Relegation Watch

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leon
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Re: Relegation Watch

by leon » 21 Feb 2018 11:33

John Smith wrote:
leon wrote:I'm querying your somewhat shit logic.

Where do you see us finishing this season?


Playoffs.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by holsgrove breaks a leg » 21 Feb 2018 11:48

Never been too fussed on whether a passionate or passionless support Base means success or failure on the pitch. It has an edge, particularly at home but nothing that is evident ally obvious.

For example I don't remember our support in the last few seasons (clarke/mcdermott ) being spectacular but the team did enough to keep themselves well clear of relegation. The same can't be said this season when support levels are by and large the same.

It's a general corrosion of what is going on at the club and a blend of players and styles not suited to where we are at and the battle that is required. Plenty of teams with so called muted fan bases and small attendances eg Brentford, Bournemouth,Burton have had successes without the extra edge of a decent fan Base.

There are many things wrong with reading,probably quite complex and fans play a part but in terms of success on the pitch it is a nominal part. It is about rolling your sleeves up and getting the job done l on the pitch at this point,whether you have a squad of underachievers or a Burton type team maybe over their heads.

Take 1995/96 for example at reading fc, a team stripped of its key players and replaced with grafters. However the squad which was pretty poor that season battled hard and the 3 0 win v wolves was the culmination of that which secured safety. I just don't see the same application and concern on the pitch.

Whether we stay up or go down, I think it is next season which is the most important situation and one that must be put right in terms of transfer policy,playing style,academy and moving on the players that simply are not working well here.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by retro royal » 21 Feb 2018 11:50

Bet 365 are offering us at 12-1 to be relegated

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Victor Meldrew » 21 Feb 2018 12:01

retro royal wrote:Bet 365 are offering us at 12-1 to be relegated


Forest are 40/1.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Silver Fox » 21 Feb 2018 12:11

We were 10/1 before last night's games, so by that metric our survival chances have improved


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Re: Relegation Watch

by genome » 21 Feb 2018 12:18

John Smith wrote:Not tongue in cheek at all - the basis for my very near perfect prediction was that Nottingham Forest are total dross.


You predicted a win and we drew :lol:

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 21 Feb 2018 13:06

Jagermesiter1871 wrote:
Snowflake Royal wrote:Spectacularly missing the point the lot of you.

No one said everything is the fan's fault. They've said the fans aren't helping and are in fact contributing to the problem. The fans have little influence of what happens on the pitch, but what little influence they have can sometimes tip the balance a little.

It goes without saying the players and staff are performing badly. For the most part they are trying though. I'm not sure I can say the same for a lot of the fans, a vocal minority of whom seem to have had the knives out for Stam and the team since about game 7. The general atmosphere has been one of sulking in wait of entertainment and a quick turn to grumbling if things don't look good. We've started some games ok, but that usually peters out about 10 minutes in.

I'm not saying it's easy to back a team playing so insipidly. Put excitement in front of our lot and they can certainly make some noise under the right circumstances. But sometimes they need to try to take the initiative and inspire the players rather than vice versa. Especially when it's clear the players are struggling and things are going badly.

When you're at the bottom of the table, the fans getting behind the team loudly and positively could inspire a lift in performance to earn a draw, and one point could make the difference at the end of the season.


You've contradicted yourself about 5 times there Ian. If the fans have such little influence how come Stam dedicates the amount of interviews he does to blaming them? The guys a joke looking for a scapegoat.

if we have such little influence why even mention it.

Because he keeps being asked about the fans.

There's no contradiction, just nuance.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Stranded » 21 Feb 2018 15:37

Silver Fox wrote:We were 10/1 before last night's games, so by that metric our survival chances have improved


They have improved since before the weekend. Points gap is the same to 22nd and most teams below us have now played a game more than us. The only 2 that don't play each other the same night we host Sheff Utd.

Weekend fixtures

Hull V Sheff Utd (Fri)
Brum V Barnsley
Burton V Millwall
Norwich V Bolton
Reading V Derby
Sunderland V Middlesborough

IF we can get the home form off our back, good chance to pull away this week.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Longhorn1970 » 21 Feb 2018 16:18

Snowball wrote:
windermereROYAL wrote:
Silver Fox wrote:
That's a tough fixture list for Bolton :shock: :wink: I think I concur with your thinking though


I say let`s try and isolate the bottom 2 so lets have us to win (obviously) and Sunderland and Burton to get beat.



IF we win (and I think we will, comfortably) I'd like to see

Boro beat Hull

Brentford beating Birmingham

Burton & Barnsley 0-0

Bolton & Sunderland 0-0

That would be three more points clear of two teams and two more points clear of four


"You may think I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one" J. Lennon ..


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Forbury Lion » 21 Feb 2018 19:02

On BBC Berks Adie Williams was going on about some stats that "The voice of Reading", Tim Dellor bought up suggesting we're 4 wins away from safety and if that is the case, he seems to think even a team in poor form should get 4 wins out of 17 so he's backing us to stay up.

4 wins = 12 points..... so I guess 12 draws will do or a combination... after the Forest game, make that 11 more draws!

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Zip » 21 Feb 2018 19:09

John Smith wrote:
bcubed wrote:
John Smith wrote:I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that we will win the game tonight.


I'm sure this was a bit tongue in cheek but (seriously) what was the basis for such optimism?
Or was it just wishful thinking?

Not tongue in cheek at all - the basis for my very near perfect prediction was that Nottingham Forest are total dross.

However, I must stress this again: there are some awful, awful teams in this league - importantly at least 3 more worse than us* which is why we will not be relegated.

*Namely Hull City - absolutely shocking with the worst manager in world football in charge. The fact they won at Forest at the weekend was 'the basis for my optimism'.


Your “very near perfect prediction” was hopelessly wrong.

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Eaststandman » 21 Feb 2018 19:39

Based on what John Smith says is a "very nearly perfect prediction"
I contacted the eurolottery people and claimed the jackpot!
They told me to go forth and multiply!

Do you see? :shock:

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 21 Feb 2018 20:32

Victor Meldrew wrote:
retro royal wrote:Bet 365 are offering us at 12-1 to be relegated


Forest are 40/1.



40s is amazing, two consecutive defeats and they
are seriously in danger of being in danger (cough)


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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 21 Feb 2018 20:37

windermereROYAL wrote:
Snowball wrote:
Hound wrote:Would have to say it all looks in our favour tonight. A defeat would be pretty crushing tbh


Lose tonight and it will feel like it's all over


I used to take you as one the intelligent posters on here, but this is just ... :roll:


You saw that word FEEL, Windy, right?

I didn't say "lose and it WILL be all over"

I think losing (getting one point less than we actually got)
in the context of the long, very poor run, the break, Forest's
team-worries, would have caused a melt-down thread
and the general sentiment would have been either as I said
or many saying that's it, we're done.

I'm thinking more of the psychology than the point

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Re: Relegation Watch

by strap » 08 Mar 2018 20:25

Haven't updated the original graphic yet, will do so after 36 games.

One thing I have done is check out the highest number of points a team has been relegated with from the 2nd tier since we went to 3 points for a win in 1981-82 season.

It varies from a low of 40 in 2015-16 and 2011-12 to a high of 54 points in 2012-13. Last season was 51. As I mentioned in the OP, I reckoned we would be safe with 45 points given the state of play after 32 games. Having had 3 games since then, I have revised my prediction and think we'll finish 18th with only 43 points, with Birmingham filling the last relegation place on 38 points. If that comes to pass, it will be the worst performance by the relegated teams since 81-82.

Working out 10 year moving averages suggests recent seasons are slightly lower than previous, being around the 45-46 mark. So if Birmingham do drop in the 3rd place with 38 points, it will prove this season's dross teams really ARE awful.

Of course last season's performances shouldn't really impact this season's, although it stands to reason if there are a good number of crap teams in one season, only 3 can go down, so the other dross is still around the next season.

Actually I'll update the graphic after the matches in 13th March as by then all 7 teams in the mix will have played 37 games each. Wonder if Sheffield Wednesday will have been dragged into the mire by then?

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Re: Relegation Watch

by strap » 08 Mar 2018 20:56

Just checked positions after 37 games over the last 10 seasons, and came up with this:

All 4 clubs in bottom 4 at end of season were bottom 4 after c.37 games - occurred 5 times in the last 10 seasons, and in each of the last 3 seasons.

It gets better:

All 3 clubs relegated were in bottom 3 after c.37 games - occurred 7 times in the last 10 seasons. Of the other 3 seasons, 2 of the 3 clubs relegated were in the bottom 3 after c.37 games.

Shame past performance is no indicator of future performance. Still, helps me get through the day!

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Silver Fox » 09 Mar 2018 12:44

Glad you're finally seeing the light strap!! :wink:

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Re: Relegation Watch

by John Smith » 09 Mar 2018 13:01

Abolish this unnecessary thread

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Re: Relegation Watch

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2018 13:08

11/1 to be relegated (SKY BET)

Although I think we will avoid going down, 11/1 is a very good bet.

100/1 to finish bottom

I think, if we do fall into the bottom three, bottom is very possible

250/1 to finish top half

Cough!

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Re: Relegation Watch

by John Smith » 09 Mar 2018 13:11

Snowball wrote:11/1 to be relegated (SKY BET)

Although I think we will avoid going down, 11/1 is a very good bet.

We obviously have different views on finances because I'd say a bet that's certain to lose is a shit one

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