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linkenholtroyal
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by linkenholtroyal » 23 Jan 2020 11:19

Someone was mentioning on another thread that we should be beating teams like Forest so I thought I would have a look at our recent relative form and how that may affect things going forward it is only when you look back at the last 5 games you realise we really have been in a purple patch and on paper it should get easier as the season goes on from this point.

In the last block of five we have played Forest x2 (4th), Milwall (8th), Fulham (3rd) and PNE (6th) we have achieved 8 points over this period (1.6ppg) with an average current league position of 5th from our opponents.

In blocks of 5 till the end of the season.

Average 9th
Bristol 9th, Cardiff 13th, Hull 12th, WBA 1st and Wednesday 10th.

Average 19th
Leeds 2nd, Wigan 23rd, Barnsley 22nd, Brum 18th and Stoke 21st

Average 17th
Derby 16th, Brentford 5th, Luton town 24th, Huddersfield 20th and Charlton 19th

Final 3 average 11th
Middlesborough 17th, 11th and 7th.

so realistically on paper it should get easier as the season goes on and it is marathon not a sprint the comment of 'We should be beating tinpot teams like forest' actually over the last 5 game period we have had a good points average with teams fighting in the play off spots.

Realistically if our form continues of this ilk on paper atleast we should be looking to a strong finish till the end of the season I* am not saying play offs but we could be there or there abouts.

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Hendo
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Re: Form

by Hendo » 23 Jan 2020 11:23

Is this a rumour? :?

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linkenholtroyal
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Re: Form

by linkenholtroyal » 23 Jan 2020 11:25

Hendo Is this a rumour? :?

Bum pressed wrong one I have never done that before can I change it or does admin have to do it....

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Hendo
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Re: Form

by Hendo » 23 Jan 2020 11:31

linkenholtroyal
Hendo Is this a rumour? :?

Bum pressed wrong one I have never done that before can I change it or does admin have to do it....


Admin will come along and move it :)

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Re: Form

by NewCorkSeth » 23 Jan 2020 11:48

Sign him up.


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Re: Form

by WestYorksRoyal » 23 Jan 2020 12:07

If you look at our past 5, what was the average? Preston, Fulham, Forest x2 and Millwall. 4 away, 1 at home. 8 points is a cracking return.

Playoff push unlikely; we've left ourselves too much. But we should be picking up plenty of points from late Feb onwards.

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linkenholtroyal
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Re: Form

by linkenholtroyal » 23 Jan 2020 12:46

WestYorksRoyal If you look at our past 5, what was the average? Preston, Fulham, Forest x2 and Millwall. 4 away, 1 at home. 8 points is a cracking return.

Playoff push unlikely; we've left ourselves too much. But we should be picking up plenty of points from late Feb onwards.

Average was 1.6PPG even with on paper worse opposition if we averaged the same till the end of the season that would be 29 points till the end of the season, 65 points overall probably somewhere around 9th-12th.

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Re: Form

by WestYorksRoyal » 23 Jan 2020 12:55

linkenholtroyal
WestYorksRoyal If you look at our past 5, what was the average? Preston, Fulham, Forest x2 and Millwall. 4 away, 1 at home. 8 points is a cracking return.

Playoff push unlikely; we've left ourselves too much. But we should be picking up plenty of points from late Feb onwards.

Average was 1.6PPG even with on paper worse opposition if we averaged the same till the end of the season that would be 29 points till the end of the season, 65 points overall probably somewhere around 9th-12th.

Interesting. 75 is typical playoff benchmark, which would require 2.1667 a game. Feels very unlikely.

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Form

by Jagermesiter1871 » 23 Jan 2020 13:29

Sorry for creating you all this work linken. In my defense I was taking the piss when I said forest are tinpot and we should be beating them.


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Re: Form

by andrew1957 » 23 Jan 2020 13:33

I think we need to win the next two against Bristol and Cardiff to start looking like potential play off material.

43 points after 30 games and then 32 off the last 16 is doable (10 wins 2 draws and 4 defeats would do) as we have many games against lower ranked sides in the last 16 games.

Also 9 of the last 16 games are at home.

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Stranded
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Re: Form

by Stranded » 23 Jan 2020 13:56

andrew1957 I think we need to win the next two against Bristol and Cardiff to start looking like potential play off material.

43 points after 30 games and then 32 off the last 16 is doable (10 wins 2 draws and 4 defeats would do) as we have many games against lower ranked sides in the last 16 games.

Also 9 of the last 16 games are at home.


Yes think next 2 games are key if we are going to turn the long shot of a play off push into something more tangible.

Realistically - 6 points next week will see us jump up to 11th or 12th - which would feel like a mental barrier broken but we could still be 8 or 9 points adrift.

If we are going to get anywhere near, then home form is going to be massive. As of now we have 10 at Home and 8 away to go.

We need to go a minimum W7 D2 L1 at home to get close - so 23pts and that would still need us to get 15/24 away (W4 D3 L1 or W5 L3) - its an absolute longshot and if we were somehow to do it, we would probably be favourites in many eyes to win the thing.

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linkenholtroyal
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Re: Form

by linkenholtroyal » 23 Jan 2020 14:55

Jagermesiter1871 Sorry for creating you all this work linken. In my defense I was taking the piss when I said forest are tinpot and we should be beating them.

Its ok I weirdly enjoyed it thanks though anyway.

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John Smith
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Re: Form

by John Smith » 23 Jan 2020 16:08

Saw this on Twitter (in the first week of Jan, so three of the fixtures are now played), however I thought it was an interesting visual for the whole league:



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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Form

by Snowflake Royal » 23 Jan 2020 17:29

Worth remembering that as we get to the business end of the season several of the bottom teams usually put together improved performance to draw clear... so those can have a pretty good banana skin potential.

Whereas there can be an element of on the beach in the middle or choke at the top.

In other words it's a wickedly, brilliantly, unpredictable division.

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Re: Form

by andrew1957 » 23 Jan 2020 18:17

John Smith Saw this on Twitter (in the first week of Jan, so three of the fixtures are now played), however I thought it was an interesting visual for the whole league:



That looks a tad out of date as it seems to include the last three against Forest/Millwall/Forest.

Our next 6 based on current positions would be 9/13/12/1/10/2 for an average of 7.83. We really are having an incredibly tough run of games.

By the time we have played the next 6 that will make it 12 games in a row against the sides in the current top 14 places.

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John Smith
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Re: Form

by John Smith » 24 Jan 2020 09:46

andrew1957
John Smith Saw this on Twitter (in the first week of Jan, so three of the fixtures are now played), however I thought it was an interesting visual for the whole league:



That looks a tad out of date as it seems to include the last three against Forest/Millwall/Forest.

Our next 6 based on current positions would be 9/13/12/1/10/2 for an average of 7.83. We really are having an incredibly tough run of games.

By the time we have played the next 6 that will make it 12 games in a row against the sides in the current top 14 places.

Did you not read my post? The bit that said that three of the fixtures have now been played? Have you been away for 6 months? Is your head in the sand? Are you an ostrich?

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Re: Form

by andrew1957 » 24 Jan 2020 10:55

John Smith
andrew1957
John Smith Saw this on Twitter (in the first week of Jan, so three of the fixtures are now played), however I thought it was an interesting visual for the whole league:



That looks a tad out of date as it seems to include the last three against Forest/Millwall/Forest.

Our next 6 based on current positions would be 9/13/12/1/10/2 for an average of 7.83. We really are having an incredibly tough run of games.

By the time we have played the next 6 that will make it 12 games in a row against the sides in the current top 14 places.

Did you not read my post? The bit that said that three of the fixtures have now been played? Have you been away for 6 months? Is your head in the sand? Are you an ostrich?


You are on my ignore list so I just looked at the graphic.

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John Smith
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Re: Form

by John Smith » 24 Jan 2020 10:56

andrew1957
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That looks a tad out of date as it seems to include the last three against Forest/Millwall/Forest.

Our next 6 based on current positions would be 9/13/12/1/10/2 for an average of 7.83. We really are having an incredibly tough run of games.

By the time we have played the next 6 that will make it 12 games in a row against the sides in the current top 14 places.

Did you not read my post? The bit that said that three of the fixtures have now been played? Have you been away for 6 months? Is your head in the sand? Are you an ostrich?


You are on my ignore list so I just looked at the graphic.

Why did you just reply to that then Andrew. Very daft lie. You're being very silly.

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Re: Form

by URZZZZ » 24 Jan 2020 12:08

andrew1957 I think we need to win the next two against Bristol and Cardiff to start looking like potential play off material.

43 points after 30 games and then 32 off the last 16 is doable (10 wins 2 draws and 4 defeats would do) as we have many games against lower ranked sides in the last 16 games.

Also 9 of the last 16 games are at home.


I think we'll beat Bristol but Cardiff have only lost at home once all season and that was Warnock's last game so will be a difficult one to get three points there

But, looking at the fixtures for the next few days, the only teams who are three games distance ahead of us (around the PO) are Preston, Bristol, Millwall and Swansea. In the next batch of fixtures, Preston aren't playing, Millwall are at Leeds and Swansea are at Stoke. So I doubt either Swansea or Millwall will win their respective games

Meaning if we do manage to beat Bristol and then Cardiff, for a brief period of time we will only be 3 points off 6th

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