Coronavirus outbreak

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Mid Sussex Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Mid Sussex Royal » 23 Mar 2020 19:21

The problem with stats is they generally relate to past events ie HISTORY.

And there is no history to this virus either....

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 23 Mar 2020 19:41

Mid Sussex Royal The problem with stats is they generally relate to past events ie HISTORY.

And there is no history to this virus either....




Oh, come on, MSR, mate, this is real-time stuff, and we know the science of infection-spread

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 23 Mar 2020 20:01

My sister was in Sydney, Australia for 4 weeks at my brother's

They set off back (Emirates) got to Dubai but Emirates then stopped operating.

Next flight is (hopefully) Tuesday, late.

They are not allowed out of the airport building (14 day quarantine if they exit)
and all lounges closed.

Meanwhile in Oz, like here, pubs and restaurants closed and heavy lock down for all.

Not sure if anyone spotted it, but my bro and his husband were involved in a disgusting
deliberate cough-in-yer-face scene. My bro was the unlucky sod who received the cough

There are some really, REALLY shitty people in the world.

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krapmle
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by krapmle » 23 Mar 2020 20:09

Germany has 5 times more infected persons than us but one third the deaths.
What does that tell us considering we haven't reached icu overload yet?

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Franchise FC
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Franchise FC » 23 Mar 2020 20:11

krapmle Germany has 5 times more infected persons than us but one third the deaths.
What does that tell us considering we haven't reached icu overload yet?

Germans have better immune systems


Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 23 Mar 2020 21:08

krapmle Germany has 5 times more infected persons than us but one third the deaths.
What does that tell us considering we haven't reached icu overload yet?


It is down, solely, to how the Germans have tested. They have tested far higher numbers, and, because of this, the mean age of their positives is low-40’s

It’s as simple as that. Older people have a much worse death-rate

To explain the above, if we had a perfect test and tested every single UK person we would log all the under 16s with CV19 but no symptoms, all the 16-30 olds with very mild or mild symptoms, and so on

The wider the search for infected, the lower the apparent death rate.

If you only tested dead people the rate would be 100%

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... e-low.html


EDIT
I should dd that when the UK switched to only testing symptomatic/hospitalised cases
we further biased our count toward sick people.

Linden Jones' Tash
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Linden Jones' Tash » 24 Mar 2020 08:11

Germany has 3 X more ICU beds per head of population than the UK also

Barney
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Barney » 24 Mar 2020 09:16

Linden Jones' Tash Germany has 3 X more ICU beds per head of population than the UK also


Is that because they put towels on them ?

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Hendo
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hendo » 24 Mar 2020 09:22

Barney
Linden Jones' Tash Germany has 3 X more ICU beds per head of population than the UK also


Is that because they put towels on them ?


Shameful chuckle.


Barney
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Barney » 24 Mar 2020 09:39

Hendo
Barney
Linden Jones' Tash Germany has 3 X more ICU beds per head of population than the UK also


Is that because they put towels on them ?


Shameful chuckle.


Cheers Hendo. I was just trying to bring a tiny bit of humour to, I know, what is a horrible and serious situation.

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Hendo
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hendo » 24 Mar 2020 10:05

Barney
Hendo
Barney
Is that because they put towels on them ?


Shameful chuckle.


Cheers Hendo. I was just trying to bring a tiny bit of humour to, I know, what is a horrible and serious situation.


Absolutely, nothing wrong with a bit of light humour to brighten up these dark days.

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John Madejski's Wallet
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by John Madejski's Wallet » 24 Mar 2020 11:16

Barney
Linden Jones' Tash Germany has 3 X more ICU beds per head of population than the UK also


Is that because they put towels on them ?


Wasted on the team board :lol:

:arrow: AE

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 24 Mar 2020 11:32

Linden Jones' Tash Germany has 3 X more ICU beds per head of population than the UK also


I know Germany's healthcare is essentially private similar to the US setup although subsidised and far more reasonably priced. Is that compared to the UK's ICU beds at just NHS hospitals or private as well, which have now been taken over by the NHS?


2 world wars, 1 world cup
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by 2 world wars, 1 world cup » 24 Mar 2020 11:50

Please everyone be respectful in times like this and let's not mention the war.

Nomad_Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Nomad_Royal » 24 Mar 2020 11:59

Jagermesiter1871
Linden Jones' Tash Germany has 3 X more ICU beds per head of population than the UK also


I know Germany's healthcare is essentially private similar to the US setup although subsidised and far more reasonably priced. Is that compared to the UK's ICU beds at just NHS hospitals or private as well, which have now been taken over by the NHS?


I am not sure that is completely accurate. I think it is a bit of both with a public part paid for by contributions from everyone (so there is treatment for all) and patients are able to top up insurance coverage themselves with private companies.

I am sure there are others here who can provide further information if I am mistaken.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 12:48

Germany has had a far more liberal testing regime than the UK

In the UK you could get tests if

You were returning from a Level 1 danger area
You were returning from a Level 2 danger area and had symptoms
You had had contact with a known Coronavirus carrier

Anyone who has been through the 111 triage system will know
that you have to get through two screening levels just to be
allowed to talk to a clinician who rings you.

Then, IF the clinician deems you a near-enough possible s/he
arranges for the nearest testing hospital to ring YOU and set
a fixed appointment. Your age/vulnerability is considered

So, basically they are (or were) blocking people with sniffles
many of which may well have been suffering mild symptoms
of Covid-19.

The easier you make it for people to take the tests the more likely
you will get hits from younger people and people with mild Covid

They age-bracket for German cases is a lot lower than the UK, hence
a lower death rate.

I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as
other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is
likely to approach .5 to 1%
Last edited by Snowball on 24 Mar 2020 15:40, edited 1 time in total.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 13:18

Germany?


There is no cure for this virus, but obviously better care gives more people a
better chance of staying alive long enough for the body to beat the virus

However there is a column below that seems to indicate that Germany,
so far is not getting so many serious cases

39,673 - - - 2,355 Serious/Critical Cases - - - 849 Cases per Million - - Spain

30,344 - - - 0,023 Serious/Critical Cases - - - 362 Cases per Million - - Germany


Note that Spain is reporting under 40,000 Cases but on top of deaths has 2,355 patients who are serious or critical

Germany with 76% of Spain's number has just TWENTY-THREE serious/critical cases

That is Spain has 102 times as many serious cases as Spain

23 Cases? Pro-Rata it would be about 1,800

That is little to do with better beds or more beds but more to do with the severity of the infection

The last column is interesting. Countries are rising up the table for number of cases
per million population. Looks like many should expect to reach at least 1,000 as Spain
will very shortly

5,511 San Marino
2,497 Faero Islands
2,123 Andorra
1,723 Iceland
1,398 Luxembourg
1,338 Lichenstein
1,057 Italy <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
1,053 Switzerland <<<<<<<<<<<<<
0,849 Spain <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

0,139 USA
0,098 UK

We can see that the UK and USA are, ATM, as much as a tenth of the way

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leon
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by leon » 24 Mar 2020 14:28

John Madejski's Wallet
Barney
Linden Jones' Tash Germany has 3 X more ICU beds per head of population than the UK also


Is that because they put towels on them ?


Wasted on the team board :lol:

:arrow: AE


tbf I reposted it on AE

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 24 Mar 2020 14:30

Is there a difference in what is deemed critical?

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 15:06

Jagermesiter1871 Is there a difference in what is deemed critical?



No idea. Some of the data-collectors say serious/critical but still lump them together

But to say only 23 are serious or critical sounds bizarre

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