End of season Magic Number countdown.

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Ian Royal
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End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Ian Royal » 10 Mar 2017 13:13

Right, ten games to go, play off finishing line in sight. So here's a thread to countdown our end to the season using Magic Numbers.

We have 10 games to go, which means there are 30 points remaining to us. The top of the league looks like this:

1 Newcastle P 36, PT 77
2 Brighton P 36, PT 74
3 Huddersfield P35, PT 68
4 Leeds P36, PT 65
5 Reading P36, PT 64
6 Sheff Weds P36, PT 62
7 Fulham P35, PT 57

Newcastle can still get 107 points.
Brighton can still get 104 points
We can get 94 points
Fulham can get 90 points

The Magic Numbers (some combination of us gaining and other teams dropping points to guarantee us the following position)
Champions: 44 points (R gain 30, N drop 14, B drop 11, H drop 5, L drop 2)
Runners Up: 41 points (R gain 30, B drop 11, H drop 5, L drop 2)
Sixth and Play Offs: 27 points
Points remaining: 30

Play Offs remain in our hands, minor miracle needed for more.

Edited: so SF can understand, I'll double check numbers at home as currently posting ftom my phone.
Last edited by Ian Royal on 10 Mar 2017 14:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Silver Fox
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Silver Fox » 10 Mar 2017 13:59

So if we win all our games and Newcastle lose 5 we'll be champions?

Not sure you've thought this through Ian

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Ian Royal
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Ian Royal » 10 Mar 2017 14:15

Silver Fox wrote:So if we win all our games and Newcastle lose 5 we'll be champions?

Not sure you've thought this through Ian

Not specifically and solely Newcastle. They do need to lose 5 and us win all, but clearly Brighton, Huddersfield and Leeds would also need to drop points. Crucially they'd need to drop fewer, so the points required remains the same, just more teams are involved than 2.

As the games go by and positions change the relevant team to watch may change and that will be reflected in the countdown. I'm afraid I'm well ahead of you. Apologies you can't score a point on this occasion.

However, seeing as you appear confused, I'll edit to make it more granular.

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Silver Fox » 10 Mar 2017 14:21

You've bitten off more than you can chew really Ian, 44 is not our magic number to be champions, it's our magic number to finish above Newcastle and so on.

You can only really have a magic number when you're top

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Ian Royal
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Ian Royal » 10 Mar 2017 14:26

It's simply the maximum points turnaround needed to guarantee finishing above the current top points.


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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Broxroyal » 10 Mar 2017 16:11

Realistically there is only any value in the magic number for us to make the play offs, i.e the difference between us and 7th (currently Fulham, of course).
So the magic number for play offs is 27 and will hopefully reduce rapidly after Saturday.

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Half Biscuit » 10 Mar 2017 16:42

Great that this thread has even returned at all, after two seasons when it would have been laughable.

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Sutekh » 10 Mar 2017 16:53

Broxroyal wrote:Realistically there is only any value in the magic number for us to make the play offs, i.e the difference between us and 7th (currently Fulham, of course).

So the magic number for play offs is 27 and will hopefully reduce rapidly after Saturday.


This is precisely what we need to be interested in currently. Depending on how that develops perhaps this time next month we can start to look more at magic numbers for grabbing 3rd or 4th and a home play off second leg.

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by maffff » 10 Mar 2017 17:00

WHERE'S THE ROUGEOMETER :?:


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Ian Royal
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Ian Royal » 10 Mar 2017 17:15

Sutekh wrote:
Broxroyal wrote:Realistically there is only any value in the magic number for us to make the play offs, i.e the difference between us and 7th (currently Fulham, of course).

So the magic number for play offs is 27 and will hopefully reduce rapidly after Saturday.


This is precisely what we need to be interested in currently. Depending on how that develops perhaps this time next month we can start to look more at magic numbers for grabbing 3rd or 4th and a home play off second leg.

It's certainly my focus, but I fancied marking out top two until they become impossible.
Will add in 3rd / 4th / 5th as we close in on the end of season and rule out / in 1st, 2nd and (hopefully) at least 6th.

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Ian Royal » 12 Mar 2017 11:18

Well this weekend didn't go great.

Champions: 41 (gain 27, N & B drop 14, H drop 8, L drop 3) -3
Runners up: 41 (ditto)
Play Offs (sixth): 27
Remaining: 27

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by percy_freeman » 12 Mar 2017 18:36

Anybody that even gives this twat the time of day has surely got issues.

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Half Biscuit » 12 Mar 2017 20:20

:D


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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by loyalroyal4life » 12 Mar 2017 21:43

percy_freeman wrote:Anybody that even gives this twat the time of day has surely got issues.

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Gordons Cumming » 13 Mar 2017 17:23

maffff wrote:WHERE'S THE ROUGEOMETER :?:


More appropriately.........................where is The Rouge?

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by maffff » 13 Mar 2017 17:55

Gordons Cumming wrote:
maffff wrote:WHERE'S THE ROUGEOMETER :?:


More appropriately.........................where is The Rouge?

Oh yeah.

That too.

But, Rougeometer.

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by bcubed » 13 Mar 2017 18:27

Rougeometer >>>>>>>>> Magic Number thread

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Ian Royal
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Ian Royal » 13 Mar 2017 18:39

bcubed wrote:Rougeometer >>>>>>>>> Magic Number thread

Agreed, but I'll see if I can spice it up a bit in tribute next time.

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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Jagermesiter1871 » 13 Mar 2017 18:43

Thaaat's Numberwang.

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Ian Royal
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Re: End of season Magic Number countdown.

by Ian Royal » 18 Mar 2017 21:20

Quite a good weekend there. :)

Champions: 36 (gain 24, N drop 12, B drop 11, H drop 8, L drop 3) - down 5
Runners up: 35 (B drop 11, H drop 8, L drop 3) - down 6
Play Offs (sixth): 19 - down 8
Remaining: 24[/quote]

This week's magic number is sponsored by the memory of the Rougeometer. Gone, but never forgotten.
Image
Last edited by Ian Royal on 18 Mar 2017 22:14, edited 1 time in total.

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