Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

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tmesis
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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by tmesis » 02 Aug 2020 11:53

SouthDownsRoyal The Brentford model is a good one and would be nice if we adopted similar.

They’ve done well but it’s also by no means a guaranteed model that works forever, although they do very well scouting and buying players an they need at good prices no one can ever know you buy a player for X million and he will be good for your club then you sell him for X million more job done.

If it was that easy loads of clubs would be doing it.

I think half the problem is that a most clubs don't even try. They see clubs throwing money about and having success, and therefore seem to think throwing money about is the way to go about it. This is probably especially true for owners who see "gambling on getting promoted" as a worthwhile bet.

When clubs go down the cheaper route, it's usually through necessity.

It certainly isn't easy. You need a good scouting network, and well as a management structure that knows the kind of players a club needs, who will fit into a manager's desired style of play. Recruitment has been terrible at Reading for years, and if we decided to go for the cheaper option with our current set-up, it would just result in us buying a string a cheap Portuguese players.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by NewCorkSeth » 02 Aug 2020 12:00

On the whole scouting thing Brentford seem to do a lot of recruitment from France. Thats not revolutionary. Alan Carrs dad did it for Newcastle for years. Its a well known bargain bin.

The other thing on Brentford is the owners pay 0 attention to the table. They see that as a false way to evaluate how well a team is doing and focus almost entirely on statistical analysis. Much like our famous "false 3rd" the owner says the table lies. It lies due to the luck involved in football.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Nameless » 02 Aug 2020 12:05

NewCorkSeth On the whole scouting thing Brentford seem to do a lot of recruitment from France. Thats not revolutionary. Alan Carrs dad did it for Newcastle for years. Its a well known bargain bin.

The other thing on Brentford is the owners pay 0 attention to the table. They see that as a false way to evaluate how well a team is doing and focus almost entirely on statistical analysis. Much like our famous "false 3rd" the owner says the table lies. It lies due to the luck involved in football.


They must be wondering why they seem to still be playing matches despite having finished their fixtures !
Seems rather bizarre to judge your success using a different measure to everyone else.
Do they also not care about the score in individual games as that is also a ‘lie’ ?

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by SouthDownsRoyal » 02 Aug 2020 12:09

tmesis
SouthDownsRoyal The Brentford model is a good one and would be nice if we adopted similar.

They’ve done well but it’s also by no means a guaranteed model that works forever, although they do very well scouting and buying players an they need at good prices no one can ever know you buy a player for X million and he will be good for your club then you sell him for X million more job done.

If it was that easy loads of clubs would be doing it.

I think half the problem is that a most clubs don't even try. They see clubs throwing money about and having success, and therefore seem to think throwing money about is the way to go about it. This is probably especially true for owners who see "gambling on getting promoted" as a worthwhile bet.

When clubs go down the cheaper route, it's usually through necessity.

It certainly isn't easy. You need a good scouting network, and well as a management structure that knows the kind of players a club needs, who will fit into a manager's desired style of play. Recruitment has been terrible at Reading for years, and if we decided to go for the cheaper option with our current set-up, it would just result in us buying a string a cheap Portuguese players.


Good points. I would dearly love us to scout well, bring in unknown or cheaper potential talent rather than just throwing money at known names. Actually build a squad rather than simply buying players fantasy football style.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by NewCorkSeth » 02 Aug 2020 12:11

Nameless
NewCorkSeth On the whole scouting thing Brentford seem to do a lot of recruitment from France. Thats not revolutionary. Alan Carrs dad did it for Newcastle for years. Its a well known bargain bin.

The other thing on Brentford is the owners pay 0 attention to the table. They see that as a false way to evaluate how well a team is doing and focus almost entirely on statistical analysis. Much like our famous "false 3rd" the owner says the table lies. It lies due to the luck involved in football.


They must be wondering why they seem to still be playing matches despite having finished their fixtures !
Seems rather bizarre to judge your success using a different measure to everyone else.
Do they also not care about the score in individual games as that is also a ‘lie’ ?

So they use the metrics the owner created as a method of getting an upper hand on betting companies to judge whether the team is moving in the right direction. Its a way of not judging a manager solely on the table or one the ever present "eye test".

I'm sure they dont care about the score. For example in any given game a linesman can not flag an obvious offside or a penalty can be given that wasnt one leading to a result that doesnt reflect how well the team actually did.

Its all very moneyball. But its working! They continually improve. Its a long process and one they have done with their other club with equal success.


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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Snowflake Royal » 02 Aug 2020 12:13

Nameless
NewCorkSeth On the whole scouting thing Brentford seem to do a lot of recruitment from France. Thats not revolutionary. Alan Carrs dad did it for Newcastle for years. Its a well known bargain bin.

The other thing on Brentford is the owners pay 0 attention to the table. They see that as a false way to evaluate how well a team is doing and focus almost entirely on statistical analysis. Much like our famous "false 3rd" the owner says the table lies. It lies due to the luck involved in football.


They must be wondering why they seem to still be playing matches despite having finished their fixtures !
Seems rather bizarre to judge your success using a different measure to everyone else.
Do they also not care about the score in individual games as that is also a ‘lie’ ?

It's a pretty good approach to judging managers.

Rather than just saying you finished 8th instead of 5th so you're out, they see if the performances might warrant a higher position if things had gone slightly more in line with stats.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by tmesis » 02 Aug 2020 16:44

NewCorkSeth The other thing on Brentford is the owners pay 0 attention to the table. They see that as a false way to evaluate how well a team is doing and focus almost entirely on statistical analysis. Much like our famous "false 3rd" the owner says the table lies. It lies due to the luck involved in football.

I don't think the table lies much due to 'luck', but it is perhaps not the best way of evaluating how good a set of players is. What it does tell you more is how effectively they work together. I'd actually say goal difference is a better indicator of quality.

Under Stam (first season) we were incredibly effective. We'd had a strong defence, so we'd nick a goal, and you always thought we'd win after that. There really wasn't much luck about finishing third. We were just very good at our gameplan.

I recall reading about the Dynamo Kiev team of the 1980s, that made up a large part of the USSR team for years. Their manager was incredibly focused on stats, principally how often a player would make mistakes. He built a team that made very few mistakes, and it made them incredibly hard to play against. Yet, when all the stars players from the team moved on, they almost all flopped, unable to play outside their system.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Millsy » 02 Aug 2020 22:22

Has Ovie definitely left for good? It's just that it has been clearly announced that others have officially left for good by with Ovie there's not been much said other than keeping him is unlikely. I haven't been keeping up too much though so I might have missed something. Suggests to me the deal is far from dead. #wishfulthinking

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by leon » 03 Aug 2020 00:06

tmesis
NewCorkSeth The other thing on Brentford is the owners pay 0 attention to the table. They see that as a false way to evaluate how well a team is doing and focus almost entirely on statistical analysis. Much like our famous "false 3rd" the owner says the table lies. It lies due to the luck involved in football.

I don't think the table lies much due to 'luck', but it is perhaps not the best way of evaluating how good a set of players is. What it does tell you more is how effectively they work together. I'd actually say goal difference is a better indicator of quality.

Under Stam (first season) we were incredibly effective. We'd had a strong defence, so we'd nick a goal, and you always thought we'd win after that. There really wasn't much luck about finishing third. We were just very good at our gameplan.

I recall reading about the Dynamo Kiev team of the 1980s, that made up a large part of the USSR team for years. Their manager was incredibly focused on stats, principally how often a player would make mistakes. He built a team that made very few mistakes, and it made them incredibly hard to play against. Yet, when all the stars players from the team moved on, they almost all flopped, unable to play outside their system.


They were an immense team.

They also had Oleg Blokhin who was an exceptional player.


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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Nameless » 03 Aug 2020 07:30

Millsy Has Ovie definitely left for good? It's just that it has been clearly announced that others have officially left for good by with Ovie there's not been much said other than keeping him is unlikely. I haven't been keeping up too much though so I might have missed something. Suggests to me the deal is far from dead. #wishfulthinking


I doubt there is a definitive answer.
His loan has finished and he’s not signed a permenant deal.
So he’s not in any sense our player.
We don’tknow Anything about the option we had. Was it an exclusive option ? Was there a time limit on it ?
We don’t know what we are discussing with Liverpool and him or what he thinks of the situation. We don’t know how active the discussions are. We might have asked Liverpool a month ago if we can renegotiate, they might have said they’dget Back to us and nothing has happened since .
I think you are right in that if he was definitely not coming something would have been said. I’d be amazed if other clubs weren’t watching and thedealmight be that Liverpool will see if anyone else will pay £3 million,if they won’t we can have him for £2.5 million. Of course if he insists he wants to come here then that would swing the deal our way.
You wonder how much discount is enough to make a significant difference to aclub like Liverpool, and how much they will want to stick to the price on principle.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Royalwaster » 03 Aug 2020 09:07

NewCorkSeth On the whole scouting thing Brentford seem to do a lot of recruitment from France. Thats not revolutionary. Alan Carrs dad did it for Newcastle for years. Its a well known bargain bin.

The other thing on Brentford is the owners pay 0 attention to the table. They see that as a false way to evaluate how well a team is doing and focus almost entirely on statistical analysis. Much like our famous "false 3rd" the owner says the table lies. It lies due to the luck involved in football.


It's interesting as that approach is only used normally in academies - I've said this before but I know a Prem U18s manager and they are completely not interested in the results, all they are interested in are the stats of individual players and more specifically the one or two star players who they see as most likely to make it. So the team can lose 5:2, but if those two players had X forward passes, X tackles, X shots ... this will count as a successful match. In the league, this is of course much harder to maintain as league position does ultimately matter.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Millsy » 03 Aug 2020 10:48

Nameless
Millsy Has Ovie definitely left for good? It's just that it has been clearly announced that others have officially left for good by with Ovie there's not been much said other than keeping him is unlikely. I haven't been keeping up too much though so I might have missed something. Suggests to me the deal is far from dead. #wishfulthinking


I doubt there is a definitive answer.
His loan has finished and he’s not signed a permenant deal.
So he’s not in any sense our player.
We don’tknow Anything about the option we had. Was it an exclusive option ? Was there a time limit on it ?
We don’t know what we are discussing with Liverpool and him or what he thinks of the situation. We don’t know how active the discussions are. We might have asked Liverpool a month ago if we can renegotiate, they might have said they’dget Back to us and nothing has happened since .
I think you are right in that if he was definitely not coming something would have been said. I’d be amazed if other clubs weren’t watching and thedealmight be that Liverpool will see if anyone else will pay £3 million,if they won’t we can have him for £2.5 million. Of course if he insists he wants to come here then that would swing the deal our way.
You wonder how much discount is enough to make a significant difference to aclub like Liverpool, and how much they will want to stick to the price on principle.


Yeah that's interesting.

I don't know why but I always assumed the issue was the wages more than the transfer fee but sure that could be a stickign point too. I suspect it's a case of seeing how much we can offload Swift for.

I know covid changes everything but I can't imagine otehr clubs who can afford it not taking every opportunity to snap him up for more than £3mill. And offering higher wages than we can too. I can't see it us getting him therefore if the original deal dies.

The only way I can see it happening is if we can keep onto the £3mill deal and see if we can make other changes to accommodate it. Like Swift out, possibly Moore out. Maybe even Puscas... who knows.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by billybraggsbeard » 03 Aug 2020 11:37

Millsy
Nameless
Millsy Has Ovie definitely left for good? It's just that it has been clearly announced that others have officially left for good by with Ovie there's not been much said other than keeping him is unlikely. I haven't been keeping up too much though so I might have missed something. Suggests to me the deal is far from dead. #wishfulthinking


I doubt there is a definitive answer.
His loan has finished and he’s not signed a permenant deal.
So he’s not in any sense our player.
We don’tknow Anything about the option we had. Was it an exclusive option ? Was there a time limit on it ?
We don’t know what we are discussing with Liverpool and him or what he thinks of the situation. We don’t know how active the discussions are. We might have asked Liverpool a month ago if we can renegotiate, they might have said they’dget Back to us and nothing has happened since .
I think you are right in that if he was definitely not coming something would have been said. I’d be amazed if other clubs weren’t watching and thedealmight be that Liverpool will see if anyone else will pay £3 million,if they won’t we can have him for £2.5 million. Of course if he insists he wants to come here then that would swing the deal our way.
You wonder how much discount is enough to make a significant difference to aclub like Liverpool, and how much they will want to stick to the price on principle.


Yeah that's interesting.

I don't know why but I always assumed the issue was the wages more than the transfer fee but sure that could be a stickign point too. I suspect it's a case of seeing how much we can offload Swift for.

I know covid changes everything but I can't imagine otehr clubs who can afford it not taking every opportunity to snap him up for more than £3mill. And offering higher wages than we can too. I can't see it us getting him therefore if the original deal dies.

The only way I can see it happening is if we can keep onto the £3mill deal and see if we can make other changes to accommodate it. Like Swift out, possibly Moore out. Maybe even Puscas... who knows.


I feel we will need to sell all three of above Swift, Moore & Puscas anyway whether that leaves us with enough to buy Ovie who knows


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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Snowflake Royal » 03 Aug 2020 12:06

I doubt many people will offer more wages than us. We're consistently fairly high payers.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Hound » 03 Aug 2020 13:15

Wouldn’t be surprised if we are trying to change the terms to something along the lines of less up front and bigger sell on etc

Would make sense in the current climate

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Millsy » 03 Aug 2020 14:06

Snowflake Royal I doubt many people will offer more wages than us. We're consistently fairly high payers.


Absolutely, but I'm talking in the current situation with what can afford. Chances are others in a less bad situation will be able to affford more and we'll have no chance.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Nameless » 03 Aug 2020 14:11

Millsy
Snowflake Royal I doubt many people will offer more wages than us. We're consistently fairly high payers.


Absolutely, but I'm talking in the current situation with what can afford. Chances are others in a less bad situation will be able to affford more and we'll have no chance.


I recall someone (not sure who) saying wages were our main issue and we needed to slash them.
Just maybe that’s what we are doing ?

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Millsy » 03 Aug 2020 14:16

Nameless
Millsy
Snowflake Royal I doubt many people will offer more wages than us. We're consistently fairly high payers.


Absolutely, but I'm talking in the current situation with what can afford. Chances are others in a less bad situation will be able to affford more and we'll have no chance.


I recall someone (not sure who) saying wages were our main issue and we needed to slash them.
Just maybe that’s what we are doing ?


Yeah same here, hence my concern.

I should stop my total baseless speculation, but my wild guess is that unless we can somehow hold onto the deal or tweak it we'll lose him because as soon as it's a free for all, we'll be outbid, outwaged, and he'll be gone somewhere else.

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Mr Angry » 03 Aug 2020 17:13

Royalwaster
NewCorkSeth On the whole scouting thing Brentford seem to do a lot of recruitment from France. Thats not revolutionary. Alan Carrs dad did it for Newcastle for years. Its a well known bargain bin.

The other thing on Brentford is the owners pay 0 attention to the table. They see that as a false way to evaluate how well a team is doing and focus almost entirely on statistical analysis. Much like our famous "false 3rd" the owner says the table lies. It lies due to the luck involved in football.


It's interesting as that approach is only used normally in academies - I've said this before but I know a Prem U18s manager and they are completely not interested in the results, all they are interested in are the stats of individual players and more specifically the one or two star players who they see as most likely to make it. So the team can lose 5:2, but if those two players had X forward passes, X tackles, X shots ... this will count as a successful match. In the league, this is of course much harder to maintain as league position does ultimately matter.


We had a Manager like that once; someone who said he was building for the future and that results - even relegation - weren't important as in the longer run it would pay off. We slipped down the table, the fans and the media openly slagged the bloke off when he would make quotes about how he saw a game which seemed utterly counter-intuitive to what we had been watching, and before the end of that season, the Chairman got spooked and so the manager got sacked.

Bearing in mind the subsequent career of that Manager, you have to wonder "what if?"

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Re: Confimred loan - Ovie Ejaria

by Snowflake Royal » 03 Aug 2020 17:47

That the guy who joined a Play Off side, spent a large amount of money, said the first month of the full season was pre-season, had the team in the bottom 6 and asked for a load more money to fix the problems he caused by dramatically scaling back fitness training and persisting in trying to keep possession in our defensive third as much as possible, with little interest in attacking?

And who was replaced by a guy who instantly got us up the table, took us to the PO Final and then won the league?

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