Coronavirus outbreak

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muirinho
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by muirinho » 02 Apr 2020 20:33

andrew1957
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andrew1957
Thank you. But my inadequate brain tells me we will all get exposed to this at some point until herd immunity is achieved. This is not going away for a couple of years lockdown or not.


If you really don't get it why not volunteer in your local hospital as a porter or cleaner? That way you might learn a thing or two and help achieve your own immunity as part of the herd ... or not.


I gladly would if I was not a key worker already. I am aged well over 60 and have recovered from life threatening cancers twice 3 and 17 years ago (and so am probably in a high risk group) but am working normally and so I am practising what I preach, as I am more at risk than those sitting at home. My view is that if your number is up then so be it.



Frankly, if you've got that sort of "don't care, it's all a fuss about nothing" attitude, I hope your key working takes you nowhere near anybody else - whether colleagues or members of the public.

It's all very well, you being a danger to yourself - being a danger to everybody else is a different matter altogether.

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tmesis
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by tmesis » 02 Apr 2020 21:13

Snowball Passed the million mark at 19:02 GMT Thursday April 2nd

1,000,018 Confirmed Cases, 51,354 Deaths, 37,000 Serious or Critical

19.63% of resolved cases were deaths

In contrast, the Diamond Princess has 11 dead from 630 cases, 1.75%

If you say that that figure is probably artificially high because of the age of the average passenger, maybe 1% is more likely, then that could indicate there are maybe 20 times as many people infected in the UK as the stats indicate. Or not.

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Tails
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Tails » 02 Apr 2020 22:29

I don’t hear about so many health professionals dying of the the ‘standard’ flu but we do about Coronavirus, the Italians didn't have a lack of ventilators...until they did lack them. Hospital admissions have been going up - but we’re meant to believe it’s just the flu? Whether you want to count apples or oranges (is it Covid or the cancer that killed someone), the staggering rate of those dying with Covid would put it on a trajectory far greater than that if the standard flu. Are we meant to believe Italy would see 1k people dying of the flu a day in a normal year?

Frankly, I don’t care whether one has fought off cancer several times and if it’s their time, it’s the time. I do care that they are wilfully negligent to those that they do pass on the virus too that end up in critical care or die - those that don’t see it as their time.

The majority of the world see this as a major issue, so to borrow a populist Brexit saying, ‘if it’s the will of the people to isolate’ and therefore you should bloody well isolate.

karbota
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by karbota » 02 Apr 2020 22:31

Snowball Journalist friend of mine tells me that German "Covid deaths" are much higher but appear lower because of their recording methods.

in the UK if someone has underlying weaknesses (Cancer, cancer-recovery, hypertension, heart-disease, COPD etc etc) but get Covid and in the opinion of doctors getting Covid precipitated the death, then it's a Covid death. Whereas, apparently, in Germany, if they have a major illness such as cancer and they die after contracting Covid, the cause of death is being posted as cancer.

Add that (presuming it's true*) to the fact that Germany is testing a far higher proportion of under 50's and their apparent death-rate is explained away.


* The journalist is at a major UK paper and not even remotely a bullshitter. I trust him


The Guardian?.

karbota
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by karbota » 02 Apr 2020 22:36

tmesis
karbota So do you still want open Borders?, the free movement of people?, mass immigration? over population?. Me thinks the times (and mood) are a changing.

What changes to our border policy would you like to see brought in that would have prevented this?


Health checks, holding centres, stricter visa controls.


Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 02 Apr 2020 22:41

tmesis
Snowball Passed the million mark at 19:02 GMT Thursday April 2nd

1,000,018 Confirmed Cases, 51,354 Deaths, 37,000 Serious or Critical

19.63% of resolved cases were deaths

In contrast, the Diamond Princess has 11 dead from 630 cases, 1.75%

If you say that that figure is probably artificially high because of the age of the average passenger, maybe 1% is more likely, then that could indicate there are maybe 20 times as many people infected in the UK as the stats indicate. Or not.


I'm only discussing the world-wide average for confirmed cases because, ATM, it's all we have. I suspect we will need up with something near 1% for all people contracting, but let's not forget that this is TEN times the seasonal-flu death-rate. Then add the fact that Covid19 is also far more transmittable and it's a very dangerous virus. 1% of 7.8 Billion people is a scarily large number

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 02 Apr 2020 22:42

karbota
Snowball Journalist friend of mine tells me that German "Covid deaths" are much higher but appear lower because of their recording methods.

in the UK if someone has underlying weaknesses (Cancer, cancer-recovery, hypertension, heart-disease, COPD etc etc) but get Covid and in the opinion of doctors getting Covid precipitated the death, then it's a Covid death. Whereas, apparently, in Germany, if they have a major illness such as cancer and they die after contracting Covid, the cause of death is being posted as cancer.

Add that (presuming it's true*) to the fact that Germany is testing a far higher proportion of under 50's and their apparent death-rate is explained away.


* The journalist is at a major UK paper and not even remotely a bullshitter. I trust him


The Guardian?.



NO. And that's the last time I will engage with you.

karbota
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by karbota » 02 Apr 2020 22:46

Snowball
karbota
Snowball Journalist friend of mine tells me that German "Covid deaths" are much higher but appear lower because of their recording methods.

in the UK if someone has underlying weaknesses (Cancer, cancer-recovery, hypertension, heart-disease, COPD etc etc) but get Covid and in the opinion of doctors getting Covid precipitated the death, then it's a Covid death. Whereas, apparently, in Germany, if they have a major illness such as cancer and they die after contracting Covid, the cause of death is being posted as cancer.

Add that (presuming it's true*) to the fact that Germany is testing a far higher proportion of under 50's and their apparent death-rate is explained away.


* The journalist is at a major UK paper and not even remotely a bullshitter. I trust him


The Guardian?.



NO. And that's the last time I will engage with you.


So you are Owen Jones !.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 02 Apr 2020 23:37

We had a few posts here about "deaths nursing homes" not being part of official statistics



This is from WorldoMeter

NOTE:

France today reported 884 additional deaths that have occurred in nursing homes over the past days and weeks [source]. The French Government did not include these deaths in their official count, as their count only takes into consideration deaths of hospitalized petients. Following international standards of correct inclusion, our statistics will include these deaths, and will add them to the April 2, 2020 count following the attribution criteria of date of report.

If and when the French government determines and communicates the correct distribution of these additional deaths over time, we will adjust the historical data accordingly. A similar issue took place on February 12, when China reported an additional 13,332 new cases in a single day due to a change in how cases were diagnosed and reported in Hubei.


That 884 was a non-reported number on a base of 4,032. In a flash they added 22% (or, to put it another way they were under=reporting by 18%). Scary. I was told this is happening in Spain and has been happening in the UK, but UK I think said they would be adding these numbers now, just usually in arrears.


Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 00:04

NEW CASES Last 8 days


63,408 - - - 2,882 Deaths
63,489 - - - 3,197 Deaths
68,154 - - - 3,590 Deaths
57,773 - - - 3,063 Deaths
61,563 - - - 3,698 Deaths
73,028 - - - 4,463 Deaths
78,571 - - - 4,785 Deaths
78,911 - - - 6,033 Deaths <<<<<<<<<

Today highest number of cases and highest number of deaths

Deaths more than doubled in 8 Days




Deaths had an 884 upward adjustment as French Nursing Home deaths were added.
Last edited by Snowball on 03 Apr 2020 00:27, edited 1 time in total.

andrew1957
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by andrew1957 » 03 Apr 2020 00:20

I really should have learnt by now that it is impossible to have any sort of reasoned debate on hobnob. Everything you say is twisted and purposely misinterpreted and so after this post I will not comment further on this issue - as it is quite pointless when many of you seem to get your limited pleasure from some sort of weird point scoring.

I have at no point said that I want to catch this disease or that I am not taking sensible precautions - as indeed are all the other key workers I work with. I have at no point said that I am trying to be a danger to those around me. All I have pointed out is that so far the death rate from Covid has been on a par with a normal flu season. Of course this might change. The problem with new virus is that we have no herd immunity and so it will keep coming back until herd immunity is achieved - as it has been with flu. Using flu as an example herd immunity does not mean that no one will catch flu in any given year but that It is hard for the virus to pass widely because many people have some immunity from past exposures. In past new viral outbreaks it has typically taken at least two years for some form of herd immunity to be generated and for the virus to burn out. As a vaccine is most likely 18 months away the Government have a massive decision. Do we have a long lock down to save lives. If they lock down for 6 months or more as has been rumoured at times there will be no economy to reactivate and I suspect we will see hunger, riots and looting as many people run out of hope and money. And so any lock down has by necessity to be brief.

And so my point is that even if we slow exposure now to save the NHS this will only defer the problem to most likely the Autumn when there will be a further outbreak and we will go though the whole cycle again. In the end the only workable option will be for the vulnerable to voluntarily isolate (I really don’t see compulsion being a long term solution) and for the working well to get on with life. Otherwise in my belief the global economy will be toast and many more will die from economic hardship than from the virus.

I said before these are tough decisions for all governments with no good options.

I await the usual sniping, criticism and allegations that I am personally seeking to infect the entire population of the UK just because I have dared to raise concerns about the effectiveness of this lock down.

That’s it from me as I have wasted enough time on this issue, Good luck and I wish you all well.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 00:25

There is very VERY little herd immunity for seasonal-flu.

Immunity to flu rarely lasts more than a year, often less

Seasonal flu viruses mutate. It MIGHT be that having had the flu, you might get that flu, slightly mutated and get a milder illness.

You can get the flu more than once in a single winter season

There are vaccines, annually updated for seasonal flu

================================================

For about the fortieth time, the flattening of the curve is NOT designed to mean less people will get Covid-19. The flattening is to try to prevent very high infection peaks when a LOT of people get Covid at the same time thus making the NHS run out of beds and intensive care gear.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 00:29

Snowball


BTW the modelling predicted 770-790,000 at midnight tonight (30th) and he number was 781,979 pretty much right in the middle.


UPDATE:

Modelling predicted 845,000-855,000 at midnight 31st March. Actual Number 855,007

Modelling predicted 920,000-935,000 at midnight 1st April. Actual Number 935,578

Model predicts we go through the million mark tomorrow, April 2nd

(1,003,578 to 1,018,578)



Final Count was 1,012,489


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Wycombe Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Wycombe Royal » 03 Apr 2020 09:02

Snowball 19.63% of resolved CONFIRMED cases were deaths

Slight correction for you. You need to be clearer when stating sensationalist stats.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 09:28

Wycombe Royal
Snowball 19.63% of resolved CONFIRMED cases were deaths

Slight correction for you. You need to be clearer when stating sensationalist stats.


Well, yeah, but the full post was

Passed the million mark at 19:02 GMT Thursday April 2nd

1,000,018 Confirmed Cases, 51,354 Deaths, 37,000 Serious or Critical

19.63% of resolved cases were deaths.


Maybe I could have been specific, but it's implied and I must have said twenty times now, "This is ONLY confirmed cases because that's the only reliable data so far." (I've also said that experts think the eventual community percentage deaths/case will be 0.9 to 2.5%)

FYI: The confirmed case death rate looks likely to pass 20%*. If every confirmed case masks 99 asymptomatic cases (a hell of a presumption) that would reduce overall rate to 0.2% still twice twice the rate of seasonal flu (and remember, seasonal flu "cases" are REPORTED Cases/Confirmed Cases. People who get seasonal flu, stay home feeling rough or think they have a rotten cold but don't see the doctor or end up in hospital, are NOT counted. Just the same as Covid-19!



*There is an interesting and very worrying trend in relation to Deaths:Recovered (for Confirmed Cases). This statistic which is very solid (in the sense that it isn't all over the place snapshot by snapshot) is GROWING. This suggests that the hospital death toll is rising steadily

At close of play on March 25th this was 15.69%
At close of play on March 26th this was 16.32%
At close of play on March 27th this was 17.01%
At close of play on March 28th this was 17.85%
At close of play on March 29th this was 18.35%
At close of play on March 30th this was 18.58%
At close of play on March 31st this was 19.21%

At close of play on April 1st this was 19.46%
At close of play on April 2nd this was 19.98%

Today (so far) it is steady at 19.98%. It never seems to fall back as the day progresses.

I am not sure if this suggests the virus is getting stronger, or if deaths are occurring because health services are not coping/triaging, or whether the increase is a build up of people lingering beyond 14 days and eventually dying.



YESTERDAY the French authorities added 884 Care Home Deaths . I've just temporarily removed that number from Deaths and Resolved Cases to see where the figure ("Death Percentage of Resolved Confirmed Cases") then lands

At close of play on March 31st this was 19.21%

At close of play on April 1st this was 19.46%
At close of play on April 2nd this was 19.71% (Removing the sudden Care Home Hike)
Today 19.98% so far

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 09:29

and I'm not being sensationalist. I'm stating actual numbers. Facts,

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Wycombe Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Wycombe Royal » 03 Apr 2020 10:06

Snowball Well, yeah, but the full post was

No it wasn't, the full post I quoted from was (bottom of page 41):

Snowball Passed the million mark at 19:02 GMT Thursday April 2nd

1,000,018 Confirmed Cases, 51,354 Deaths, 37,000 Serious or Critical

19.63% of resolved cases were deaths


:roll:

The Real Sandhurst Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by The Real Sandhurst Royal » 03 Apr 2020 10:19

Covid 19 cases in the Berkshire areas as of the 2nd April @ 9am

Bracknell Forest: 36
Reading: 67
Slough: 117
West Berkshire: 66
Windsor & Maidenhead: 75
Wokingham: 67

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 10:19

On the Death Rate for Confirmed Cases

As mentioned earlier, for Official Confirmed Cases there is a death rate. Clearly as these include all hospitalised people it is measuring more serious cases. This has nothing to do with the overall population death rate. Crudely, it's the "death rate if you go into hospital"

It has now crept up from 15% to 20% and still appears to be rising, but is it the same across countries? This table is for the ten (so far) worst hit countries and represents 80% of the world's Official Reported Cases. There are at least four anomalies.

The UK and Holland are only reporting a tiny number of Recovered Cases. This makes their death rate look stupidly high and is obviously wrong. China's figures have been iffy since the beginning and I can see no realistic reason why their health care should be TEN TIMES better than Italy's, 9 times that of the USA, 7 times that of Spain and France.

Germany has two things going against it stat-wise. First they have been measuring (and confirming) a much younger demographic. Second, reports say they are under-reporting Covid-linked deaths by calling them (for example) Cancer where that was a pre-existing condition.

Recovered >> Died >> RATE

18,278 - - - 13,915 - - - 43.22% - - - Italy
10,403 - - - 06,095 - - - 36.94% - - - USA
12,428 - - - 05,387 - - - 30.24% - - - France
02,495 - - - 1,011 - - - - 28.84% - - - Belgium
26,743 - - - 10,348 - - - 27.90% - - - Spain
16,711 - - - 03,160 - - - 15.90% - - - Iran

FULL Top-Ten TABLE
00,135 - - - 02,921 - - - 95.58% - - - UK ................ IGNORE, ATM
00,250 - - - 01,339 - - - 84.27% - - - Holland.......... IGNORE ATM

18,278 - - - 13,915 - - - 43.22% - - - Italy
10,403 - - - 06,095 - - - 36.94% - - - USA
12,428 - - - 05,387 - - - 30.24% - - - France
02,495 - - - 1,011 - - - - 28.84% - - - Belgium
26,743 - - - 10,348 - - - 27.90% - - - Spain
16,711 - - - 03,160 - - - 15.90% - - - Iran

22,440 - - - 01,107 - - - 04.70% - - - Germany
76,052 - - - 03,322 - - - 04.19% - - - China


What must be concerning is the mid-range countries Spain, Belgium, France, USA and Italy 28% to 43% Mortality for Confirmed Cases

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 10:21

Wycombe Royal
Snowball Well, yeah, but the full post was

No it wasn't, the full post I quoted from was (bottom of page 41):

Snowball Passed the million mark at 19:02 GMT Thursday April 2nd

1,000,018 Confirmed Cases, 51,354 Deaths, 37,000 Serious or Critical

19.63% of resolved cases were deaths


:roll:



Wyc, what are you on about? That is what I replied with, in bold

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