THE BETTING THREAD

[Top Flight]

1871, keep your results posted as well. Let's see how we get on.

I set my £1000 target in order to give me something to aim for and to help me maintain my discipline. I've got Betfair up to just shy of £200 but I know I have the whole of the rest of the season to go to get to my target, so there is no need for me to panic. I can stay calm and choose my bets carefully.

There are so many might have beens in betting. My position could be so much better than it is at the moment. I tried to cash out of the Gillingham game before Sheffield United scored the winner but my cash out was unsuccessful and I interpreted that as a divine message from up above telling me to stay the course in that game for a bigger win. But, it was really the naughty satan messaging me. Because United then did score the winner and I lost the bet.

I was going to lay Slovakia before the England game at a price of 5.5. No one matched me at that price and the backers wanted 5.6 and I didn't match them. I could have won on the England game. Also with the game heading in to injury time, I set up a bet at 12 to 1 on England to win with a tenner on. All I had to do was hit place the bet. But I didn't have the balls to execute and missed out on a £110 profit. I think I'm getting hit by fear and greed at the moment. I was too greedy to cash out on Gillingham when my instincts were telling me Sheffield were going to grab a winner and I was too fearful of losing a tenner on England as I didn't have the balls to back them when they were getting bodies in the box and a winner looked a real possibility at a great price.

[Sanguine]

12 to 1 is not a great price for a goal to be scored in the next 2-3 minutes. If you dvidie the game up into 3 minute blocks, you need odds of 30 to 1 to make a profit in the long-run.

You are making the simple beginners' mistake of being results driven - you were right not to bet on England at 12/1, because it was a poor value bet. Because England scored, you think you were wrong to have avoided.

Similarly, what value did you imply from Slovakia's odds of 5.5? You were prepared to risk £55 to win £10 on a lay bet? Why? How stupid would that have looked at they poked home from a yard out in the first half?

Stop analysing post game whether your bets were right or wrong. Doing things 'the right way' is about taking the right approach, not how much you win. That's the concept you can't get your head around.

[Top Flight]

Sanguine, I have a question for you. You asked me why I put £40 on United, almost my whole account on one game risking my bankroll. The thing is, when you are down to £60, you are down to your last 1 or 2 bets anyway aren't you? I don't really see what I did wrong with that? I have to recover my position some how. Isn't it better to bet on one team that is highly likely to win and risk a bit more to recover the position? How would you have bet in this siituation?

Are you so desperate to reach your target that you can't bet smaller increments?
Had Rashford not scored, you'd have been as good as out. Had the bet been a tenner and United hadn't won, you'd still have £50 to 'recover your position'.
As LWJ said, it's very easy to set a % limit of total available bankroll.
You bet too much in profiting £22 laying the Czech Rep. What were their odds? If they had won, you'd have lost around £40, right?

Stop dressing this up as a genuine attempt to 'get better' and listen to advice - you have ignored pretty much every bit of advice that has come your way.

Back to the £60 thing. I put £20 in Ladbrokes on the first day of the season and now have £63.40.
Two points on that - a) at the same profit rate, you'd now have £634, and b) £63.40 is not 'one or two bets', because I'm managing my bankroll. Largest bet so far has been £5.

Sanguine, isn't the way that we're betting important as well. What I mean by that is, you are betting small amounts on risky acca's with a low chance of coming off. If they do come off though, you are going to win big.

I, on the other hand am betting on single matches and to increase my chances of winning the bet, I am covering two out of three outcomes. By laying off one of the teams, if the game is drawn or won by my favoured team, I win the bet. I win small, but I will win often. If I had laid Slovakia, I was highly likely to win that bet. Of course the potential loss would have been higher, but the winning of the bet was extremely likely.

Doesn't that mean I can risk more per game?

On my greyhounds bet, I only bet a fiver because the chances of my dog winning were about 1 in 6. I got a price of 9 to 1. I won the bet and won reasonably big compared to my other wins and for less money risked.

The way the race went, my dog was 50/50 in reality. He had a close race with the favourite and edged it by one of his little whiskers crossing the line before the favourite could get his snout through.

[Sanguine]

No, it doesn't matter. Bankroll management is about staking, not potential winnings. Your perception is driven by your desire to reach your £1000 target. You simply aren't prepared to bet in small increments.
And for someone who doesn't understand value, you shouldn't be thinking about laying anything at 5.5.

And no, I'm not generally betting accas, I've had two this season. I've won money on a couple of doubles and two correct score bets.

[Top Flight]

Regarding the Czech Republic / Northern Ireland game.

I started off by risking £90 to win £20 if the Czech's won or drew the game. I laid off Northern Ireland. The way the first half had gone though, Northern Ireland defended in typical heroic fashion and they looked the more likely to win the game either on the counter or from a set piece with big guys like Lafferty, Evans. Mcauley getting on the end of things. The Czech's seemed to panic when the Irish were getting balls in to their box. So at half time, I decided to cash out because I lost faith in the Czech's. I made a £3 profit cashing out.

At half time, I turned the bet around. The Czech's were still priced quite short to win the game, so I laid them off instead. I had £24 risked to make £22 profit. As it turned out, the Czech's looked the most likely to win in the second half so I was again probably on the wrong half of the bet. The Irish defended stoutly, gave away a couple of gilt edged chances which the Czechs failed to score and held out for the draw. In the end, as the game was drawn I would have won no matter which team I laid off. But in the second half, I was risking less money.

[Sanguine]

I started off by risking £90 to win £20 if the Czech's won or drew the game.

'Nuff said. It's taken me longer than most to realise I am shouting into an empty room.

[Winston Smith]

Risking £90 to win £20! The the f does that?!

[Pepe the Horseman]

Top Flight - can you please stop gambling, so we can go back to enjoying this thread?

[Pepe the Horseman]

Or limit your posts to two lines.

[Top Flight]

I started off by risking £90 to win £20 if the Czech's won or drew the game.

'Nuff said. It's taken me longer than most to realise I am shouting into an empty room.

i'm definitely going to change my approach from now. I just thought my account size is too small to stick to hard and fast rules about limiting my stake size to just 5% of my bank roll. For example, it would have meant that I should only bet £3 on Man Utd. I would have only won £1.30 which meant my account would have been staying low for a while.

What I might do instead is bet more frequently. One major issue has certainly been that I have been making a lot of right calls and not betting on them. I seem to always bet on a wrong call and bet on only some of my right calls.

I will bet smaller and more often. That way, I'm limiting risk and will hopefully be as profitable as you have been so far this season.

[Top Flight]

In order to prove that I am listening to you Sanguine and am now practicing very stricht risk and money management rules I have placed the following bet:

Just a £2 stake which represents only 1.4% of my bankroll (Good money management practice being applied here)

It is a 4-fold ACCA.

Serbia V Rep. of Ireland - DRAW @ 3.2
Spain v Liechtenstein - SPAIN @ 1.015
Ukraine v Iceland - DRAW @ 3.5
Wealdstone v Weston Super Mare - WEALDSTONE @ 2.0

£2 returns £45.47

I don't think this will come off. But, you never know. I'll give it a go.

[Sanguine]

Go for it.

But you're missing/not understanding my points. Strict bankroll management - yes, you should have bet £3 on United, on the 5% rule. You can set any threshold yourself. The point is leaving you with a bankroll when (inevitably, it happens to everyone) you lose a bet.

The results of your bets are not ultimately what determines whether or not your bet was 'right'. That's the bit you can't grasp.

I went to Vegas last summer and entered some fairly expensive poker tournaments.
Of those I played two across 48 hours. First I played excellent poker, made some great reads, and stayed on the right side of pot equity - then made one big mistake and was out. Second - frustrated I guess at the first, I played a lot looser, made some pretty horrific plays, but got lucky and ultimately cashed for a lot of money. That I won second time around doesn't mean I didn't play the better poker in the first.

If you really want to do things 'right', you need to separate your decisions from your results. I'd suggest you don't and just enjoy having a gamble.

[Top Flight]

Betfair are offering me a promotion. I did really well out of the last promotion that betfair offered me so I'm strongly considering whether to have another crack. Betfair are offering to give me a free £5 bet on the sportsbook if I do a £20 spin on the roulette wheel.

I have a chance to turn £20 in to £40 as I will obviously go red or black and then a further chance to win with a free £5 bet on the sportsbook.

I'm not sure whether this is a good idea though. On the downside I will lose £20. On the upside I have an almost 50/50 chance to go from £20 to £40 and then a chance to win another fiver with my five pound sportsbook bet. Who has the edge on this one?

[Sanguine]

Betfair are offering me a promotion. I did really well out of the last promotion that betfair offered me so I'm strongly considering whether to have another crack. Betfair are offering to give me a free £5 bet on the sportsbook if I do a £20 spin on the roulette wheel.

I have a chance to turn £20 in to £40 as I will obviously go red or black and then a further chance to win with a free £5 bet on the sportsbook.

I'm not sure whether this is a good idea though. On the downside I will lose £20. On the upside I have an almost 50/50 chance to go from £20 to £40 and then a chance to win another fiver with my five pound sportsbook bet. Who has the edge on this one?

Oh do fcuk off.

You only get one spin. Who do you think has the edge?

[One8Seven1*]

Except when you lose, of course.

Of course, but less so if you remain patient and make withdrawals as you go. You'll always lose bets, but more often than not you'll win small. Let it build up and take some of those winnings out occasionally.

As I said, my £10 stake after some months won me around £140 in the end. I called half of it in (£60 profit) and carried on playing with the rest. Only I got restless and betted larger amounts on more risky games and lost the remainder - but I still came out on top because I made that withdrawal and didn't put it back in. If your patient, you can enjoy betting, watch the money grow a little each week, and you can take some back as you go. It won't be everyone's cup of tea, and you wont win big doing it, but you do tend to win (small gains add up). I enjoy it.

[Victor Meldrew]

I joined up with BetFair yesterday for their 7/1 on a £10 stake. I almost wee'd when we scored in the seconds.

I also agree with Sanguine. In the past I have always bet £5's, small bets, and almost always on what look like bankers with low odds. You need patience, but at my peak an initial tenner had me £140 in the account. At which point I withdrew half, and carried on (and lost the rest because I lost patience and got greedy).

I'll now play with patience again, build it up, withdraw occasionally and keep going. You still get the buzz of gambling, but you win.

I like the bit "withdrew half" as long as you did something with the money such as buying something that might last more than a minute.
You can at least look at what you bought, enjoy it and think "my betting paid for that".

[Top Flight]

Betfair are offering me a promotion. I did really well out of the last promotion that betfair offered me so I'm strongly considering whether to have another crack. Betfair are offering to give me a free £5 bet on the sportsbook if I do a £20 spin on the roulette wheel.

I have a chance to turn £20 in to £40 as I will obviously go red or black and then a further chance to win with a free £5 bet on the sportsbook.

I'm not sure whether this is a good idea though. On the downside I will lose £20. On the upside I have an almost 50/50 chance to go from £20 to £40 and then a chance to win another fiver with my five pound sportsbook bet. Who has the edge on this one?

Oh do fcuk off.

You only get one spin. Who do you think has the edge?

I've also laid Weston Super Mare tonight on Betfair. If Wealdstone win or it's a draw I will only win £3. But I'm operating within Sanguine's 5% money management rules. My liability is only £7.80.

So those are my two bets for today. One ACCA on B365 and one lay off on Betfair. On to another night of football.

[Top Flight]

Just got back from watching the Wealdstone game. They won it 1-0.

Both my bets won tonight. My bankroll now stands at:

Bet365: £192
Betfair: £195

I can't believe that 4 fold ACCA came in. Double d, is that the best way to bet? Acca's?
Sanguine, I made good progress on my accounts and I kept my stakes within 2% of my bankroll. I am learning the lessons. It's tough to stay disciplined like that but I understand the benefits. Wealdstone could have easily failed to win tonight.

[double d]

Just got back from watching the Wealdstone game. They won it 1-0.

Both my bets won tonight. My bankroll now stands at:

Bet365: £192
Betfair: £195

I can't believe that 4 fold ACCA came in. Double d, is that the best way to bet? Acca's?
Sanguine, I made good progress on my accounts and I kept my stakes within 2% of my bankroll. I am learning the lessons. It's tough to stay disciplined like that but I understand the benefits. Wealdstone could have easily failed to win tonight.

Few accas every weekend is best way for me. 5ver per one, can win lot's of money if they come in

[Top Flight]

I'm going to join you on an Acca this weekend.

My ACCA might be a lower division one though. Funny things happen to Championship sides after international breaks. Previous form can go out the window. I wouldn't like to call Reading v Ipswich on Friday.