have we got an up to date out of contract thread for 2023?

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Personally I'd find it too hard to do that exercise because it depends on unknowns like wages and whether we can identify replacements.

Dann, Long, and Moore are pretty obvious "gos", unless they're willing to agree below-average wages.

Joao is better than anyone else we are likely to get in, but would probably receive an offer we can't keep up with. Probably similar from Meite.

Lumley is not up to this level and should be the first one out the door. Loum, Hendrick, and Fornah are good enough, but WCBAP - and while they're quite different players, not sure it makes sense to have both Hendrick and Hutchinson as geriatric midfielders. Rahman might be the best we can do in his position, but he's rarely lived up to his reputation and wouldn't warrant anything close to his Chelsea wages. Hoilett has looked very useful this season and we can certainly get another year out of him.

Tetek's injuries are a concern, but he's still very young, cheap, and has looked good in those occasional appearances.

Lumley, Rotherham away aside, has been one of our best performers. He’s definitely won us more points than he’s lost. Has made some really good saves to keep us in games recently, and I hope that we offer him a contract in the summer. Not sure we’ll get anyone much better.

Don't agree that's at all the case.

Holmes and Ince streets ahead of him.

In fact I'd say Lumley is consistently one of our middling performers. And when you look at most the saves he's made, they're routine, and few of the goals he's let in are worldies.

And just for Hound, though I set no stall by it, he's 15th on our player average ratings on whoscored.com @6.46... pretty much the exemplar rating for average performer.

It's also got the all-loved NGW at 20th (out of 28), Ejaria 12th and Hoilett 3rd (all of these not including cups). I think it's just another example of opinions (and stats) in football.

I wouldn't say Lumley has been one of our best performers, but has done a decent job really bar Rotherham away. Would be worth signing him in the summer on a free and for the wages he would cost. If someone better comes up, which there might be, then yes we can pursue them. But is doing well for us in the main.

[paultheroyal]

Providing wages can be matched i believe it is a given that Lumley is here next season. Quality keeper and a real fans favourite.

[Sutekh]

Providing wages can be matched i believe it is a given that Lumley is here next season. Quality keeper and a real fans favourite.

Decent keeper but think fan’s favourite might be stretching it a bit at he moment.

[paultheroyal]

Providing wages can be matched i believe it is a given that Lumley is here next season. Quality keeper and a real fans favourite.

Decent keeper but think fan’s favourite might be stretching it a bit at he moment.

Think he is. Interacts with fans more than we have had in a long time, seems to be replicated, and performing on the pitch to back that up.

[morganb]

Providing wages can be matched i believe it is a given that Lumley is here next season. Quality keeper and a real fans favourite.

Decent keeper but think fan’s favourite might be stretching it a bit at he moment.

Think he is. Interacts with fans more than we have had in a long time, seems to be replicated, and performing on the pitch to back that up.

I'd agree he's gradually becoming a fans favourite.

He's a wind-up merchant (time wasting, mouthing off at away fans/players/managers) and has the occasional mistake in him, but appears to be well liked by our players/fans - especially after everything that was said by Middlesbrough supporters and the negativity from our fans before he'd even played a game for us.

[Sutekh]

Decent keeper but think fan’s favourite might be stretching it a bit at he moment.

Think he is. Interacts with fans more than we have had in a long time, seems to be replicated, and performing on the pitch to back that up.

I'd agree he's gradually becoming a fans favourite.

He's a wind-up merchant (time wasting, mouthing off at away fans/players/managers) and has the occasional mistake in him, but appears to be well liked by our players/fans - especially after everything that was said by Middlesbrough supporters and the negativity from our fans before he'd even played a game for us.

Sounds like he’s on the way to being absolutely fabulous the. A footballing avenger for the fans.

[Snowflake Royal]

Lumley, Rotherham away aside, has been one of our best performers. He’s definitely won us more points than he’s lost. Has made some really good saves to keep us in games recently, and I hope that we offer him a contract in the summer. Not sure we’ll get anyone much better.

Don't agree that's at all the case.

Holmes and Ince streets ahead of him.

In fact I'd say Lumley is consistently one of our middling performers. And when you look at most the saves he's made, they're routine, and few of the goals he's let in are worldies.

And just for Hound, though I set no stall by it, he's 15th on our player average ratings on whoscored.com @6.46... pretty much the exemplar rating for average performer.

It's also got the all-loved NGW at 20th (out of 28), Ejaria 12th and Hoilett 3rd (all of these not including cups). I think it's just another example of opinions (and stats) in football.

I wouldn't say Lumley has been one of our best performers, but has done a decent job really bar Rotherham away. Would be worth signing him in the summer on a free and for the wages he would cost. If someone better comes up, which there might be, then yes we can pursue them. But is doing well for us in the main.

Smaller sample = less reliable. Ejaria has barely played so utterly worthless. NGW hasn't played much.

I think Hoilett is maligned unfairly, although third is pushing it.

But just more examples of why Hound should put no faith in it and just listen to me.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Don't agree that's at all the case.

Holmes and Ince streets ahead of him.

In fact I'd say Lumley is consistently one of our middling performers. And when you look at most the saves he's made, they're routine, and few of the goals he's let in are worldies.

And just for Hound, though I set no stall by it, he's 15th on our player average ratings on whoscored.com @6.46... pretty much the exemplar rating for average performer.

It's also got the all-loved NGW at 20th (out of 28), Ejaria 12th and Hoilett 3rd (all of these not including cups). I think it's just another example of opinions (and stats) in football.

I wouldn't say Lumley has been one of our best performers, but has done a decent job really bar Rotherham away. Would be worth signing him in the summer on a free and for the wages he would cost. If someone better comes up, which there might be, then yes we can pursue them. But is doing well for us in the main.

Smaller sample = less reliable. Ejaria has barely played so utterly worthless. NGW hasn't played much.

I think Hoilett is maligned unfairly, although third is pushing it.

But just more examples of why Hound should put no faith in it and just listen to me.

Right, but if these players were performing as good as everyone perceives they are e.g. NGW, then they would be higher up the list. The fact that he hasn't featured that much and is towards the bottom end of the list for basically all of our first team members, surely that tells us something about him?

Hoilett isn't 3rd for me. Had a good opening 10 games of the season, was ok/below average when he picked up a couple of minor injuries and pre-World Cup and has been pretty poor since we've come back from the World Cup. I think it's a case of he gets more leeway because he's not an out-and-out wing back, similar with NGW, he gets more leeway because there is less expectation on him rather than an international footballer from Chelsea. And I actually quite like NGW and I think he "should" be used more instead of Rahman.

[URZZZZ]

Hoilett started the season really well, was a really good outlet on the right hand side, took on his man and was able to deliver dangerous crosses whilst having a good understanding with Yiadom. He was superb against Norwich back in October but aside from the odd game here or there, has been a shadow of his former self ever since. Doesn’t seem to break out of a jog anymore and doesn’t take his man on

It’s a difficult one though as Yiadom isn’t up to the role. Wouldn’t be against a simple 4-4-2 with this set of players but we have so many CB’s in the squad that it seems unlikely

[Hound]

Be nice if we had some kid coming through the academy who looks adept in the role and has had a few first team outings

[URZZZZ]

Be nice if we had some kid coming through the academy who looks adept in the role and has had a few first team outings

Just get the impression Ince has little interest in using the youth. The fact that Dann has come back in and overtaken Mbengue who was doing well (and likewise his reluctance to use NGW) suggests exactly that. Azeez not being in the squad on Saturday too even with a lack of goals from the strikers.

Abrefa looks promising but at best he’s fourth choice for the role

[YorkshireRoyal99]

I'm hoping Ince is more open to using the youngsters as/when we get safe, or to a point where we are realistically safe (e.g. we might only be 10 clear after 40 games, but if we sit 12th then we aren't going to drop down).

I can understand why we wouldn't rely on academy prospects mid-season when the pressure is still on and we can't be too complacent of a, increasingly unlikely slide into trouble, but in our situation we can't really take any chances at the minute, it's definitely got to be safety first.

However, I do think there is a point where we have to say, "when are we going to be using the Abrefa's, Azeez's" etc.

[Snowflake Royal]

It's also got the all-loved NGW at 20th (out of 28), Ejaria 12th and Hoilett 3rd (all of these not including cups). I think it's just another example of opinions (and stats) in football.

I wouldn't say Lumley has been one of our best performers, but has done a decent job really bar Rotherham away. Would be worth signing him in the summer on a free and for the wages he would cost. If someone better comes up, which there might be, then yes we can pursue them. But is doing well for us in the main.

Smaller sample = less reliable. Ejaria has barely played so utterly worthless. NGW hasn't played much.

I think Hoilett is maligned unfairly, although third is pushing it.

But just more examples of why Hound should put no faith in it and just listen to me.

Right, but if these players were performing as good as everyone perceives they are e.g. NGW, then they would be higher up the list. The fact that he hasn't featured that much and is towards the bottom end of the list for basically all of our first team members, surely that tells us something about him?

Hoilett isn't 3rd for me. Had a good opening 10 games of the season, was ok/below average when he picked up a couple of minor injuries and pre-World Cup and has been pretty poor since we've come back from the World Cup. I think it's a case of he gets more leeway because he's not an out-and-out wing back, similar with NGW, he gets more leeway because there is less expectation on him rather than an international footballer from Chelsea. And I actually quite like NGW and I think he "should" be used more instead of Rahman.

I think NGW is a likely case of a player with a lesser talent, perhaps who doesn’t look as comfortable in training, being overlooked for a senior talented underachiever who maybe looks good in training, but is full of errors on match day.

The difference between NGW and Rahman's rating is just 0.14, with the obvious point that NGW is younger and stepping up a level, whilst Rahman is older and stepping down.

I also don't agree Hoilett has been poor since the world cup. But then I wouldn’t say he's our third placed performer or put any stock in that rating system. I'd say he's in a pack of 5 or 6 much of a muchness behind Ince and Holmes.

[From Despair To Where?]

I'm hoping Ince is more open to using the youngsters as/when we get safe, or to a point where we are realistically safe (e.g. we might only be 10 clear after 40 games, but if we sit 12th then we aren't going to drop down).

I can understand why we wouldn't rely on academy prospects mid-season when the pressure is still on and we can't be too complacent of a, increasingly unlikely slide into trouble, but in our situation we can't really take any chances at the minute, it's definitely got to be safety first.

However, I do think there is a point where we have to say, "when are we going to be using the Abrefa's, Azeez's" etc.

Might it be the reason He isn't using Azeez is that he's basically been out injured for the past 15 months including another breakdown after a long lay off so wants to make sure he's 100% ready?

Also,in his interview after the Watford game, Abrefa seemed to be suggesting that Ince has s lot of faith in the young players and at present, he's happy with getting on the bench

[YorkshireRoyal99]

I'm hoping Ince is more open to using the youngsters as/when we get safe, or to a point where we are realistically safe (e.g. we might only be 10 clear after 40 games, but if we sit 12th then we aren't going to drop down).

I can understand why we wouldn't rely on academy prospects mid-season when the pressure is still on and we can't be too complacent of a, increasingly unlikely slide into trouble, but in our situation we can't really take any chances at the minute, it's definitely got to be safety first.

However, I do think there is a point where we have to say, "when are we going to be using the Abrefa's, Azeez's" etc.

Might it be the reason He isn't using Azeez is that he's basically been out injured for the past 15 months including another breakdown after a long lay off so wants to make sure he's 100% ready?

Also,in his interview after the Watford game, Abrefa seemed to be suggesting that Ince has s lot of faith in the young players and at present, he's happy with getting on the bench

Yeah that might be the reason with Azeez, ultimately we don't really know, but I'd like to see them getting starts and a few games to build up that experience and see if they are ready.

Abrefa probably would say that in all honesty, but there will be some truth in it. I would just like to see a few players come through because we've been churning out some really good talents over the last few years that we don't really want to be wasting.

[SCIAG]

Personally I'd find it too hard to do that exercise because it depends on unknowns like wages and whether we can identify replacements.

Dann, Long, and Moore are pretty obvious "gos", unless they're willing to agree below-average wages.

Joao is better than anyone else we are likely to get in, but would probably receive an offer we can't keep up with. Probably similar from Meite.

Lumley is not up to this level and should be the first one out the door. Loum, Hendrick, and Fornah are good enough, but WCBAP - and while they're quite different players, not sure it makes sense to have both Hendrick and Hutchinson as geriatric midfielders. Rahman might be the best we can do in his position, but he's rarely lived up to his reputation and wouldn't warrant anything close to his Chelsea wages. Hoilett has looked very useful this season and we can certainly get another year out of him.

Tetek's injuries are a concern, but he's still very young, cheap, and has looked good in those occasional appearances.

Lumley, Rotherham away aside, has been one of our best performers. He’s definitely won us more points than he’s lost. Has made some really good saves to keep us in games recently, and I hope that we offer him a contract in the summer. Not sure we’ll get anyone much better.

Lumley has a post-shot expected goals conceded (i.e. how many goals you would expect him to have conceded based on the quality of the shots he has faced) of 25.5. This compares poorly to the number of goals he has actually conceded, 34. That's the second-biggest unfavourable gap between XG conceded and actual goals conceded in the league.

If you do it on a per 90 basis (which partially corrects for the fact that Lumley has played a lot and had more chance to concede goals than e.g. Bouzanis) then he goes up to fifth worst in the league, conceding 0.37 more goals per 90 than would be expected. Bouzanis is one place ahead of him on 0.33.

Or if you're one of those people who doesn't believe in XG, he's 25th out of the 32 goalkeepers who have made ten appearances for shot save %. Only 62%.

For comparison, last season Nyland conceded 0.08 more goals than expected per 90 and saved 62% of shots. Southwood conceded 0.15 more than expected and saved and saved 66% of shots. And even the atrocious Karl Hein only conceded 0.23 more goals than expected per 90 and saved 68%.

Those are bad numbers, and Lumley makes them look good. The guy is absolute dross.