Millsy
The concern - and I don't necessarily subscribe to it but I am mindful of it it - is that it's an issue of trend. Are those first 8 games really "his success" and something we can legitimately spread out? Or was it a mixture of very good luck (look at our shots/goals - all pundits could see what was coming), typical new manager honeymoon period, momentum, Joao's magic spell of Kebe-ness?
This is why people are saying "take out the first 8 games" because there are two distinct Readings we're talking about. It's not as simple as just spreading those games out. If they were actually spread out throughout the season we'd be fine with it.
Millsy
The concern - and I don't necessarily subscribe to it but I am mindful of it it - is that it's an issue of trend. Are those first 8 games really "his success" and something we can legitimately spread out? Or was it a mixture of very good luck (look at our shots/goals - all pundits could see what was coming), typical new manager honeymoon period, momentum, Joao's magic spell of Kebe-ness?
This is why people are saying "take out the first 8 games" because there are two distinct Readings we're talking about. It's not as simple as just spreading those games out. If they were actually spread out throughout the season we'd be fine with it.
In that first eight, as far as I recollect, we were ultra-defensive, and apart from one game we "surrendered" the first 30 minutes and other sides had a lot of ball. Some of them should have scored first (Watford, for example) and lowly Colchester looked great (and scored) before we managed to impose ourselves.
I for one posted that I was worried that some team would eventually put 3 goals on us before we started to play. We were calling it "rope a dope" remember, classic Muhammud Ali in the ring.
Then the xG pundits started saying we couldn't POSSIBLY keep it up, that "the law of averages" (or whatever) would bring us down to earth "eventually".
And, sadly, Pauno heard it and started to allow Laurent and Rhino to be more expansive. We looked better going forward but we started shipping goals. We may have won at Blackburn (a freak game, IMO) but we did ship 2 goals and in the next game we lost at Coventry, shipping 3 goals. Our 5-game goals conceded was 2-3-3-3-4 (even tho' we won the first)
Over the first 7 games we tied up the centre but conceded crosses which Morrison-Moore just lapped up. But (I think) Pauno was listening to experts. I think we should have continued the ultra-safe method until it was clearly failing
Time of Reading Goals45-56-75 Colchester
--------------------------------- Luton
40-45 Derby
67-76 Barnsley
47-65 Cardiff
42 Watford
------------------------------- BORO
63 Wycombe
Just look at the Reading goals as a group
40-42-45-45
47-56-63-65-67-75-76
Average 55 minutes
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
and First Goal?
40
42
45
47
63
67
51st Minute+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Then came the Blackburn game. Our first goal was a freak in a few seconds but we were obviously “going for it” in a way we hadn’t gone for it in earlier games. Goals on 1-14-17 but CONCEDING on 2 and 65. Blackburn had 13 shots, 6 on target to our 5 (4). We clinched it with Joao (again) and late (again).
The mould had been broken and at Coventry the opening was “frantic” and end to end, we conceded in the 22nd and the rest is history. (Aluko started!)
We hen lost 0-3, 0-3, and 4-2 away
Home to away-specialists Preston we had 17 shots (5 OT) and drew a blank. Preston had 5 on target and scored 3.
We tend to remember scores and imagine we were outplayed at home by Stoke. In fact we bossed it (ie we didn’t sit back) and Stoke defended resolutely and pinched two goals on the break. Then on 90 Gibson gave away a very soft goal.
In earlier games we had won with far less chances (and a silly xG). Now the tables were turned. We had 15 shots, 5 on target (as many as at Blackburn) but failed to score. Stoke scored with all 3 of their shots on target.
Then came Bournemouth where we attacked well but imploded at the back.
Seems to me Pauno had a model, ultra-defensive, TWO quite-rigid DMs, soak up pressure, play on the break, creep into the game after 30 minutes, maybe get a goal before HT, but win the second halves.
That worked perfectly for the first 6 games but relied on a very high conversion rate.
When we became more expansive we started shipping goals and the bubble was burst.
We are rarely good at chasing games, we don’t have pacy wingers and don’t do well against sides who park the bus. We had a system which wasn’t pretty but was getting results, changed, shipped a lot of goals, and lost our way.
There IS a reason why we have to separate out the first eight games. We played a totally different way. Pauno lost his nerve, we became more expansive and showed we DIDN’T have a fantastic defense, so we slipped to being a mid-table team with a couple of stars who scored individual goals to elevate us to about 10th (7th because of the start)