Coronavirus outbreak

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krapmle
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by krapmle » 25 Mar 2020 19:14

Hendo
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Thankyou for summarising your ‘arguement’ so we don’t have to waste time with it.
The internet is full of scientific explanation of why this is not just like seasonal flu.
You seem to be in a minority of 2 and when the other one is Trump you know you are in trouble.
It’s a sad reflection when someone feels the need to troll something as serious as this....


you need to read but more importantly understand what I am saying. My comments aren't even close to Trumps.
1.8 million children under 5 die each year.
Corona virus 20,000


So we just leave it right? Loads more people die, loads more people get infected and hospitalised, people who should then be hospitalised (through non-corona reasons) die because there aren’t enough beds and the health service is overloaded, when those people could be saved. It isn’t people passing away because corona that are giving the government a massive headache (I’d suggest it’s still quite a large one), it’s 6-10 months down the line when people who would otherwise have been fine with normal hospitalisation start dying.

Someone has a heart attack or a stroke, they might have a really good chance at surviving normally, but with beds all gone with everyone who has Coronavirus, it could drop drastically.


Its quite amazing how people put words in mouths.
But you ignore 1.8 million kids dying
you ignore 3 million deaths from lung virus's
you ignore 400,000 annual deaths from flu
you probably say oxf*rd off when I knock on your door asking for 2 quid to save a child in Africa

even if we did nothing, the death rate would probably not match the others I have mentioned

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 25 Mar 2020 19:30

Don’t feed the troll you losers.

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krapmle
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by krapmle » 25 Mar 2020 19:40

when this is over and the death toll remains well under 500,000 I hope you donate to some worthy causes.
but by then the risk to YOU will be over, so hey ho, back to normal and ignore all the other horrific death rates that could at the very least be reduced if just a few of you would pay attention to something that doesn't affect you directly.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Royal Rother » 25 Mar 2020 19:47

Germany death toll climbing in the last 4 days quite markedly.

9, 23, 33, 48.

Has the traditional kiss greeting in France, Italy and Spain been identified as a contributing factor in the rapid spread in those countries?

Got to be a more efficient way of passing it on than a handshake I’d have thought.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 25 Mar 2020 19:49

krapmle when this is over and the death toll remains well under 500,000 I hope you donate to some worthy causes.
but by then the risk to YOU will be over, so hey ho, back to normal and ignore all the other horrific death rates that could at the very least be reduced


If the death toll remains under 500,000 (it won't) it will only be because we intervened and isolated on mass scale with 1/4 of the world currently in isolation and China having just come out.

This virus has killed at least 20,000 people in 4 months since it first came into existence. This is believing Chinese death stats and bearing in mind they shutdown en mass for 2 months and some to control the spread.

Do you have any grasp on exponential growth? If so you should realise how scary this is.

Additionally much of the southern hemisphere compromising of generally poorer countries with poor healthcare are yet to have started with this virus. Once it reaches there the numbers will be out of control. These countries will also be the ones that pad out your comparative death stats from cause X.
Last edited by Jagermesiter1871 on 25 Mar 2020 19:53, edited 2 times in total.


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krapmle
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by krapmle » 25 Mar 2020 19:52

Jagermesiter1871
krapmle when this is over and the death toll remains well under 500,000 I hope you donate to some worthy causes.
but by then the risk to YOU will be over, so hey ho, back to normal and ignore all the other horrific death rates that could at the very least be reduced


If the death toll remains under 500,000 (it won't) it will only be because we intervened and isolated on mass scale with 1/4 of the world currently in isolation and China having just come out.

This virus has killed at 20,000 people in 4 months since it first came into existence. This is believing Chinese death stats and bearing in mind they shutdown en mass for 2 months and some to control the spread.

Do you have any grasp on exponential growth? If so you should realise how scary this is.


its not scary at all. long way to go to catch up with 1.8 million kids under 5 dying. 37,000 infected in Germany, 200 deaths. Stop scaremongering. Not a big increase at all.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 25 Mar 2020 19:52

krapmle
Jagermesiter1871
krapmle when this is over and the death toll remains well under 500,000 I hope you donate to some worthy causes.
but by then the risk to YOU will be over, so hey ho, back to normal and ignore all the other horrific death rates that could at the very least be reduced


If the death toll remains under 500,000 (it won't) it will only be because we intervened and isolated on mass scale with 1/4 of the world currently in isolation and China having just come out.

This virus has killed at 20,000 people in 4 months since it first came into existence. This is believing Chinese death stats and bearing in mind they shutdown en mass for 2 months and some to control the spread.

Do you have any grasp on exponential growth? If so you should realise how scary this is.


its not scary at all. long way to go to catch up with 1.8 million kids under 5 dying. 37,000 infected in Germany, 200 deaths. Stop scaremongering. Not a big increase at all.


See my edit above. Where does your figure of 1.8 million kids under 5 dying come from?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 25 Mar 2020 19:53

Is it only a quarter of the world on lockdown? India alone is 1/8th and my impression was that basically everywhere was on lockdown now.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by krapmle » 25 Mar 2020 19:54

Jagermesiter1871
krapmle
Jagermesiter1871
If the death toll remains under 500,000 (it won't) it will only be because we intervened and isolated on mass scale with 1/4 of the world currently in isolation and China having just come out.

This virus has killed at 20,000 people in 4 months since it first came into existence. This is believing Chinese death stats and bearing in mind they shutdown en mass for 2 months and some to control the spread.

Do you have any grasp on exponential growth? If so you should realise how scary this is.


its not scary at all. long way to go to catch up with 1.8 million kids under 5 dying. 37,000 infected in Germany, 200 deaths. Stop scaremongering. Not a big increase at all.


See my edit above. Where does your figure of 1.8 million kids under 5 dying come from?


UNICEF


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 25 Mar 2020 19:57

I’m a supporter of effective altruism and think the celebrities donating huge sums to the NHS rather than buying malaria nets are slightly misguided. However, saying “tuberculosis causes x deaths a year so we shouldn’t stop coronavirus” is just transparently stupid and requires no further comment.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hound » 25 Mar 2020 19:58

I do kind of get the point the krapmle is making in a very clumsy fashion

Solely from statistics and taken without emotion, it does seem a brave response to tank your economy for the number of corona related deaths likely

However it isn’t quite as simple as that - obviously a flood of cases over 3 months would as Hendo mentions have huge knock ons to other patients, and absolutely cripple morale in the NHS and lead to horrific scenes of mass graves etc which would be a political disaster

And that’s without taking the morality of the situation into consideration

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 25 Mar 2020 19:58

krapmle
Jagermesiter1871
krapmle
its not scary at all. long way to go to catch up with 1.8 million kids under 5 dying. 37,000 infected in Germany, 200 deaths. Stop scaremongering. Not a big increase at all.


See my edit above. Where does your figure of 1.8 million kids under 5 dying come from?


UNICEF


Yeh and where do you think the majority of those deaths come from? Italy and Spain? Or countries with atrocious healthcare? Countries which as of yet haven't even started with this virus.

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krapmle
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by krapmle » 25 Mar 2020 20:04

Jagermesiter1871
krapmle
Jagermesiter1871
See my edit above. Where does your figure of 1.8 million kids under 5 dying come from?


UNICEF


Yeh and where do you think the majority of those deaths come from? Italy and Spain? Or countries with atrocious healthcare? Countries which as of yet haven't even started with this virus.


There are obviously some problematic areas but don't be fooled in to thinking we are immune.
Have you ever once in your life even checked the data?


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 25 Mar 2020 20:39

krapmle
Jagermesiter1871
krapmle
UNICEF


Yeh and where do you think the majority of those deaths come from? Italy and Spain? Or countries with atrocious healthcare? Countries which as of yet haven't even started with this virus.


There are obviously some problematic areas but don't be fooled in to thinking we are immune.
Have you ever once in your life even checked the data?


This is just a bizarre logic. What are we even talking about now?

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krapmle
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by krapmle » 25 Mar 2020 20:45

Jagermesiter1871
krapmle
Jagermesiter1871
Yeh and where do you think the majority of those deaths come from? Italy and Spain? Or countries with atrocious healthcare? Countries which as of yet haven't even started with this virus.


There are obviously some problematic areas but don't be fooled in to thinking we are immune.
Have you ever once in your life even checked the data?


This is just a bizarre logic. What are we even talking about now?


we are talking about you consistently spouting un- researched nonsense.
educate yourself.

the only reason most of you are even taking a stance is because you are shit scared of it hitting you directly.
once it disappears the other deaths I mentioned will continue and you will all ignore it because its far away out of sight.

That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona but the fact that millions of others will continue to die needlessly once this is over and you all go back to your me, me, me lives.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 25 Mar 2020 21:06

This is aimed at 1-2 people.

We passed 05,000 deaths at approximately 16:00 Mar 13th
We passed 10,000 deaths at approximately 07:00 Mar 20th DOUBLED in a Week
We passed 20,000 deaths at approximately 16:00 Mar 25th DOUBLED again = Quadrupled

A FOUR-FOLD increase already in just 12 days, and that is WITH lockdowns everywhere with MASSIVE interventions, closed borders etc

If the exponential growth continues we could have double again in 3-4 days, then again 3 days later, 2 Million known to be infected, and "only" 80,000 dead. But exponential growth might well mean a quadrupling of those numbers in 4-5 days.

So we could be seeing, in just 7-9 days SIXTEEN times as many known infections (7.5 Million) and a third of a million deaths

Nine days from now is April 3rd. That is what exponential growth does, and all this is without the disease catching hold in Africa/India etc

Even at the low levels of sickness (the worse cases) many health services are already struggling to cope. If we get another doubling of serious cases the NHS for one WILL NOT cope. Then the death rates from Covid-19 and its complications will rise steeply, deaths of medical staff will rise significantly, deaths from other medical causes will begin to rise.

Try reading in depth about the 1918 Flu. When the world population was a third of now 40-100 Million died.

If this pandemic acted pro-rata then up to 300 Million might die, almost five UKs, or pretty much the equivalent of the population of the USA.

And, as yet, Africa, India, Bangladesh, a lot of South America, Australia, New Zealand are barely nibbling at the virus. If infection rates in the third-world countries hit UK, Spanish or Italian rates, those health systems have no chance at all, and the potential death toll could be of nuclear proportions.

People like Krapmle seem to think that somehow, they are more knowledgeable and well-advised than tens of thousands of Scientists, Professors, PhDs, Economists, epidemiologists, doctors, nurses, consultants...

These governments didn't WANT to lock down. There a probably a billion people who can count better than Krapmle, and they all KNOW how damaging all these lockdowns etc are for the economy. Do some people think the capitalists just thought, "Shit, let's take a break and shut down just for the hell of it!"? No, it's because this is the most immediately serious thing ever to hit this nation and the world in the lifetime of everyone able to read this thread.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 25 Mar 2020 21:15

I should add that we are betting on lockdowns etc slowing the exponential rise, then stopping the rise, then, eventually seeing a decline in daily cases. In the previous post I was trying to illustrate the evil of exponential growth when unchecked. Remember we are seeing this growth despite severe restrictions (which will take 14 days to show their effect).

Without restrictions we could have been revisiting 1918

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krapmle
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by krapmle » 25 Mar 2020 21:17

Snowball I should add that we are betting on lockdowns etc slowing the exponential rise, then stopping the rise, then, eventually seeing a decline in daily cases. In the previous post I was trying to illustrate the evil of exponential growth when unchecked. Remember we are seeing this growth despite severe restrictions (which will take 14 days to show their effect).

Without restrictions we could have been revisiting 1918


you must be having wet dreams with these figures.
Please stop putting words in my mouth.

what do you not understand with "That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona"

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Royals and Racers » 25 Mar 2020 21:18

Latest UK figures
England - 414 deaths
Scotland - 22 deaths
Wales - 22 deaths
Northern Ireland - 7 deaths

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 25 Mar 2020 21:28

I don’t really like your sensationalism Snowball (as I have said a few times) but underneath that, you’re bang on. CORRECTION: your second post mitigates this dramatically.

My only quibbles with your last line:

- There are, I believe, one or two occasional posters on here who were alive for the Battle of Britain, though not sure they were old enough to form memories.

- The AIDS crisis is probably the closest global comparison in our lifetimes. In the UK it has so far killed about 10,000 people, and thankfully that number might never go up. Covid 19 probably won’t match the 35 million global deaths we’ve seen from HIV (and unfortunately that number is still going up) but 10,000 in the UK seems possible.

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