Emmer Green Royal

A study conducted by researchers at Oxford University says that, according to its model, more than half of the UK population has already been infected by coronavirus. That is, the ratio could be lower than 2:1. Basing your extrapolations on a figure of 100:1, when no evidence is provided to justify this figure, means that the conclusions are meaningless.

That is some TERRIBLE mathematics!

The UK Population is approximately 68,000,000

Half of that is 34,00,000. That's how many people you are saying has it! For God's sake 60% is considered the herd-immunity level

The officially confirmed cases number is 47,806 Cases

34,000,000:47,806

**is a ratio of 711:1** (Yesterday's numbers)

Not only is that bonkers but please explain: if half the population has it, when you test people WITH symptoms, in hospital, dead, dying, back from a crisis area, or had a contact with a known sufferer the percentage is (yesterday) 24.45%

If there really were half of the population with it, we'd get 97K cases from 194,000 tests, but if we were testing people who are NOT "randoms" but with serious symptoms, dead etc we would surely get something around 75% not 24%

If the 195,524 test were TOTALLY random they would have found 97,762 cases

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As for "no evidence" for my numbers. I have posted plenty. Spain, for example has 2,888 Confirmed Cases per million, a total of 135,082 Cases. The population, the TOTAL population of Spain is 46,750,098. The ratio between the TOTAL population and the number of confirmed cases is 46,750,098:135,082 is

**346**. That means if every single person in the country has it (absolutely ridiculous of course) the number, the maximum POSSIBLE number is 346:1, half of the Oxford 711:1

Or, look at the UK. It would be ludicrous to believe that the Confirmed Cases (tests are aimed at likely cases) would produce a number LESS than a random 195,524 people from the untested population. So, wildly saying the general population rate IS 24.45% (anything higher defies logic) that would give a total of about 17 Million people. (Actually 16,541,571)

**The ratio of 16,541,571:47,806 is 1:347**Interesting Spain based on actual cases v population produces 1:346. Doing the UK a different way gives 1:347

**346:1**

347:1that is the most extreme possible ratio