Scoring first vs conceding first

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genome
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Scoring first vs conceding first

by genome » 04 Dec 2017 17:23

I'm bored this afternoon, so I decided to tot up the stats for when we've scored first vs when we've conceded first in all competitions over Stam's entire Reading career. I imagine this is something that most Reading fans are generally aware of, but it's quite interesting to see it in black & white stats. It's a bit alarming...

Scoring first: P41 W36 D3 L2 - PPG 2.70 - 124 point season* :shock: :lol:
Conceding first: P31 W2 D7 L22 - PPG 0.42 - 19 point season*
0-0 Draws: 5

That's just two losses in Stam's entire tenure when we've got the first goal. That was 3-2 away to Derby last season, and 2-1 away to Millwall this season. That's massive. Conversely, our record is awful when we concede first, with only 2 wins in 31 games, which was 3-2 away to Bristol City, and 2-1 at home to Rotherham, both last season.

What's the reason for this? It can't be as simple as us just keeping the ball when we score first, right? Or is it? :? Is losing when we concede down to the mentality of the players, or an inherent flaw in Stam's tactics?

* admittedly it's a bit off to work out PPG and an average point season while including cup games, so take them with a pinch of salt. But our cup games have included 3 Premier League sides, 2 Championship sides, 2 League One sides, and 1 League Two side, so it's an even spread. Our cup record is fairly even too (P8 W4 D1 L3)

NB - I've counted the Huddersfield and MK Dons results as draws.

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by Hound » 04 Dec 2017 18:38

I don’t know the answer but it’s pretty mental

Know we only didn’t win when scoring first vs Fulham and Derby last year, and was aware that basically Carried on til this year

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by leon » 05 Dec 2017 01:15

If we didn’t play any recognised strikers up front and constantly swapped the team we’d do better.

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by BR0B0T » 05 Dec 2017 02:21

genome wrote:What's the reason for this? It can't be as simple as us just keeping the ball when we score first, right? Or is it? :? Is losing when we concede down to the mentality of the players, or an inherent flaw in Stam's tactics?


what's the average throughout the football league, (then playoff placed teams etc...is it really that different)

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genome
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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by genome » 05 Dec 2017 10:16

leon wrote:If we didn’t play any recognised strikers up front and constantly swapped the team we’d do better.


Has Ian really got you this rattled?


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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by leon » 05 Dec 2017 11:48

genome wrote:
leon wrote:If we didn’t play any recognised strikers up front and constantly swapped the team we’d do better.


Has Ian really got you this rattled?


Yeah. It’s keeping me up at night. And it’s affecting my relationship with my wife and children.

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by WAZZOCK » 05 Dec 2017 13:45

genome wrote:
leon wrote:If we didn’t play any recognised strikers up front and constantly swapped the team we’d do better.


Has Ian really got you this rattled?


He’s in a bad way genome, be nice to him.

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by Tony Le Mesmer » 05 Dec 2017 15:10

I think you'd be surprised just how biased the stats are towards the team scoring 1st in ANY game

the same goes for corners. Fans get excited when their team gets one. The odds on actually scoring from a corner are 1.7%, or thereabouts.

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by Snowflake Royal » 05 Dec 2017 18:27

It makes it all the more baffling that our kick off routine is to go all the way back and give the CBs a few early touches.

If we spent the first 5 - 10 minutes going hell for leather and then played 15 minutes of keep ball we could already be promoted* with those sorts of point conversion stats.





*obvious hyperbole is obvious


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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by Marino13 » 05 Dec 2017 18:32

genome wrote:I'm bored this afternoon, so I decided to tot up the stats for when we've scored first vs when we've conceded first in all competitions over Stam's entire Reading career. I imagine this is something that most Reading fans are generally aware of, but it's quite interesting to see it in black & white stats. It's a bit alarming...

Scoring first: P41 W36 D3 L2 - PPG 2.70 - 124 point season* :shock: :lol:
Conceding first: P31 W2 D7 L22 - PPG 0.42 - 19 point season*
0-0 Draws: 5

That's just two losses in Stam's entire tenure when we've got the first goal. That was 3-2 away to Derby last season, and 2-1 away to Millwall this season. That's massive. Conversely, our record is awful when we concede first, with only 2 wins in 31 games, which was 3-2 away to Bristol City, and 2-1 at home to Rotherham, both last season.

What's the reason for this? It can't be as simple as us just keeping the ball when we score first, right? Or is it? :? Is losing when we concede down to the mentality of the players, or an inherent flaw in Stam's tactics?

* admittedly it's a bit off to work out PPG and an average point season while including cup games, so take them with a pinch of salt. But our cup games have included 3 Premier League sides, 2 Championship sides, 2 League One sides, and 1 League Two side, so it's an even spread. Our cup record is fairly even too (P8 W4 D1 L3)

NB - I've counted the Huddersfield and MK Dons results as draws.


by jove, i think you need to get out a little more.

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by TiagoIlori » 05 Dec 2017 18:47

We don’t react well enough to being a goal down, simple as. We need to be more direct and play effective possession football, how can we expect to beat the likes of wolves and Bristol City who were happy to sit back at points when we keep obsessing over possession? We panic and lose the ball from to minimal pressure of the opponents, which makes me think we’d suit a bit more of a direct game, allowing Aluko, McCleary and Barrow who love running at the opponent actually doing so more often. I also think the lack of a class striker is the problem, Kermorgant’s flicks are brilliant but I’d rather have a younger striker of a similar build that has more pace and is a consistent goal scorer. This type of striker isn’t always cheap noted but there are plenty of strikers that we could get hold of for peanuts, Kodjia cost Bristol City just £2m after all....

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by genome » 05 Dec 2017 18:52

Marino13 wrote:
genome wrote:I'm bored this afternoon, so I decided to tot up the stats for when we've scored first vs when we've conceded first in all competitions over Stam's entire Reading career. I imagine this is something that most Reading fans are generally aware of, but it's quite interesting to see it in black & white stats. It's a bit alarming...

Scoring first: P41 W36 D3 L2 - PPG 2.70 - 124 point season* :shock: :lol:
Conceding first: P31 W2 D7 L22 - PPG 0.42 - 19 point season*
0-0 Draws: 5

That's just two losses in Stam's entire tenure when we've got the first goal. That was 3-2 away to Derby last season, and 2-1 away to Millwall this season. That's massive. Conversely, our record is awful when we concede first, with only 2 wins in 31 games, which was 3-2 away to Bristol City, and 2-1 at home to Rotherham, both last season.

What's the reason for this? It can't be as simple as us just keeping the ball when we score first, right? Or is it? :? Is losing when we concede down to the mentality of the players, or an inherent flaw in Stam's tactics?

* admittedly it's a bit off to work out PPG and an average point season while including cup games, so take them with a pinch of salt. But our cup games have included 3 Premier League sides, 2 Championship sides, 2 League One sides, and 1 League Two side, so it's an even spread. Our cup record is fairly even too (P8 W4 D1 L3)

NB - I've counted the Huddersfield and MK Dons results as draws.


by jove, i think you need to get out a little more.


Shall I look up Chelsea's for you?

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by Sutekh » 06 Dec 2017 09:40

As mentioned, be good to see the same stats for the same period for the other Championship clubs. Reckon it may not be that uncommon to see several sides with that sort of record.


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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by Snowflake Royal » 06 Dec 2017 22:59

Sutekh wrote:As mentioned, be good to see the same stats for the same period for the other Championship clubs. Reckon it may not be that uncommon to see several sides with that sort of record.


I suspect ours is skewed further than normal, but the general trend is present for almost everyone.

Obviously you'd expect teams at the bottom to concede first and lose a lot, and those at the top to score first and win a lot.

Can't be arsed to do the stats.

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by BR0B0T » 07 Dec 2017 12:35

Snowflake Royal wrote:
Sutekh wrote:As mentioned, be good to see the same stats for the same period for the other Championship clubs. Reckon it may not be that uncommon to see several sides with that sort of record.


I suspect ours is skewed further than normal, but the general trend is present for almost everyone.

Obviously you'd expect teams at the bottom to concede first and lose a lot, and those at the top to score first and win a lot.

Can't be arsed to do the stats.


If you/someone can direct me to a data source with the necessary goal times

in an easy as possible format please...i'll take a look

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by Snowflake Royal » 07 Dec 2017 16:22

BR0B0T wrote:
Snowflake Royal wrote:
Sutekh wrote:As mentioned, be good to see the same stats for the same period for the other Championship clubs. Reckon it may not be that uncommon to see several sides with that sort of record.


I suspect ours is skewed further than normal, but the general trend is present for almost everyone.

Obviously you'd expect teams at the bottom to concede first and lose a lot, and those at the top to score first and win a lot.

Can't be arsed to do the stats.


If you/someone can direct me to a data source with the necessary goal times

in an easy as possible format please...i'll take a look

Format is going to be the problem.

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by BR0B0T » 07 Dec 2017 16:38

Snowflake Royal wrote:
BR0B0T wrote:
Snowflake Royal wrote:
I suspect ours is skewed further than normal, but the general trend is present for almost everyone.

Obviously you'd expect teams at the bottom to concede first and lose a lot, and those at the top to score first and win a lot.

Can't be arsed to do the stats.


If you/someone can direct me to a data source with the necessary goal times

in an easy as possible format please...i'll take a look

Format is going to be the problem.


nah I can scrape it so should be ok

will have a little look

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genome
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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by genome » 07 Dec 2017 16:42

Best thing I can think of is navig8ing to each individual team's results list on BBC Sport, and clicking "Show Scorers" and just making notes

E.G on Aston Villa's page http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tea ... s-fixtures - "Show Scorers" in the top right and scrolling back through the months

Definition of ballache though

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by muirinho » 07 Dec 2017 16:48

genome wrote:Best thing I can think of is navig8ing to each individual team's results list on BBC Sport, and clicking "Show Scorers" and just making notes

E.G on Aston Villa's page http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tea ... s-fixtures - "Show Scorers" in the top right and scrolling back through the months

Definition of ballache though


Think soccerbase or similar might be a bit quicker. Here's Bristol City's results page for instance. Click on i to expand each result and you get times and scorers. Less to-ing and for-ing

http://www.soccerbase.com/teams/team.sd ... bs=results

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Re: Scoring first vs conceding first

by genome » 07 Dec 2017 16:52

muirinho wrote:
genome wrote:Best thing I can think of is navig8ing to each individual team's results list on BBC Sport, and clicking "Show Scorers" and just making notes

E.G on Aston Villa's page http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tea ... s-fixtures - "Show Scorers" in the top right and scrolling back through the months

Definition of ballache though


Think soccerbase or similar might be a bit quicker. Here's Bristol City's results page for instance. Click on i to expand each result and you get times and scorers. Less to-ing and for-ing

http://www.soccerbase.com/teams/team.sd ... bs=results


Yeah but you have to do it for each match, whereas the BBC one will expand every match in a given month with one click, I figure overall that will be faster.

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