The run in.

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Gunny Fishcake
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Re: The run in.

by Gunny Fishcake » 07 Apr 2021 09:05

Bookies aren't often wrong, we are 1/33 with Sky Bet not to be promoted

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Re: The run in.

by Nameless » 07 Apr 2021 09:11

Gunny Fishcake Bookies aren't often wrong, we are 1/33 with Sky Bet not to be promoted


While I think we’ll probably make the top 6 I think we’d then be outsiders to progress through the playoffs. Which is absolutely fine by me. Don’t think those odds are outrageous from a betting perspective but the playoffs are hard to predict with too much certainty.

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Re: The run in.

by tidus_mi2 » 07 Apr 2021 09:35

Gunny Fishcake Bookies aren't often wrong, we are 1/33 with Sky Bet not to be promoted

Teams who wobble into the play-offs don't usually win them.

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Re: The run in.

by Nameless » 07 Apr 2021 10:13

tidus_mi2
Gunny Fishcake Bookies aren't often wrong, we are 1/33 with Sky Bet not to be promoted

Teams who wobble into the play-offs don't usually win them.


Possibly too soon to write off Brentford and Swansea to be honest....

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Re: The run in.

by Snowflake Royal » 07 Apr 2021 10:14

Gunny Fishcake Bookies aren't often wrong, we are 1/33 with Sky Bet not to be promoted

Didn't we knock out the bookies favourite in the PO semi last time out?


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Re: The run in.

by Stranded » 07 Apr 2021 10:55

Gunny Fishcake Bookies aren't often wrong, we are 1/33 with Sky Bet not to be promoted


Surely that is just a product of us currently being "7th", the hardness of our run in and our shocking record in the play-offs?

Even if we finished 3rd 10pts clear of 4th and having completed the double over all the other sides, I still think we'd only be second or third favourites to win them.

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Re: The run in.

by WestYorksRoyal » 07 Apr 2021 10:56

Gunny Fishcake Bookies aren't often wrong, we are 1/33 with Sky Bet not to be promoted

What are the best odds you can get on us to be promoted Then? 20/1 would seem worth a flutter.

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Re: The run in.

by Hendo » 07 Apr 2021 10:59

WestYorksRoyal
Gunny Fishcake Bookies aren't often wrong, we are 1/33 with Sky Bet not to be promoted

What are the best odds you can get on us to be promoted Then? 20/1 would seem worth a flutter.


8/1 with B365

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Re: The run in.

by Snowball » 07 Apr 2021 11:35

Hendo
WestYorksRoyal
Gunny Fishcake Bookies aren't often wrong, we are 1/33 with Sky Bet not to be promoted

What are the best odds you can get on us to be promoted Then? 20/1 would seem worth a flutter.


8/1 with B365



10/1 SBK
10/1 BetFred
11/1 William Hill
12/1 Bet Victor

10/11 thru 6/4 to MAKE the POs, then you have to win a tie, then win at Wembley

If these are all 6/4 that's 9.63 overall odds, so Bet Victor's odds aren't that bad, considering

But I don't think I'd be tempted un less I could get 16s


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Re: The run in.

by Snowball » 07 Apr 2021 11:38

Swansea are 7/1 to drop out of the top six
and interesting that pundits thought Reading
had enough class up front to make it and Swansea
most likely to miss out

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Re: The run in.

by WestYorksRoyal » 07 Apr 2021 12:12

Snowball
Hendo
WestYorksRoyal What are the best odds you can get on us to be promoted Then? 20/1 would seem worth a flutter.


8/1 with B365



10/1 SBK
10/1 BetFred
11/1 William Hill
12/1 Bet Victor

10/11 thru 6/4 to MAKE the POs, then you have to win a tie, then win at Wembley

If these are all 6/4 that's 9.63 overall odds, so Bet Victor's odds aren't that bad, considering

But I don't think I'd be tempted un less I could get 16s

So 33/1 on to stay down, but only 12/1 to go up? I know these odds won't be equal and opposite, but seems a bit unbalanced.

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Re: The run in.

by WestYorksRoyal » 07 Apr 2021 12:14

Snowball Swansea are 7/1 to drop out of the top six
and interesting that pundits thought Reading
had enough class up front to make it and Swansea
most likely to miss out

Pundits and fans are fickle. If we play well against Watford and lose to a dodgy penalty, suddenly we'll be the ones who are not good enough to make it.

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Re: The run in.

by Snowball » 07 Apr 2021 12:18

WestYorksRoyal
Snowball
Hendo
8/1 with B365



10/1 SBK
10/1 BetFred
11/1 William Hill
12/1 Bet Victor

10/11 thru 6/4 to MAKE the POs, then you have to win a tie, then win at Wembley

If these are all 6/4 that's 9.63 overall odds, so Bet Victor's odds aren't that bad, considering

But I don't think I'd be tempted un less I could get 16s


So 33/1 on to stay down, but only 12/1 to go up? I know these odds won't be equal and opposite, but seems a bit unbalanced.


The 1/33 (actually it appears to be 1/20) is (now) more-or less "to finish seventh", or to put it another way it's those odds for the PO places to be Brentford, Swansea, Barnsley & Bournemouth.

The opposite is Reading the make the Play-Offs and that's (best-price) 6/4, an even greater disparity


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Re: The run in.

by Snowball » 07 Apr 2021 12:57

WestYorksRoyal
Snowball Swansea are 7/1 to drop out of the top six
and interesting that pundits thought Reading
had enough class up front to make it and Swansea
most likely to miss out


Pundits and fans are fickle. If we play well against Watford and lose to a dodgy penalty, suddenly we'll be the ones who are not good enough to make it.


I don’t think so, and tho' I think we may do well at Watford, I factored in defeats by them and Norwich and still think we have enough.

Reading have W4 D3 L1 in their last 8 games, playing decent football at a points-per-game of 1.875 ppg ("86-point season").

And frankly,IMO they should not he lost to Birmingham.

A draw there would be 2 ppg and undefeated for 8 games W4 D4, which is “how I see them” ATM

Reading’s scorers have been (oldest game first)

Puscas
Olise
JOAO
Yiadom
Meite
Meite
Meite
Ejaria
Olise
Puscas
JOAO

3 Meite
2 Puscas
2 JOAO
1 Yiadom
1 Ejaria
1 Olise

That's goals from a lot of players! ATM on recent form RFC are "on" for 11 more points = 77 to finish



Even if they lost at Watford, their 9-game ppg would be down to 1.67 and would be on for 74



SWANSEA’s 8-game total might not look too bad. They are W3 D1 L4 = 10 points from 8 games = 1.25 ppg. IF IF IF they could average this for the last 6 games they would be on 76 or 77 (calc is 76.5)

But it is the arc of their form, getting ever-worse over these games. They had three games where the leaned heavily on luck, “stole” the win at Luton and then had fours straight defeats where they were toothless.

2-1 v Stoke Scraped home with pen in 97th minute
2-1 v Boro - Scraped home with pen in 97th minute
1-1 v Blackburn - another penalty

1-0 at Luton - goal in 3rd minute. Smash-and-grab, Luton dominated the game and missed loads of chances

BBC said: Hatters boss Nathan Jones will wonder how his side failed to get even a point after such a positive display - both sides made five changes after disappointing showings last time out but it was his team who gelled better and posed the more constant threat.

They have since that lost four goals on the trot Bournemouth was a hammering, then Cardiff, Birmingham, Preston - conceding six goals and scoring zero

They have played 450+ consecutive minutes without scoring and have only scored one goal in open play in their last 6 games, 3 open-play goals in 8 games.

SCORERS



Ayew 4 (3 pens)
Roberts
Hourihane

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tidus_mi2
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Re: The run in.

by tidus_mi2 » 07 Apr 2021 16:31

You know thinking about this, you could say it's good warm up for the play-offs, I'd rather get into the play-offs on the back of some good results against the better sides in the division and surely it will serve as a big confidence boost if we can do just that.

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Re: The run in.

by Snowball » 07 Apr 2021 17:16

tidus_mi2 You know thinking about this, you could say it's good warm up for the play-offs, I'd rather get into the play-offs on the back of some good results against the better sides in the division and surely it will serve as a big confidence boost if we can do just that.


Absolutely!

Obviously a club can suddenly turn it round with a good win,
but presuming no sudden change of form from here in.... then

Brentford and Swansea are clearly having a bad time
(long may it continue), so if one of them drops out and
one hangs in and just makes the six, they are going to be
going into the semis with very out-of-sorts players, while
(ATM it seems) Reading and Barnsley should be flying

BMTH could go either way. Sure they had a good Easter but prior
to that they had some wobbles and lost a manager, and they have
some nasty games to come.

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Re: The run in.

by Snowflake Royal » 07 Apr 2021 17:38

S'why I've never been down about the run in. If we want to have a shot of the POs we need to be drawing and beating your Barnsley, Watford, Swansea, Cardiff, Norwichs etc, not having picked up enough points we can get into the POs despite losing to them.

If we can't pick up points against them it doesn't really matter if we finish 5th / 6th / 7th or 8th. We're unlikely to beat them in the POs if we can't match them in the league.

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Re: The run in.

by WestYorksRoyal » 07 Apr 2021 17:45

I just think we've underachieved against a number of lower teams this year but rarely look out of place against the better ones. Brentford away is the only game where a top opposition has looked definitively better than us, and maybe you could add a 45 minute implosion at Bournemouth. But it's against the likes of Millwall, Birmingham, Wycombe and Middlesbrough where results have not been up to scratch.

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Re: The run in.

by Snowflake Royal » 07 Apr 2021 17:47

WestYorksRoyal I just think we've underachieved against a number of lower teams this year but rarely look out of place against the better ones. Brentford away is the only game where a top opposition has looked definitively better than us, and maybe you could add a 45 minute implosion at Bournemouth. But it's against the likes of Millwall, Birmingham, Wycombe and Middlesbrough where results have not been up to scratch.

Which to be honest could almost certainly be said of most teams at the top. And far better to trip up v teams at the bottom than your actual rivals where that point swing really matters.

Afterall, it was beating Saints and West Ham that won us the League last time. Not putting away the teams at the bottom.

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Re: The run in.

by Stranded » 08 Apr 2021 09:31

Snowflake Royal
WestYorksRoyal I just think we've underachieved against a number of lower teams this year but rarely look out of place against the better ones. Brentford away is the only game where a top opposition has looked definitively better than us, and maybe you could add a 45 minute implosion at Bournemouth. But it's against the likes of Millwall, Birmingham, Wycombe and Middlesbrough where results have not been up to scratch.

Which to be honest could almost certainly be said of most teams at the top. And far better to trip up v teams at the bottom than your actual rivals where that point swing really matters.

Afterall, it was beating Saints and West Ham that won us the League last time. Not putting away the teams at the bottom.


This.

Picking Milwall/Boro as where we shouldn't have slipped up are strange choices as they are on the fringes of the play-offs and Milwall have barely lost to a top 6/7 side all season.

The Wycombe result could haunt us esp. given the nature of it but I don't think we would have won the following 3 games without it.

Everyone in the top 6 have dropped points where they shouldn't:

Norwich lost to Luton and Derby
Watford lost to Huddersfield and drew at Wycombe
Brentford lost to Coventry, drew twice with Derby
Swansea lost to Brum, Bristol City and Huddersfield
Barnsley lost to Luton, Sheff Wed and Huddersfield
Bournemouth lost twice to Wednesday, only took 1 point off Derby and 1 off Luton

So yes picking up more points against the strugglers would have helped but the points against those around you are almost worth more, esp. at this stage of the season.

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