Are we screwed?

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Are we screwed?

by Snowflake Royal » 06 Aug 2019 08:12

Maybe we've decided the money spent beyond FFP will gain us more points than we'd lose from a points deduction.

More likely we're closing in on shifting more cost and anticipating money for Hector as already said.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by WestYorksRoyal » 06 Aug 2019 08:32

If we spent £5m on Joao and gave a 3 year contract, the expense would be spread (I.e. £1.67m per year). Maybe it's not so unreasonable, but it also means expenses already incurred going into future years.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by Hound » 06 Aug 2019 09:00

it does, but so much wage will be off the books by the end of this year. Gunter, Mannone, McCleary, Popa, Obita - all on Gourlay contracts - will be gone. This added to Kelly, McShane, Joey, Bod etc from this year.

Think only Aluko (who hopefully we can get rid of to China), Baldock and Swift will still be with contracts from that time.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by Stranded » 06 Aug 2019 09:27

Snowflake Royal Maybe we've decided the money spent beyond FFP will gain us more points than we'd lose from a points deduction.

More likely we're closing in on shifting more cost and anticipating money for Hector as already said.


I doubt that Howe would go down that route so yes would expect they are comfortable that wages will be shifted and/or a fee is due (though appears we may have waived any Hector money to make Joao happen).

I would think any and all deals done this year will have been structured to have minimal impact on the FFP line this season. July 1st 2020 sees the 20m loss disappear, so we will have a lot more FFP space - so anticipate deals being structured whereby we pay (or start paying) for deals from then.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by Hound » 06 Aug 2019 09:30

Seems the João deal could be as much as 7m all in

I think the offer for Ejaria was along those lines - give him to us for free this year and we’ll buy him next season. May still happen

Pepe deal sounds similar


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Re: Are we screwed?

by The Enfield Royal71 » 06 Aug 2019 14:00

Would Lucas J come to us though? I mean he scored against us. If he wanted to sign for us he could have scored an own goal instead.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by Mid Sussex Royal » 06 Aug 2019 21:05

WestYorksRoyal If we spent £5m on Joao and gave a 3 year contract, the expense would be spread (I.e. £1.67m per year). Maybe it's not so unreasonable, but it also means expenses already incurred going into future years.


Yep that's what I'm thinking as FFP 3 year rolling fig looks much better next June; maybe the players we've paid a fee for we're just paying a small down payment now ? We have lost a lot off the wage bill too since Jan and bought some money in.

Hopefully the local journos will ask some q's on this

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Re: Are we screwed?

by WestYorksRoyal » 07 Aug 2019 08:14

Right, time to say it. I'm really concerned by this Puscas rumour that looks true. Yesterday's business looked rational, but this just looks like tipping point.

Rafael was a free and Pele was a loan, so they are sensible. The club may still be hoping to move on a couple of high earners, in particular Gunter, but overall I understand how they don't screw us. Joao's fee was supposedly financed by the Hector sell on fee and structured to ensure a greater expense hit our account next year, after the £20m loss goes off our FFP calculation.

I don't know what Howe et. al know, but given everything we've heard this summer, I simply don't understand how that leaves room to smash our transfer record, however we structure it. If we funnel the expense into future years, it's a short term fix; not a long term solution.

My worry is that this has come from the owners, who do occasionally get involved and are ambitious. I like our owners overall; Bearwood is a great development and the free away travel is a fantastic gesture. But they don't know the English game like Howe, who presided over such a successful era.

I also don't see a clear need for Puscas. We are well stocked in attacking positions now, and I want a chance for Loader, Olise and Barrett to push on this season. Puscas pushes that door shut a little more. The 3 other signings seemed to fill a clear need in the squad; this doesn't.

I share the desire to the Premier League again, but it doesn't have to be this session. We need to develop the foundations of the squad, and add a few key acquisitions year on year until our team is awesome, as in 2006.

Maybe it's suspicion through experience. In SJMs era, we dreamed of weeks like this and they never happened. But we consistently played good football and were in the promotion mix. Since that era ended, which I view as triggered by the disastrous Pogrebnyak signing, we've lost that. Our recruitment has not had any sort of strategy and it's resulted in dross. I hope I'm wrong and this is different, but surely a bit of caution is rational?

The best thing about this is that Aluko will no longer be our record signing; one embarrassing record lost.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by The Enfield Royal71 » 07 Aug 2019 08:17

Pele?
Puscas?

I heard Lev Yashin and Stan Mortenson are on our Rader aswell.


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Re: Are we screwed?

by paultheroyal » 07 Aug 2019 08:23

WestYorksRoyal Right, time to say it. I'm really concerned by this Puscas rumour that looks true. Yesterday's business looked rational, but this just looks like tipping point.

Rafael was a free and Pele was a loan, so they are sensible. The club may still be hoping to move on a couple of high earners, in particular Gunter, but overall I understand how they don't screw us. Joao's fee was supposedly financed by the Hector sell on fee and structured to ensure a greater expense hit our account next year, after the £20m loss goes off our FFP calculation.

I don't know what Howe et. al know, but given everything we've heard this summer, I simply don't understand how that leaves room to smash our transfer record, however we structure it. If we funnel the expense into future years, it's a short term fix; not a long term solution.

My worry is that this has come from the owners, who do occasionally get involved and are ambitious. I like our owners overall; Bearwood is a great development and the free away travel is a fantastic gesture. But they don't know the English game like Howe, who presided over such a successful era.

I also don't see a clear need for Puscas. We are well stocked in attacking positions now, and I want a chance for Loader, Olise and Barrett to push on this season. Puscas pushes that door shut a little more. The 3 other signings seemed to fill a clear need in the squad; this doesn't.

I share the desire to the Premier League again, but it doesn't have to be this session. We need to develop the foundations of the squad, and add a few key acquisitions year on year until our team is awesome, as in 2006.

Maybe it's suspicion through experience. In SJMs era, we dreamed of weeks like this and they never happened. But we consistently played good football and were in the promotion mix. Since that era ended, which I view as triggered by the disastrous Pogrebnyak signing, we've lost that. Our recruitment has not had any sort of strategy and it's resulted in dross. I hope I'm wrong and this is different, but surely a bit of caution is rational?

The best thing about this is that Aluko will no longer be our record signing; one embarrassing record lost.


We might be well stocked in strikers but let’s be honest they are crap, so that’s that answer. If there is the opportunity to sign players like Joao and now Puscas then why not. Reading independent articles last night Puscas sounds the real deal.

With regards to the money, piece by piece they are addressing the issues. Embrace it, enjoy it, don’t worry about it.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by Stranded » 07 Aug 2019 08:32

WestYorksRoyal Right, time to say it. I'm really concerned by this Puscas rumour that looks true. Yesterday's business looked rational, but this just looks like tipping point.

Rafael was a free and Pele was a loan, so they are sensible. The club may still be hoping to move on a couple of high earners, in particular Gunter, but overall I understand how they don't screw us. Joao's fee was supposedly financed by the Hector sell on fee and structured to ensure a greater expense hit our account next year, after the £20m loss goes off our FFP calculation.

I don't know what Howe et. al know, but given everything we've heard this summer, I simply don't understand how that leaves room to smash our transfer record, however we structure it. If we funnel the expense into future years, it's a short term fix; not a long term solution.

My worry is that this has come from the owners, who do occasionally get involved and are ambitious. I like our owners overall; Bearwood is a great development and the free away travel is a fantastic gesture. But they don't know the English game like Howe, who presided over such a successful era.

I also don't see a clear need for Puscas. We are well stocked in attacking positions now, and I want a chance for Loader, Olise and Barrett to push on this season. Puscas pushes that door shut a little more. The 3 other signings seemed to fill a clear need in the squad; this doesn't.

I share the desire to the Premier League again, but it doesn't have to be this session. We need to develop the foundations of the squad, and add a few key acquisitions year on year until our team is awesome, as in 2006.

Maybe it's suspicion through experience. In SJMs era, we dreamed of weeks like this and they never happened. But we consistently played good football and were in the promotion mix. Since that era ended, which I view as triggered by the disastrous Pogrebnyak signing, we've lost that. Our recruitment has not had any sort of strategy and it's resulted in dross. I hope I'm wrong and this is different, but surely a bit of caution is rational?

The best thing about this is that Aluko will no longer be our record signing; one embarrassing record lost.


I understand these concerns and the sudden up shift in recruitment but we have a pretty cagey operator in Howe these days - most of our best deals came when he was in charge (and working in tandem with Hammond admittedly) but he seems to have the knack for getting a deal done that is beneficial for us.

Joao is essentially cost netural this season as it appears we have only paid 800k so offset by the JDB move (and some apparent bartering around Hector's sell on fee). After that most of the fee seems to be reliant on promotion, scoring 20 goals and clauses like that. It is very unlikely the fee will ever get up to the 5-7m range if we stay in the Championship (or lower).

Puscas is an interesting one - he seems to be a very different kind of forward - seen him described as a "bastard of a centre forward" and sometimes, if a deal is right you have to go for it - he looks better than what we have so worth the gamble. Again, it is being rumoured that the deal is €8m not the €10m bandied round and we are paying €2m up front (so about 1.8m GBP) - those who have the FFP figures in front of them clearly feel this can be afforded and is worthwhile.

With Puscas, we are potentially getting a player whose star is on the rise - scores regularly and at 23 has the potential to become a very good player indeed - if he succeeds with us, it could mean we make the PL or his value rises and we make a decent profit in 2020 or 2021.

These are the only 2 we are paying money for (poss smallish loan fees aside) and with the 20m loss dropping out of FFP calcs from 1st July 2020, we will have more headroom - which explains the structure of these deals.

So yes, suddenly committing big money is a concern but it seems to be being done in a prudent way and invested in players who seem both better than we currently have and would also have sell on value.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by paddy20 » 07 Aug 2019 08:35

Just as we thought we were getting to grips with FFP everything seems to have been turned on its head. Will Howe enlighten us or are we just going for points and accepting a 9 pt deduction as inevitable anyway so lets make it worthwhile.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by WestYorksRoyal » 07 Aug 2019 08:35

The other FFP consideration is that top Championship talent can fetch £20m+ these days. If Puscas destroys this league, or Olise develops as we hope, we could be in for a big windfall in a couple of years.


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Re: Are we screwed?

by paddy20 » 07 Aug 2019 08:35

Or is Moore on his way??

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Re: Are we screwed?

by NotARacist » 07 Aug 2019 08:36

WestYorksRoyal The other FFP consideration is that top Championship talent can fetch £20m+ these days. If Puscas destroys this league, or Olise develops as we hope, we could be in for a big windfall in a couple of years.

A good season and it's not outrageous to think Moore should be 15m+ in today's market. We haven't been the best at selling in recent years though. Hopefully that changes.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by Nameless » 07 Aug 2019 08:39

paddy20 Just as we thought we were getting to grips with FFP everything seems to have been turned on its head. Will Howe enlighten us or are we just going for points and accepting a 9 pt deduction as inevitable anyway so lets make it worthwhile.


Luckily Howe understands the situation so we can ignore the concerns of fans who don’t understand FFP, don’t understand our finances, don’t understand how deals are put together and don’t understand our long term plans.
We need to go back to just watching the football because for most of us (myself at the head of the queue) the detail,of the finances is always going to be opaque so we may as well let the peop,e in charge deal with it.
You either trust Nigel Howe to get it right or not and either way there is nothing we can do about it

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Re: Are we screwed?

by Hound » 07 Aug 2019 09:02

Think Puscas is very much a case of seeing an opportunity for a very highly rated young striker at good value.

If he was 28 I'd be a little unhappy. But he could turn out to be a cracking signing based on clips/reports, so I'll trust Howe and co on this one

As I said in another thread, losing Gunter, McCleary and Popa (if we do) probably pays for this and Joao wages wise for this season. Maybe we also have an offer in for Baldock or Novakovich as well

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Re: Are we screwed?

by Nameless » 07 Aug 2019 09:09

Hound Think Puscas is very much a case of seeing an opportunity for a very highly rated young striker at good value.

If he was 28 I'd be a little unhappy. But he could turn out to be a cracking signing based on clips/reports, so I'll trust Howe and co on this one

As I said in another thread, losing Gunter, McCleary and Popa (if we do) probably pays for this and Joao wages wise for this season. Maybe we also have an offer in for Baldock or Novakovich as well


Indeed, I reckon he’s an investment signing. If he scores 15-20 goals not only will we be comfortably safe but we’ll make a big profit selling him next summer. Hopefully the deal will be heavily performance based - fee greatly reduced unless he plays /scores/ getsus up the table

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Re: Are we screwed?

by windermereROYAL » 07 Aug 2019 09:15

paddy20 Just as we thought we were getting to grips with FFP everything seems to have been turned on its head. Will Howe enlighten us or are we just going for points and accepting a 9 pt deduction as inevitable anyway so lets make it worthwhile.


9 points is not carved in stone, could be more if the league deem we`ve done it purposely.

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Re: Are we screwed?

by Nameless » 07 Aug 2019 09:18

windermereROYAL
paddy20 Just as we thought we were getting to grips with FFP everything seems to have been turned on its head. Will Howe enlighten us or are we just going for points and accepting a 9 pt deduction as inevitable anyway so lets make it worthwhile.


9 points is not carved in stone, could be more if the league deem we`ve done it purposely.


If Birmingham only got 9 then we’d need to be doing a lot more to get more than that. Their breach was as deliberate as you can get.

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