by Royal1988 »
14 May 2018 23:49
This is my first post in a couple of years (other than a very short one about Lewis Ward last week), but I thought that this season had been so poor, it needed some Analysis.
Of course, there are simple answers such as "style of play", "not enough wins", "Jaap Stam" etc, but I wanted to look a little deeper than this, and so I have compiled this thread to look at the season in a lot more detail.
I have taken stats on all players except for Martin and Elphick, as I did not have any stats for them that were purely for when they played for us. I have also said what I read into these stats, and made some suggestions for what I felt could be the reasons behind this. bviously, there is no hard and fast rule as to what these stats should beso I have made my comments based purely on what I felt looked to be poor.
Note: I have included Obita's stats, but I have not included him in any of my comments, as he played less than 90 minutes, so I felt that it would be rather unfair to judge him on this. I have not included Holmes for the same reason.
All stats are from the offical site.
First, I looked at the season as a whole
Home Away
P W D L F A GD Pts W D L F A GD Pts GD PTS
46 5 8 10 25 35 -10 23 5 6 12 23 35 -12 21 -22 44
Our wins came from an average attendance of 19406
Our draws came from an average attendance of 16787
Our losses came from an average attendance of 18885
These tell me that despite the comments from Stam and the players, whether we were at home or away, and no matter how many were at the game, it didn’t make a whole lot of difference to the results. This in turn suggests to me that this particular problem was just in the players minds.
Breaking the season down into different periods, we achieved the following points totals:
1st 10 matches 9
2nd quarter (12 matches) 18
3rd quarter (12 matches) 7
Last quarter- (12 matches) 10
So, while we had a very poor first half of season, the second half was far worse.
Possible reasons I see for this:
The pressure of relegation fight may have got to them
They were too complacent and thought that we were safe and would not go down.
However, who we played did make a difference:
13 of a possible 48 points came from matches against teams who finished in the top 8 (29.5% of our points)
9 of a possible 48 points came from matches against teams who finished 9th to 16th (20.4% of our points)
22 of possible 42 points came from matches against teams who finished in the top 8 (50%) of our points)
So exactly half of our points came from the 7 other teams in the bottom 8, but when we played anyone that finished higher than this, we were pretty poor.
Possible reason:
Lack of quality in the team
Now let’s look a bit closer at the matches
First, team selections:
We only had an unchanged team once all season (from the Sunderland away match to the Cardiff home match
This many changes may have affected players morale through not knowing when/if they would be starting, but also may have had an impact on their fitness as they were not consistently getting their fitness levels up.
Possible Reason for this:
Some selections were down to injuries (avoidable or not), some due to a lack of fitness (which may have been down to a poor pre-season, poor training, or not enough game time)
Some were just purely down to Stam focusing too much on how the other team played, and not enough on us.
Some at the end of the season were down to red cards
How much of an effect did who scored first have?
We scored first 18 times.
Of these matches:
We won 10,
We drew 7,
We lost 1 (Millwall Away)
In two other matches, we went behind after scoring first, both of which we drew 2-2 (Leeds at home & Sunderland at home).
Only once did we retake the lead after our opponent equalised, and that was Burton Away
Couldn’t hold the lead
Only winning just over half of the matches that we took the lead, tells me that we were not very good at seeing games out, and also that we weren’t finishing teams off once we took the lead.
Possible reasons I see for this:
Lack of Leadership
Lack of concentration
lack of fitness
lack of desire
We conceded first 25 times:
Of these matches:
We lost 21
We drew 4,
Worst of all, we never won after conceding the first goal.
Only once did we even take the lead after conceding first, (in the 3-3 draw at home to Derby).
In two matches we equalised, but still lost (Norwich at home and Burton at home).
We went 2-0 down an incredible 16 times, (one of these we drew 2-2 away to Bolton) and 3 times we got one back,
5 of those 16 times that we went 2-0 down, we went on to lose 3-0 (at Norwich we did at least fight back to 3-2),
One of those 5 times, we went on to lose 4-0 (I think this match is etched into our memory).
This suggest to me a lack of fight in the players
Possible reasons I see for this:
Lack of belief we would get back into the game
lack of intensity and taking the game to the opposition
Lack of Leadership ie rousing the players once we went behind
The first time we conceded 3 was Derby Home – which was our 33rd match, but 7 times in our last 14 games we conceded 3 goals
I’m not really sure what to make of this, but something does seem to have changed at this point.
Here is what period of the match we scored or conceded in
Goals scored Goals conceded
1st 15 7 / 1st 15 6
2nd 15 7 / 2nd 15 12
3rd 15 5 / 3rd 15 10
4th 15 8 / 4th 15 11
5th 15 9 / 5th 15 13
6th 15 12 / 6th 15 18
17 matches we didn’t score We had 8 Clean sheets
So only 19 of our goals came in the first half, whist as many as 12 came in the last 15 minutes. Compare this to conceding 28 goals in the first half, and 18 in the last 15, this says to me that in most cases, by the time we scored those late goals it was too late to get anything from the match.
Possible reasons:
Starting matches too slow and not taking the game to the opposition from the start.
Now, a look at the team in more detail
Firstly, we only had 7 clean sheets in the whole season, which is pretty poor.
Saves Success Rate:
Manone 68.6%
Jaakola 60.7%
Neither of which are particularly outstanding, conceding roughly 1 goal every 3 shots
Possible reasons:
We lacked a top class keeper
The keepers weren’t confident enough
Too much pressure on the keepers by us not scoring enough at the other end
Clearances per 90 minutes
Jaakola 2
Manone 1.19
This shows me that the keepers were not clearing ball enough, and we were keeping hold of it around our area too much
Possible Reasons:
Style of play
Keepers making poor decisions
Percentage of passes that were successful:
Manone 62.2
Jaakola 59
Considering that we were not clearing the ball enough, giving ball away at the back this much, was a big problem
Possible Reasons:
Poor choice of passes
Passing too short under pressure
Keepers were not comfortable playing out from the back
Catches per 90 minutes:
Manone 0.56
Jaakola 0.4
Shows that the keepers were only catching the ball once every 2 matches
Possible reasons:
Keepers were not commanding their area enough, and leaving it to the defence to clear the ball
Keepers were not comfortable coming out to catch the ball
Keepers were told not come out to catch the ball
Percentage of passes that were successful:
Manone 35.8
Jaakola 34.9
Shows that giving away when kicked long
Possible reasons:
Poor kicking ability from the keepers
Players were not forward enough to receive it
As for the defence
Clearances per 90 minutes
Moore 7.35
Ilori 6.00
McShane 5.04
Blackett 3.57
Gunter 3.38
Holmes 3
Evans 2.36
Edwards 1.89
Richards 1.76
Van Den Berg 1.71
Obita 0
I read from this that Blackett, Gunter, and Richards were not clearing ball enough, and we were keeping hold of it around our area too much and also not enough support from Van Den Berg.
Possible reasons:
Style of play
Players making poor decisions
Blocks per 90 minutes
Moore 1.11
Ilori 0.78
McShane 0.67
Edwards 0.52
Van Den Berg 0.51
Gunter 0.48
Richards 0.47
Blackett 0.35
Evans 0.21
Holmes 0
Obita 0
I read from this that Illori, McShane, Gunter, Richards and Blackett were not getting in enough blocks, and not enough support from Evans.
Possible reasons:
Lack of effort from the players to put their bodies between the ball and goal.
Percentage of Tackles that were successful
Holmes 100
Ilori 76.7
Gunter 70.2
McShane 66.7
Moore 65.0
Blackett 62.5
Van Den Berg 54.8
Richards 54.2
Evans 43.8
Edwards 44.2
Obita 0
Shows that the tackling by Moore, Blackett, Van Den Berg, Richards, Evans and Edwards was not good enough (all missing at least 1 tackle out of, and in the case of Edwards at least half of their tackles).
Possible reasons:
Lack of commitment in their tackles
Not closing down opposing players enough
Interceptions per 90 (2.0)
Holmes 8
Blackett 3.15
Richards 2.58
Van Den Berg 2.31
Ilori 2.06
Evans 1.95
Moore 1.93
Edwards 1.48
Gunter 0.8
McShane 0.67
Obita 0
So, only making an interception at an average of every 45 minutes, Evans, Moore, Edwards, Gunter and McShane were not getting the ball enough.
Possible reasons:
Lack of effort
The players were not reading the play well enough.
Number of Passes per 90 minutes/Successful passes per 90 minutes/Percentage of passes that were successful
McShane 66.1/ 55.79/ 84.4
Richards 35.6/ 29.98/ 84.2
Obita 56.4/ 47.26/ 83.8
Van Den Berg 55/ 45.93 / 83.5
Moore 51.5/ 42.44/ 82.4
Ilori 53.4/ 45.68/ 81.0
Edwards 34.8/ 27.35 / 78.6
Blackett 43.3/ 33.95/ 78.4
Evans 43.9 / 31.7/ 72.2
Gunter 39.1 / 28.00/ 71.6
Holmes 33/ 20 / 60.6
Edwards, Blackett, Evans and Gunter were all giving the ball at least once every 5 passes.
missed passes per 90 minutes
Richards 5.62
Edwards 7.45
Ilori 7.72
Moore 9.06
Van Den Berg 9.07
Obita 9.14
Blackett 9.35
McShane 10.31
Gunter 11.1
Evans 12.2
Holmes 13
Moore, Blackett, Evans, Gunter and McShane were all giving the ball away in defence too much.
Percentage of passes that were successful in Own Half/Opposing Half
Van Den Berg 92.6 / 73.9
McShane 91.9 / 71.1
Moore 91.2/ 60.2
Ilori 87.5/ 68.3
Evans 87.1/ 58.6
Gunter 86.3/ 57.3
Richards 84.9/ 78.4
Obita 84.6/ 68.8
Edwards 84.5/ 72.2
Blackett 83.1/ 71.4
Holmes 72/ 25
Richards, Edwards and Blackett were all giving the ball away at least once every 7 passes in our own half
Possible reasons (for all three of the above):
The players were making the wrong passes
The player’s concentration was not good enough
The players were not adept enough at passing the ball
Percentage of long passes that were succesful
McShane 62.2
Edwards 52.9
Ilori 51.9
Richards 50
Van Den Berg 49
Blackett 48.5
Moore 43.4
Evans 42
Gunter 39.5
Holmes 33.3
Obita 16.7
Van Den Berg, Blackett, Moore, Evans and Gunter were all giving away at least half of their passes when passing long.
Possible reasons:
The players were making the wrong passes
The players receiving the ball were not getting to the ball quick enough.
Percentage of passes that were Forward/Sideways/Backwards
Holmes 63.6/ 30.4/ 6.1
Gunter 47.7/ 34.5/ 17.8
Ilori 45.5/ 47.7/ 6.8
Blackett 38.9/ 41.1/ 20
McShane 37.1/ 51.8/ 11.1
Richards 34.7/ 39.9/ 25.5
Moore 34.7/ 55.7/ 9.7
Obita 32.4/ 40.5/ 27
Team 41.83/ 42.7/ 15.5
Edwards 32.9/ 47.5/ 19.6
Evans 34.6/ 50.5/ 15
Van Den Berg 36/ 53.3/ 10.7
Only Gunter and Illori were passing the ball forwards enough. Meaning we were not attacking anywhere near enough
Only Gunter and Richards were not passing Sideways too much. Meaning we were not attacking anywhere near enough
Only Illori, McShane and Moore not passing backwards too much, meaning everyone else was keeping the ball around our goal too much.
Possible reasons:
Players making poor decisions on passes
Stam’s tactics
The players did not understand what Stam wanted them to do
And at the other end of the pitch:
Goals/games per Goal (ie 1 goal every x amount of games)
Bodvarson 7/ 2.8
Smith 1/ 3.53
Barrow 10/ 3.72
Kelly 5/ 5.34
Kermogant 2/ 7.26
Swift 2/ 8.15
Edwards 3/ 8.99
Aluko 3/ 12.51
Bacuna 1/ 30.20
Mendes 0/ n/a
Popa 0/ n/a
Clement 0/ n/a
Mcleary 0/ n/a
At one goal every 3 and a half games, only Barrow scored regularly enough (for a midfielder)
Possible reasons:
Lack of a top striker
Strikers were not getting enough service from midfield
Shots/Percentage of shots that were goals
Barrow 40/ 25.00
Edwards 13/ 23.08
Smith 5/ 20.00
Kelly 27/ 18.52
Bodvarson 39/ 17.95
Swift 21/ 9.52
Kermogant 26/ 7.69
Aluko 50/ 6.00
Bacuna 26/ 3.85
Popa 5/ 0
Clement 5/ 0
Mcleary 5/ 0
Mendes 0/ 0
With one shot in every four finding the net, only Barrow has a reasonable strike rate (again, for a midfielder)
Possible reasons:
Lack of a top striker
Number of shots per game (2)
Bodvarson 1.99
Kermogant 1.79
Popa 1.6
Smith 1.42
Aluko 1.33
Swift 1.29
Barrow 1.08
Kelly 1.01
Bacuna 0.86
Mcleary 0.55
Edwards 0.48
Clement 0.42
Mendes 0
With less than 2 shots per game, strikers Bodvarson, Kermogant, Smith and Mendes were not taking enough shots per game, and with less than one shot per game, midfielders Bacuna, Mcleary, Edwards and Clement were not having enough shots either.
Possible reasons:
Lack of a top striker
The Strikers were not getting enough service from midfield
Percentage of Shots on Target (Ratio 55)
Clement 60.00
Kelly 55.56
Barrow 55.00
Swift 52.38
Bodvarson 46.15
Aluko 44.00
Smith 40.00
Edwards 38.46
Kermogant 30.77
Bacuna 26.92
Mcleary 20.00
Mendes 0
At less than half of their shots on target, Bodvarson, Aluko, Smith, Edwards, Kermogant, Bacuna, Mcleary, Mendes all had too many of their shots testing the keeper
Possible reasons
Lack of top striker
Number of Passes per 90/Successful passes per 90/percentage of passes that were successful/ percentage of passes that were successful in the opposition half
Swift 50.9/ 41.08/ 80.7/ 75.2
Clement 39.8/ 31.32/ 78.7/ 72.7
Edwards 34.8/ 27.35/ 78.6/ 72.2
Bacuna 44.3/ 35.35/ 79.8/ 71.5
Kelly 56.1/ 46.9/ 83.6/ 70.8
Aluko 36.3/ 30.2/ 83.2/ 70.4
Mendes 20.5/ 15.81/ 77.1/ 69.2
Mcleary 25.7/ 19.63/ 76.4/ 62.8
Smith 12.7 / 9.03/ 71.1/ 60.9
Barrow 21.3/ 14.97/ 70.3/ 60.3
Bodvarson 22.1/ 13.68/ 61.9/ 55.0
Kermogant 27.5/ 14.52/ 52.8/ 42.5
Kelly, Aluko, Mcleary, Barrow Bodvarson, Kermogant were all giving the ball away too much in the opposition half and losing opportunities to attack the goal
Possible reasons:
Poor choice of pass
Players were unable to make a successful pass when they were pressured by the opposition’s defence
Percentage of passes forward/sideways/backwards
Bacuna 36.3/ 47.3/ 16.4
Edwards 32.9/ 47.5/ 19.6
Bodvarson 32.3/ 39/ 28.6
Kelly 31.8/ 50.8/ 17.4
Mcleary 31.8/ 41.2/ 27
Swift 28.7/ 50.4/ 21
Clement 26.7/ 46.7/ 26.5
Barrow 26.4/ 46.9/ 26.7
Aluko 26.1/ 48.8/ 25.1
Mendes 17.1/ 31.4/ 51.4
Smith 15.6/ 31.1/ 53.3
Only Bodvarsson was passing the ball forwards enough
Only Bodvarsson was not passing the ball too sideways too much
Only Bodvarsson was not passing the ball backwards too much.
Meaning that most times we got an opportunity to attack it was wasted, by going backwards or sideways
Possible reasons:
Poor decisions
Poor tactics
The players did not understand the tactics
The players had a lack of confidence in going forward
Lastly, a look at whether the strikers were getting enough service:
Assists
Aluko 4
Barrow 4
Kelly 3
Kermogant 2
Clement 2
Mendes 1
Bacuna 1
Bodvarson 1
Smith 0
Popa 0
I think it’s safe to say that none of these were good enough, showing that we were not creating enough chances.
Possible reasons:
Our players were not getting forward enough
A lack of creativity from the midfielders
Key Passes/Key Passes per 90 minutes
Obita 2/ 3.05
Kelly 48/ 1.80
McCleary 14/ 1.55
Swift 22/ 1.35
Aluko 43/ 1.15
Barrow 41/ 1.10
Clement 12/ 1.01
Blackett 16/ 1.00
Bacuna 23/ 0.76
Gunter 31/ 0.68
Van Den Berg 17/ 0.59
Edwards 12/ 0.44
Popa 1/ 0.32
Evans 3/ 0.31
Richards 2/ 0.23
At less than 2 key passes per match, none of the midfield and the wing/full backs not creating enough chances
Crosses per 90 (8)
Obita 10.68
Popa 2.88
Barrow 2.80
Gunter 2.44
McCleary 2.09
Blackett 1.51
Richards 1.29
Bacuna 1.29
Aluko 1.84
At less than 3 crosses per game, there was nowhere near enough crosses into the box by anyone
Possible reasons (for both of the above):
Our players were not getting forward enough
A lack of creativity from the midfielders and wing/full backs
Percentage of crosses that were successful
Blackett 40.00
Obita 28.57
Bacuna 23.08
Gunter 21.43
Barrow 17.31
Aluko 15.94
McCleary 11.76
Popa 11.11
Richards 9.09
Successful Crosses per 90 minutes
Obita 3.05
Blackett 0.60
Gunter 0.52
Barrow 0.48
McCleary 0.44
Popa 0.32
Bacuna 0.30
Aluko 0.29
Richards 0.12
Considering that we had very few crosses made, there were certainly not enough of those crosses finding our players in the box meaning that no-one even made an average of 1 successful cross per game
Possible reasons:
Not enough crosses attempted
A lack of crossing ability from the midfielders and wing/full backs
Number of Passes per 90/Successful passes per 90/percentage of passes that were successful/ percentage of passes that were successful in the opposition half
Richards 35.6/ 29.98/ 84.2/ 78.4
Swift 50.9/ 41.08/ 80.7/ 75.2
Van Den Berg 55/ 45.93/ 83.5/ 73.9
Clement 39.8/ 31.32/ 78.7/ 72.7
Edwards 34.8/ 27.35/ 78.6/ 72.2
Bacuna 44.3/ 35.35/ 79.8/ 71.5
Blackett 43.3/ 33.95/ 78.4/ 71.4
Kelly 56.1/ 46.9/ 83.6/ 70.8
Aluko 36.3/ 30.2 8/ 3.2/ 70.4
Obita 56.4/ 47.26/ 83.8/ 68.8
McCleary 25.7/ 19.63/ 76.4/ 62.8
Popa 51/ 37.18/ 72.9/ 61.9
Barrow 21.3/ 14.97/ 70.3/ 60.3
Evans 43.9 / 31.7/ 72.2/ 58.6
Gunter 39.1/ 28.00 71.6/ 57.3
Blackett, Kelly, Aluko, McCleary, Popa, Barrow, Evans and Gunter were all giving ball away too much in the opposition half, leading to us not getting enough attacks on goal
Possible reasons
Poor choices of pass
The players were not making a successful passes when pressured by the opposition
Percentage of passes forward/sideways/backwards
Gunter 47.7/ 34.5/ 17.8
Blackett 38.9/ 41.1/ 20
Bacuna 36.3/ 47.3/ 16.4
Van Den Berg 36/ 53.3/ 10.7
Obita 32.4/ 40.5/ 27
Kelly 31.8/ 50.8/ 17.4
McCleary 31.8/ 41.2/ 27
Richards 34.7/ 39.9/ 25.5
Evans 34.6/ 50.5/ 15
Edwards 32.9/ 47.5/ 19.6
Popa 30/ 28.6/ 41.4
Swift 28.7/ 50.4/ 21
Clement 26.7/ 46.7/ 26.5
Barrow 26.4/ 46.9/ 26.7
Aluko 26.1/ 48.8/ 25.1
Only Gunter was passing forwards enough.
Only Gunter Richards and Popa were not passing sideways too much.
Only Van Den Berg and Evans were not passing backwards too much
Show that we were not getting the ball up to the strikers enough, but instead were going back to the defence
Possible reasons:
Poor decisions
Poor tactics
The players did not understand Stam’s tactics
A lack of confidence in the players going forward
So to summarise, what I see our problems to have been were:
A lack of ability to see out games, and a lack of ability to come from behind, caused by a lack of intensity and Leadership. As for the Leadership, I think that this can't be underestimated, don't get me wrong, I like Gunter, and I think at times he comes in for a lot of unfair critisim, but I don't believe that he is the best choice as captain, and I think that we missed McShane a lot in this respect.
A lack of an outstanding Keeper as a succssor to Al Habsi
A poor choice of passes in keeping the ball too much at the back, and further to this giving it away at the back by the keepers, Moore, Blackett, Evans, Gunter, Holmes, McShane were all giving the ball away in defence too much.
A lack of effort and commitment in defence in getting in blocks and tackles
A huge lack of chances created by the midfield
A lack of a top striker
Too many team changes - some forced by injuries, some Unnecessary
Fitness of the players caused by a poor pre-season and maybe Stam's training methods.
And as a side note, from these stats I also think that Holmes was brought into the team too early, and unfortunatlry was not yet ready for first team football.
So there you have my opinions on our season, and most, if not all are pretty much what seemed to be glaringly obvious, but I wanted to see how much basis these actually had.
Of course, these do not tell the whole story, as there are other factors at play, but I have done my best with the information that I had,
Last edited by
Royal1988 on 15 May 2018 07:12, edited 1 time in total.