Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

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Wycombe Royal
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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by Wycombe Royal » 29 Jul 2019 09:21

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My understanding is that Birmingham were also under a soft embargo, but they broke it - hence the 9 point deduction (they bought in Pederson for over 2 mill and didn't sell anybody - previous season they bought 17 mill of players and sold 4 mill). If we breach FFP, but are seen to be trying to do the right thing, we're more likely to be hit with tighter transfer regulations rather than a point deduction.

The football league confirmed that the Pedersen transfer was NOT an aggravating factor in the points deduction. It was only for breaching the sustainability rules.


The EFL tried to prevent Birmingham registering him. They also said the points deduction considering 'all relevant factors'. It's hard to see how it did not play a part, although the rules may not allow additional points to be specifically deducted for wilfully breaching FFP. Obviously signing him increased the degree by which they broke the rules and therefore it would have impacted the deduction in some way.
I would imagine any club is potentially at risk given no one can be sure how their finances will play out this season. A good cup run, a poor league season, a sponsor going bust etc etc.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47667742

The panel decided that the signing of defender Kristian Pedersen in the summer of 2018 should "not be treated as an aggravating factor" in the case, which could have incurred a greater penalty for Birmingham.

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by Stranded » 29 Jul 2019 10:03

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Wycombe Royal The football league confirmed that the Pedersen transfer was NOT an aggravating factor in the points deduction. It was only for breaching the sustainability rules.


The EFL tried to prevent Birmingham registering him. They also said the points deduction considering 'all relevant factors'. It's hard to see how it did not play a part, although the rules may not allow additional points to be specifically deducted for wilfully breaching FFP. Obviously signing him increased the degree by which they broke the rules and therefore it would have impacted the deduction in some way.
I would imagine any club is potentially at risk given no one can be sure how their finances will play out this season. A good cup run, a poor league season, a sponsor going bust etc etc.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47667742

The panel decided that the signing of defender Kristian Pedersen in the summer of 2018 should "not be treated as an aggravating factor" in the case, which could have incurred a greater penalty for Birmingham.


To be fair, that was the decision of the Independent Tribunal and not the EFL. The EFL were pushing for more points to be removed due to the signing, they really weren't happy as, as the article says, Brum were told on May 2nd 2018 they couldn't sign players but they did anyway due to a "mis-understanding" on Birmingham's behalf - which they soon backtracked.

The EFL just decided against appealing the number of points deducted. Given there were only 8 games left of the season at that point, that was probably a sensible idea rather than have it rumbling on for another few weeks.

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by paddy20 » 29 Jul 2019 17:32

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No. Simply put. No.


Personally still think we could easily have lost a lot more last season. EFL would not be able to take action on a forecast as it could never be legally binding until the official audited accounts are published. If we only lost £10m last season we would have a lot more leeway this season to spend some money as (based on at £10m loss last season) we could still lose £12m and be ok. There is no sign we are prepared to spend any money at all which tends to suggest the losses for last year are much higher. We may have just about survived the 9 pt deduction this year but we have to have a massive turnaround this season to get to a break even situation. I think we will have to sell either Moore or Swift or perhaps Loader & Olise in January if not before to avoid it.


They can and do take action on the forecast as it is part of the rules all clubs have signed up for. The audited accounts aren't due until March 2020 which would make waiting pretty pointless. If a club grossly underplays a loss in a forecast then it will only come back to bite them on the arse and I'm pretty sure that would be classed as cooking the books and see a harsher penalty handed down - doubt the PL or FA would take to it kindly if a club got promoted.


.

If we forecast a loss of 10m last season then yes our FFP result this year would be a 27m loss, so comfortably meeting the FFP requirements - however, 10m plus 20.9m means we start the 2019/20 assessment at -31m so we only have 8m to play with - if we've lost more then the leeway for the next assessment is clearly less. However, for the embargo to have been lifted and for us to have signed any players at all (free or loan) both the EFL and us must be comfortable that we stand an even chance of meeting the next assessment.

Lets look at what has come in/out:

Wages freed up for about 10 players
Fee for Bodvarsson
Sell on for Stacey
New Sponsorship
Fees for Bacuna and Illori in Jan will help this years forecast (lets say circa 3.5m for those two)

We may still see more players leave on loan/perm to free up more wages and we may see a fee or two. We have brought in - 2 players whose combined wage will be much lower than those who have gone and for the loans, the parent clubs are playing all (or the majority) of wages. We probably have scope to bring 1 or 2 more players on loan, free or for a very small fee.

None of this would be happening without EFL blessing, so we are not in any danger of losing points this season. For us to have breached FFP this year, we will have had to forecast a loss that will mean we are already over the restriction for next - so we would have already sold Moore, Barrow or anyone else we could get decent money for and would probably be fielding close to a full academy 11. The fact that we are not and have brought in some players to enhance the best academy players is a good sign. If, and it's a big if at this stage, come January we feel we are in dangerous waters then expect us to try and ship out a player or two for a decent fee.

The Championship is a different beast this year, clubs simply aren't spending money unless they have sold a player up to the PL. Brentford have spent a lot but pretty much all financed by 1 or 2 big sales. Bristol City sold a player for about 13m and have used this money to buy - without selling or a parachute payment - cash deals will be much fewer in number going forward.

So in short, relax - we won't see a points deduction this season and are doing all we can to ensure we meet the requirements for 2019/20, to avoid a penalty during the 2020/21 season.


Some very good points here and I agree with you regarding this season and there being no points deduction. However I believe we came very very close to exceeding the loss allowed of the cumulative £39m, i'e a loss for 18/19 of £22m. (39-21+4 = 22). The reason I say this is as follows;
1. Our revenue was predicted to be about the same as 17/18 for 18/19 although I think it will be slightly lower
2. Although our players in and out will show a small profit for last season, the loss in player trading in 17/18 of 8.2m was largely cancelled out by the purchase of the stadium and a lease back by the owners for 6.5m
3. Although wages may have gone down a bit last season the real savings will be expected this season

I think therefore we will have achieved a loss short of the 22m but not by very much at all. The big question then is how on earth do we turn a loss of an estimated 20m into a small profit or break even. We need to find saving of around 20m in one season!! Its a massive ask and that can only come from reduced wages and big player sales. I think only about 5 teams achieved it in 2017 and probably most of them had parachute payments or a very low wage structure.

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by Snowflake Royal » 29 Jul 2019 18:02

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Wycombe Royal The football league confirmed that the Pedersen transfer was NOT an aggravating factor in the points deduction. It was only for breaching the sustainability rules.


The EFL tried to prevent Birmingham registering him. They also said the points deduction considering 'all relevant factors'. It's hard to see how it did not play a part, although the rules may not allow additional points to be specifically deducted for wilfully breaching FFP. Obviously signing him increased the degree by which they broke the rules and therefore it would have impacted the deduction in some way.
I would imagine any club is potentially at risk given no one can be sure how their finances will play out this season. A good cup run, a poor league season, a sponsor going bust etc etc.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47667742

The panel decided that the signing of defender Kristian Pedersen in the summer of 2018 should "not be treated as an aggravating factor" in the case, which could have incurred a greater penalty for Birmingham.

An aggravating factor is a specific thing. It doesn't mean it wasn't part of the decision. Just that it wasn't used as a separate factor to bump the penalty into a different tier. It could still have influenced the penalty applied within a tier for the base offence, if there is a range as standard. IMO.

If the base penalty is fixed at a flat points deduction, rather than a standard range, it would have no effect.

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by tidus_mi2 » 29 Jul 2019 19:06

In a sense, giving Brum a points deduction, despite it not really affecting their league standing, has had the desired effect of making clubs pay attention to FFP. My biggest gripe right now is the increasing financial gap between the PL and the EFL, I actually blame a large part of that on the EFL team that negotiate the TV deal, surely with large clubs like Leeds, Derby, Forest, Wednesday and previous history of having clubs like West Ham, Newcastle, Villa etc in the division, surely the EFL should be able to negotiate a better deal.


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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by Stranded » 30 Jul 2019 08:11

tidus_mi2 In a sense, giving Brum a points deduction, despite it not really affecting their league standing, has had the desired effect of making clubs pay attention to FFP. My biggest gripe right now is the increasing financial gap between the PL and the EFL, I actually blame a large part of that on the EFL team that negotiate the TV deal, surely with large clubs like Leeds, Derby, Forest, Wednesday and previous history of having clubs like West Ham, Newcastle, Villa etc in the division, surely the EFL should be able to negotiate a better deal.


Sky will only pay a value that they can get back in advertising etc. If Sky don't take the FL who will?

We've seen other companies try and fail to market the FL as a product in it's own right and there isn't really a big enough TV market for it. A lot of viewers who say they are football fans only really watch the PL, CL and maybe the cups - they will dip into the FL only if there is nothing else on.

Sky know that they are essentially the only show in town for the EFL so will always pay the bare minimum - the only way this changes is if a big name such as Amazon decide that it is worth it as a loss leader to prepare themselves for getting a bigger slice of the PL or CL pie in the future.

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by One87One » 30 Jul 2019 08:24

Regarding income, it sounds like Tiago Ilori could be on the move again and we still own 40% of him. I didn’t know that but there’s summit about it online today.

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by morganb » 30 Jul 2019 09:08

I think there may be a bit of crossover with the posts on the 'Are we screwed?' thread regarding our owner's Belgian club and possibly financial issues (releasing players, unpaid wages):

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=185982&start=80#p4815644

Hope this doesn't spill over to affect Reading

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by One87One » 30 Jul 2019 09:25

So the owners other club KSV Roeselare haven’t been paying their players, and Tevreden hadn’t received a pay check for over 5 months before walking out last week.

The Chinese are selling the club but they haven’t gone about it the right way. I hope they don’t wash their hands with us like that in the future.


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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by Stranded » 30 Jul 2019 09:36

One87One So the owners other club KSV Roeselare haven’t been paying their players, and Tevreden hadn’t received a pay check for over 5 months before walking out last week.

The Chinese are selling the club but they haven’t gone about it the right way. I hope they don’t wash their hands with us like that in the future.


You would hope not. Shouldn't be handline Roselare the way they are but the difference in profile between a Championship side and a 2nd Division Belgian side is huge. If we were to slip down a division though, that could be more cause for concern.

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by El Diablo » 30 Jul 2019 13:01

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One87One So the owners other club KSV Roeselare haven’t been paying their players, and Tevreden hadn’t received a pay check for over 5 months before walking out last week.

The Chinese are selling the club but they haven’t gone about it the right way. I hope they don’t wash their hands with us like that in the future.


You would hope not. Shouldn't be handline Roselare the way they are but the difference in profile between a Championship side and a 2nd Division Belgian side is huge. If we were to slip down a division though, that could be more cause for concern.


Tevreden didnt walk , he was pushed by KSV's new owners. I would take anything that Cowboy states in Social media with a (massive) pinch of salt.

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by genome » 30 Jul 2019 13:11

You will still see the odd club take a gamble to try and get promotion, as say Villa did last couple of years, but they will do so knowing that if they miss out they will be hit hard as a result. Would be a calculated risk.


This is why I dislike FFP. If you cheat successfully then there are no consequences.

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by savage 4 england » 30 Jul 2019 13:14

I think we should just go for it. oxf*rd the 9 point fine, when we have 100.


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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by Roes » 02 Aug 2019 18:44

One87One So the owners other club KSV Roeselare haven’t been paying their players, and Tevreden hadn’t received a pay check for over 5 months before walking out last week.

The Chinese are selling the club but they haven’t gone about it the right way. I hope they don’t wash their hands with us like that in the future.


The players were paid late, but they were paid. At least this is what I was being told by a player from Roeselare.

And according to local Belgian media Hawken isn't leaving the club but there will come extra investors.

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Re: Are we still heading for a 9pt deduction?

by maffff » 02 Aug 2019 22:17

Roes
One87One So the owners other club KSV Roeselare haven’t been paying their players, and Tevreden hadn’t received a pay check for over 5 months before walking out last week.

The Chinese are selling the club but they haven’t gone about it the right way. I hope they don’t wash their hands with us like that in the future.


The players were paid late, but they were paid. At least this is what I was being told by a player from Roeselare.

And according to local Belgian media Hawken isn't leaving the club but there will come extra investors.


Once, same time our issues happened. According to a Roeselare fan I talk to on twitter. It's Xiu Li and Bin (Yongge's son / Chief Exec of Beijing Renhe) on the board there. Another club in the league didn't pay players for 3 months and have received sanctions, so that's clearly not true.

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