Coronavirus outbreak

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Forbury Lion
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Forbury Lion » 17 Mar 2020 17:30

Snowball
2 world wars, 1 world cup Guys I'm not sure whether to believe this or not but someone who works in the NHS told me the coronavirus thing has all just been a big hoax. It's not actually real and tomorrow they're going to explain at a press conference that it was just a bit of fun and everything will go back to normal.

I know it sounds a bit far fetched but I reckon it's probably true as my friend rarely gets things wrong.




Totally true. Started by the Man United board to stop Liverpool
There's a laughable conspiracy theory that Bill Gates is behind it and that 5G masks were spreading it :lol:

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 17 Mar 2020 17:45

Forbury Lion
Snowball Which is worse 50 Million or FOUR?
Which is worse, 50 million in one hit or 50 million spread over a number of years?

What if 6 months down the road a vaccine is found, what if the government pulled out all the stops to get enough made for everyone who needs it?.... yes it's unlikely, but it may mean those who avoid getting it will get the vaccine first.


You're responding to a different statement.

I was making the point that SARS infected only four people in the UK total.

I was making the point (as has the Chief Scientist) that this is nothing like SARS and far, far worse.

He said this is the greatest crisis in 100 years (careful to NOT mention the 1918 Influenza that killed up to 100 Million)

He ALSO said that after isolation we would expect another surge. He also made the point that despite the social distance stuff etc the numbers should increase for 2.5 to 3 weeks.

One thing that sickened me. He said that the current testing regime would be targeted at hospitals (patients and staff). Then he added that many PRIVATE, commercial outfits were developing tests. Then he added that these private companies would service "community testing" while the current stuff would be reserved for hospitals. He didn't use the actual words but I took him to be implying that "maybe" testing (like mine) would NOT be free. The profiteers are already ramping up.

He also said that 20,000 UK deaths would be a very good result

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 17 Mar 2020 17:52

Confirmed cases are now 24 times the TOTAL for the whole of the SARS pandemic.

Deaths are almost exactly 10 times the SARS total.

The Chief Scientist was saying that the fact many get this virus and don't get major
symptoms is what makes the virus so deadly. They expect the death-rate to be lower
that that for SARS, but the numbers infected, already 24/25 times as many, ultimately
means a much, much higher death toll than SARS.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 17 Mar 2020 18:26

Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowflake Royal » 17 Mar 2020 19:04

Do shut up snowy, you aren't an expert on this.


Bonzodog
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Bonzodog » 17 Mar 2020 19:09

Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores


Why don’t the case fatality ratios add up to 100%?

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Ascotexgunner
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Ascotexgunner » 17 Mar 2020 20:02

More will die of starvation. There's no food anywhere.
Hoarding bastards. Hope they all get it......

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leon
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by leon » 17 Mar 2020 20:52

Snowflake Royal Do shut up snowy, you aren't an expert on this.

:?:

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 17 Mar 2020 21:12

Bonzodog
Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores


Why don’t the case fatality ratios add up to 100%?



Because they don't all die!!

eg (70-79 11.80%) 1 in 8 die, 7 in 8 live!


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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 17 Mar 2020 22:08

Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores


Link to sauce plz

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Royal Rother
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Royal Rother » 17 Mar 2020 22:38

Jagermesiter1871
Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores


Link to sauce plz


I’m 60 this year. Based on those stats I hope I get it before my birthday!

elrey
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by elrey » 17 Mar 2020 23:21

Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores


If you're under 70 then you might not die, but you might give it to someone who will.

windermereROYAL
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 17 Mar 2020 23:35

Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores


Interesting if you are 69 a few months from your 70th birthday it will go up from 3.2% to 11.8%


Aeroguide
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Aeroguide » 18 Mar 2020 01:42

Snowflake Royal Do shut up snowy, you aren't an expert on this.


Snowbollocks..overbearing, arrogant pc scumbag that has it’s head so far up it’s own backside, it cannot and will not see the light for the shite.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 06:31

Jagermesiter1871
Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores


Link to sauce plz


I get a daily update email from Johns Hopkins University and the Italy detail was about a tenth of all the info.

To clarify as some seem to have misread, where for example it says 21.8% death rate for over 90s that means that approx 22% of over 90s confirmed cases have so far died (and 78% so far surviving)

It’s the death/survival stat for each age group NOT “22% of all deaths are 90+ year olds”

Will post cut and paste and URLs when I’m at my desk

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 06:43

Presume you’re joking

Of course mortality rate doesn’t change on a birthday

If a ten year cohort has a 1% chance of dying then the youngest (say 60) will be maybe 0.4% and the 69 year olds will be about 3%, fractionally lower than a 70 year old

There is a similar “dumb effect” in prostate numbers

You’re 69. The doctor gets prostate numbers for you (PSA) with a blood test and you are “at risk” need further checks

Then you celebrate your birthday and you instantly drop to no longer even remotely at risk

March 17 Computer Says Uh-Oh

March 18 Computer says older cohort, numbers fine

Linden Jones' Tash
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Linden Jones' Tash » 18 Mar 2020 07:10

The issue is more than just the specific mortality rate of the virus.

When the number of cases overwhelms the health system and it cannot cope, mortality from everything else goes up.

So if you are under 50 and have something that ordinarily would be managed by a hospital, chances are the management will be sub optimal.

Reducing transmission to suppress the virus is the only strategy until there is a vaccine.

Its going to impact every generation

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 07:15

Jagermesiter1871
Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores




Link to sauce plz






Link to JHU

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu

That's the home page, there's a direct link to map and numbers "The Map"

There is a box on the main page for "Get Daily Updates". A heavily-packed email
with lots of official data. Very Very Good resource


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

This(numbers-wise) tends to lag by up to 24 Hours. I can see that because UK numbers lag

I keep a spreadsheet of the numbers but have a column that excludes the Chinese 81K

With the Chinese numbers currently static due to 99.9% shut-down, it "softens" what
is happening in the rest of the world.

So I say the world growth in cases, but separately can see the EuropeanN-S America/African stuff too

Some huge differences. It will be a while before we see if that is a reporting issue, a treatment issue,
or some racial immunity thing (which I doubt). Russia, for example seems virtually not to be getting it,
or having deaths. BUT PRESUME THEY ARE NOT COLLECTING DATA OR NOT REPORTING IT)

A laughable 114 cases, no deaths according to official statistics. They have 144-147 million depending
on whether you include Crimea, so "pro-rata should be somewhere around 5000 Cases 130 deaths
if as UK...

CUT and PASTE on Italy


Italy’s National Institute of Health is publishing daily COVID-19 data updates. The March 16 update reports 25,058 cases—including 2,339 healthcare workers—and 1,697 deaths nationwide. The case fatality ratio for individuals 90 years and older is 21.6%, 18.8% 80-89 years, 11.8% for 70-79 years, and 3.2% for 60-69 years. The CFR is 1% for individuals 50-59 years and 0.3% or less for all younger age ranges. Notably, nearly 75% of reported cases are individuals over the age of 50, including 37.4% over the age of 70. Only 1.1% of cases have been reported in individuals 18 years and younger. Based on data from 8,802 of Italy's cases, 6.5% were reported as asymptomatic and a total of 58.8% had mild or very mild disease or no symptoms.
Last edited by Snowball on 18 Mar 2020 07:24, edited 1 time in total.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 07:21

Linden Jones' Tash The issue is more than just the specific mortality rate of the virus.

When the number of cases overwhelms the health system and it cannot cope, mortality from everything else goes up.

So if you are under 50 and have something that ordinarily would be managed by a hospital, chances are the management will be sub optimal.

Reducing transmission to suppress the virus is the only strategy until there is a vaccine.

Its going to impact every generation



Absolutely. Very good point.

Further we can add such troubles as maintaining policing, fire, sewage systems, water supplies, HEALTH-CARE, HM Forces, Electricity, Gas as workers in these areas get sick.

This is Good


https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR ... ks6Nq7g6P4

Linden Jones' Tash
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Linden Jones' Tash » 18 Mar 2020 07:32

Assuming you are under 50 and don't have an elderly relative you might transmit it to,

Or have asthma or another chronic condition,

Or a BMI over 40,

If you need hospital care from next week onwards, it will be sub optimal as the system gets overwhelmed by respiratory cases,

Don't wait to practice social distancing and reduce transmission

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