Magic Number

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Mid Sussex Royal
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Re: Magic Number

by Mid Sussex Royal » 18 Apr 2022 19:31

Peterboro are down.

They've got got Forest and Millwall next (now 7th so well in playoff mix) and because of their GD cannot drop any points. They're gone

That result today has pretty much relegated Barnsley too, they're not winning at Hudds

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Re: Magic Number

by Dixie Norm » 18 Apr 2022 19:37

Do people remember the required scenario for when we got relegated from the Prem with Sir Steve? We're down to the last few games and anything can happen. I still expect this to go down to the last game

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Re: Magic Number

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 18 Apr 2022 19:46

Mr Angry Put another way; both Peterboro now need to get 2 points per game (ppg) more than us to overhaul us, Derby (due to better GD) need 1.8ppg, and Barnsley 1.5 ppg.

If all 4 of the games in the next round of fixtures end in defeats for the bottom 4, that ppg increases - 2.5ppg for Peterboro, 2ppg for Derby & 1.8ppg for Barnsley.

I appreciate "until mathematically certain" etc etc, but I genuinely just can't see any one of those 3 teams suddenly finding that level of form from where they are right now.


Just a point on this, in fairness to Peterborough, only 1 defeat in 6, 3 wins in that time with 11 points taken from a possible 18. I appreciate it's not the ppg ratio they needed, but that's a fair crack at it and its where I was coming from on a few occasions by referencing some teams usually do "find some form" when it comes down to the last few games.

Thankfully though, we've been in good form ourselves and that's what is keeping us up, which is exactly how it should be as well.

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Re: Magic Number

by Mr Angry » 18 Apr 2022 22:10

paultheroyal PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 draw and we are staying up!! URZ!!


What if none out of us, Posh or Barnsley get another point?

We stay up even without getting a draw.

Thats where the PTR falls down.

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Re: Magic Number

by Mr Angry » 18 Apr 2022 22:12

YorkshireRoyal99
Mr Angry Put another way; both Peterboro now need to get 2 points per game (ppg) more than us to overhaul us, Derby (due to better GD) need 1.8ppg, and Barnsley 1.5 ppg.

If all 4 of the games in the next round of fixtures end in defeats for the bottom 4, that ppg increases - 2.5ppg for Peterboro, 2ppg for Derby & 1.8ppg for Barnsley.

I appreciate "until mathematically certain" etc etc, but I genuinely just can't see any one of those 3 teams suddenly finding that level of form from where they are right now.


Just a point on this, in fairness to Peterborough, only 1 defeat in 6, 3 wins in that time with 11 points taken from a possible 18. I appreciate it's not the ppg ratio they needed, but that's a fair crack at it and its where I was coming from on a few occasions by referencing some teams usually do "find some form" when it comes down to the last few games.

Thankfully though, we've been in good form ourselves and that's what is keeping us up, which is exactly how it should be as well.


Yeah, credit where credit is due, Posh have had a real go.

They hung onto Ferguson for too long; McCann didn't have enough time to turn their season around (much like we hung onto Pauno for too long - though I suspect there were financial reasons for that).


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Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 18 Apr 2022 22:35

Millsy
paultheroyal PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 draw and we are staying up!! URZ!!


So what we finish on 42 points and Posh win all their games ending on 43 points and we're staying up?


It’s the PTR predictor. Get with it.

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Re: Magic Number

by SouthDownsRoyal » 19 Apr 2022 00:02

paultheroyal
Millsy
paultheroyal PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 draw and we are staying up!! URZ!!


So what we finish on 42 points and Posh win all their games ending on 43 points and we're staying up?


It’s the PTR predictor. Get with it.


Bit flawed m9

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Re: Magic Number

by SouthDownsRoyal » 19 Apr 2022 00:05

Dixie Norm Do people remember the required scenario for when we got relegated from the Prem with Sir Steve? We're down to the last few games and anything can happen. I still expect this to go down to the last game


As hugely unlikely as it may be, until it’s mathematically certain I’m not taking anything for granted

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Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 19 Apr 2022 00:28

SouthDownsRoyal
paultheroyal
Millsy
So what we finish on 42 points and Posh win all their games ending on 43 points and we're staying up?


It’s the PTR predictor. Get with it.


Bit flawed m9


It’s pretty accurate so far gr8 m8


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Re: Magic Number

by Hound » 19 Apr 2022 07:42

Dixie Norm Do people remember the required scenario for when we got relegated from the Prem with Sir Steve? We're down to the last few games and anything can happen. I still expect this to go down to the last game


Not saying it’s impossible but that’s got to be really unlikely

Suspect it’ll be all over next Saturday

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Re: Magic Number

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 19 Apr 2022 09:18

Hound
Dixie Norm Do people remember the required scenario for when we got relegated from the Prem with Sir Steve? We're down to the last few games and anything can happen. I still expect this to go down to the last game


Not saying it’s impossible but that’s got to be really unlikely

Suspect it’ll be all over next Saturday


This really, we only require a win and then we've made absolutely certain that we survive, regardless of what the others do (or 3 draws). Even though West Brom and Luton are tough fixtures, I'd back us to get 3 points from those fixtures.

Considering it's our form that is seeing us survive, I'd anticipate we do the necessary on Saturday against Hull. Hopefully we can look to get above 21st as well before the season finishes, but let's just make sure the other two go down this weekend.

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Re: Magic Number

by Pepe the Horseman » 19 Apr 2022 09:23

Part of me wants it to go to the West Brom game for the celebrations, but even if we lose on Saturday it'll be over. Can't see any way Barnsley beat Huddersfield or Posh beat Forest.

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Re: Magic Number

by Stranded » 19 Apr 2022 09:45

Yep, Huddersfield are on a roll - just don't see Barnsley getting a sniff there with their away form.

Fully expecting to kick off Saturday in a 2 horse race with Peterborough, which fair play to them, I don't think anyone thought they would likely be the last man standing of the bottom 3.

Have a sneaking feeling we'll win at Hull but our record there is shocking, would be very Reading to stay up on the back of an away defeat.


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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 19 Apr 2022 12:22

paultheroyal
SouthDownsRoyal
paultheroyal
It’s the PTR predictor. Get with it.


Bit flawed m9


It’s pretty accurate so far gr8 m8

Why don't you start your own thread so you can get the credit you deserve, rather than being lost in this one.

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paultheroyal
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Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 19 Apr 2022 12:28

Snowflake Royal
paultheroyal
SouthDownsRoyal
Bit flawed m9


It’s pretty accurate so far gr8 m8

Why don't you start your own thread so you can get the credit you deserve, rather than being lost in this one.


Its following a similar theme, mightily accurate so its ok here thank you x

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Re: Magic Number

by Stranded » 22 Apr 2022 21:45

And then there was one.

Barnsley really are awful and defeat tonight means they join Derby in the 0 club.

Only Peterborough remain. The magic number sits at 3, though realistically it's 2 with GD.

So a win for us tomorrow or a defeat for Posh, job done. Draws in both games will also do it.

Posh draw and defeat for us all but confirms survival too barring the sort of score lines that would see a match fixing investigation.

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Re: Magic Number

by Franchise FC » 22 Apr 2022 21:56

That's better

A timely update :wink:

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Re: Magic Number

by Royal_jimmy » 22 Apr 2022 22:14

Even if we lose tomorrow and Posh beat Nottingham Forest I think we'll finish the job by beating West Brom next week. Realistically I can see both us and Posh getting beat tomorrow confirming our safety.

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Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 23 Apr 2022 17:26

paultheroyal PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 draw and we are staying up!! URZ!!


Didn’t let you down guys, didn’t need the draw in the end, but very accurate throughout.

PTR predictor is the only stat you need for future campaigns.

WE ARE STAYING UP!!

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Re: Magic Number

by Millsy » 23 Apr 2022 21:17

Cool, now you can relax and learn maths.

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