every game protecting themselves systemically and the actual chances of us winning that game... which were basically zero, hence no bet on us winning having any value.


If that game was replayed 20 times we would win at least 1 of them imho - hence 20/1 would have been sensible odds

It's not though. It's played once and we were never winning it.


why bother playing it then?

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Royal Rother » 05 Jan 2019 20:25

Jeez, what a daft discussion, as ever dominated by Mr Dogmatic. :lol:

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Re: Worth a flutter?

by Dr_Hfuhruhurr » 06 Jan 2019 10:54

Only on HNA? could a losing bet be argued to be a good bet.

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