Play off odds

JC
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 1043
Joined: 16 Apr 2004 22:51

Re: Play off odds

by JC » 15 May 2017 09:42

Hound Interesting to see Fulham are still overwhelming favourites to win the tie. We are about 2/1 to win the game in 90mins.

The bookies really don't seem to rate us this year


it's not really that surprising. Don't you feel that we have been a little fortunate to maintain our top 6 spot in spite of conceding more than 2 goals on no less than 8 occasions

User avatar
RoyalBlue
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 11676
Joined: 13 Apr 2004 22:39
Location: Developed a pathological hatred of snakes on 14/10/19

Re: Play off odds

by RoyalBlue » 15 May 2017 09:48

JC
Hound Interesting to see Fulham are still overwhelming favourites to win the tie. We are about 2/1 to win the game in 90mins.

The bookies really don't seem to rate us this year


it's not really that surprising. Don't you feel that we have been a little fortunate to maintain our top 6 spot in spite of conceding more than 2 goals on no less than 8 occasions


Maybe I'm due a whoosh here but I didn't realise that you got points for fortune.

User avatar
Silver Fox
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 25702
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 10:02
Location: From the Andes to the indies in my undies

Re: Play off odds

by Silver Fox » 15 May 2017 10:12

JC
Hound Interesting to see Fulham are still overwhelming favourites to win the tie. We are about 2/1 to win the game in 90mins.

The bookies really don't seem to rate us this year


it's not really that surprising. Don't you feel that we have been a little fortunate to maintain our top 6 spot in spite of conceding more than 2 goals on no less than 8 occasions


Certainly no more fortunate than anyone who only finished sixth because of Leeds massive end of season choke

JC
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 1043
Joined: 16 Apr 2004 22:51

Re: Play off odds

by JC » 15 May 2017 10:17

RoyalBlue
JC
Hound Interesting to see Fulham are still overwhelming favourites to win the tie. We are about 2/1 to win the game in 90mins.

The bookies really don't seem to rate us this year


it's not really that surprising. Don't you feel that we have been a little fortunate to maintain our top 6 spot in spite of conceding more than 2 goals on no less than 8 occasions


Maybe I'm due a whoosh here but I didn't realise that you got points for fortune.


I have no idea what you are on about. I said that we were fortunate to stay in the playoffs. Our defending was often abysmal and I suspect it is not often that a team finishing 3rd concedes 3 four times, 4 twice and a 5 and a 7.

User avatar
Schards#2
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4197
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 13:46
Location: Wildest Wiltshire

Re: Play off odds

by Schards#2 » 15 May 2017 10:19

Our home record is better than their away record so, to me, the odds seem daft

It's only superstition that's keeping me from backing Reading


Greatwesternline
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6239
Joined: 09 Apr 2008 14:36

Re: Play off odds

by Greatwesternline » 15 May 2017 10:24

It all seems very strange. Of course the bookies may just be reacting to how the money is going. If lots of people fancy Fulham they need to change their odds to drive more bets onto Reading

User avatar
Pepe the Horseman
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 17825
Joined: 23 Jun 2011 10:24
Location: Putting right what once went wrong

Re: Play off odds

by Pepe the Horseman » 15 May 2017 10:25

Schards#2 Our home record is better than their away record so, to me, the odds seem daft

It's only superstition that's keeping me from backing Reading

Samesies. Logically we should all be backing Reading to pay for our day out at Wembley.

User avatar
BR0B0T
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 15325
Joined: 08 Nov 2016 23:25

Re: Play off odds

by BR0B0T » 15 May 2017 10:29

do you remember a couple of pages ago when
we worked out how bookmakers calcul8 odds.

do you remember?

RoyalX
Member
Posts: 270
Joined: 01 Aug 2009 19:45

Re: Play off odds

by RoyalX » 15 May 2017 10:36

Greatwesternline It all seems very strange. Of course the bookies may just be reacting to how the money is going. If lots of people fancy Fulham they need to change their odds to drive more bets onto Reading


Nothing to do with this. Fulham are rated much better than us, mainly due to the difference in our respective xGs over the course of the season. Weight of money/"form"/past play-off records ( :lol:) all deemed largely irrelevant.


Hound
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 24935
Joined: 27 Sep 2016 22:16
Location: Simpleton

Re: Play off odds

by Hound » 15 May 2017 10:39

BR0B0T do you remember a couple of pages ago when
we worked out how bookmakers calcul8 odds.

do you remember?


Was that all that horrible spreadsheet stuff that took no account of form/home advantage etc, and didn't fit onto the web page properly? I did try to forget that, yes. Is it really that stats driven?

Whoever said we were fortunate to get in the play offs - that is absolute nonsense. We were something like 10 points clear of 7th weren't we? A tendency to concede when we are chasing the game doesn't make us a bad side

Elm Park Kid
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2053
Joined: 05 Feb 2013 10:45

Re: Play off odds

by Elm Park Kid » 15 May 2017 10:41

Fulham looked like the much more threatening team on Saturday. We benefited from the normal first leg nerves and defended well but i'm not sure how well we would have done if they had been more confident going forward. I'm expecting tomorrow to be a very different game and if I was forced to bet £1,000 of my own money i'd put it on Fulham to win.

User avatar
Silver Fox
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 25702
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 10:02
Location: From the Andes to the indies in my undies

Re: Play off odds

by Silver Fox » 15 May 2017 10:45

Elm Park Kid Fulham looked like the much more threatening team on Saturday.


Well, they had twice as many shots on target as we did

User avatar
BR0B0T
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 15325
Joined: 08 Nov 2016 23:25

Re: Play off odds

by BR0B0T » 15 May 2017 10:57

Hound
BR0B0T do you remember a couple of pages ago when
we worked out how bookmakers calcul8 odds.

do you remember?


Was that all that horrible spreadsheet stuff that took no account of form/home advantage etc, and didn't fit onto the web page properly? I did try to forget that, yes. Is it really that stats driven?


spreadsheet was knocked together in 5 mins before the first game
and was primarily looking at qualification. It was pretty accurate.

How else are you going to come up with a 'number' for the odds?

You're trying to assess the 'strength' of two teams in a probabilistic
manner. The hypothesis being that the 'stronger' team will win more
often.

A fairly good predictor is goals expectancy. Feel free to go and back
test it over the last 20 years or so


Hound
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 24935
Joined: 27 Sep 2016 22:16
Location: Simpleton

Re: Play off odds

by Hound » 15 May 2017 11:02

Silver Fox
Elm Park Kid Fulham looked like the much more threatening team on Saturday.


Well, they had twice as many shots on target as we did


agree, they barely threatened at all. At 1-0, I thought we were more likely to score again

In saying that, I do still think they will win the tie. I expect them to play a lot better and have more space with us playing in a less compact manner.

Stranded
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 19587
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 12:42
Location: Propping up the bar in the Nags

Re: Play off odds

by Stranded » 15 May 2017 11:11

Silver Fox
Elm Park Kid Fulham looked like the much more threatening team on Saturday.


Well, they had twice as many shots on target as we did


Quite - there was no point on Saturday, even when down to 10 men that I felt Fulham were about to create a spate of good chances and possibly get away from us.

Al Habsi's only save of note was the one that unfortunately he parried directly on to Cairney's head. If he had done better there (as he will think he should have done), really think we would have seen the game out at 1-0.

User avatar
CountryRoyal
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 10697
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 13:44

Re: Play off odds

by CountryRoyal » 15 May 2017 11:26

BR0B0T
Hound
BR0B0T do you remember a couple of pages ago when
we worked out how bookmakers calcul8 odds.

do you remember?


Was that all that horrible spreadsheet stuff that took no account of form/home advantage etc, and didn't fit onto the web page properly? I did try to forget that, yes. Is it really that stats driven?


spreadsheet was knocked together in 5 mins before the first game
and was primarily looking at qualification. It was pretty accurate.

How else are you going to come up with a 'number' for the odds?

You're trying to assess the 'strength' of two teams in a probabilistic
manner. The hypothesis being that the 'stronger' team will win more
often.

A fairly good predictor is goals expectancy. Feel free to go and back
test it over the last 20 years or so


Not you as well.. :|

JUST FCUK OFF WITH THIS GOALS EXPECTANCY CRAP.

User avatar
BR0B0T
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 15325
Joined: 08 Nov 2016 23:25

Re: Play off odds

by BR0B0T » 15 May 2017 11:33

CountryRoyal
BR0B0T
Hound
Was that all that horrible spreadsheet stuff that took no account of form/home advantage etc, and didn't fit onto the web page properly? I did try to forget that, yes. Is it really that stats driven?


spreadsheet was knocked together in 5 mins before the first game
and was primarily looking at qualification. It was pretty accurate.

How else are you going to come up with a 'number' for the odds?

You're trying to assess the 'strength' of two teams in a probabilistic
manner. The hypothesis being that the 'stronger' team will win more
often.

A fairly good predictor is goals expectancy. Feel free to go and back
test it over the last 20 years or so


Not you as well.. :|

JUST FCUK OFF WITH THIS GOALS EXPECTANCY CRAP.


stop being thick m8 for 5 mins

User avatar
CountryRoyal
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 10697
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 13:44

Re: Play off odds

by CountryRoyal » 15 May 2017 11:47

I understand the concept of it you melt, just also perhaps more pertinently I'm very aware just how tediously dull it is, and ultimately it's a fairly nugatory excercise.

RoyalX
Member
Posts: 270
Joined: 01 Aug 2009 19:45

Re: Play off odds

by RoyalX » 15 May 2017 14:14

CountryRoyal I understand the concept of it you melt, just also perhaps more pertinently I'm very aware just how tediously dull it is, and ultimately it's a fairly nugatory excercise.


You're allowed to find it tediously dull, but it is the reason the odds are what they are...

Greatwesternline
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6239
Joined: 09 Apr 2008 14:36

Re: Play off odds

by Greatwesternline » 15 May 2017 16:27

CountryRoyal I understand the concept of it you melt, just also perhaps more pertinently I'm very aware just how tediously dull it is, and ultimately it's a fairly nugatory excercise.


On what basis do you think bookmakers should calculate their odds?

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Biscuit goalie, Google [Bot], LUX, Royals and Racers and 406 guests

It is currently 29 Mar 2024 08:04