Magic Number

303 posts
YorkshireRoyal99
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5005
Joined: 10 Aug 2017 18:07

Re: Magic Number

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 12 Feb 2023 17:25

Snowflake Royal
YorkshireRoyal99
Snowflake Royal Reading - 86 (16 to play - 38 pts)
.........
Cardiff - 74 (15 to play - 29 pts)
Wigan - 77 (16 to play - 29 pts)
Hudders - 76 (16 to play - 28 pts)
Blackpool - 76 (16 to play - 28 pts)

Magic Number is 38

But Hudders and Blackpool are still to play as per SF so can't both get to 76.

Play offs seem long gone at this point. And despite probably still being ok, we look like yet another finish in the bottom 7, when we should really be lower mid-table.


Bottom 7 would be a great achievement with the resources we've had. But let's not forget, this is just a poor spell of form. Whereas if we get back to "about average" for us then we will probably climb a couple of places above Birmingham and Bristol City (who are in good form and once they go back to "about average" will probably begin to slip).

There's where we were at the start of the season, where anything not involving relegation is a success looking at the season before it starts, and then there's the context of where we've been all season, which is outside the bottom 7 until the last week or so. In which case, it's a failure to make the position we've been in for close to 3 quarters of the season secure.


Depends how far you're willing to take it really. By the same gesture, you could say it's a "failure" to not finish in the top half considering at Christmas time we were on the fringes of the play offs and you could probably say still were up until the last couple of games because you only need 2/3 good results to suddenly be in contention again.

Mr Angry
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5780
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 16:05
Location: South Oxfordshire

Re: Magic Number

by Mr Angry » 13 Feb 2023 10:35

After our last win in the League on December 27th, our magic number was 56.

Today, after zero wins in the last 6 league games, our magic number has fallen to 38.

Put another way; it has fallen by 3 points per game for the last 6 games; at that rate EVEN WITH NO WINS we will be safe in 13 games........

User avatar
Snowflake Royal
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 39393
Joined: 20 Jun 2017 17:51

Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 13 Feb 2023 12:15

Mr Angry After our last win in the League on December 27th, our magic number was 56.

Today, after zero wins in the last 6 league games, our magic number has fallen to 38.

Put another way; it has fallen by 3 points per game for the last 6 games; at that rate EVEN WITH NO WINS we will be safe in 13 games........

Good point.

I think that gap to the relegation zone has only narrower by a couple of points, if that, in that time as well.

User avatar
Hendo
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 21033
Joined: 25 Mar 2012 20:53
Location: Lambs to the cosmic slaughter

Re: Magic Number

by Hendo » 13 Feb 2023 12:19

Snowflake Royal
Mr Angry After our last win in the League on December 27th, our magic number was 56.

Today, after zero wins in the last 6 league games, our magic number has fallen to 38.

Put another way; it has fallen by 3 points per game for the last 6 games; at that rate EVEN WITH NO WINS we will be safe in 13 games........

Good point.

I think that gap to the relegation zone has only narrower by a couple of points, if that, in that time as well.


On 27th December we were 8th on 35 points.

Outside the play-offs on GD and 10 points ahead of Blackpool in 22nd.

Today we're 18th on 38 points.

Outside the play-offs by 8 points and 9 points ahead of Wigan in 22nd.

So the bottom 3 have only clawed back 1 point on us.

User avatar
Sutekh
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 18386
Joined: 12 Feb 2014 14:05
Location: Undiscovered pyramid somewhere in Egypt

Re: Magic Number

by Sutekh » 13 Feb 2023 12:40

Hendo
Snowflake Royal
Mr Angry After our last win in the League on December 27th, our magic number was 56.

Today, after zero wins in the last 6 league games, our magic number has fallen to 38.

Put another way; it has fallen by 3 points per game for the last 6 games; at that rate EVEN WITH NO WINS we will be safe in 13 games........

Good point.

I think that gap to the relegation zone has only narrower by a couple of points, if that, in that time as well.


On 27th December we were 8th on 35 points.

Outside the play-offs on GD and 10 points ahead of Blackpool in 22nd.

Today we're 18th on 38 points.

Outside the play-offs by 8 points and 9 points ahead of Wigan in 22nd.

So the bottom 3 have only clawed back 1 point on us.


Revisit that stat again after the Blackpool game.


Elm Park Kid
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2053
Joined: 05 Feb 2013 10:45

Re: Magic Number

by Elm Park Kid » 13 Feb 2023 13:17

The overall conclusion is that we can be really, really bad for the rest of the season and probably still be safe.

We're struggling for wins right now, and performances are poor, but I don't get the impression that this team is going to just out and out collapse. More likely we'll get to 45 points by mid-March and then PInce will struggle to get them motivated.

Kitsondinho
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6008
Joined: 25 Feb 2005 23:19
Location: at a cricket ground somewhere around the country........

Re: Magic Number

by Kitsondinho » 13 Feb 2023 13:40

With rumours that Warnock is going to become Huddersfield’s new boss, I DO NOT want to be needing any points from our final game there in May to stay up!! :? So if we could get the required 3 more wins in the next 12 days, that would be awesome…

User avatar
Snowflake Royal
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 39393
Joined: 20 Jun 2017 17:51

Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 14 Feb 2023 22:06

35

Stranded
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 19582
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 12:42
Location: Propping up the bar in the Nags

Re: Magic Number

by Stranded » 15 Feb 2023 06:32

Kitsondinho With rumours that Warnock is going to become Huddersfield’s new boss, I DO NOT want to be needing any points from our final game there in May to stay up!! :? So if we could get the required 3 more wins in the next 12 days, that would be awesome…


Oh, I don't know, would love to go there needing a win to sneak into the top 6 :wink:


User avatar
paultheroyal
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 12757
Joined: 04 Mar 2005 12:59
Location: Hob Nob Reality TV Champ 2010/2011

Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 15 Feb 2023 09:23

Edging closer…. 4 wins will do it. Now looking like 3 and 51 points as it will take an outrageous turn around of results from the bottom 3 to get even close to that.

Massive turnaround from last year despite negativity towards Ince right now.

URZ.

YorkshireRoyal99
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5005
Joined: 10 Aug 2017 18:07

Re: Magic Number

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 15 Feb 2023 09:28

paultheroyal Edging closer…. 4 wins will do it. Now looking like 3 and 51 points as it will take an outrageous turn around of results from the bottom 3 to get even close to that.

Massive turnaround from last year despite negativity towards Ince right now.

URZ.


He will have silenced a few critics last night after changing shape, changing style slightly and trusting the youth and we reaped the rewards from this as well.

Hopefully now it becomes a penny for his thoughts going into future games as well. Shows what we can do when get after teams and we have players with pace who can threaten teams.

User avatar
paultheroyal
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 12757
Joined: 04 Mar 2005 12:59
Location: Hob Nob Reality TV Champ 2010/2011

Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 15 Feb 2023 09:30

YorkshireRoyal99
paultheroyal Edging closer…. 4 wins will do it. Now looking like 3 and 51 points as it will take an outrageous turn around of results from the bottom 3 to get even close to that.

Massive turnaround from last year despite negativity towards Ince right now.

URZ.


He will have silenced a few critics last night after changing shape, changing style slightly and trusting the youth and we reaped the rewards from this as well.

Hopefully now it becomes a penny for his thoughts going into future games as well. Shows what we can do when get after teams and we have players with pace who can threaten teams.


Apparently not looking at Twitter. God we have some dickhead fans. He got lucky and hand forced because of the injuries to Long etc.

From where we were to where we are now, Ince has done a great job.

User avatar
Franchise FC
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 10851
Joined: 22 May 2007 16:24
Location: Relocated to LA

Re: Magic Number

by Franchise FC » 15 Feb 2023 09:43

paultheroyal
YorkshireRoyal99
paultheroyal Edging closer…. 4 wins will do it. Now looking like 3 and 51 points as it will take an outrageous turn around of results from the bottom 3 to get even close to that.

Massive turnaround from last year despite negativity towards Ince right now.

URZ.


He will have silenced a few critics last night after changing shape, changing style slightly and trusting the youth and we reaped the rewards from this as well.

Hopefully now it becomes a penny for his thoughts going into future games as well. Shows what we can do when get after teams and we have players with pace who can threaten teams.


Apparently not looking at Twitter. God we have some dickhead fans. He got lucky and hand forced because of the injuries to Long etc.

From where we were to where we are now, Ince has done a great job.

Yep
The squad we have remains :
Those that are related to the manager
Those that are injury prone and no-one else wanted to take the risk
Those that are seriously inconsistent and no-one else wanted
Those whose careers are being given the last rites
Those whose careers haven’t really started and about whom we have no real idea as to whether they’ll make it
Andy Carroll


YorkshireRoyal99
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5005
Joined: 10 Aug 2017 18:07

Re: Magic Number

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 15 Feb 2023 09:53

paultheroyal
YorkshireRoyal99
paultheroyal Edging closer…. 4 wins will do it. Now looking like 3 and 51 points as it will take an outrageous turn around of results from the bottom 3 to get even close to that.

Massive turnaround from last year despite negativity towards Ince right now.

URZ.


He will have silenced a few critics last night after changing shape, changing style slightly and trusting the youth and we reaped the rewards from this as well.

Hopefully now it becomes a penny for his thoughts going into future games as well. Shows what we can do when get after teams and we have players with pace who can threaten teams.


Apparently not looking at Twitter. God we have some dickhead fans. He got lucky and hand forced because of the injuries to Long etc.

From where we were to where we are now, Ince has done a great job.


Yeah I'm honestly not sure what people are/were expecting. It's a cobbled together squad with what was available, what we could afford and who was willing to come and play for us. The fact we've been able to make it (more than) competitive is a positive within itself, although I think Ince and his staff take credit for that as well.

User avatar
Silver Fox
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 25701
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 10:02
Location: From the Andes to the indies in my undies

Re: Magic Number

by Silver Fox » 15 Feb 2023 21:56

33 (GD notwithstanding)

Mr Angry
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5780
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 16:05
Location: South Oxfordshire

Re: Magic Number

by Mr Angry » 18 Feb 2023 10:31

Still 33 after last nights result.

Games to look out for today:

Blackpool v Stoke
Huddersfield v Birmingham
Rotherham v Coventry
Wigan v Norwich

Royal_jimmy
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4948
Joined: 10 Aug 2011 10:44
Location: Planet Earth

Re: Magic Number

by Royal_jimmy » 18 Feb 2023 17:01

10 points above relegation

I'd like another 9 points to be sure of safety

Kitsondinho
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6008
Joined: 25 Feb 2005 23:19
Location: at a cricket ground somewhere around the country........

Re: Magic Number

by Kitsondinho » 18 Feb 2023 17:38

Royal_jimmy 10 points above relegation

I'd like another 9 points to be sure of safety

P. Ince agrees , as he keeps telling everyone…

User avatar
Sutekh
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 18386
Joined: 12 Feb 2014 14:05
Location: Undiscovered pyramid somewhere in Egypt

Re: Magic Number

by Sutekh » 18 Feb 2023 17:57

Kitsondinho
Royal_jimmy 10 points above relegation

I'd like another 9 points to be sure of safety

P. Ince agrees , as he keeps telling everyone…


Reading are averaging approx 1.28ppg so far and presuming the club maintains that for the remaining games then it’ll finish with around 58 points.

User avatar
Snowflake Royal
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 39393
Joined: 20 Jun 2017 17:51

Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 18 Feb 2023 18:12

Sutekh
Kitsondinho
Royal_jimmy 10 points above relegation

I'd like another 9 points to be sure of safety

P. Ince agrees , as he keeps telling everyone…


Reading are averaging approx 1.28ppg so far and presuming the club maintains that for the remaining games then it’ll finish with around 58 points.

Over the season, which isn’t always a good measure of what we're doing now.

Over the last 3 games our rolling 6 games average is 0.50, 0.83, 0.83
For 12 games its 1.00, 1.25, 1.25

So we are at least moving roughly in the right direction. Maybe.

303 posts

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Clyde1998, Linden Jones' Tash, WestYorksRoyal, Who Moved The Goalposts? and 464 guests

It is currently 28 Mar 2024 12:52