Do you want Ince to stay?

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Ince in or out

In
33
42%
Out
45
58%
 
Total votes: 78
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NathStPaul
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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by NathStPaul » 11 May 2022 11:44

Millsy New manager bounce could also apply to any manager who buys a trampoline and uses it for the first time, although I accept this is not what is always meant when discussed here.

It is hilarious comedy like this that we have missed greatly. Thank the lord above you are back.

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by Hound » 11 May 2022 11:53

YorkshireRoyal99
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If that's the case we'd attribute the cliche "new manager bounce" to the previous manager as well then?

In terms of the fitness element, Bowen and his team take credit for getting players up to a certain level, but you're talking about two different managers, with different play styles and likely different philosophies as well, I'm not sure you can say Bowen had that much influence on the run at the start of last season.

No, you obviously wouldn't, because that's a change in fortunes mid-season occurring when a change is made. Typically you have a long run of poor results followed by q short term increase.


In principle then, it's not really that much different to Pauno replacing Bowen. A poor-ish run of results at the end of the season before, followed by a short term increase at the beginning of the season after. As I say, you do not credit the predecessor for the new manager changing the results of the club, be it short, medium or long term.


Just looking back at some articles, Bowen after lockdown was 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses that season. Actually wasn’t that terrible considering Joao got injured (and Bowen chose not to risk bringing him back in)

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by TiagoIlori » 11 May 2022 11:59

I said I was unsure Easter Monday, but I don’t think he’s really made us that much better aside from his man management to motivate the players and trying to ensure they don’t collapse. Any manager should be able to offer that. We still leak goals, are overly reliant on Swift and Joao and look like we’re going no where.

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by Millsy » 11 May 2022 12:00

NathStPaul
Millsy New manager bounce could also apply to any manager who buys a trampoline and uses it for the first time, although I accept this is not what is always meant when discussed here.

It is hilarious comedy like this that we have missed greatly. Thank the lord above you are back.


:P :wink:

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by Snowflake Royal » 11 May 2022 17:37

YorkshireRoyal99
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If that's the case we'd attribute the cliche "new manager bounce" to the previous manager as well then?

In terms of the fitness element, Bowen and his team take credit for getting players up to a certain level, but you're talking about two different managers, with different play styles and likely different philosophies as well, I'm not sure you can say Bowen had that much influence on the run at the start of last season.

No, you obviously wouldn't, because that's a change in fortunes mid-season occurring when a change is made. Typically you have a long run of poor results followed by q short term increase.


In principle then, it's not really that much different to Pauno replacing Bowen. A poor-ish run of results at the end of the season before, followed by a short term increase at the beginning of the season after. As I say, you do not credit the predecessor for the new manager changing the results of the club, be it short, medium or long term.

No, it's really different.


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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by tmesis » 11 May 2022 18:38

Whether he stays or goes, the important thing is to get it sorted quickly.

I would say this is our most critical close-season since, possibly, the end of 82/83.

If we can somehow cobble together a team that can survive next season, we should have a little more financial freedom to build a team in 23/24, coupled with refocussing on value rather than just splashing the cash around.

Get it wrong, and the question could be "how far will we fall?"


The fact that Ince has not been told "thank for your efforts" already, rather points to him staying, unless the club are so incompetent that they could keep him here for another few weeks before deciding they want somebody else - although I wouldn't put it past them.

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by Snowflake Royal » 12 May 2022 08:20

tmesis Whether he stays or goes, the important thing is to get it sorted quickly.

I would say this is our most critical close-season since, possibly, the end of 82/83.

If we can somehow cobble together a team that can survive next season, we should have a little more financial freedom to build a team in 23/24, coupled with refocussing on value rather than just splashing the cash around.

Get it wrong, and the question could be "how far will we fall?"


The fact that Ince has not been told "thank for your efforts" already, rather points to him staying, unless the club are so incompetent that they could keep him here for another few weeks before deciding they want somebody else - although I wouldn't put it past them.

Well we waited the entire close and pre-season to appoint Paunovic.

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by ReadingGlasses » 13 May 2022 13:02

It's possible that they've been waiting to get Bowen in to oversee the process and haven't made a final decision yet. Or perhaps they've not even started looking yet. That said, the longer they go without announcing anything, the more likely it seems that Ince will be staying. It would be silly to keep him on as interim manager for weeks and weeks when there's not actually any football happening.

The trouble is that with almost no communication it is very hard to tell what's going on. There haven't even been the usual "my mate in the ticket office told me that we're in talks with X" type rumours.

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by Stranded » 13 May 2022 14:14

The manager needs to be sorted in the coming days. We are I believe 8 days away from when we need to let players know that we will not offer them a new deal. Unless we are going down the Head Coach route where the DoF or Head of Football is fully responsible for recruitment then we need the new guy working alongside Bowen to ensure we get the right (or best) players we can afford.

Most players will be on holiday now, so the market won't really move (even for free agents) until the end of the month but the work already needs to have started - every day/week of delay makes next year ever harder then it could already be.


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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by leon » 13 May 2022 17:12

Stranded Most players will be on holiday now


Will they notice the difference?

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by windermereROYAL » 16 May 2022 18:57

60% suck it :D

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 16 May 2022 19:15

windermereROYAL 60% suck it :D


Can hardly blame them really, it's not exactly an appointment to inspire, but we see where it takes us from here. I'm one of the one's who put in as well.

Interestingly, we were 5 points above the bottom 3 when Ince arrived, we finished 4 points above the dotted line at the end of the season. Ah, stats without context.

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by From Despair To Where? » 16 May 2022 21:25

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Snowflake Royal No, you obviously wouldn't, because that's a change in fortunes mid-season occurring when a change is made. Typically you have a long run of poor results followed by q short term increase.


In principle then, it's not really that much different to Pauno replacing Bowen. A poor-ish run of results at the end of the season before, followed by a short term increase at the beginning of the season after. As I say, you do not credit the predecessor for the new manager changing the results of the club, be it short, medium or long term.

No, it's really different.



Looking at Pauno, I think you can highlight those first 7 or 8 games as anomalous to the rest of his time in charge and that's perfectly reasonable but I don't really subscribe to this whole thing of attributing results to a previous or next manager, although I'm not trying to suggest you were doing that. You have a clear start and finish point to a manager's tenure. I see no legitimate reason to play around with it.

As you say, it's nearly always done to skew the analysis to a predetermined conclusion.


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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by Snowball » 19 May 2022 11:46

From Despair To Where?
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YorkshireRoyal99
In principle then, it's not really that much different to Pauno replacing Bowen. A poor-ish run of results at the end of the season before, followed by a short term increase at the beginning of the season after. As I say, you do not credit the predecessor for the new manager changing the results of the club, be it short, medium or long term.

No, it's really different.



Looking at Pauno, I think you can highlight those first 7 or 8 games as anomalous to the rest of his time in charge and that's perfectly reasonable but I don't really subscribe to this whole thing of attributing results to a previous or next manager, although I'm not trying to suggest you were doing that. You have a clear start and finish point to a manager's tenure. I see no legitimate reason to play around with it.

As you say, it's nearly always done to skew the analysis to a predetermined conclusion.


Ideally we would have a set of rules.

If a manager has pre-season, then X games, there is no issue, surely?

Every game is 100% down to him. No Manager ever starts with zero players and no club history.



Conversely,

If a manager was sacked at 5 to 3 on a Saturday and another employed at 4 minutes to three, to say that the performance is down to the second manager would be BONKERS, surely?

'I''m pretty sure, way back, the consensus was "after six games it's the new guy's fault."


First season Pauno had two excellent players in Olise, and Richards. We only have to see how each of the has done since. He also had the benefit of Joao scoring goals for fun, and, for the first eight games, the Rhino-Laurent Defensive midfield was awesome.

It's a bit weird to say eight wins and a draw is ANOMALOUS. Imagine if Ince had started like that and I tried to suggest it was "anomalous".


Pauno had a few things going for him last season and THIS season he had a massive mountain to climb, embargoes, the threat of points deductions, a crippling injury list. Consider for example, how many kids he was forced to played versus how many Ince was forced to play.

Ince had a better squad than Pauno this season, categorically so, and overall, his ppg was only marginally better than Pauno's (yeah, the last three games MIGHT be an anomaly...

For me the idea that Ince could have made much of a difference between the Preston win and Birmingham is unlikely. The players had to travel from Preston, rest Sunday, at least. I suspect Ince had 1.5 training sessions, the second fairly light (Tuesday) before the game. Is that REALLY enough to turn a team around?

If you say "yes" then explain the next three games which were poor defeats.

It wouldn't be difficult to say something like, "It takes half-a-dozen training sessions to genuinely impact a team". I'm not saying it IS 6, or 5 or 7 or a week, or ten days... but is it unreasonable to say, it takes SOME time, and agree on that?

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by Snowball » 19 May 2022 11:49

Example

Manager loves mid-season

All games up to his leaving are down to Manager 1


Ignore the next 2 games (or 3, whatever, but agree a set number) (or a set time like one week/ten days)

The WLD should not be ascribed to EITHER manager



Then, after that, everything is down to Manager 2

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by From Despair To Where? » 19 May 2022 12:06

I think you're both missing the point. Statistics is a simple analysis of data. Putting conditions that are subjective and open to interpretation makes a mockery of that and putting a hair splitting scenario with a probability of happening of zero as an example does nothing to change that.

Maybe there was an uplift in performance becauee the players had an inkling Pauno was going? I don't know and frankly, I don't care.

The day that Pauno left and the day that Ince started is unarguable fact, everything else is presumptive waffle.

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by paultheroyal » 19 May 2022 12:11

YorkshireRoyal99
windermereROYAL 60% suck it :D


Can hardly blame them really, it's not exactly an appointment to inspire, but we see where it takes us from here. I'm one of the one's who put in as well.

Interestingly, we were 5 points above the bottom 3 when Ince arrived, we finished 4 points above the dotted line at the end of the season. Ah, stats without context.


and without Ince we could of been bottom... who knows - but bottomline is job was to keep us up and thats what he has done.

Huddersfield finished 20th last season with manager they have in post now - we can hope for the same but i am sure we would take a season of mid table.

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by URZZZZ » 19 May 2022 12:19

From Despair To Where? I think you're both missing the point. Statistics is a simple analysis of data. Putting conditions that are subjective and open to interpretation makes a mockery of that and putting a hair splitting scenario with a probability of happening of zero as an example does nothing to change that.

Maybe there was an uplift in performance becauee the players had an inkling Pauno was going? I don't know and frankly, I don't care.

The day that Pauno left and the day that Ince started is unarguable fact, everything else is presumptive waffle.


This

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by Snowflake Royal » 19 May 2022 12:29

URZZZZ
From Despair To Where? I think you're both missing the point. Statistics is a simple analysis of data. Putting conditions that are subjective and open to interpretation makes a mockery of that and putting a hair splitting scenario with a probability of happening of zero as an example does nothing to change that.

Maybe there was an uplift in performance becauee the players had an inkling Pauno was going? I don't know and frankly, I don't care.

The day that Pauno left and the day that Ince started is unarguable fact, everything else is presumptive waffle.


This

Yeah, it's commentary and context around the stats, not the stats themselves.

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Re: Do you want Ince to stay?

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 19 May 2022 12:34

Snowflake Royal
URZZZZ
From Despair To Where? I think you're both missing the point. Statistics is a simple analysis of data. Putting conditions that are subjective and open to interpretation makes a mockery of that and putting a hair splitting scenario with a probability of happening of zero as an example does nothing to change that.

Maybe there was an uplift in performance becauee the players had an inkling Pauno was going? I don't know and frankly, I don't care.

The day that Pauno left and the day that Ince started is unarguable fact, everything else is presumptive waffle.


This

Yeah, it's commentary and context around the stats, not the stats themselves.


That's potentially the subjective parts of it though.

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