How much does 'luck' play a part in results?

[morganb]

Not really one for Snowball as it is not a measurable statistic but how much does luck play in a team's progress through a season and how much is down to skill/hard work/good referees.

Some examples:

In the Swansea game Joao was wrestled to the ground by a player already on a yellow card. If it was spotted it was a penalty and a probable sending off. The officials either didn't see it or decided it wasn't a foul. Were we unlucky/Swansea lucky or was the referee right?

In the Barnsley v Rotherham game the goal was scored by a player who smashed his forearm into the face of the goalkeeper resulting in a fractured eye socket. The goal stood. Lucky or was the referee right?

There was a period when any ball hit from outside the area towards our goal went in. Skill by the opposition, bad keeping/defending or luck?

The penalties that weren't give against Sheffield Wednesday - unlucky or correct decisions?

Often while watching EFL on Quest you see some goals where you think we'd never get that luck - goalkeeping howlers, lucky deflections, dodgy penalties (Swansea kept getting late pens at one stage, were they all correctly given?)

Were there any instances where Reading were on the receiving end of some good luck - any of the sendings off against us? Offside goals ruled out that were actually on?

Does it really even itself out over the season or are we just an unlucky side.

[Sanguine]

Over time, of course it evens out. That's just statistical probability. What the timeframe is for that though is up for debate.

I'd describe results moreso as being subject to fine margins, as luck. A penalty for example, you broadly expect it to result in a goal. I haven't got our full penalty stats for the season, but Joao's three penalty misses cost us four points. In another scenario those penalties are all scored, and we go into our final two games of the season still in with a shot at the play-offs. Fine margins. The draw snatches from the jaw of victory by an opposition worldie, the goal-line clearance etc.

[bcubed]

Not really one for Snowball as it is not a measurable statistic but how much does luck play in a team's progress through a season and how much is down to skill/hard work/good referees.

Some examples:

In the Swansea game Joao was wrestled to the ground by a player already on a yellow card. If it was spotted it was a penalty and a probable sending off. The officials either didn't see it or decided it wasn't a foul. Were we unlucky/Swansea lucky or was the referee right?

In the Barnsley v Rotherham game the goal was scored by a player who smashed his forearm into the face of the goalkeeper resulting in a fractured eye socket. The goal stood. Lucky or was the referee right?

There was a period when any ball hit from outside the area towards our goal went in. Skill by the opposition, bad keeping/defending or luck?

The penalties that weren't give against Sheffield Wednesday - unlucky or correct decisions?

Often while watching EFL on Quest you see some goals where you think we'd never get that luck - goalkeeping howlers, lucky deflections, dodgy penalties (Swansea kept getting late pens at one stage, were they all correctly given?)

Were there any instances where Reading were on the receiving end of some good luck - any of the sendings off against us? Offside goals ruled out that were actually on?

Does it really even itself out over the season or are we just an unlucky side.

Always irks me when people say it evens out over a season
No reason it should - what's special about a season? Why not say it evens out over 10 seasons? Or 10 games? Its just arbitrary and you can just be unlucky all season or two or more seasons in a row. That's the nature of luck.

I think we were unlucky a few times but we also had plenty of chances to win games which we should have been able to take. So unlucky or not we haven't been good enough when it mattered.

[Gunny Fishcake]

Two things you need in life, good health and good luck

[WestYorksRoyal]

The best teams overcome bad luck and make the most of good luck. Think back to Sheffield Wednesday; we were unlucky but shouldn't we have had enough to win anyway?

On Saturday, Joao missed a good chance for 2-0 and if he scores then we're far more likely to win. In most cases teams moaning about luck have been architects of their own downfall.

I'd maybe make an exception for when you're a big underdog. I feel bad for lower PL teams having a dodgy penalty or VAR decision go against them against the bigger sides, as they are already facing a massive uphill battle and don't need luck against them too. It seems to happen remarkably often. I guess the closest comparison for us this season is Norwich, where we matched them most of the game and lost to a very soft penalty.

[PistolPete]

I feel this has been a VERY unlucky season.

Everyone says 'luck evens itself out'. It's just not true; you could consider luck like 'sliding doors', each moment of luck could (or could not) have a snowball effect on future fortunes.

Who I became friends with at university changed the direction of my life - where I was at a moment in time gave me my life changing job age 22. I really don't see how football is any different.

Naturally, 'the good will out' - so bad luck doesn't define you, but it definitely matters a lot!

[ILoveMoonPig]

That's a fair point. There is a MASSIVE amount of luck required to get promoted for example. But, I think the better teams create more chances for that luck to happen, so it becomes more likely they'll get that luck and do well. We've created a lot of opportunities to be lucky this season and it worked quite a few times. Just annoying that our luck ended just short of when we could have really done with it

[Lower West]

You make your own luck. Creating more shooting opportunities for example would lead to more goals, both directly and indirectly as a result. Some games we haven't had a shot on target in an entire half, or even forced the opposition keeper to make a save. Our corner/free kick delivery is woeful without Swift in the team. There's enough time for professional footballers to master the art if they really wanted to.

[Hound]

I guess sometimes you notice the bad luck more than the good

Think we’ve got away with a couple of sendings off - remember that Holmes got away with one vs Cov I think it was, probably one or two others.

[Zip]

We were lucky to get a draw v Boro when they had a valid goal disallowed. On balance I think we have endured some very poor refereeing decisions.

[Elm Park Kid]

Arnold Palmer said that golf was a game of luck - but the more he practice, the luckier he got.

[JR]

I feel this has been a VERY unlucky season.

Everyone says 'luck evens itself out'. It's just not true; you could consider luck like 'sliding doors', each moment of luck could (or could not) have a snowball effect on future fortunes.

Who I became friends with at university changed the direction of my life - where I was at a moment in time gave me my life changing job age 22. I really don't see how football is any different.

Naturally, 'the good will out' - so bad luck doesn't define you, but it definitely matters a lot!

I agree with this - football, like life, is about fine margins that have a huge unknown impact down the line.

Momentum is really key in football and I feel some of our bad luck really checked our momentum.

However, I’d much rather be in the championship moaning about bad luck and ref decisions, then being in Prem and moaning about VAR and not being able to properly celebrate a goal.

As an aside the following two sayings drive me mad:

- it evens out over the season. It most certainly does not in most cases
- giving 110% percent......

[under the tin]

Coppell frequently blessed his luck, particularly wrt injuries, in the 106 season.
He's on record as saying that it was the easiest season in his managerial career.

[bcubed]

I feel this has been a VERY unlucky season.

Everyone says 'luck evens itself out'. It's just not true; you could consider luck like 'sliding doors', each moment of luck could (or could not) have a snowball effect on future fortunes.

Who I became friends with at university changed the direction of my life - where I was at a moment in time gave me my life changing job age 22. I really don't see how football is any different.

Naturally, 'the good will out' - so bad luck doesn't define you, but it definitely matters a lot!

I agree with this - football, like life, is about fine margins that have a huge unknown impact down the line.

Momentum is really key in football and I feel some of our bad luck really checked our momentum.

However, I’d much rather be in the championship moaning about bad luck and ref decisions, then being in Prem and moaning about VAR and not being able to properly celebrate a goal.

As an aside the following two sayings drive me mad:

- it evens out over the season. It most certainly does not in most cases
- giving 110% percent......

With you on both of these
See above for luck evening out over a season
And just how anyone can give a %age effort of more than 100 has always been beyond me

[Stranded]

If we really have had an "unlucky season" this year, then that probably just balances out the Stam play-off season a few years ago where we considered "lucky".

[Westwood52]

Not really one for Snowball as it is not a measurable statistic but how much does luck play in a team's progress through a season and how much is down to skill/hard work/good referees.

Some examples:

In the Swansea game Joao was wrestled to the ground by a player already on a yellow card. If it was spotted it was a penalty and a probable sending off. The officials either didn't see it or decided it wasn't a foul. Were we unlucky/Swansea lucky or was the referee right?

In the Barnsley v Rotherham game the goal was scored by a player who smashed his forearm into the face of the goalkeeper resulting in a fractured eye socket. The goal stood. Lucky or was the referee right?

There was a period when any ball hit from outside the area towards our goal went in. Skill by the opposition, bad keeping/defending or luck?

The penalties that weren't give against Sheffield Wednesday - unlucky or correct decisions?

Often while watching EFL on Quest you see some goals where you think we'd never get that luck - goalkeeping howlers, lucky deflections, dodgy penalties (Swansea kept getting late pens at one stage, were they all correctly given?)

Were there any instances where Reading were on the receiving end of some good luck - any of the sendings off against us? Offside goals ruled out that were actually on?

Does it really even itself out over the season or are we just an unlucky side.

Absolutely agree on the Joao incident.It effectively decided the game.Now giving the Ref the benefit of the doubt he might not have seen it; but the Lino couldn’t miss it.Now he either bottled it ,or Refs tell linos before game not to give fouls,particularly in the penalty area.Without VAR linos very rarely advise Refs on penalties.Championship refs are notoriously bad; but are rarely biased.Over a season I think luck evens out.
We failed top six this season; because the players bottled it,Pauno couldn’t handle substitutions ,we didn’t bring someone in during January and Jao s form fell off a cliff.Injuries tend to even out across clubs.Swift s loss was a big handicap,but this happened to nearly every club in the division;where they lost a key player over most of the season.

[Stranded]

Not really one for Snowball as it is not a measurable statistic but how much does luck play in a team's progress through a season and how much is down to skill/hard work/good referees.

Some examples:

In the Swansea game Joao was wrestled to the ground by a player already on a yellow card. If it was spotted it was a penalty and a probable sending off. The officials either didn't see it or decided it wasn't a foul. Were we unlucky/Swansea lucky or was the referee right?

In the Barnsley v Rotherham game the goal was scored by a player who smashed his forearm into the face of the goalkeeper resulting in a fractured eye socket. The goal stood. Lucky or was the referee right?

There was a period when any ball hit from outside the area towards our goal went in. Skill by the opposition, bad keeping/defending or luck?

The penalties that weren't give against Sheffield Wednesday - unlucky or correct decisions?

Often while watching EFL on Quest you see some goals where you think we'd never get that luck - goalkeeping howlers, lucky deflections, dodgy penalties (Swansea kept getting late pens at one stage, were they all correctly given?)

Were there any instances where Reading were on the receiving end of some good luck - any of the sendings off against us? Offside goals ruled out that were actually on?

Does it really even itself out over the season or are we just an unlucky side.

Absolutely agree on the Joao incident.It effectively decided the game.Now giving the Ref the benefit of the doubt he might not have seen it; but the Lino couldn’t miss it.Now he either bottled it ,or Refs tell linos before game not to give fouls,particularly in the penalty area.Without VAR linos very rarely advise Refs on penalties.Championship refs are notoriously bad; but are rarely biased.Over a season I think luck evens out.
We failed top six this season; because the players bottled it,Pauno couldn’t handle substitutions ,we didn’t bring someone in during January and Jao s form fell off a cliff.Injuries tend to even out across clubs.Swift s loss was a big handicap,but this happened to nearly every club in the division;where they lost a key player over most of the season.

Bold bit.

Did they really? Swift is arguably our key man or one of the top 3 and he's missed 30 games through injury, Meite (our 2nd top scorer with 11) has missed 20 games. I'm not saying other clubs haven't missed players but have any other clubs really missed players as key as those to for 66% and 50% of the season respectively.

Not saying they haven't but just challenging what seems like a pretty big assertion.

[bcubed]

If we really have had an "unlucky season" this year, then that probably just balances out the Stam play-off season a few years ago where we considered "lucky".

Fair

I remember coming away from many games that year scratching my head wondering how the hell we won that one

[Greatwesternline]

Early on in the season we were the beneficiaries of a lot of red cards. And penalties.

Joao scored 3 i think and missed 3, Olise scoring the other.

Later on in the season i think our players have been diving to the ground theatrically when there probably was sufficient contact to earn a penalty.

If we accept that "winning" penalties is a legitimate thing to do, then players need to be good at winning them. You do that by inducing contact, and once that contact happens going down in a convincing way to give the ref a hard decision to make.

If you play for the contact but then flap your arms as you go down (meite or joao come to mind) you are making it easier for the ref to dismiss it as a dive.

Winning penalties is an art, and at times, our players have not been very finnesed in that art. if you actually get fouled i.e. put sufficiently off balance to not be able to play as you wanted, what that looks like naturally is not falling on the floor with both arms theatrically in the air and your feet leaping off the ground. You need to be smarter than that.

[Snowball]

If we really have had an "unlucky season" this year, then that probably just balances out the Stam play-off season a few years ago where we considered "lucky".

Fair

I remember coming away from many games that year scratching my head wondering how the hell we won that one

It wasn't complicated.

We just kicked a beach ball around between the CBs for 80 minutes,
then, when the opposition fell asleep with boredom, we tapped in a goal