Coronavirus outbreak

1108 posts
elrey
Member
Posts: 167
Joined: 29 Oct 2005 12:45

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by elrey » 15 Mar 2020 10:56

Franchise FC
elrey
One87One
90,000 die every year from the Flu, but please do keep buying into the fear-mongering being peddled left and right.


And 2 million could die of this.
At 6% or 7% as Wuhan and Italy have seen, and 60% get it, like Boris wants, that's 2 million dead.

Eases the ultimate pressure on public services :wink:


Also saves on pensions, the Tory dream. Except when they find out the majority of dead people voted Tory.

elrey
Member
Posts: 167
Joined: 29 Oct 2005 12:45

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by elrey » 15 Mar 2020 10:58

Snowball
elrey
One87One
90,000 die every year from the Flu, but please do keep buying into the fear-mongering being peddled left and right.


And 2 million could die of this.
At 6% or 7% as Wuhan and Italy have seen, and 60% get it, like Boris wants, that's 2 million dead.


The government say it is their intent to go for herd-immunity. That is 60% or more of the population to get it.

Stick with the lowest-possible number = 60%

The population is 63 Million

60% of that is 37,800,000

The current worldwide rate of deaths per confirmed infections is 3.7%. Italy and China are much higher.

Weighed against this is a POSSIBLE (no-one actually KNOWS) 9-10 times the official number
with it but not on the books as official cases. So say, for example, the UK's 1100 official cases
"actually means there are 11,000 with the virus, and so far, "only 21 dead"

Basically divide the Wuhan/China rate (average say 7% by 11 = 0.636%

NOTHING, right?

0.636% of 37,800,000 is 240,048

240,048 UK Dead is for just 60% getting it, with an overall death rate of under 0.7% (under 1%)

The Govt were saying 80% might get it (50,400,000) and WHO thinks the overall
death rate may well be 1-2%

1% is over half a million UK dead.

2% is a million UK dead


Yes, 2 million is probably a high percentage. It depends on how seriously people take their own health and ignore the government.

I live in a region bigger than the UK and only 3 deaths. Then again people were told they could go out once a day at one point.

User avatar
Snowflake Royal
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 12558
Joined: 20 Jun 2017 17:51

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowflake Royal » 15 Mar 2020 11:30

Hound
Snowflake Royal
Nameless Sorry, but this is becoming utterly counter productive and this thread is now officially off limits.
Guessing at numbers and outcomes by those with no actual knowledge doesn’t help.
Extrapolating using an obvious preexisting bias doesn’t help.
I can understand that it could get bad but I reckon some people are talking themselves into a breakdown, which helps no one.
I’m going to do sensible stuff to keep me and my family as safe as possible, with the add on that that will also help the wider community.
But constantly calculating and publishing guesses about death rates to several decimal places is not what I want to read several times a day.
Hopefully we can all get back to talking football on this football forum when the new season starts.
I hope everyone stays healthy and we don’t see the worst outcomes some are suggesting are inevitable.
In the meantime for the sake of my sanity as much as anything I’m going to isolate myself from this thread.

+1, there's a massive thread on AE about it, we don't need another one here.


Not like there is any ‘team’ stuff to talk about for the foreseeable though is it?

Countdown to Leeds being robbed of promotion / spared the ignominy of choking again?

SCIAG
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4797
Joined: 17 Jun 2008 17:43
Location: Liburd for England

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 15 Mar 2020 11:53

Snowball
sandman Wish some people would understand that this is NOT oxf*rd "scaremongering".

This is real, it is dangerous for us all and it is only going to get worse.



THANK-you, Sandman

I am not even SLIGHTLY “scaremongering”

As for stats, the bigger the population, the more real stats become. I post the stats CURRENTLY IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN

You can see the infections/Deaths in Italy, for example. There is no “interpretation” involved. They only conjecture is the relationship between confirmed cases and those people who are symptomless or have mild symptoms and haven’t “officially” been recorded with CV19

It may be 1:3, 1:5, 1:10 but I don’t think ANY expert has suggest 1 in 10

Nobody (probably under orders) is extrapolating the POSSIBLE total deaths

We had 60-100 Million deaths in 1918-19 when the world population was two billion and other than soldiers, there was very little international travel.

I am not remotely scared OR scare-mongering. If I get it I get it, if I die, I die.

If I die of CV19 I won’t get cancer.

But this, IMO, is the biggest thing we have ever seen. 2008 will be a blip. 9/11 a hiccup in comparison.

One thing though. Has the Chinese infection rate just STOPPED? Why? how?

How many goals per minute would the coronvirus get in League One?

User avatar
Snowflake Royal
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 12558
Joined: 20 Jun 2017 17:51

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowflake Royal » 15 Mar 2020 12:58

SCIAG
Snowball
sandman Wish some people would understand that this is NOT oxf*rd "scaremongering".

This is real, it is dangerous for us all and it is only going to get worse.



THANK-you, Sandman

I am not even SLIGHTLY “scaremongering”

As for stats, the bigger the population, the more real stats become. I post the stats CURRENTLY IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN

You can see the infections/Deaths in Italy, for example. There is no “interpretation” involved. They only conjecture is the relationship between confirmed cases and those people who are symptomless or have mild symptoms and haven’t “officially” been recorded with CV19

It may be 1:3, 1:5, 1:10 but I don’t think ANY expert has suggest 1 in 10

Nobody (probably under orders) is extrapolating the POSSIBLE total deaths

We had 60-100 Million deaths in 1918-19 when the world population was two billion and other than soldiers, there was very little international travel.

I am not remotely scared OR scare-mongering. If I get it I get it, if I die, I die.

If I die of CV19 I won’t get cancer.

But this, IMO, is the biggest thing we have ever seen. 2008 will be a blip. 9/11 a hiccup in comparison.

One thing though. Has the Chinese infection rate just STOPPED? Why? how?

How many goals per minute would the coronvirus get in League One?

350


2 world wars, 1 world cup
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5317
Joined: 16 Jul 2004 18:36
Location: Shite little island soon to be sick man of Europe again and claim our rightful place as USA's bitch.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by 2 world wars, 1 world cup » 15 Mar 2020 16:25

Excuse the omafication but this virus is quite serious. Stay safe.

grey_squirrel
Member
Posts: 904
Joined: 19 May 2011 21:28
Location: Y24

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by grey_squirrel » 15 Mar 2020 17:33

The mortality rate if you are not old, unfit / unhealthy or ill is practically zero.

Stranded
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 11260
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 12:42
Location: Propping up the bar in the Nags

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Stranded » 15 Mar 2020 18:16

grey_squirrel The mortality rate if you are not old, unfit / unhealthy or ill is practically zero.


Yes but it is not as simple aa live/die. A young healthy person can end up having their life seriously changed if they contracr it.

No-one should panic but take this shit seriously.

User avatar
Zip
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 8608
Joined: 30 Dec 2017 16:39

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Zip » 15 Mar 2020 18:22

Stranded
grey_squirrel The mortality rate if you are not old, unfit / unhealthy or ill is practically zero.


Yes but it is not as simple aa live/die. A young healthy person can end up having their life seriously changed if they contracr it.

No-one should panic but take this shit seriously.


Especially as the mortality rate is so high for elderly people and this virus is so contagious.


SCIAG
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4797
Joined: 17 Jun 2008 17:43
Location: Liburd for England

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 15 Mar 2020 19:41

Snowflake Royal
SCIAG
Snowball

THANK-you, Sandman

I am not even SLIGHTLY “scaremongering”

As for stats, the bigger the population, the more real stats become. I post the stats CURRENTLY IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN

You can see the infections/Deaths in Italy, for example. There is no “interpretation” involved. They only conjecture is the relationship between confirmed cases and those people who are symptomless or have mild symptoms and haven’t “officially” been recorded with CV19

It may be 1:3, 1:5, 1:10 but I don’t think ANY expert has suggest 1 in 10

Nobody (probably under orders) is extrapolating the POSSIBLE total deaths

We had 60-100 Million deaths in 1918-19 when the world population was two billion and other than soldiers, there was very little international travel.

I am not remotely scared OR scare-mongering. If I get it I get it, if I die, I die.

If I die of CV19 I won’t get cancer.

But this, IMO, is the biggest thing we have ever seen. 2008 will be a blip. 9/11 a hiccup in comparison.

One thing though. Has the Chinese infection rate just STOPPED? Why? how?

How many goals per minute would the coronvirus get in League One?

350

So by my calculations, if we signed COVID-19 and played it up front every minute of every game for the rest of the season, we would score 0 goals.

User avatar
Green
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 12340
Joined: 29 Jun 2012 13:28

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Green » 15 Mar 2020 20:42

CountryRoyal Reckon we will get partial refund on season tickets if the season is abandoned? Or at least reduced season ticket cost for next season *if all this shit is over by then.

Yeh, maybe.

Think I saw a pig flying earlier too.

User avatar
Green
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 12340
Joined: 29 Jun 2012 13:28

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Green » 15 Mar 2020 20:44

Stranded
grey_squirrel The mortality rate if you are not old, unfit / unhealthy or ill is practically zero.


Yes but it is not as simple aa live/die. A young healthy person can end up having their life seriously changed if they contracr it.

No-one should panic but take this shit seriously.

The username is a giveaway for me.

I'm guessing red squirrels were just a bit shit, in that poster's eyes.

User avatar
CountryRoyal
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6725
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 13:44

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by CountryRoyal » 15 Mar 2020 21:38

Green
CountryRoyal Reckon we will get partial refund on season tickets if the season is abandoned? Or at least reduced season ticket cost for next season *if all this shit is over by then.

Yeh, maybe.

Think I saw a pig flying earlier too.


Mmm bacon


User avatar
Snowflake Royal
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 12558
Joined: 20 Jun 2017 17:51

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowflake Royal » 15 Mar 2020 22:57

CountryRoyal
Green
CountryRoyal Reckon we will get partial refund on season tickets if the season is abandoned? Or at least reduced season ticket cost for next season *if all this shit is over by then.

Yeh, maybe.

Think I saw a pig flying earlier too.


Mmm bacon

They might as well keep my money, I haven't bothered with most the winter games anyway.

URZZZZ
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 3621
Joined: 20 Apr 2013 18:30

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by URZZZZ » 15 Mar 2020 23:29

Snowflake Royal
CountryRoyal
Green Yeh, maybe.

Think I saw a pig flying earlier too.


Mmm bacon

They might as well keep my money, I haven't bothered with most the winter games anyway.


At least you may end up saving money on your Charlton top half finish :lol:

Snowball
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 16838
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 18:35

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 16 Mar 2020 05:47

The PHE (Public Health England) briefing fo senior NHS officials
has been leaked. In The Guardian today

1 Predicts up to 7.9 Million may be hospitalised
2 Pandemic likely to be around until Spring 2021 (1 Year +)
3 Up to 80% of UK population likely to be infected
4 May dip for a while in Summer, returning November
5 Best estimates say 10% of critical workers off sick at any one time
6 No more screening
7 Case numbers likely to rise very quickly for 10-14 weeks
8 Half a million UK may die
9 1% mortality rate will mean 531,000 UK deaths
10 0.6% mortality rate would mean 318,660 UK deaths

EDIT: Perspective: 450,000 UK Citizens died in World War II 1939-1945





https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ianTodayUK

Snowball
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 16838
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 18:35

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 16 Mar 2020 06:01

Snowball Wow

Uk deaths jump from 11 to 21 in a single day


and 14 the next

2 world wars, 1 world cup
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5317
Joined: 16 Jul 2004 18:36
Location: Shite little island soon to be sick man of Europe again and claim our rightful place as USA's bitch.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by 2 world wars, 1 world cup » 16 Mar 2020 08:01

It's all a bit annoying really isn't it.

User avatar
Vision
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4331
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 20:53

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Vision » 16 Mar 2020 10:07

SCIAG
Snowflake Royal
SCIAG How many goals per minute would the coronvirus get in League One?

350

So by my calculations, if we signed COVID-19 and played it up front every minute of every game for the rest of the season, we would score 0 goals.


If I were playing against I'd go zonal marking rather than man to man.

windermereROYAL
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 3200
Joined: 19 Feb 2008 11:18

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 16 Mar 2020 10:43

Anybody bored with no sport yet? Christ with pubs potentially closing soon too I might have to lock myself away in a darkened room for a few months.

1108 posts

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 59 guests

It is currently 31 May 2020 01:36