Coronavirus outbreak

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Simmops
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Simmops » 24 Mar 2020 15:12

Snowball Germany has had a far more liberal testing regime than the UK

In the UK you could get tests if

You were returning from a Level 1 danger area
You were returning from a Level 2 danger area and had system
You had had contact with a known Coronavirus carrier

Anyone who has been through the 111 triage system will know
that you have to get through two screening levels just to be
allowed to talk to a clinician who rings you.

Then, IF the clinician deems you a near-enough possible s/he
arranges for the nearest testing hospital to ring YOU and set
a fixed appointment. Your age/vulnerability is considered

So, basically they are (or were) blocking people with sniffles
many of which may well have been suffering mild symptoms
of Covid-19.

The easier you make it for people to take the tests the more likely
you will get hits from younger people and people with mild Covid

They age-bracket for German cases is a lot lower than the UK, hence
a lower death rate.

I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as
other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is
likely to approach .5 to 1%



why are you writing like that? it is very odd.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 15:39

Simmops
Snowball Germany has had a far more liberal testing regime than the UK

In the UK you could get tests if

You were returning from a Level 1 danger area
You were returning from a Level 2 danger area and had system
You had had contact with a known Coronavirus carrier

Anyone who has been through the 111 triage system will know
that you have to get through two screening levels just to be
allowed to talk to a clinician who rings you.

Then, IF the clinician deems you a near-enough possible s/he
arranges for the nearest testing hospital to ring YOU and set
a fixed appointment. Your age/vulnerability is considered

So, basically they are (or were) blocking people with sniffles
many of which may well have been suffering mild symptoms
of Covid-19.

The easier you make it for people to take the tests the more likely
you will get hits from younger people and people with mild Covid

They age-bracket for German cases is a lot lower than the UK, hence
a lower death rate.

I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as
other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is
likely to approach .5 to 1%



why are you writing like that? it is very odd.


What, in English?

Simmops
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Simmops » 24 Mar 2020 15:41

Snowball
Simmops
Snowball Germany has had a far more liberal testing regime than the UK

In the UK you could get tests if

You were returning from a Level 1 danger area
You were returning from a Level 2 danger area and had system
You had had contact with a known Coronavirus carrier

Anyone who has been through the 111 triage system will know
that you have to get through two screening levels just to be
allowed to talk to a clinician who rings you.

Then, IF the clinician deems you a near-enough possible s/he
arranges for the nearest testing hospital to ring YOU and set
a fixed appointment. Your age/vulnerability is considered

So, basically they are (or were) blocking people with sniffles
many of which may well have been suffering mild symptoms
of Covid-19.

The easier you make it for people to take the tests the more likely
you will get hits from younger people and people with mild Covid

They age-bracket for German cases is a lot lower than the UK, hence
a lower death rate.

I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as
other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is
likely to approach .5 to 1%



why are you writing like that? it is very odd.


What, in English?


:|

no, in weird columns, fonts and 3 lines each.

it is super hard to read

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Wycombe Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Wycombe Royal » 24 Mar 2020 15:51

Its a poem

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 16:25

Wycombe Royal It's a poem



Well, it it is, it's not winning prizes any time soon.


Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 16:28

Last Nine Days UK

1,543 - - - - 055 - - - - 3.56%
1,950 - - - - 071 - - - - 3.64%
2,626 - - - - 104 - - - - 3.96%
3,269 - - - - 144 - - - - 4.41%
3,983 - - - - 177 - - - - 4.44%
5,018 - - - - 233 - - - - 4.64%
5,683 - - - - 281 - - - - 4.94%
6,650 - - - - 335 - - - - 5.04%
8,077 - - - - 422 - - - - 5.22%

In 9 days the mortality rate has increased by almost 50%

We seem to heading the way Italy did, closing on 10%

(of confirmed cases)

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 16:40

Worldwide Numbers

The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) says the coronavirus pandemic is "accelerating".

Speaking at a press briefing in Geneva, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said:

“It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach 100,000 cases,
11 days for the second 100,000 cases,
and just four days for the third 100,000 cases.”
Edit. Less than three days for the next 100,000

18-Mar 11:00 200,000
21-Mar 20:00 300,000 81.0 Hours
24-Mar 16:30 400,000 68.5 Hours

It took just 81 hours to go from 200,000 Cases to 300,000
It took just 69 hours for the next 100,000 Cases

Cases have doubled from 200,000 to 400,000 in 149 Hours

100,000 doubling to 200,000 took 11 Days
200,000 doubling to 400,000 took 6 Days 5 Hours

400,000 to 800,000? Before the End of March?

Freddy
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Freddy » 24 Mar 2020 16:52

Snowball Last Nine Days UK

1,543 - - - - 055 - - - - 3.56%
1,950 - - - - 071 - - - - 3.64%
2,626 - - - - 104 - - - - 3.96%
3,269 - - - - 144 - - - - 4.41%
3,983 - - - - 177 - - - - 4.44%
5,018 - - - - 233 - - - - 4.64%
5,683 - - - - 281 - - - - 4.94%
6,650 - - - - 335 - - - - 5.04%
8,077 - - - - 422 - - - - 5.22%

In 9 days the mortality rate has increased by almost 50%

We seem to heading the way Italy did, closing on 10%

(of confirmed cases)


This isn't really a useful statistic. First of all, there is a difference between a fatality rate and a mortality rate. Second, if you were to try to get a fatality rate, you should probably be comparing deaths with cases from 10+ days ago (as there is a gap between getting the illness and dying). Mostly, as we have restricted testing, these numbers won't make much sense for a while yet.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 18:27

Freddy
Snowball Last Nine Days UK

1,543 - - - - 055 - - - - 3.56%
1,950 - - - - 071 - - - - 3.64%
2,626 - - - - 104 - - - - 3.96%
3,269 - - - - 144 - - - - 4.41%
3,983 - - - - 177 - - - - 4.44%
5,018 - - - - 233 - - - - 4.64%
5,683 - - - - 281 - - - - 4.94%
6,650 - - - - 335 - - - - 5.04%
8,077 - - - - 422 - - - - 5.22%

In 9 days the mortality rate has increased by almost 50%

We seem to heading the way Italy did, closing on 10%

(of confirmed cases)


This isn't really a useful statistic. First of all, there is a difference between a fatality rate and a mortality rate. Second, if you were to try to get a fatality rate, you should probably be comparing deaths with cases from 10+ days ago (as there is a gap between getting the illness and dying). Mostly, as we have restricted testing, these numbers won't make much sense for a while yet.


Which is why I said this rate will increase, probably reaching 9 or 10%

As we progress the Cases-Illnesses-Deaths "in the pipe" will become a smaller proportion
and the growing Mortality rate will slow down, slow down as it approaches (my estimate)
something between 9 and 10%

I'm aware that the current, rolling mortality rate isn't THE rate.

I have been saying so and pointing out that it is climbing as cases "mature"

I guess we could "guess at" an average infection to death time-scale (usually 14 days) and ask
How many Cases were there 14 days ago? and compare that to today's mortalities. Obviously
that will be rough, but over days the variation either way should cancel out. The total cases
will remain accurate as will the recoveries and deaths.

I don't have UK daily new cases before 9 days ago BUT
these numbers are the daily increase in cases x 9% and 10%

037 041 29th
061 068 30th
058 064 31st
064 071 1st April
093 104 2nd April
060 067 3rd April
087 097 4th April
128 143 5th April

They look way too low!

These (below) are the last 9 days' deaths which we would expect to be increasing
for the next 14 days, so taking the new cases for specific days and multiplying
by 9% or 10% don't appear to predict future mortality

16
33
40
37
56
48
54
87

if people reply "Well to pick 14 days is silly" I'd answer
that they are wrong.

For any one day, some might die, say in 10,11,12,13 days, a few in 15, 16, 17 days,
but, presuming mortalities are reasonably consistent this bandwidth would be
cancelled out by underlaps and overlaps from the days before and days after Day X

Just seen that the average from onset of illness to death is 18.5 days


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Royal Rother
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Royal Rother » 24 Mar 2020 19:18

Snowball Germany?


There is no cure for this virus, but obviously better care gives more people a
better chance of staying alive long enough for the body to beat the virus

However there is a column below that seems to indicate that Germany,
so far is not getting so many serious cases

39,673 - - - 2,355 Serious/Critical Cases - - - 849 Cases per Million - - Spain

30,344 - - - 0,023 Serious/Critical Cases - - - 362 Cases per Million - - Germany


Note that Spain is reporting under 40,000 Cases but on top of deaths has 2,355 patients who are serious or critical

Germany with 76% of Spain's number has just TWENTY-THREE serious/critical cases

That is Spain has 102 times as many serious cases as Spain

23 Cases? Pro-Rata it would be about 1,800

That is little to do with better beds or more beds but more to do with the severity of the infection

The last column is interesting. Countries are rising up the table for number of cases
per million population. Looks like many should expect to reach at least 1,000 as Spain
will very shortly

5,511 San Marino
2,497 Faero Islands
2,123 Andorra
1,723 Iceland
1,398 Luxembourg
1,338 Lichenstein
1,057 Italy <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
1,053 Switzerland <<<<<<<<<<<<<
0,849 Spain <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

0,139 USA
0,098 UK

We can see that the UK and USA are, ATM, as much as a tenth of the way


Not sure we can base anything at all on the Serious / Critical Cases stats. U.K. has remained static at 20 since last week which is obviously bullshit. Germany went from 2 on Sunday to 23 yesterday and still 23.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 20:05

Royal Rother

Not sure we can base anything at all on the Serious / Critical Cases stats. U.K. has remained static at 20 since last week which is obviously bullshit. Germany went from 2 on Sunday to 23 yesterday and still 23.



Agreed.

How can we only have 20 Critical Cases and the next day report 87 died?

Unless they are referring to 20 patients, way past the death range
(18.5 days mean) that are still not showing signs of recovery

But agree with you, Mickey Mouse Figure

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 20:09

Food for Thought

With four hours of today (24 March) left

New Cases

42,881 Yesterday
40,608 Today

83,489 New Cases Outside China in 44 Hours
81,171 Total Cases Reported for China in 2020

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krapmle
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by krapmle » 24 Mar 2020 21:39

More people have died after testing positive from coronavirus in Italy than anywhere else in the world - despite the stringent lockdown measures in place.


What does that tell us?


Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 22:14

krapmle
More people have died after testing positive from coronavirus in Italy than anywhere else in the world - despite the stringent lockdown measures in place.


What does that tell us?


Dear Sweet Jesus!

They imposed the lockdown AFTER they had allowed the virus to spread
and they realised what they had done.

How quickly do you think a lockdown works? Thirty-Minutes?

A week, a fortnight?

Do you know anything?

The full lockdown was initiated 10th March. I was in Sicily March 5th and mingling was totally normal, full-on, no lockdown of any kind. That evening I was in Rome, and the airport was busy.

When I was flying from Milan to Catania (Sicily) the first (one) case was announced in Sicily, someone who had been in Northern Italy days before. The day I left there was allegedly a second case in Palermo.

The lockdown started on 10th. There are now 600 cases in Italy. Probably 95-99% of those cases were already "set up". Think, if a person arrives and is contagious (on the second) and infects three people, who a couple days later (4th) have infected 3 each (now 9) and a couple of days later (6th) THEY have infected 3 each (27) and by the 8th that's 81, and by the 10th that's 243, and by the 10th that could be 729, 129 more than the 600 actual.

Add in God knows how many landed in Sicily between 2nd and 5th (and the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th)

So you have, say, 600 cases. THEN you lock-down. A few days later maybe the transmission is much reduced. Say you only have a thousand. It took the Chinese 12 weeks to get on top of their outbreak (if their figures are true).

We have a heavy, heavy lockdown, but hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands are still mingling, going to supermarkets etc.

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 24 Mar 2020 23:00

So really from today on wards we should see some impact of the lock down in Italy?

Even a relatively unstrict lockdown should have a decent impact on numbers, assuming a majority had some level of isolation i.e just going to supermarket and working from home.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 23:32

Jagermesiter1871 So really from today on wards we should see some impact of the lock down in Italy?

Even a relatively unstrict lockdown should have a decent impact on numbers, assuming a majority had some level of isolation i.e just going to supermarket and working from home.



It's only a few days, but, while deaths are rising (infections 18 days ago) there has been a small slowing of new infections. But too early to say, I'd've thought

Last four days

793
650 Drop 1
602 Drop 2 looking promising
743, ah...

If, say we have 599 or better tomorrow, maybe we can start to think the lockdown is working

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 24 Mar 2020 23:47

Today, One Day

45,271 New Cases 2,429 Deaths

That is about 2/3rds of China's total for three months.

IN-ONE-DAY

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Cape Town Royal » 25 Mar 2020 04:09

2 world wars, 1 world cup Please everyone be respectful in times like this and let's not mention the war.


I agree, but to be fair they did do a lot of medical research in the early 1940's...

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Cape Town Royal » 25 Mar 2020 04:10

Hendo
Barney
Linden Jones' Tash Germany has 3 X more ICU beds per head of population than the UK also


Is that because they put towels on them ?


Shameful chuckle.


Apologies from me too... I did have a little giggle at that one...

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Cape Town Royal » 25 Mar 2020 04:32

[quote="Snowball"][quote="Jagermesiter1871"]So really from today on wards we should see some impact of the lock down in Italy?

Yes, what's scary though as Italy might start to slow look at the numbers coming out of Spain (Spanish death rate yesterday was not far off Italy's) and the US...

Also slightly concerned about countries with high populations with large poor populations living in close proximity to each other, over here in Asia, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines and then further afield like Pakistan, Brazil, Mexico and India.. All their numbers are starting to increase and if it took off in those countries you could see high death rates of those infected...

Over here in Japan, still life continues minimal visible impact. The Olymoics have rightly been postponed, but other things are starting to re-open. For example the private art gallery my wife works in took the decision two days ago to actually opening its new exhibition next week which she is worried about especially as its in Arashiyama, Kyoto which is a magnet for tourists. The only good thing at the moment is there aren't that many here... But given that people are freely moving around you wonder if the opening of places like that and others will lead to an increase in infections..

For me when I am in the supermarket I get a few looks as a westerner and one or two people go to turn into the aisle I am in, look at me and then dart off to a different one, which is quite amusing. Its mainly old people and the Japanese are naturally cautious, but its interesting being a western looking foreigner here at the moment and watching the different reactions that brings out in people..

Stay healthy everyone...

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