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by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 23:20
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

Ian Royal Corners, whilst relatively easily defended, are still a free kick into the box and close surrounding area, which is where the vast majority of goals are scored from.


and last season we scored one every 77 corners

what exactly is your point?
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 23:19
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

Corners, whilst relatively easily defended, are still a free kick into the box and close surrounding area, which is where the vast majority of goals are scored from. It is a sign of pressure on the opposition goal, because to get one, you almost have to have been causing a defence problems. Danger ...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 23:18
Forum: The Team
Topic: Loanwatch: Season 2010-2011
Replies: 146
Views: 31227

Re: Loanwatch: Season 2010-2011

I know, Wendy. They seem to slag off the majority of players for not being slightly better than Messi. Madjeski, Coppell, Rodgers, Kebe, Long, Cummings, McAnuff, Rasiak, Griffin, Harte, Bikey, Pearce, Mills, Howard, Steve Hunt, Matejovsky, Cisse, Hannheman, Fedders, Williams, Kelly, and surely other...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 23:10
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

What your science and stats is failing to recognise is why you get excited. It's not because you expect something to happen but because you want something to happen and actually want the excitement and euphoria of the expectation. It's like buying a lottery ticket and planning how you'd spend the £...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 23:08
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

What your science and stats is failing to recognise is why you get excited. It's not because you expect something to happen but because you want something to happen and actually want the excitement and euphoria of the expectation. It's like buying a lottery ticket and planning how you'd spend the £...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 23:04
Forum: The Team
Topic: New contract for Hamer
Replies: 18
Views: 4895

Re: New contract for Hamer

It's a difficult choice. Really you're second-choice would be the guy out on loan because that way he is gaining experience. It would need to be your THIRD choice on the bench. There's a dodgy moment if the Number 1 keeper gets injured in a game and the No 3 has to play 20- minutes or whatever... bu...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 23:00
Forum: The Team
Topic: Harte Signs
Replies: 842
Views: 65166

Re: Harte Signs

No more obstinate than someone who goes out of their way to avoid considering the non appearance of Marcus Williams in the team as an equally valid factor in making us a better side. That is such a dumb argument! (a) I think Harte has improved the side. versus (b) I think getting rid of Williams ha...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 22:57
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

Err no, you just supported Snowballs hypothesis that when you watch games you aren't thinking clearly, because you still get excited despite the odds. Believe it or not he's actually asking you to think about why you get excited and how that might colour your perceptions of what you see on the day....
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 22:55
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

Ian, that's exactly his point. You know logically nothing is likely to come of it, but you aren't thinking logically in the heat of the moment so you get excited anyway. And certainly if I was to go by my gut instinct I'd have said we scored more corners than we actually do. THANK-you I do not beli...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 22:53
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

Well from my experience of games over the last 15 years, you'd have to be a bit of an idiot to expect much from a corner. It's like watching Paul Brayson go one on one with the keeper. You know it's going to result in nothing, but it doesn't stop you shouting and getting to your feet in excitement....
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 19:08
Forum: The Team
Topic: Harte Signs
Replies: 842
Views: 65166

Re: Harte Signs

Who said they don't mean something ? I think the ascertation is that they don't prove anything, especially with the way snowball throws them out. Of COURSE they don't PROVE a Harte-Effect. Where have I ever said they do? They are supportive evidence, suggestive evidence, circumstantial evidence. Th...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 19:05
Forum: The Team
Topic: Harte Signs
Replies: 842
Views: 65166

Re: Harte Signs

of course the stats mean something. and i never though SB was offering them up as a definitive answer to all questions, just as a point fo interest, and to challenge certain tightly held preconceptions on this list PRECISELY! I have subjective opinions, intuitions and gut-feelings like the next fan...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 19:01
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

My example is one of a human being using human experience and personal knowledge to influence a individual choice. That doesn't mean it's wrong, it means that person is probably weighing up the statistical probabilty of an outcome with the tangible, known and comparable references from source infor...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 17:08
Forum: The Team
Topic: New contract for Hamer
Replies: 18
Views: 4895

Re: New contract for Hamer

So Hamer got an award for his keeping for Crawley then kept 20 clean sheets last season for Brentford And this season for Brentford he's kept 50% clean sheets and only let in a single goal for the other games 1-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-1 2-1 Of course the defence has a say in clean-sheets, but Hamer seems to...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 16:52
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

Stranded


Same as, most people round where I sit expect very little from corners from bitter experience. It's always a pleasant surprise when we score from one.[/quote]


Do they say, "Dammit, a corner. Waste of time."?
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 16:51
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

We do the same with corners. We remember GOALS scored from corners, and get excited when we win a corner. That's because the excitement of a goal, the association with "the corner" makes us believe that corners are valuable things to win. But they are not. You might. Everybody I know gets...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 16:50
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

Without wanting to go off on too much of a tangent... That sounds like the stats guy is ignoring the relevance of knowing the benchmark of the person who attained the 1st and having an idea of whether they're as able as them to get a first. The recipients of the 3-4-5 1st's are unknown and so the p...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 16:26
Forum: The Team
Topic: Harte Signs
Replies: 842
Views: 65166

Re: Harte Signs

You're missing my essential point, which is that trying to prove anything about the effect of one individual player on such a complex, inter-connected and multi-faceted game as football with statistics is virtually impossible. So, for the sake of argument, Harte plays the next four games and we win...
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 16:13
Forum: The Team
Topic: Harte Signs
Replies: 842
Views: 65166

Re: Harte Signs

The same people who say one player can't make a difference
are also saying that "all we need is a good striker"
by Snowball
07 Oct 2010 16:12
Forum: The Team
Topic: Goal scoring problems?
Replies: 170
Views: 15069

Re: Goal scoring problems?

We do the same with corners. We remember GOALS scored from corners, and get excited when we win a corner. That's because the excitement of a goal, the association with "the corner" makes us believe that corners are valuable things to win. But they are not. In fact it's almost certain that ...
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