Coronavirus outbreak

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Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 07 Apr 2020 14:29

Yeah we have loads of live football to discuss


Spain now has 3,003 Confirmed Cases per million. That is 0.3%. This, so far 99.7% have not been shown to be positive. If EVERY one of these people has it or has had it, that ration is 332 unseen positives to 1 confirmed case 332:1

That 332 comes down every day

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One87One
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by One87One » 07 Apr 2020 15:52

muirinho
ShinPad This thread is utterly bizarre, on a forum about Reading football club first team, a random guy posts his interpretation of the limited and flawed data on a pandemic outbreak, and every other post is someone criticising him, or asking him to stop, and then he gets angry about it. Seriously, what's the point of any of it :lol: :lol: :lol:

Any one remember John salako? Why don't we get any posts remembering John salako. Does John salako have corona virus?


I know I've posted on this thread, but - why is it on the team board?


^ this, and Snowbollock's stats ffs. Surely you can put your energy into something more useful and rewarding?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 07 Apr 2020 15:59

One87One
muirinho
ShinPad This thread is utterly bizarre, on a forum about Reading football club first team, a random guy posts his interpretation of the limited and flawed data on a pandemic outbreak, and every other post is someone criticising him, or asking him to stop, and then he gets angry about it. Seriously, what's the point of any of it :lol: :lol: :lol:

Any one remember John salako? Why don't we get any posts remembering John salako. Does John salako have corona virus?


I know I've posted on this thread, but - why is it on the team board?


^ this, and Snowbollock's stats ffs. Surely you can put your energy into something more useful and rewarding?






https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52198946

There you go. Reading's Next Manager

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SouthDownsRoyal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SouthDownsRoyal » 07 Apr 2020 17:03

ShinPad This thread is utterly bizarre, on a forum about Reading football club first team, a random guy posts his interpretation of the limited and flawed data on a pandemic outbreak, and every other post is someone criticising him, or asking him to stop, and then he gets angry about it. Seriously, what's the point of any of it :lol: :lol: :lol:

Any one remember John salako? Why don't we get any posts remembering John salako. Does John salako have corona virus?


:lol:

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 07 Apr 2020 22:29

John Salako has not been diagnosed with coronavirus. Seems to be using isolation as an opportunity to promote tournaments on EA Sport's FIFA 20.

No h8 for the guy but we got him at the wrong end of his career. Really good in Division Two, fine in our first season in Division One, then not up to it.

Maximum ratio of missed cases:detected cases is a complete waste of everyone's time. Uninformative, useless, uninteresting. Worst. Stat. Ever.


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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 07 Apr 2020 23:23

I don't really know the stats on John Solako but as a 9 year old I thought he was incredible.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Horsham Royal » 08 Apr 2020 00:25

Jagermesiter1871 I don't really know the stats on John Solako but as a 9 year old I thought he was incredible.

Who did he play for at 9 ?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Old Man Andrews » 08 Apr 2020 07:42


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hendo » 08 Apr 2020 08:39

Horsham Royal
Jagermesiter1871 I don't really know the stats on John Solako but as a 9 year old I thought he was incredible.

Who did he play for at 9 ?


Chuckle.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 08 Apr 2020 11:01



Ho-Ho.


I believe the opposite is true, BTW (and it's not causality). Those who are anxious may seek out the stats. That doesn't mean those who seek out the stats are anxious. Philosophy and Logic 101. (Yes, I did, a year at Brikbeck and an Open University year).

I am NOT anxious about Covid personally. I have a 100% chance of dying. I've had my 3 score years + 10. Now it's extra-time, I have been kicked for 90 minutes and lots of bits hurt. I'm not sad about my dying, whether it's this week, this month, or some time in the next couple of years, or if I live (Heaven forbid to be a hundred). I know I'm not crazy about being old, having aching joints, a lot less sex. What's the problem with dying?

The more I know and understand about Covid the less anxious I feel.

What I dislike personally is uncertainty. Discovering a real death rate, is, for me, calming, and it would be calming if it ended up 50%. I don't CARE. It's just fact, history. If it was 100% I think that would be quite cool. To be there to see the end of it all. Wow! I can do nothing about the virus, the research. All I can do is follow the isolation and distance guidelines, look after the two refugees in my care.

The only vague anxiety (if that's the best word) but I can do nothing about it, so it's irrelevant - is my offspring. Any sadness (anxiety) that I might have (about my dying) is the thought of my kids being upset. Two would shake it off pretty easily, the two girls not so much

I suppose, deep down I have low-level anxieties about my kids dying, but frankly odds of thousands to 1 (at least) is not something to be anxious about.

What is, is, what will be, will be.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 08 Apr 2020 11:14

Here is a lovely set of statistics

Yesterday the Govt/NHS whoever published the following (without percentages)

213,181 Tests
055,242 Positives
018,589 Hospitalised
006,155 Hospitalised Dead

SO?

26% of tests positive
33% of THOSE end up in hospital
33% of those hospitalised patients die

So that is`:

of the 26% found positive, a third (8.75% of those tested) end up in hospital, and a third of THOSE (2.9% of positives) die. I find it calming to get REAL figures. We know that there are SOME undocumented cases. Be that 5:1, 10:1, 50:1, 100:1, 200:1 it doesn't MATTER.

A third of a third (one ninth = 11% of those going into hospital for Covid are dying (if the NHS stats are honest)

We now have a very decent rule of thumb that says if we test positive we have a 3% chance of dying in hospital. oxf*rd I can live with that, and I can live with my older siblings dying, my younger siblings dying, me dying. It happens. My sibs and me together are probably around 10% if we get it and are hospitalised. We are probably wouldn't be a lot better than that if there was no Corona.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by bcubed » 08 Apr 2020 11:18

Snowball


Ho-Ho.


I believe the opposite is true, BTW (and it's not causality). Those who are anxious may seek out the stats. That doesn't mean those who seek out the stats are anxious. Philosophy and Logic 101. (Yes, I did, a year at Brikbeck and an Open University year).

I am NOT anxious about Covid personally. I have a 100% chance of dying. I've had my 3 score years + 10. Now it's extra-time, I have been kicked for 90 minutes and lots of bits hurt. I'm not sad about my dying, whether it's this week, this month, or some time in the next couple of years, or if I live (Heaven forbid to be a hundred). I know I'm not crazy about being old, having aching joints, a lot less sex. What's the problem with dying?

The more I know and understand about Covid the less anxious I feel.

What I dislike personally is uncertainty. Discovering a real death rate, is, for me, calming, and it would be calming if it ended up 50%. I don't CARE. It's just fact, history. If it was 100% I think that would be quite cool. To be there to see the end of it all. Wow! I can do nothing about the virus, the research. All I can do is follow the isolation and distance guidelines, look after the two refugees in my care.

The only vague anxiety (if that's the best word) but I can do nothing about it, so it's irrelevant - is my offspring. Any sadness (anxiety) that I might have (about my dying) is the thought of my kids being upset. Two would shake it off pretty easily, the two girls not so much

I suppose, deep down I have low-level anxieties about my kids dying, but frankly odds of thousands to 1 (at least) is not something to be anxious about.

What is, is, what will be, will be.


That’s all totally reasonable, obviously
But isn’t the article saying that for most people looking at stats results in increased anxiety?
Not that anxious people look for stats

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 08 Apr 2020 11:54

bcubed
Snowball


Ho-Ho.


I believe the opposite is true, BTW (and it's not causality). Those who are anxious may seek out the stats. That doesn't mean those who seek out the stats are anxious. Philosophy and Logic 101. (Yes, I did, a year at Brikbeck and an Open University year).

I am NOT anxious about Covid personally. I have a 100% chance of dying. I've had my 3 score years + 10. Now it's extra-time, I have been kicked for 90 minutes and lots of bits hurt. I'm not sad about my dying, whether it's this week, this month, or some time in the next couple of years, or if I live (Heaven forbid to be a hundred). I know I'm not crazy about being old, having aching joints, a lot less sex. What's the problem with dying?

The more I know and understand about Covid the less anxious I feel.

What I dislike personally is uncertainty. Discovering a real death rate, is, for me, calming, and it would be calming if it ended up 50%. I don't CARE. It's just fact, history. If it was 100% I think that would be quite cool. To be there to see the end of it all. Wow! I can do nothing about the virus, the research. All I can do is follow the isolation and distance guidelines, look after the two refugees in my care.

The only vague anxiety (if that's the best word) but I can do nothing about it, so it's irrelevant - is my offspring. Any sadness (anxiety) that I might have (about my dying) is the thought of my kids being upset. Two would shake it off pretty easily, the two girls not so much

I suppose, deep down I have low-level anxieties about my kids dying, but frankly odds of thousands to 1 (at least) is not something to be anxious about.

What is, is, what will be, will be.


That’s all totally reasonable, obviously
But isn’t the article saying that for most people looking at stats results in increased anxiety?
Not that anxious people look for stats



Haven't read it properly yet, just glanced.

I know when *I* am anxious, and whatever the current feelings might be called, it isn't that.

I like numbers, facts (who'd've guessed?). Like "Who is best at predicting Reading games?"

Answer: we are all appallingly bad, but the least bad Nobbers are...

Maybe people are just different (who'd've guessed-2?) but I want to be as informed as possible. So, for example, I understand, this morning that 2/3 of those intubated die anyway. At my age, though I'm fit for my age, I'd guess I'd be nearer 80% goodbye, maybe 90% so maybe I should have one of those notes in my top pocket that says "Don't Bother".

Of course, how you feel when you really ARE dying, well, I dunno, do I? I might be, "Take the tube out that bastard in Bed 6 and give it to me. I WANT IT!"


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 08 Apr 2020 11:56

Snowball

I like numbers, facts (who'd've guessed?). Like "Who is best at predicting Reading games?"

Answer: we are all appallingly bad, but the least bad Nobbers are...



Buried in those numbers would be who is best at predicting home games v away games? Who is most pessimistic? Most optimistic?

Are people more accurate home or away?

The data "contains" those facts and data mining can be fascinating.

And, no I won't be doing it.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 08 Apr 2020 13:04

Is there anyone mathematically aware
here that can answer a couple of questions for me?


The Resolved Cases Number is split into "Got Better and was discharged" plus Deaths



WORLDWIDE

391,743 RESOLVED CASES
308,653 Got Better, Discharged
083,090 Died in Hospital


That means for all confirmed cases 21.2% die (83,090/308,653)

This number creeps up slightly every hour and has risen half a percent in a day. On April 8th the number was 15.69%

Question 1: Why is the number still climbing?

Is it because there are people lingering for 2-3-4-5 even six weeks that are increasing the death count for a later day?

Or is the maths wobbly? It seems cast-iron and completely logical and is a stat used by epidemiologists.

I ask this first question because if the number really IS 20% plus, that should mean, ultimately, that 20% plus of currently unresolved confirmed cases will die, and that produces a horrendously big number.

Italy reports 41% of their confirmed cases have died

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hendo » 08 Apr 2020 13:07

Snowball
Italy reports 41% of their confirmed cases have died


Italy confirmed cases 135,586
Italy deaths 17,127

12.63%

Not 41%

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 08 Apr 2020 13:46

Hendo
Snowball
Italy reports 41% of their confirmed cases have died


Italy confirmed cases 135,586
Italy deaths 17,127

12.63%

Not 41%



NO. That is the "CRUDE Death rate"

The crude death rate is deaths (NOW) against all Confirmed Cases, but those are seriously underestimated death numbers because many of those still active will die.

The deaths so far (17,271) have come from just 31% of the Cases (the ones who got sick 2-13 weeks ago... )

There are twice 31% plus another 7% (69%) still awaiting an outcome.

If the rate of dying per 1,000 cases doesn't change you should see 39,872 more deaths (17,271 * 2.25) from the current Active Cases giving a total of 57,000 dead in two weeks time.[/b] (Excluding new cases/deaths)

And, strangely enough, 56,999/135,586 is 42%

This number ought to be reduced for a few reasons. (1) The hospital staff will be learning all the time (2) when the numbers in hospital decline patients will have slightly improved care. Weighed against that, nurses and doctors are dying and all must be getting seriously fatigued.

==================================================

The way you can get an actual death rate is to look at RESOLVED Cases


135,586 Italy confirmed cases
094,067 Italy Active Cases Remaining, still to be resolved

041,519 Cases which had an outcome: <<<<<<<<<<
024,392 Recovered / Discharged (59%) <<<<<<<<<
017,127 Died (41%) <<<<<<<<


What you are missing is that many, many people (more than twice as many who have resolved) are still ill, very ill, critical and some will die.

Check this URL

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/


If the Current ACTIVE Cases (94,067) resolve themselves at the world-wide current rate of 21.21% (LOWER than Italy's rate so far) that means there are, "in the pipe" (unresolved cases) a further 19,942 deaths.

If New Cases halt at midnight last night**, the total deaths when all the current active cases have resolved should be near 19,942 + 17,127 which is 37,069 Deaths

That would give an "end-pandemic" result of 28% of Cases ending in death.

So I am saying that in approximately 14 Days time the deaths in Italy will have risen to and exceeded 37,069.

If Italy continues at the death rate it had for the first 31% of Cases the total will be around 57,000 Dead.




**Hypothetically stopping new cases to show the effect). Of course the new cases will keep coming for many, many weeks yet

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by From Despair To Where? » 08 Apr 2020 14:52

So do you honestly believe that only 135 people have recovered in Britain?

For example, my sister is frontline NHS. She tested positive over a week ago (2 days after presenting with symptoms) so is on the figures for confirmed cases but has not been hospitalised. She has isolated for 7 days and has now recovered. She has not been recorded as recovered. If people aren't hopitalised, how is their recovery recorded?

I don't believe that the figures for resolved cases in any country can be relied upon to draw any conclusions whatsoever.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 08 Apr 2020 15:47

From Despair To Where? So do you honestly believe that only 135 people have recovered in Britain?


No. I haven't used the UK "recovered number" because it's clearly wrong.


However, there IS a figure for active cases 48,948 on 7th April.

Take that away from the 55,242 Total Cases you get 6,294 RESOLVED Cases (which I strongly suspect is a LONG way under the actual number). The official death toll is 6,159, and the difference is 125, as I said, that seems bonkers.



From Despair To Where? For example, my sister is frontline NHS. She tested positive over a week ago (2 days after presenting with symptoms) so is on the figures for confirmed cases but has not been hospitalised. She has isolated for 7 days and has now recovered. She has not been recorded as recovered. If people aren't hopitalised, how is their recovery recorded?


According to the experts who appear either side of the Govt representative in the daily briefing, the International Standard for recording deaths is hospital deaths.

That doesn't mean that non-hospital cases are not logged. Of course they are. How else can we say that 34% of Cases are hospitalised? The numbers of Cases hospitalised was given yesterday (18,500 or so) thus we know, even if it wasn't stated separately, that Cases never going to hospital, is about 66% or about 37,000.

I, of course, have no idea how positives are eventually logged as resolved. My guess is they simply add the 1 Resolved (= Recovered) after 14-21 days unless they eventually DID go into hospital

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 08 Apr 2020 15:57

From Despair To Where?
I don't believe that the figures for resolved cases in any country can be relied upon to draw any conclusions whatsoever.




Of course there are deaths outside hospital, but, for a moment pretend there are not.

That is, anyone seriously ill with Covid goes into hospital and is logged as a Covid Case. We can then have a very accurate check of how many came in, how many were ultimately discharged, and how many died. (It may well be that some of those who are discharged have a relapse at home and die, either at home or back in hospital, but that just complicates matters).

But "Recovered Cases" are calculated as follows

55,424 Confirmed Cases less eventual Deaths. (maybe after 28 Days)

The only problem with that is that the number is very fluid with Confirmed Cases growing every day, with people going to hospital and recovering, people staying home and recovering, people staying home, almost recovering, then going into hospital, some then dying, then recovering, people recovering in hospital, going home, then relapsing, some dying at home, some going back into hospital....

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