Teams to be Relegated 18-19

Who goes? You decide! (choose 3)

Birmingham
13
5%
Bolton
18
6%
Hull
52
19%
Ipswich
45
16%
Millwall
12
4%
Preston
22
8%
Queens Park Rangers
10
4%
Reading
51
18%
Rotherham
57
20%
 
Total votes: 280
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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Snowflake Royal » 12 Oct 2018 17:56

Kulshaw72RFC wrote:
Snowflake Royal wrote:
fred sharpes nose wrote:Last season after 10 games the bottom 7 included Brentford (and us) after 46 games swap out Brentford for Hull. So after 10 games 6 out of 7 were still there at season end. Eventually the trap door will open for us if we stay mired at this level. Luck may desert us this year. And to be clear - we are in a relegation struggle almost from day 1 of the season, none of this we're a talented squad too good to go down crap.

Yep. Ten games is the point the table definitely has meaning. If at least two of the current bottom six don't go down come the end of the season it'll be a surprise.


Who do you think will go down, Snowy?

I can't choose between Hull because they were so terrible against us (but it's only one game), perennial strugglers Rotherham, financial dopers QPR, hungover Millwall, or possibly points deducted Bolton and Birmingham to go down with us and Ipswich. I think I went for Millwall in the poll.

Brain Traysers
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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Brain Traysers » 12 Oct 2018 18:21

Denver Royal wrote:Barrow has really regressed under Clement (so has Kelly).

Barrow is struggling to get in the team. It’s been huge, because we’re talking about an offensive player, who was our best player(?), player of the season, and who could command a big fee if we sold.

If Clement is as good as some say, he needs to get Barrow back on track, and even improve him over what he was, for several reasons.


I'm not sure how much Clement can be blamed - it looks like a genuine mean reversion to me. Last season Barrow outperformed his xG - he had around 0.25 actual goals per 90 vs 0.16 xG per 90; he scored around 50% more goals than he 'should' have and ranked in the top 10% in the league for doing so. A subsequent drop off is natural, but when that drop off is your main/only attacking threat from the previous season that's doubly bad.

If anything, we are lucky Bod has taken over the role as goal-scoring overachiever, although again don't expect that to last!

By the same token Kelly is an odd one. I'm really not sure where his level is, and its quite possibly not in the Championship. He was playing in the National League South only 2 and a half years ago, relatively late as a 20 year old - subsequently stepping up 4 leagues is a huge jump and he was a solid rotation performer as we finished third. If we were being honest he was realistically behind Williams and Swift who both had very good seasons, but also possibly Evans (who played in 9 more games than him, albeit often in the deeper role usually occupied by JvdB). As a local academy lad he would always be viewed with RTGs on, and perhaps we fooled ourselves into thinking he was a 21 years old top half Championship CM.

Its only natural that when you lose (i) the engine of Williams (who I assert was vitally important in 2016/17 by covering the space left by our full backs when they bombed forward - a huge source of attacking threat for us that season), (ii) the fitness/form of Swift, and (iii) the competence of JvdB and then end up playing more games in a weaker team overall (+ Kermorgant finished, Obita injured) you will get 'found out' a bit more.

At this stage (still only 22, about to turn 23) I think its probably more likely he is a good league 1 player than a championship player - that's not to say with more experience and crucially a confidence boosting run of form he couldn't eventually turn out to be the player we all wrongly remember from 2016/17.

Hiram K Hackenbacker
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Posts: 325
Joined: 29 May 2008 08:56
Location: Blackpool

Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Hiram K Hackenbacker » 13 Oct 2018 23:35

Brain Traysers wrote:
Denver Royal wrote:Barrow has really regressed under Clement (so has Kelly).

Barrow is struggling to get in the team. It’s been huge, because we’re talking about an offensive player, who was our best player(?), player of the season, and who could command a big fee if we sold.

If Clement is as good as some say, he needs to get Barrow back on track, and even improve him over what he was, for several reasons.


I'm not sure how much Clement can be blamed - it looks like a genuine mean reversion to me. Last season Barrow outperformed his xG - he had around 0.25 actual goals per 90 vs 0.16 xG per 90; he scored around 50% more goals than he 'should' have and ranked in the top 10% in the league for doing so. A subsequent drop off is natural, but when that drop off is your main/only attacking threat from the previous season that's doubly bad.

If anything, we are lucky Bod has taken over the role as goal-scoring overachiever, although again don't expect that to last!

By the same token Kelly is an odd one. I'm really not sure where his level is, and its quite possibly not in the Championship. He was playing in the National League South only 2 and a half years ago, relatively late as a 20 year old - subsequently stepping up 4 leagues is a huge jump and he was a solid rotation performer as we finished third. If we were being honest he was realistically behind Williams and Swift who both had very good seasons, but also possibly Evans (who played in 9 more games than him, albeit often in the deeper role usually occupied by JvdB). As a local academy lad he would always be viewed with RTGs on, and perhaps we fooled ourselves into thinking he was a 21 years old top half Championship CM.

Its only natural that when you lose (i) the engine of Williams (who I assert was vitally important in 2016/17 by covering the space left by our full backs when they bombed forward - a huge source of attacking threat for us that season), (ii) the fitness/form of Swift, and (iii) the competence of JvdB and then end up playing more games in a weaker team overall (+ Kermorgant finished, Obita injured) you will get 'found out' a bit more.

At this stage (still only 22, about to turn 23) I think its probably more likely he is a good league 1 player than a championship player - that's not to say with more experience and crucially a confidence boosting run of form he couldn't eventually turn out to be the player we all wrongly remember from 2016/17.

I agree

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Green
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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by Green » 16 Oct 2018 14:26

stealthpapes wrote:I hear Fleetwood is delightful this time of year.

Looks like a Northern Isle of Sheppey.

glass half full
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Re: Teams to be Relegated 18-19

by glass half full » 19 Oct 2018 14:37

Hull, Rotherham, Preston. (No Reading. I am 'Glass Half Full!)


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